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1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
23RD
MAY 2013
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 US Dollar At Risk Before
Bernanke Testimony, FOMC
Minutes
 GBP/USD Slumps Under
$1.5100 as April Retail
Sales Underwhelm
THE TAKEAWAY: GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (APR) > -
1.4% versus +0.1% expected, from -0.7% (revised higher
from -0.8%) (m/m), +0.2% versus +1.8% expected, from
+0.4% (y/y) > Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (APR) > -1.3% versus
+0.1% expected, from -0.6% (revised higher from -0.7%)
(m/m), +0.5% versus +2.0% expected, from -0.5% (y/y) >
Bank of England May meeting Minutes show split MPC over
more QE > GBPUSD BEARISH
Despite a strong 1Q‟13 GDP report, it appears that the
British economy is losing steam, in thanks to a slowdown in
consumption trends. According to the Office for National
Statistics, the slowdown in Retail Sales can be wholly
attributed to a slump in food prices in the early-2Q,
exacerbated by what‟s being described as „poor weather.‟
Regardless, in light of disinflating price pressures (per the
April CPI report), the slowdown in sales can be viewed as a
shift towards slower growth once more.
Concurrently, the Bank of England releases the Minutes
from its May meeting as well earlier, noting the Monetary
Policy Committee‟s concern for inflation (per the majority‟s
perspective, as outgoing Governor Mervyn King was
outvoted once more, 6-3). “There was tentative evidence
that measures of medium-term inflation expectations were
becoming more sensitive to short- term news in
inflation...Financial markets were not expecting further
asset purchases at this meeting and might, at the margin,
reassess the committee‟s tolerance of elevated inflation
should additional stimulus be injected.” If inflation
continues to fall, incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney may
be forced to implement additional policy measures, which
would be GBP-negative.
TRADING TIPS
 SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.2900 TGT 1.2880/1.2860
SL 1.2930
 BUY USDJPY ABOVE 103.00
TGT 103.20/103.50 SL
102.70
 SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5070 TGT 1.5020/1.5000
SL 1.5100
HEADLINES

3.  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2920 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.2945 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.2903 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.2939 MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 68(BEARISH SIGNAL)

4. HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 102.43 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 102.99 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 102.35 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 102.85 MACD =>.04(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 62(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5160 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5174 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5074 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5101 MACD =>-.00013(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)

6. HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8522 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 00.8577 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8519 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8574 MACD =>.00005(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 85(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

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ANALYSIS
OPEN: 83.7790 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 83.8870 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 83.6760 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 83.8090 MACD =>.0291(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
May 19
22:30
NZD Performance
Services Index (APR)
Medium 56.1 55.6
23:01
GBP Rightmove House
Prices (MoM) (MAY)
Low 2.1% 2.1%
23:01
GBP Rightmove House
Prices (YoY) (MAY)
Low 2.5% 0.4%
Mon
May 20
JPY Cabinet Office
Monthly Economic
Report for May
Medium
04:00
JPY Tokyo
Condominium Sales
(YoY) (APR)
Low -2.8% 48.4%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
(MAR F)
Low 93.8 93.3
05:00
JPY Leading Index
(MAR F)
Medium 97.9 97.6
05:30
JPY Nationwide
Department Store
Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -0.5% 3.9%
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department
Store Sales (YoY)
(APR)
Low 2.1% 6.4%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool
Orders (YoY) (APR F)
Medium -23.6% -24.1%
07:00
JPY Convenience
Store Sales (YoY)
(APR)
Low -2.6% -0.4%
12:30
USD Chicago Fed Nat
Activity Index (APR)
Medium -0.53 -0.23
17:00
USD Fed's Evans
Speaks on Economy in
Chicago
Low
Tue
May 21
00:00
AUD Conference Board
Leading Index (MAR)
Medium 0.1% 0.3%
01:30
AUD RBA Policy
Meeting - May Minutes
High
03:00
NZD Reserve Bank of
New Zealand 2-Year
Inflation Expectation
(2Q)
Medium 2.06% 2.17%
03:00
NZD Credit Card
Spending s.a. (MoM)
(APR)
Medium 0.4% -0.3%
03:00
NZD Credit Card
Spending (YoY) (APR)
Medium 4.0% 3.6%
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity
Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium -0.4% 0.6%
05:00
JPY Supermarket
Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low 1.7%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER

9. 06:00
EUR German Producer
Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.1% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Producer
Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low 0.1% 0.4%
07:00
CHF Money Supply M3
(YoY) (APR)
Low 9.9%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Input n.s.a.
(MoM) (APR)
Low -1.3% -0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Input n.s.a. (YoY)
(APR)
Low 0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output n.s.a.
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.2% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output n.s.a.
(YoY) (APR)
Medium 1.4% 2.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output Core
n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.3% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price
Index Output Core
n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium 0.9% 1.3%
08:30
GBP DCLG UK House
Prices (YoY) (MAR)
Low 2.0% 1.9%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.4% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (APR)
High 2.6% 2.8%
08:30
GBP Core Consumer
Price Index (YoY)
(APR)
High 2.3% 2.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index
(APR)
Low 249.9 248.7
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.5% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index
(YoY) (APR)
Low 3.1% 3.3%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index
Ex Mort Int.Payments
(YoY) (APR)
Low 3.0% 3.2%
15:30
USD Fed's Bullard
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Frankfurt
Low
17:00
USD Fed's Dudley
Speaks in New York
Low
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a.
(APR)
Low 1220
23:50
JPY Merchandise
Trade Balance Total
(Yen) (APR)
Medium -¥637.3B -¥362.4B
23:50
JPY Adjusted
Merchandise Trade
Low -¥605.8B -¥922.0B

10. Balance (Yen) (APR)
23:50
JPY Merchandise
Trade Exports (YoY)
(APR)
Low 5.5 1.1
Wed
May 22
JPY Bank of Japan
Rate Decision (MAY
22)
High 0.10% 0.10%
JPY BOJ Kuroda Press
Conference After Policy
Meeting
High
00:30
AUD Westpac
Consumer Confidence
(MAY)
Medium -5.1%
00:30
AUD Westpac
Consumer Confidence
Index (MAY)
Low 104.9
01:00
AUD DEWR Internet
Skilled Vacancies
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.1%
04:00
JPY Bank of Japan
Monetary Policy
Statement
Medium
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Current Account s.a.
(euros) (MAR)
Low 16.3B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Current Account n.s.a.
(euros) (MAR)
Low 12.1B
08:30
GBP Bank of England
Minutes
High
08:30
GBP Retail Sales
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.1% -0.8%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY)
(APR)
Medium 1.8% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales
w/Auto Fuel (MoM)
(APR)
Low 0.1% -0.7%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales
w/Auto Fuel (YoY)
(APR)
Medium 2.0% -0.5%
08:30
GBP Public Finances
(PSNCR) (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium -4.0B 31.3B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex
Interventions (APR)
Medium 8.5B 15.1B
08:30
GBP Public Sector Net
Borrowing (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium 8.8B 16.7B
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Total
Orders (MAY)
Low -17 -25
10:00
GBP CBI Trends
Selling Prices (MAY)
Low 5 8
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (MAY 17)
Low -7.3%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales
(MoM) (MAR)
Medium 0.2% 0.8%

11. 12:30
CAD Retail Sales Less
Autos (MoM) (MAR)
Low 0.2% 0.7%
14:00
USD Fed's Bernanke
Testifies on Economic
Outlook
High
14:00
USD Existing Home
Sales (APR)
Low 4.99M 4.92M
14:00
USD Existing Home
Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium 1.3% -0.6%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (MAY
17)
Low -624K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (MAY
17)
Low 575K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(MAY 17)
Low 2588K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(MAY 17)
Low 2300K
18:00
USD Fed Releases
Minutes from Apr 30 -
May 1 FOMC Meeting
High
23:50
JPY Merchandise
Trade Imports (YoY)
(APR)
Low 6.9 5.5
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 17)
Medium ¥186.4B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 17)
Medium ¥19.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 17)
Low -¥413.5B
Thu
May 23
01:00
AUD Consumer
Inflation Expectation
(MAY)
Medium 2.20%
01:45
LIVE
CNY HSBC Flash
Manufacturing PMI
(MAY)
Medium 50.4 50.4
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's
Monthly Economic
Report for May (Table)
Medium
07:00
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY P)
Low 44.8 44.4
07:00
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY
P)
Low 44.5 44.3
07:30
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY A)
Medium 48.5 48.1
07:30
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY
Medium 50.0 49.6

12. A)
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY A)
Medium 47.0 46.7
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY
A)
Medium 47.2 47.0
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Composite (MAY
A)
Medium 47.2 46.9
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic
Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High 0.3% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (1Q P)
High 0.6% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Private
Consumption (1Q P)
Low 0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Government
Spending (1Q P)
Low 0.2% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Gross Fixed
Capital Formation (1Q
P)
Low 0.3% -0.2%
08:30 GBP Exports (1Q P) Low -1.0% -1.6%
08:30 GBP Imports (1Q P) Low -0.9% -1.0%
08:30
GBP Total Business
Investment (QoQ) (1Q
P)
Low -0.8%
08:30
GBP Total Business
Investment (YoY) (1Q
P)
Medium 0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services
(MoM) (MAR)
Low 0.1% 0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services
(3Mo3M) (MAR)
Low 0.6% 0.1%
10:05
USD Fed's Bullard to
Speak on Monetary
Policy in London
Low
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (MAY 18)
Medium 346K 360K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(MAY 17)
Low 3000K 3009K
12:58
USD Markit US PMI
Preliminary (MAY)
Medium 52
13:00
USD House Price Index
(MoM) (MAR)
Medium 0.80% 0.70%
13:00
USD House Price
Purchase Index (QoQ)
(1Q)
Low 1.40%

13. 14:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Confidence
(MAY A)
Medium -21.8 -22.3
14:00
USD New Home Sales
(APR)
Low 425K 417K
14:00
USD New Home Sales
(MoM) (APR)
Medium 1.90% 1.50%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (MAY
17)
Low 99
15:00
USD Kansas City Fed
Manf. Activity (MAY)
Low -5 -5
22:45
NZD Trade Balance
(New Zealand dollars)
(APR)
Medium 480M 718M
22:45
NZD Exports (New
Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low 4.06B 4.42B
22:45
NZD Imports (New
Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low 3.60B 3.70B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 17)
Low ¥878.8B
Fri
May 24
EUR German Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(QoQ) (1Q F)
Medium 0.1% 0.1%
01:35
CNY MNI May Flash
Business Sentiment
Indicator
Low
02:55
JPY Bank of Japan
Governor Kuroda
speech at Nikkei
Conference
Low
04:00
USD Revisions: New
Home Sales
Low
06:00
EUR German Gross
Domestic Product
w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High -0.2% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Gross
Domestic Product
n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High -1.4% -1.4%
06:00
EUR German Domestic
Demand (1Q)
Low 0.1% 0.2%
06:00
EUR German Exports
(1Q)
Low -0.6% -2.0%
06:00
EUR German Capital
Investment (1Q)
Low -0.7% -0.7%
06:00
EUR German
Government Spending
(1Q)
Low 0.3% 0.4%
06:00
EUR German
Construction
Investment (1Q)
Low -1.2% -0.1%
06:00
EUR German Imports
(1Q)
Low -0.9% -0.6%

14. 06:00
EUR German Private
Consumption (1Q)
Low 0.3% 0.1%
06:00
EUR German GfK
Consumer Confidence
Survey (JUN) (JUN)
Medium 6.2 6.2
08:00
EUR German IFO -
Business Climate
(MAY)
Medium 104.4 104.4
08:00
EUR German IFO -
Current Assessment
(MAY)
Medium 107.2 107.2
08:00
EUR German IFO -
Expectations (MAY)
Medium 101.6 101.6
08:30
GBP BBA Loans for
House Purchase (APR)
Medium 32800 31227
12:30
LIVE
USD Durable Goods
Orders (APR)
High 1.7% -5.7%
12:30
USD Durables Ex
Transportation (APR)
Medium 0.5% -1.4%
12:30
USD Cap Goods
Orders Nondef Ex Air
(APR)
Low 0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship
Nondef Ex Air (APR)
Low 0.3%
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD)
(New Zealand dollars)
(APR)
Medium -380M -525M

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