An explanation of Eric Garland's theory of how modern executives need to marry competitive intelligence with futures studies in order to make robust strategies. For more check out https://www.competitivefutures.com/data-lab and http://www.ericgarland.co/keynote-speaker-executive-educator/

1. Eric Garland: Future Intelligence What Every Executive Should Know About Future Trends – And How to Profit from Them

2. “ The closer you are to a position of responsibility, the further away the future can seem” -Erik Peterson Center for Strategic International Studies

3. Today’s Agenda Discover strategic forecasting and how it can help you as an executive Learn to turn disparate trends into scenarios Design intelligence systems that allow for long-term and short term perspective

5. The Future Intelligence Cycle 5 – 20 year view World of trends, forces and possibilities Problems perceived, decisions made New approaches undertaken Execution of strategy is measured 1 – 5 year plan Making the case to change today’s practices

6. I know I need to study the future to make good strategy… … but it’s got to be actionable. What Does Future Intelligence Look Like?

7. The Tragic Case of the Record Industry Reckless teens, dangerous new technologies, and helpless record executives

8. Meet Brianna LaHara Honor student Music lover New Yorker

9. Meet Brianna LaHara Honor student Music lover Sued Sept. 3, 2003 by the Record Industry Association of America for around $150,000 per illegally downloaded song New Yorker

10. Sales plummeting Terrible PR New business models Could we have anticipated this? The State of the Music Industry in 2003

11. For a different perspective, let’s go back to 1991 Warsaw Pact ends Gulf War I Apartheid ends Magic Johnson HIV+ “ Motorist” Rodney King Vermont almost secedes

12. Also happening in 1991: Tim Berners-Lee outlines vision for the “World Wide Web,” based on an idea he came up with at CERN in 1980. Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) holds hearings for the “National High-Performance Computer Technology Act,” adding $1 billion in federal support for “The Internet.” Compact discs, a digital music medium, surpass tape cassettes for the first time.

13. There are a number of ways this digital thing could turn out. Not all good. What could you have told management in 1991? Surely we haven’t got that much to worry about.

15. You never make strategic plans alone. The future is an interconnected system of trends.

16. Systemic view of the music industry Artist development Consumer tastes Distribution Markets & Channels Competing Forms of Entertainment

23. It won’t change tomorrow, but we should think about these transitions now! If they had looked ahead, maybe record companies wouldn’t have ended up suing their customers… Wow, you’re right - let’s embrace this change! Great strategic thinking!

26. Questions!

27. Executive Education – Consulting – Research - Speaking Eric Garland http://www.competitivefutures.com [email_address] 1317 F St. NW Suite 920 Washington, DC 20004 (202) 508-1496