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Tweeting the campaign:
Evaluation of the Strategies performed by Spanish Political Parties
            on Twitter for the 2011 National Elections



     Pablo Aragón, Karolin Kappler, Andreas Kaltenbrunner,
       Jessica G. Neff, David Laniado, and Yana Volkovich
              Barcelona Media Foundation, Barcelona, Spain


                         Internet, Politics, Policy 2012
                          Oxford, September 20, 2012
Outline
 Background on the Spanish election
           Historical overview
           Spanish election system
 Goals and research questions
 Data collection
 Results
           Evolution of the number of tweets
           Evolution of the affective content
           Diffusion dynamics
           Communication dynamics
 Conclusions and further research

                                                2
Historical overview



                                                                                        Spanish Government
                                                                                        1977-1982   UCD
                                                                                        1982-1996   PSOE
                                                                                        1996-2004   PP
                                                                                        2004-2011   PSOE
                                                                                        2011-now    PP



http://www.publico.es/especial/elecciones-generales/2011/resultados/historico.php



      Since 1982, PSOE and PP are the two major national parties alternating the Spanish Government.



                                                                                    3
Spanish election system

Election process
       Although the Spanish legislative system is bicameral:
           Congress of Deputies (effective power)
           Senate
       The Spanish Constitution states that “the law distributes the total
       number of deputies, assigning a minimum initial representation to each
       district and the remainder is distributed in proportion to the population”.
       Small national and new parties complain that the system favors:
           two major parties
           regional nationalist parties


                                                            4
Spanish election system

Economical budget and access to traditional media
       The electoral law regulates:
           thresholds to private donations,
           prohibitions of donations from outside Spain,

       According to the results in the previous elections:
           grants for the campaign of each party,
           media coverage during the campaign.

       Some minor parties claimed lack of coverage during the campaign.



                                                             5
Goals and research questions
     Identify activity peaks in social media and examine the
     reaction of political party members to offline events.
     Analyze variations in the affective content expressed by
     political party members during the campaign.
     Are parties with low parliamentary representation forced
     into alternative digital strategies?
             “the process of formation and exercise of power relationships is
             decisively transformed in the new organizational and technological
             context derived from the rise of global digital networks of
             communication as the fundamental symbol-processing system of our
             time” (Castells, 2009).

     Is there a real and active debate among parties on Twitter?
             “a significant share of this form of mass self-communication is closer
             to electronic autism than to actual communication”? (Castells, 2009).
                                                           6
Data collection
3M political tweets published by 380K users in Nov 4-24, 2011.

                                               Tweets selected if:

                                                    containing a hashtag linked to the campaign
                                                    (#20n, #elecciones20n, #votapsoe, #votapp,
                                                    #15m, #nolesvotes, …)
                                                    written by a user previously identified as a
                                                    member of a political party.
                                                    written by a user previously identified as an
                                                    activist, journalist, radio/television program,
                                                    mass media channel focused on the
                                                    campaign.
                                                    mentioning the political party/candidate
                                                    profile of PSOE, PP, IU, UPyD, EQUO, CiU or
                                                    ERC.


                         National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                         National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      7
                         Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Evolution of the number of tweets




Activity on Twitter is strongly influenced by events in the offline world:
          the election debate (>500k tweets)
          the closing day of campaign (>200k tweets)
          the election day (>400k tweets)

Users actually showed less active during the election silence. Even in the unregulated space
of Twitter, the reflection day was followed and generally accepted.
                              National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                              National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      8
                              Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Evolution of the number of tweets




   The peaks are consistent in the tweets posted by members of political parties.
   The parties participating in the debates and the ones with favorable electoral
   results acquire higher levels of activity in these peaks.


                        National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                        National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      9
                        Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Evolution of the affective content

                                                 Comparison of tweets by
                                                 PSOE and PP with the
                                                 Spanish ANEW lexicon
                                                 (Redondo et al., 2007)

                                                 Highest values of
                                                 valence/dominance of
                                                 the winning party on
                                                 the days prior to the
                                                 Election Day.


              National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
              National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      10
              Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Diffusion dynamics




   Parties with traditional mass media coverage (PSOE,PP,CiU,ERC vs. UPyD,IU,EQUO)
   generate more content from the account of the candidate than from the party's
   official account.
   Most of these parties (PSOE,PP,CiU) opt for co-managing the account of the
   candidate with a professional team of communication.

                       National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                       National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      11
                       Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Diffusion dynamics (retweets)




                                           Members of political parties
                                           propagate, almost exclusively,
                                           contents coming from members
                                           of their own party.


             National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
             National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      12
             Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Diffusion dynamics (retweets)
                                    Social Network Analysis reveals:
                                               Parties with limited mass media
                                               coverage (EQUO and UPyD)
                                               generate more clustered
                                               networks with a bigger giant
                                               component => stronger
                                               community cohesion.
                                               Fragmentation occurs more
                                               intensively in coalition of parties
                                               (IU).
                                               The most cohesive parties
                                               generate network structures
                                               with the highest levels of nested
                                               k-cores.

             National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
             National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      13
             Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Diffusion dynamics (retweets)




  Parties and/or candidates are central elements in the diffusion dynamics
                 over the election campaign (except for IU).

                      National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                      National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      14
                      Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Communication dynamics (replies)
The most intensive communication
flows occur between members of the
same party.




                                                          Considerable levels of
                                                          communication among
                                                          members of different parties:
                                                                    PP - PSOE
                                                                    IU - UPyD - EQUO
                                                                    ERC - CiU

                        National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                        National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      15
                        Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Communication dynamics (replies)




     Again, EQUO, UPyD, and IU show the highest clustering coefficient



                    National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                    National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      16
                    Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Results: Communication dynamics (replies)




        In most party replies networks, the candidate is the most central user.
 Important presence of politicians in the top-users rather than corporate party accounts

                         National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner)
                         National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO      17
                         Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
Conclusions

   The winning party already anticipated its victory in the affective content of its
   tweets in the days prior to the election day.

   Almost no retweets between members of different political parties. Also
   conversations (replies) take place mostly among members of the same party.

   Minor and new parties, with limited access to traditional media, tend to be more
   clustered and better connected, which implies a more cohesive community.

   The candidate and/or party accounts are central elements in the diffusion
   dynamics. However, in communication dynamics only the candidates remain as
   central elements.
                 Users prefers to interact with accounts that correspond to politicians
                 rather than political corporate accounts



                                                                  18
Further research

    Explore topological patterns of the party networks and
    characterize the different party apparatus as centralized,
    decentralized or distributed networks (De Ugarte, 2007).




                     http://lasindias.org/el-poder-de-las-redes/




                                                                   19
Further research

    Explore topological patterns of the party networks and
    characterize the different party apparatus as centralized,
    decentralized or distributed networks (De Ugarte, 2007).


    Contrast the topological patterns of the party networks with
    the networks produced by recent citizens' movements.




                                                 20
Questions?
     Thank you for your attention!




                             21
References
    Castells M, (2009). “Communication power”.
    Oxford University Press.


    De Ugarte D. (2007). “El poder de las redes”.
    Colección Biblioteca de las Indias.


    Redondo J., Fraga I., Padrón I., and Comesaña M. (2007). “The Spanish
    adaptation of ANEW (affective norms for English words)”. Behavior
    Research Methods, 39(3), 600-605.
    Psychonomic Society Publications.




                                                       22
Fundació Barcelona Media

      Av. Diagonal, 177 | 08018 Barcelona
Tel (+34) 93 238 14 00 | Fax (+34) 93 309 31 88

          www.barcelonamedia.org

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Tweeting the campaign: Evaluation of the Strategies performed by Spanish Political Parties on Twitter for the 2011 National Elections

  • 1. Tweeting the campaign: Evaluation of the Strategies performed by Spanish Political Parties on Twitter for the 2011 National Elections Pablo Aragón, Karolin Kappler, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Jessica G. Neff, David Laniado, and Yana Volkovich Barcelona Media Foundation, Barcelona, Spain Internet, Politics, Policy 2012 Oxford, September 20, 2012
  • 2. Outline Background on the Spanish election Historical overview Spanish election system Goals and research questions Data collection Results Evolution of the number of tweets Evolution of the affective content Diffusion dynamics Communication dynamics Conclusions and further research 2
  • 3. Historical overview Spanish Government 1977-1982 UCD 1982-1996 PSOE 1996-2004 PP 2004-2011 PSOE 2011-now PP http://www.publico.es/especial/elecciones-generales/2011/resultados/historico.php Since 1982, PSOE and PP are the two major national parties alternating the Spanish Government. 3
  • 4. Spanish election system Election process Although the Spanish legislative system is bicameral: Congress of Deputies (effective power) Senate The Spanish Constitution states that “the law distributes the total number of deputies, assigning a minimum initial representation to each district and the remainder is distributed in proportion to the population”. Small national and new parties complain that the system favors: two major parties regional nationalist parties 4
  • 5. Spanish election system Economical budget and access to traditional media The electoral law regulates: thresholds to private donations, prohibitions of donations from outside Spain, According to the results in the previous elections: grants for the campaign of each party, media coverage during the campaign. Some minor parties claimed lack of coverage during the campaign. 5
  • 6. Goals and research questions Identify activity peaks in social media and examine the reaction of political party members to offline events. Analyze variations in the affective content expressed by political party members during the campaign. Are parties with low parliamentary representation forced into alternative digital strategies? “the process of formation and exercise of power relationships is decisively transformed in the new organizational and technological context derived from the rise of global digital networks of communication as the fundamental symbol-processing system of our time” (Castells, 2009). Is there a real and active debate among parties on Twitter? “a significant share of this form of mass self-communication is closer to electronic autism than to actual communication”? (Castells, 2009). 6
  • 7. Data collection 3M political tweets published by 380K users in Nov 4-24, 2011. Tweets selected if: containing a hashtag linked to the campaign (#20n, #elecciones20n, #votapsoe, #votapp, #15m, #nolesvotes, …) written by a user previously identified as a member of a political party. written by a user previously identified as an activist, journalist, radio/television program, mass media channel focused on the campaign. mentioning the political party/candidate profile of PSOE, PP, IU, UPyD, EQUO, CiU or ERC. National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 7 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 8. Results: Evolution of the number of tweets Activity on Twitter is strongly influenced by events in the offline world: the election debate (>500k tweets) the closing day of campaign (>200k tweets) the election day (>400k tweets) Users actually showed less active during the election silence. Even in the unregulated space of Twitter, the reflection day was followed and generally accepted. National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 8 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 9. Results: Evolution of the number of tweets The peaks are consistent in the tweets posted by members of political parties. The parties participating in the debates and the ones with favorable electoral results acquire higher levels of activity in these peaks. National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 9 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 10. Results: Evolution of the affective content Comparison of tweets by PSOE and PP with the Spanish ANEW lexicon (Redondo et al., 2007) Highest values of valence/dominance of the winning party on the days prior to the Election Day. National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 10 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 11. Results: Diffusion dynamics Parties with traditional mass media coverage (PSOE,PP,CiU,ERC vs. UPyD,IU,EQUO) generate more content from the account of the candidate than from the party's official account. Most of these parties (PSOE,PP,CiU) opt for co-managing the account of the candidate with a professional team of communication. National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 11 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 12. Results: Diffusion dynamics (retweets) Members of political parties propagate, almost exclusively, contents coming from members of their own party. National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 12 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 13. Results: Diffusion dynamics (retweets) Social Network Analysis reveals: Parties with limited mass media coverage (EQUO and UPyD) generate more clustered networks with a bigger giant component => stronger community cohesion. Fragmentation occurs more intensively in coalition of parties (IU). The most cohesive parties generate network structures with the highest levels of nested k-cores. National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 13 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 14. Results: Diffusion dynamics (retweets) Parties and/or candidates are central elements in the diffusion dynamics over the election campaign (except for IU). National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 14 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 15. Results: Communication dynamics (replies) The most intensive communication flows occur between members of the same party. Considerable levels of communication among members of different parties: PP - PSOE IU - UPyD - EQUO ERC - CiU National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 15 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 16. Results: Communication dynamics (replies) Again, EQUO, UPyD, and IU show the highest clustering coefficient National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 16 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 17. Results: Communication dynamics (replies) In most party replies networks, the candidate is the most central user. Important presence of politicians in the top-users rather than corporate party accounts National major parties: PSOE, PP (winner) National minor parties: IU, UPyD, EQUO 17 Nationalist parties: CiU, ERC
  • 18. Conclusions The winning party already anticipated its victory in the affective content of its tweets in the days prior to the election day. Almost no retweets between members of different political parties. Also conversations (replies) take place mostly among members of the same party. Minor and new parties, with limited access to traditional media, tend to be more clustered and better connected, which implies a more cohesive community. The candidate and/or party accounts are central elements in the diffusion dynamics. However, in communication dynamics only the candidates remain as central elements. Users prefers to interact with accounts that correspond to politicians rather than political corporate accounts 18
  • 19. Further research Explore topological patterns of the party networks and characterize the different party apparatus as centralized, decentralized or distributed networks (De Ugarte, 2007). http://lasindias.org/el-poder-de-las-redes/ 19
  • 20. Further research Explore topological patterns of the party networks and characterize the different party apparatus as centralized, decentralized or distributed networks (De Ugarte, 2007). Contrast the topological patterns of the party networks with the networks produced by recent citizens' movements. 20
  • 21. Questions? Thank you for your attention! 21
  • 22. References Castells M, (2009). “Communication power”. Oxford University Press. De Ugarte D. (2007). “El poder de las redes”. Colección Biblioteca de las Indias. Redondo J., Fraga I., Padrón I., and Comesaña M. (2007). “The Spanish adaptation of ANEW (affective norms for English words)”. Behavior Research Methods, 39(3), 600-605. Psychonomic Society Publications. 22
  • 23. Fundació Barcelona Media Av. Diagonal, 177 | 08018 Barcelona Tel (+34) 93 238 14 00 | Fax (+34) 93 309 31 88 www.barcelonamedia.org