Turks & Caicos Islands 2012 General Election results analysis prepared by E. Jay Saunders

1. Turks & Caicos Islands 2012 Election Results: The Story behind the numbers.
By E. Jay Saunders
By now everyone is aware that the PNP won the 2012 General Elections 8 seats to the PDM 7 seats. PNP
won 6 seats at the Electoral District level and 2 at the All Island level compared to the PDM 4 seats at the
Electoral District level and 3 at the All Island level.
Although the PNP won the Government, it only obtained 44.9% of the votes cast at the Electoral District
level – i.e. the Popular Vote – which was 331 votes less than the PDM, which got 50.1% of the Popular
Vote. For reference, the PPP got 4.9% of the Popular Vote and the sole Independent candidate got 0.1%.
Together, this brings the total number of votes cast at the Electoral District level to 6,311 – not including
the 41 rejected ballots.
Where the numbers tells a fascinating story is at the All Island level where 30,428 votes were cast for
the following 11 candidates (in the order of highest to lowest):
1. Sharlene Cartwright Robinson (PDM): 3,437
2. Rufus Ewing (PNP): 3,290
3. Derek Taylor (PDM): 3,197
4. Washington Misick (PNP): 3,135
5. Josephine Connolly (PDM): 3,057
6. Carlos Simons (PNP): 2,945
7. Oswald Skippings (PDM): 2,902
8. Samuel Harvey (PDM): 2,893
9. Wayne Garland (PNP): 2,814
10. Royal Robinson (PNP): 2,718
11. Oswald Simons (IND): 235
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2. Before the elections were held it was widely speculated that Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson would get the
highest tally based on her popularity and the amount of non-PDM supporters who were publicly stating
that they would give her a vote. And based on the final results, she achieved that by obtaining 3,437 of
the total votes cast; thereby giving her the #1 spot and 147 votes ahead of 2nd place finisher Rufus
Ewing, who got 3,290 votes.
However, to truly understand the impact that Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson and the other All Island
candidates individually had on the election, we need to see how much cross party appeal each
candidate had, and if any candidate helped or hurt his/her party.
To get behind the numbers, I created a Popularity Index with the assumptions that: a) If a candidate is
highly popular and everyone voted for him/her then their vote tally should equal to the total number of
persons who voted successfully at Electoral District level, which was 6,311 thereby giving the candidate
a 100% Popularity Index rating, and b) To help their party an All Island candidate would need to get a
higher percentage in the Popularity Index than his/her party got in the Popular Vote. For example, 3,437
voters cast a vote for Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson out of the 6,311 who voted, which gives her a Popularity
Index rating of (3,437/6,311) = 54.5%. In other words, approximately 55% of those who voted at the
Electoral District level voted for her. Based on the Popularity Index the candidates rank as follows: 1.
Sharlene Cartwright Robinson (PDM): 54.5%, 2. Rufus Ewing (PNP): 52.1%, 3. Derek Taylor (PDM): 50.7%,
4. Washington Misick (PNP): 49.7%, 5. Josephine Connolly (PDM): 48.4%, 6. Carlos Simons (PNP): 46.7%,
7. Oswald Skippings (PDM): 46.0%, 8. Samuel Harvey (PDM): 45.8%, 9. Wayne Garland (PNP): 44.6%, 10.
Royal Robinson (PNP): 43.1%, 11. Oswald Simons (IND): 3.7%
Now if we take into consideration that 50.1% of all voters voted for the PDM at Electoral District level
and 44.9% did the same for the PNP, we can clearly see which candidate helped/hurt their party and by
how many votes. As stated earlier, to help his/her party an All Island candidate would need to get a
higher percentage in the Popularity Index than his/her party got in the Popular Vote – let us call this
difference “Cross-Over Appeal”. For clarity, the All Island candidate would need to get more votes than
the total votes cast for his/her party at the Electoral District level. For example, Mrs. Cartwright-
Robinson got 54.5% in the Popularity Index rating compared to the 50.1% the PDM got in the Popular
Vote, which gives her a net positive difference of 4.2% or 263 more votes than the PDM got at the
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3. Electoral District level. In short, Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson got at a minimum of 263 persons who did not
vote for the PDM at the Electoral District level to vote for her. That’s Cross-Over Appeal!
Based on their Cross-Over Appeal, the All Island candidates rank as follows:
1. Rufus Ewing (PNP): 7.2%/457 additional votes
2. Washington Misick (PNP): 4.8%/302 additional
votes
3. Sharlene Cartwright Robinson (PDM):
4.3%/273 additional votes
4. Carlos Simons (PNP): 1.8%/112 additional
votes
5. Derek Taylor (PDM): 0.5%/33 additional votes
6. Wayne Garland (PNP): -0.3%/19 less votes
7. Josephine Connolly (PDM): -1.7%/107 less
votes
8. Royal Robinson (PNP): -1.8%/115 less votes
9. Oswald Skippings (PDM): -4.2%/262 less votes
10. Samuel Harvey (PDM): -4.3%/271 less votes
Taking all of the above into consideration, the following arguments can be made in my humble opinion:
Country At Large
The country is still very much polarized along political lines. Despite all the talk of sharing votes, very few
persons did so, with more PDM’s doing so than PNP’s. Although I was with the PNP team in London
when the final details of the new Constitution was “negotiated”, I am still not sure what the British
Government objective was when they requested that 5 seats in Parliament be All Island seats. My belief
is that they wanted to make it easier for Independent candidates to be able to win a seat in Parliament,
however, if this was the case, the voting public clearly showed that it is very much party orientated,
voting in many cases “Straight down the line.”
Dr. Rufus Ewing
Among the 10 party affiliated All Island candidates, Dr. Ewing has the most Cross-Over Appeal, which is
seen by the fact that he got at a minimum 457 persons who did not vote for the PNP at the Electoral
District level to vote for him. These additional votes were necessary to him and they had a material
impact on the election results, as without them Dr. Ewing would not have made it into the Top-5. His
Cross-over appeal is more than likely due to the fact that he comes from what would be viewed as a
“PDM family”, thereby making it easier for persons who voted PDM at the Electoral District level to vote
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4. for him at the All Island level. This is clear in the case of Blue Hills and Wheeland – Dr. Ewing’s childhood
home – where he got 556 All Island votes compared to the PNP 389 Electoral District votes. Being the
Chairman of the Civil Servants Association also helped – although this cannot be verified through this
analysis – as it would have also made it easier for those Civil Servants who voted PDM at the Electoral
District level to give him a vote.
Washington Misick
Mr. Misick clearly still has a lot of respect among the voting public as he gained strong support right
across the country. His popularity is shown by the fact that he has the second highest Cross-over Appeal
with 4.8%, which allowed him to get at a minimum 302 persons who did not vote for the PNP at the
Electoral District level to vote for him. These additional votes were necessary to him and they had a
material impact on the election results, as without them Mr. Misick would not have made it into the
Top-5.
Sharlene Cartwright-Robinson
Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson was by far the most popular PDM candidate and the most popular All Island
candidate overall. Right across the country the PDM base gave her their full support, and her popularity
carried right past the political lines where she was able to get at a minimum 273 persons who did not
vote for the PDM at the Electoral District level to vote for her. Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson popularity was
helped by the fact that she was the most vocal in the Consultative Forum, and the public generally saw
her as “their voice” and “as having the public interest at heart”. The PDM base clearly view Mrs.
Cartwright-Robinson as a prize possession, as even without the additional 273 votes she got she would
have still made it into the Top-5.
Samuel Harvey and Oswald Skippings
The reason why I am including these two together is because their results were material and it affected
the outcome of the election. The poor showing of these two candidates reversed the gains that the PDM
made in the Popular Vote and gave the PNP the election victory. This can be clearly seen in the fact that
at a minimum 271 persons who voted for the PDM at the Electoral District level did not give Mr. Harvey
a vote, with 262 persons doing the same to Mr. Skippings. If those PDM’s who withheld their votes from
these gentlemen had voted for them, they would have gotten at a minimum a total of 3,164 votes each,
which would have put both of them in the Top-5 – replacing Washington Misick and Josephine Connolly.
This would have given the PDM a total of 4 seats at the All Island level and the government with a total
of 8 seats overall.
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5. In addition to all of the above, the way the electoral boundaries were drawn also benefited the PNP, as
the PDM large popular support was isolated in pockets, which despite allowing them win big in some
areas, made it difficult for them to turn the same into a majority of seats won at the Electoral District
level.
E. Jay Saunders
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