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Big data panel slides
2
Big data panel slides
Big data panel slides
Media


Button
Splash page experiment
Variations:
  Button:              Media:

     •   Sign Up          1. Get Involved Image

     •   Learn More       2. Family Image

     •   Join Us Now      3. Change Image

     •   Sign Up Now      4. Barack’s Video

                          5. Springfield Video

                          6. Sam’s Video
Button: “Sign Up”
Button: “Learn More”
Button: “Join Us Now”
Button: “Sign Up Now”
Splash page experiment
Variations:
  Button:              Media:

     •   Sign Up          1. Get Involved Image

     •   Learn More       2. Family Image

     •   Join Us Now      3. Change Image

     •   Sign Up Now      4. Barack’s Video

                          5. Springfield Video

                          6. Sam’s Video
Media: “Get Involved”
Media: “Family”
Media: “Change”
Media: “Barack’s Video”
Media: “Springfield Video”
Media: “Sam’s Video”
Splash page experiment
Variations:
  Button:             Media:

     1. Sign Up          1. Get Involved Image

     2. Learn More       2. Family Image

     3. Join Us Now      3. Change Image

     4. Sign Up Now      4. Barack’s Video

                         5. Springfield Video

                         6. Sam’s Video
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
               Email
                            Volunteers   Amount Raised
            Subscriptions

Original:    7,120,000       712,000     $143,000,000


+40.6%       +2,880,000     +288,000     +$57,000,000


 New:        10,000,000     1,000,000    $200,000,000
Splash page experiment results
               Email
                            Volunteers   Amount Raised
            Subscriptions

Original:    7,120,000       712,000     $143,000,000


+40.6%       +2,880,000     +288,000     +$57,000,000


 New:        10,000,000     1,000,000    $200,000,000
Splash page experiment results
               Email
                            Volunteers   Amount Raised
            Subscriptions

Original:    7,120,000       712,000     $143,000,000


+40.6%       +2,880,000     +288,000     +$57,000,000


 New:        10,000,000     1,000,000    $200,000,000
Email me:        Follow me:
dan@optimizely.com   @dsiroker
26
Modeling is using the data you have about a
voter to make an informed judgment about:

   - whether they will vote
   - who they will vote for
   - what issues affect their vote
   - any other question you think has
   predictable (reproducible) behaviors
humans make models all the time, as we
collect data & make informed judgments:




                                          80%
                                           ?
                                          likelihood of voting
                                               for Obama
SURVEY GOP=94% (94/100)
STATEWIDE GOP~94% (94,000/100,000)



50 years old

   white




56% 59% 63% 68% 85% 89% 94%
                                     % GOP
- knowledge management
- master data management
- data harmonization
- voter relationship management

OBAMA CAMPAIGN’S PROJECT NARWHAL
Slowly lowering
                            the wall
                            between online
                            & offline data
                            1. Data providers
William Alexander Lundry,
                            2. Targeted Display Ads
Registered Republican       3. Facebook Apps
                            4. Volunteered Association
The Conservative Data Ecosystem




              RNC
        Data Trust
            Themis
 United In Purpose
33
Big data panel slides
Big Political Data for
     the masses
Big data panel slides
Periodic to real time
Responds to DM                Likelihood to vote
        Partisan Affiliation
                                  Top Issue




                           Likelihood to unsubscribe
Likelihood to volunteer
                          Best Channel for Giving
Receptiveness to treatment
39
The world of survey
research is changing
      rapidly.
The average
 phone survey
response rate is
  around 20%
 and declining.
27% of US
households are
cell only. (CDC)
46% of American
  adults own a
  smartphone.
Telephone Consumer
Protection Act of 1991
Online research
   tools are
  emerging.
Whether online
 works as a tool
depends on what
  we want to
   measure.
As it gets harder to ask...




 What if we get better
   about listening?
Big data panel slides
Big data panel slides
Sentiment? I can go to
twittersentiment.appspot.com
      and get an analysis.
Does “Who said it
  - Newt or Buzz
 Lightyear?” really
count as a positive
      tweet?
“Gingrich had 6 percent more activity
                              than the other candidates and the positive
                               sentiment on him related to Super
                              Tuesday is at 84 percent. Sentiment in
                             general online conversation about him is only
                                    at 45 percent. So it seems his folks are
Photo: Marc Grob for Time
                                           working the online world hard.”
                                -From POLITICO “Playbook,” Super Tuesday (March 6 2012),
                            quoting an email from a Washington-based public affairs consultant
Big data panel slides
Survey         Sentiment Analysis



• Landline bias        • Online/activist bias
• Contained universe   • Variable universe
• Concrete results     • Subject to interpretation
• “Snapshot” in time   • Real-time, evolving
• Message testing      • Identify new trends
Big data panel slides

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Big data panel slides

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Talk about how historically, data has been tightly guarded by political parties and big organizations. And it’s also been limited by available tech. Technology to handle terabytes of data was expensive, and even out of reach of a lot of organizations.
  2. But we’re seeing change. One great example of this is NationBuilder. Anyone who signs up can get access to the voter file. This is a slow but steady movement to a greater number of people having access to the data. Some examples: (1) Democratic Data Coop, (2) Catalist, (3) New Koch Brothers Data Organization on the right
  3. But we’re also seeing a democratization of the technology. It used to be that if you wanted to handle terabytes of data, you had to go to either a Teradata, Netezza, or Oracle. More and more, organizations are using Hadoop + Hive and other technologies in order to process and query large sets of data. This also corresponds to the commoditization of the hardware required for these big clusters (and the cloud is becoming a better and better option).
  4. Talk about starting to put more real time measures into models -- VF data updates once a month, maybe, but online data sources are dynamic and change on a day to day basis. Your voter contact system is producing new day thousands of times throughout a day. This shouldn’t be a process that moves once a month.
  5. Shift of what we are modeling FOR
  6. Calling more cell phones isn’t the answer because of TCPA - regulates when/how pollsters can call, makes cell interviews expensive and a major burden
  7. Some online panels are great for understanding specific audiences but there’s still debate about their use and ability to be representative of large populations for something like a ballot test.
  8. This is creating a massive new industry at the intersection of tech and opinion research. I’ve even had friends and colleagues tell me they’ve built models that can predict ballot share by looking just at online conversation and activity data.
  9. Here’s one race that threw a wrench into the idea of monitoring online indicators as a way of predicting ballot share.
  10. You can see in that 2010 election, sure Christine O’Donnell had a LOT of search traffic, and up until election day always had a higher search volume than her opponent. But did it matter? Nope.
  11. It’s not hard to generate a sentiment analysi.. Take Twitter. Here, I can plug in and get an analysis fast. However, note in my example the first “positive” tweet...
  12. Really? And look - nobody gets it perfect. That’s the point. It is very, very, very hard to get this right.
  13. Sentiment analysis is working its way into the political conversation as a way, in addition to polls, to understand public opinion - but does it matter?
  14. If Gingrich’s online buzz was so great ahead of Super Tuesday, why did he only win one of these ten states that day? (TELL ANECDOTE ABOUT NG CAMPAIGN)
  15. The point isn’t to rain on the parade of sentiment analysis. I think traditional research’s days are numbered if it doesn’t evolve. But I think sentiment analysis has a lot to learn from traditional survey research for campaigns. (Explain pros and cons)