Jan 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast
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The EIU has updated its economic forecast for January. Highlights since December include: raising GDP growth forecasts for both the US and euro zone, China's slowing economy, and commodity price and demand outlook.
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Jan 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast
- 1. Global economic forecast January 17th 2011
- 10. 16 16 16 15 12 + Improved confidence prompts a stronger rebound in demand - Developed economies fall into a deflationary spiral - New asset bubbles burst, creating renewed financial turbulence - Tensions over currency manipulation lead to a rise in protectionism - Major sovereigns default as public debt surges
- 11. 10 10 10 9 9 - Emerging-market inflation surges, forcing fierce policy tightening - Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest - The euro zone breaks up - The Chinese economy crashes - The global economy experiences a double-dip recession
Notes de l'éditeur
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009 as it suffers from a massive drop in external demand, the impact of the global financial crisis and the unwinding of domestic imbalances. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009 and some restocking, after the extensive drawdown of inventories in the first half 2009.
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
- Although we are forecasting steady growth in oil demand in 2011-13, ample supply and capacity will prevent significant price gains. While our forecast suggests markedly lower prices in 2009-13 than in 2008, they are still relatively high in both historical and real terms.
- Policy rates in the largest industrial economies are forecast to remain at ultra-loose levels at least until the end of 2010. Concerns not to inflate fresh bubbles will persuade the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) to start to tighten policy from 2011.