1. Connecting the Dots between Demographics, Workforce and Immigration Eddie Aldrete

2. Fear and Loathing

3. Border Fencing 298.5 Miles of Vehicle Fencing 365.3 Miles of Pedestrian Fencing 20.26 Miles of Levee Fencing 684.06 Total Miles Complete

4. Secure Fence Act of 2006

5. Current Fertility Rates

7. Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.

8. Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.) US 61.7 US 67.1 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.

9. Current Fertility Rates

11. % of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040* Sources: U.S. Census Counts, and State Data Center Projections, 0.5 Scenario

12. February 14, 2009 ‘For the First Time, Hispanic Children are the Majority in Texas’ First Grade Classrooms’ 130,000 fewer white children than 10 years ago Hispanic children dominate 1st grade classes (50.2%) White children now fewer than 1/3 of 1st graders Current white population of 11.5 million is near its’ peak and will begin to shrink as boomers die off Result would be the same if all undocumented were removed and no future inward migration allowed

13. Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000

14. 14

15. Congressional Budget Office “Unless native fertility rates increase, it is likely that most of the growth in the U.S. labor force will come from immigration by the middle of the century.”

16. Industry Shortages MANUFACTURING RESTAURANT / FOOD SERVICE HEALTHCARE

18. Operators

19. Craft workers

20. Distributors

21. TechniciansManufacturing Shortages National Association of Manufacturers

22. Over the next decade: Restaurant job growth -- 14% Native-born US workforce -- 10% Growth of 16 to 24 year-olds -- 0.3%. Restaurant Shortages National Restaurant Association 2009 Restaurant Industry Forecast December 19, 2009

26. ‘Doctors Without Borders’TexasTribune.org 40% of 1,500 fast-tracked, newly licensed doctors over the last 3 years, were trained at international med schools.

27. Alfredo Quiñones(1987)

28. Dr. QBrain Surgeon & Associate Professor of Neurosurgery and OncologyJohns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD

30. Former AF Sec. Michael Wynne We have a “geriatric” fleet that has to be replaced or it will put the Air Force “out of business.”

31. January 21, 2008 ‘U.S. aerospace industry facing labor shortage’ 40%eligible to retire by 2012

32. Boomer Retirements & Local Police More than 80% of nation’s 17,000 law enforcement agencies have vacancies that can’t be filled (Police Chief Magazine, October 2006, vol 73, no 10) Law Enforcement shortages leave states without troopers Texas Sunset Advisory Commission report cites “critical manpower shortage at Texas DPS. ‘FBI drug standard lowered for hiring’ Current user vs. past drug use (USA Today 08/02/07) In order to meet recruiting goals, agencies are making exceptions for: Bad credit Poor performance on physical exams Drug history Prior gang activity Failed polygraph exams (Texas DPS)

33. GAO ReportOLDER WORKERS: Federal Agencies Face Challenges

34. Help Wanted: U.S. Border Patrol 14,000 BP agents in 2007 14,000 additional agents in appropriations bill 7 times as many grads in BP Academy in a year is a recipe for corruption

35. Cocaine Cowboys

36. Police Officer Recruitment: A Public Sector Crisis Police Chief Magazine October 2006

37. Trooper Shortage Cuts Training Time “The Department of Public Safety has 400 vacancies and is offering experienced law officers a chance to become troopers in just two months.” Associated Press - 02/26/2010

38. Texas Hunting Industry In 2009, Texas lost approximately $346,000when boomers turned 65 and paid reduced license fees. State Targeting Girls to Boost Ranks of Hunters Dallas Morning News June 14, 2008

39. ‘Felons helped Army meet recruitment goal’ San Antonio Express-News 10/12/2007 1,620 MORAL WAIVERS ISSUED IN 2007

40. February 14, 2009 ‘U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship’ Staff Sgt. Alejandro Campos, in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, became a citizen after joining the Army.

41. Most Common Questions Why do immigrants come? Do they compete with natives for American jobs? Do we really need immigrants with so many unemployed Americans?

42. Mexican Migration Follows Trends in U.S. Employment Rate

43. Apprehensions – A Function of Labor Demand(Detrended employment lagged 6 m) Thousands, SA Thousands, SA Employment Apprehensions Source: BLS, DHS

44. Real-time Migration, U.S. and Mexican Business Cycles Thousands, SA Migrant apprehensions Source: CBP, Department of Homeland Security

45. Homeward Bound

46. Increasingly Bimodal Education Distribution (Foreign-born Workers) Percent Source: Ottaviano & Peri, 2005

47. Harry S. Dent Economist and Demographer

48. U. S. Joint Forces Command “Russia needs to cope with a rate of population decline that literally has no historical precedent in the absence of pandemic.”

49. ‘A Holiday From Russia With Love’

50. Japan

51. U. S. Joint Forces Command “Japan’s population will fall from 128 million to approximately 117 million in the 2030’s…from the collapse of their birth rate.”

52. ‘Pickers Are Few, And Growers Blame Congress’ New York Times 10/22/2006 ‘As Farmworkers Become Scarcer, Congress Dithers’ Washington Post 12/4/2007

53. ‘Short on Labor, Farmers in U.S. Shift to Mexico’ 12 U.S. Agribusinesses Have Moved to Mexico11,000 jobs outsourced

54. Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)

55. Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada) Microsoft Multiplier Effect: 4 : 1 For every job Microsoft creates, four other related jobs are created in the Washington state economy. 1,500 Microsoft jobs outsourced 6,000 additional jobs outsourced?

57. $ 2.6 Million NASCAR Sponsorship

58. Mexico’s Birth Dearth

59. Blockade Hold-the-Line Gatekeeper Safeguard Rio Grande Triple Strike Return to Sender Jump Start Full Court Press Stonegarden Gunrunner Armas Cruzadas Southern Border Operations (Since 1993)

60. Texas Border Operations Operation Linebacker Operation Border Star Operation Wrangler Operation Texas Border Watch The Daily Show on webcams

61. Between 1986 and 2002 Increased Border Patrol’s budget by a factor of ten. Tripled the number of Border Patrol agents Spent eight times as many hours patrolling the border

62. The Results Undocumented population doubled Death rate for border crossings tripled Probability of apprehension dropped significantly Per-apprehension cost has risen 476% Circularity has stopped

63. Ronald Reagan -- The Voice of Reason

64. Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas

65. Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas

66. View from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico

67. Lines & Delays = Economic Harm Delays impact “Just-in-Time” facilities such as Toyota Assembly Plant in San Antonio

68. Trends in International TravelU.S. welcomed 2 million fewer overseas visitors in 2007 than 2000 www.poweroftravel.org Travel Industry Association of America

69. Trends in International Travel Travel around world + 28% compared to travel to USA - 8% www.poweroftravel.org Travel Industry Association of America

70. Trends in International Travel45 MillionFewer Visitors Between 2000 and 2007 www.poweroftravel.org Travel Industry Association & US Commerce Dept

71. ‘Most Popular Soccer Team in the U.S.: Mexico?’ 63,227 Charlotte, NC 75,000 Meadowlands, NJ 90,000 Pasadena, CA

72. Carrizo Cane Along Rio Grande River

73. April 6, 2007 ‘Border officials fight cover-providing weeds’ “Carrizo cane, the invasive, non-native plant grows stalks up to 18 feet tall and can get so dense it makes roads impassable.”

74. Can You Spot the Border Patrol?

75. Carrizo Cane (before)

76. Carrizo Cane (after)

77. Essential to our Economy

78. Solutions An immigration system that works Focus on human mobility Balance security with facilitation Smart borders Floating visa caps Implement US Chamber’s Infrastructure Initiative for roadways and railways Restore America’s image around the world