The document summarizes how human communication has evolved over time from visual, to oral language, to mass media using print, to the current digital age. It discusses how each new era has expanded our reach and changed our concept of time. The document then predicts future eras may include intelligent media using artificial intelligence, bio media using augmented reality and implants, and hyper media using direct thought downloads. Each new era is accompanied by generational "awakenings" and periods of crisis around every 80 years. The document speculates future media could include thought projection and a potential "World War 4.0" between humans and artificial intelligence. It encourages those in journalism fields to learn new skills like computer-assisted reporting to invent and engage with
A history of the future of news: What 1767 tells us about 2100
1. A history of the future of news
What 1767 Tells Us About 2100
Eric Newton
-- Nov. 14, 2011, Arizona State University,
Eric Newton, Senior Adviser to the President,
John S. and James L. Knight Foundation
2. Evolution of human communication, new categories
Age Human capacity Date (c.) Concept of time
Visual Curiosity 1-2m BC Natural
Language Orality 100,000 BC Cyclical
Mass Media Literacy 1450 AD Linear
Digital Fluency 1991 AD Multi
Sources: Various
3. Global to
billions
Communication’s
Exponential Rise
MESSAGE
REACH
Nearby to
a crowd
Visual Language
Mass Media
HISTORIC AGE Digital
4. We predict the future based on what we know
Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World, Dec. 31, 1899, looking a century ahead
5. Multi-Time
Multi-Time combines
Natural, Cyclical,
Linear, Exponential
and Multi-
Dimensional Time
-- graphic by William Newton
6. Science fiction writers go with their imaginations
Moon travel
Jules Verne,
From the
Earth to the Moon,
1865
10. Flat Screens – Jetsons (1962)
I-pad, 2001, a Space Odyssey, 1968
11. Each American generation comes of age
as a different news medium is rising
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Compromise 1767- Pamphlets American
1791 Revolution
Transcendental 1792- Partisan weekly
1821 newspapers
(Agricultural era help from
U.S. mail, postal roads) Transcendental
Populist daily Awakening
Gilded 1822- newspapers
1842
The Associated Press
Progressive 1843- (the telegraph) Civil War looms
1859 Generations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”;
media trends from the Newseum, web research
12. More cycles in time: Awakenings and crises every 80 years
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Missionary 1860- Illustrated magazines, Civil War
1882 niche publications
Lost 1883- Major metropolitan
1900 daily newspapers
(Industrial era inventions: Third Great
Light bulb, telephone,
Awakening
linotype, film, etc.)
G.I. 1901- Photography in print,
1924 tabloids
Silent 1925- Radio newscasts, Depression,
1942 movies and newsreels World War
Two
Generations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”; media trends
from the Newseum News History Content Book; web research
13. The cycles persist even as information explodes
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Boom 1943- Glossy color magazines
1960 (TV, color TV, home telephones)
Gen X 1961- TV newscasts The 1960s
1981 (Satellites, cable, video tape) awakening
Millennial 1982- World Wide Web
2000 (Digital era inventions: personal computers,
the Internet, domestic email, chat, video
games, multimedia)
Cyber 2001- Mobile and Social Media
2026 (Cell phones, search, blogs, citizen media, 9-11,
social media, blogosphere, smart phones,
recession,
tablets, global World Wide Web, universal e-
commerce, remote sensing, wearable media WWar 3.0
…)
Generations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”; media trends from the Newseum , web research
14. ‘Personal, portable, participatory’ ads, 2002, Minority Report
Wearable media,
Dick Tracy, two-way
wrist radio,
Jan. 13, 1946;
upgraded to two-
way TV in 1964
16. If patterns hold, our Multi-time future will feature
accelerating new media forms, awakenings and crises
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary 2027-2047 Intelligent Media
(The cloud, smart grids, robotics,
artificial intelligence)
Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from
“The Fourth Turning,” tech from “The Singularity is Near,” web research
17. Robotics, bionics,
artificial intelligence,
The Terminator, 1984; Star Trek,
The Next Generation, various
18. Accelerating media, awakenings and crises
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary 2027- Intelligent Media
2047 (The cloud, smart grids,
robotics, artificial intelligence)
Hybrid 2048- Bio Media Machine awakening:
2068 (Augmented reality; The Singularity
nanotechnology; media
implants; enhanced human
capacity)
Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from
“The Fourth Turning,” tech from“The Singularity is Near,” web research
21. Science Fiction predicts life after the Singularity
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary 2027- Intelligent Media
2047 (The cloud, smart grids,
robotics, artificial intelligence)
Hybrid 2048- Bio Media Machine awakening:
2068 (Augmented reality; The Singularity
nanotechnology; media
implants; enhanced human
capacity)
Courageo 2069- Hyper Media
us 2089 (Cranial downloads;
thought aggregators; sentient
environment)
Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from
“The Fourth Turning,” tech from“The Singularity is Near,” web research
24. A final crisis or another chance to emerge stronger?
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary 2027- Intelligent Media
2047 (The cloud, smart grids, robotics,
artificial intelligence)
Hybrid 2048- Bio Media Machine
2068 (Augmented reality; awakening:
nanotechnology; media implants;
The Singularity
enhanced human capacity)
Courageo 2069- Hyper Media
us 2089 (Cranial downloads;
thought aggregators; sentient
environment)
Enlighten 2090- Omni Media World War 4.0:
ed 2110 (Thought projection; telepathy; Humans vs.
telekinesis; teleportation) environment
Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from
“The Fourth Turning,” tech from “The Singularity is Near,” web research
27. ‘So what does all this have to do with me?’
YOU
and your children … and their children
… and theirs …
will invent this future of news
(or another)
through your innovations
and consumption
31. What’s a journalism/mass com major to do?
1. Learn truthful storytelling in all media
2. Master computer assisted reporting/design
3. Watch a lot more science fiction!
4. Fool around with a new digital tool every day
5. Rewrite the codes of ethics: New tools make new rules.
6. Follow new technology closely and create news adaptations
7. Practice working in open, collaborative groups
8. Learn about media law (being rewritten for the
digital age) business models (ditto), new engagement techniques (ditto).
9. Teach digital media fluency to everyone
10. Develop sources for covering World War 3.0, just in case
