1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A Sub-National Food Security Index for Ethiopia:
Assessing Progress in Region-Level Outcomes
Emily Schmidt and Paul Dorosh
ESSP – II Conference
October 22-24, 2009

2. Assessing Food Insecurity and Measuring Progress
• Access to sufficient food and nutrients is essential for household welfare,
as well as for accomplishing other development objectives.
• Households with insufficient access to food often face other challenges
related to food insecurity including poor health and declines in
productivity.
• With the goal of providing a transparent and more straight-forward
database on food insecurity, IFPRI developed a Global Hunger Index (GHI)
in 2006 that allowed for easy comparison across countries.
• National averages can mask important regional differences, thus we
calculate a Sub-National Food Security Index for Ethiopia using data from
1999-2000 and 2004-05 household surveys
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

3. Measuring Food Insecurity
• Recognizing the various dimensions of food insecurity, the Global Hunger Index
equally weights:
• Proportion of people who are food energy deficient
(FAO estimates are based on a cross-country regression:
undernourishment as a function of per capita food availability and
other factors)
• Prevalence of underweight children under the age of five
(WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition)
• Mortality rate among children less than five years of age
(UNICEF’s The state of the world’s children 2009 )
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

4. Measuring Food Insecurity
• The Ethiopia Food Security Index uses this same weighting system, but uses
nationally collected data
• Household Income Consumption Expenditure Survey, and
the Demographic and Health Survey from 2000 and 2005
• Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for 1999-2000,
and 2004-2005.
• The Ethiopia Regional Food Security Index is an analysis of past trends
and not the present situation
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

5. Ethiopia Regional Food Security Index: 2000 - 2005
• The Ethiopia Regional Food Security Index is calculated for 10 of the 11
regions
• Representative at the regional level, and are disaggregated by rural and
urban areas
• We analyze differences among administrative regions and between rural
and urban areas within the country
• Proportion of people who are food energy deficient (undernourished)
• Prevalence of underweight children under the age of five
• Mortality rate among children less than five years of age
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

6. Undernourished population based on calorie consumption
• The HICE household level food consumption data were converted to calories
using food-to-calorie conversion factors compared against the Ethiopia food
composition tables produced by the Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research
Institute (EHNRI).
• The GHI for 2009 calculated calorie-based undernutrition for Ethiopia to be 46%,
based on the undernourishment cutoff of 1,820 kilocalories
• A national undernourishment rate using the FAO recommended 1,820 calorie
cutoff yielded a 38% undernutrition rate
• To ensure comparability of the Ethiopia Index with the GHI 2009, we adjusted
the calorie intake cutoff to 1,990 kilocalories per day, which yielded a national
calorie undernourishment rate of 46%. (we use this cut-off for the remainder of
the analysis)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

7. Underweight children and child mortality
• The first Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Ethiopia was conducted in
2000, which provided regional and rural / urban estimates of:
• Proportion of underweight children less than five years of age
(weight-for-age was less than two standard deviations)
•Mortality rate among children less than five years of age
(percentage of children born alive who die before the age of five)
•Another round of the DHS was conducted in 2005, which provided the same
series of estimates with a similar sample design
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

8. Results: Food Security Index 2000 - 2005
Improvements in Undernourishment Rates
• This analysis indicates substantial reductions in prevalence of
undernourishment – by 20 % points or more in each region over the five year
period.
• Addis Ababa, Harari, Oromia, Afar, and SNNPR decreased undernourishment
prevalence by at least 30 % points
• SNNPR showed the most improvement with a 39 % point difference.
• High rates of calorie undernourishment in comparison to the other indicators
remain serious: The prevalence of undernourishment in 6 of 10 regions is
greater than 50% of population
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

9. Results: Food Security Index 2000 - 2005
Improvements in Child Underweight and Mortality
• Most regions experienced progress in underweight and mortality rates , but to
a lesser extent.
• SNNPR experienced the most improvement in underweight prevalence of 19%
points
• Afar region decreased the child mortality rate by 11% points
• The child underweight prevalence is quite high in seven regions ( at least 34%)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

10. Results: Ethiopia Food Security Index 2000 - 2005
Table 1: Ethiopia Regional Food Security Index and its Underlying Components
Prevalence of Prevalence of
Calorie underweight Under 5
Undernourishment among children < 5 mortality rate National Food
(%) years (%) (%) Security Index
Region 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005
Addis Ababa 83.4 53.3 14.1 11.0 11.4 7.2 36.3 23.8
Harari 77.2 47.6 27.1 26.7 19.1 10.3 41.1 28.2
Oromia 72.5 42.3 42.4 34.4 19.4 12.2 44.8 29.6
SNNPR 84.6 45.5 53.7 34.7 19.2 14.2 52.5 31.5
Dire Dawa 79.4 51.3 30.8 29.6 17.6 13.6 42.6 31.5
Afar 84.9 52.7 50.5 34.1 22.9 12.3 52.8 33.0
Amhara 71.7 47.1 51.8 48.9 18.3 15.4 47.3 37.1
Tigray 83.0 59.3 47.9 41.9 16.9 10.6 49.3 37.3
Somali 77.9 53.0 44.3 50.9 18.4 9.3 46.9 37.7
Benishangul-
Gumuz 73.2 53.6 42.3 44.6 19.8 15.7 45.1 38.0
Ethiopia 65.9 46.0 10.5 10.5 18.8 13.2 31.7 25.1
• Nationally, food security improved approximately 6 percentage points
• Afar and SNNPR show the most improvement over time, progressing 20 and 21 percentage
points respectively
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

11. Results: Food Security Index 2000 - 2005
Ethiopia Food Security Index: 2000 and 2005
• Addis Ababa and Harari remain
the top performers in the ERHI
ranking and have progressed out
of the very serious category.
• Afar region moved from index
rate of 53 in 2000 to placing 6th
in 2005 with a score of 33.
• SNNPR dramatically improved
its score from 2000 to 2005, and
is currently 4th in the ERHI
ranking.
•Although much progress is seen,
still serious situation
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

12. Results: Food Security Index 2000 - 2005
Ethiopia Regional Food Security Index Percentage Point Change Improvement of
2005 the ERHI from 2000 to 2005
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

13. Results: Rural – Urban Dynamics in Food Security 2000 - 2005
• The rural and urban indicators of the Index Large Cities and Population Density in Ethiopia
have drastically improved
• Large urban areas (Addis and Dire Dawa)
undernourishment rates fell 19 % points
• The rural areas decreased from 63% to
45% undernourished.
•Undernourishment rates fell 33% points in
small urban areas between 2000 and 2005
Ethiopia Food Security Index - Rural and Urban Areas: 2000-2005
Prevalence of Calorie Prevalence of Under 5 mortality Ethiopia Food
Undernourishment underweight among rate Security Index
children < 5 years
Residence 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005
Large Urban 72.4 53.1 16.0 12.8 12.1 7.8 33.5 24.6
Small Urban 85.4 51.9 41.4 27.1 16.1 10.6 47.6 29.9
Rural 63.4 45.0 48.5 39.5 19.0 13.3 43.6 32.6
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

14. Results: Rural – Urban Dynamics in Food Security 2000 - 2005
• Large urban: improved 10% Ethiopia Regional Food Security Index and
points and 2005 Underlying Components: Rural and Urban Areas
90.0
• Rural areas : improved 11 % 80.0
points on the Ethiopia index 70.0
60.0
50.0
• Urban areas have 10 % points
40.0
higher prevalence of 30.0
undernourishment than rural 20.0
10.0
• Child mortality rates are twice 0.0
as high in rural areas than in 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005
large cities Prevalence of Calorie Prevalence of Under 5 mortality Ethiopia Food
Undernourishment underweight among rate Security Index
children < 5 years
• Rural areas have a 17% points
higher proportion of
underweight children than
large cities
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

15. Past Studies on Food Security in Ethiopia
•Previous studies have identified interventions that may help to improve the overall
condition of high risk households:
• A study completed in 2002 in North Wello modeled different development
interventions and their effects on household food insecurity (Ramakrishna, G. and
Assefa Demeke 2002)
• Increase in education of one person within the household would decrease the
probability of food insecurity by 31.5 percent in the household
• Livestock holdings (increased by one unit) diminish food insecurity by 24.38
percent
• Conversely, an increase in family size resulted in more vulnerability to food
insecurity
• Christiaensen and Alderman (2003) attribute parental education as a main
determinant of child nutrition in Ethiopia
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

16. Conclusions
• Disaggregating the Ethiopia Food Security Index provides greater insight into the
unique socio-economic conditions that communities confront
• Undernourishment (measured in terms of calorie consumption) contributes more
to regional ratings than the other underlying variables to the Ethiopia Index in 2005
•The prevalence of child underweight and mortality in Ethiopia is higher than most
Sub Saharan African countries.
• 7 of the 10 regions have a child underweight prevalence of at least 34%
• Access to sanitation and healthcare services among rural households is vital to
reducing child underweight and mortality rates.
• Pneumonia (28 percent) and diarrhea (24 percent) are major contributors to
child underweight and mortality rates (World Bank, 2004)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

17. Conclusions
• Considerable progress has been made in food insecurity in Ethiopia:
• Ethiopia finalized a Poverty Strategy Plan in 2002
• Ethiopia is very involved in The Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development
to End Poverty (PASDEP), which outlines priorities, action steps and evaluation
mechanisms in order to monitor current food security throughout the country
• The Food Security Program: to improve the food security status of up to 15
million rural Ethiopians
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

18. Conclusions
• The Food Security Program
•Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)
• PSNP assistance are provided to the four major regions at the Kebele
administrative level
• Currently, a total of 7.5 million chronically food insecure people receive
PSNP assistance
• Other Food Security Programs: agricultural extension, water and soil
conservation schemes, etc.
• Resettlement Program: move rural populations voluntarily to more
agriculturally viable areas
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

19. Conclusions
• Nationally, much improvement was experienced between 2000 and 2005:
• Undernourishment Rates: Decrease of 20% points (66% to 46%)
• Prevalence of Child Mortality: Decrease of 6% points (19% to 13%)
• Child Underweight: Remained the same, but improvements occurred within
the regions (between 3 and 11% point improvement)
• Regionally, improvement was experienced in all regions but to varying degrees
• SNNPR and Afar regions improved 20% and 21% in the overall index
• All regions improved at least 7% in the overall index
• Ethiopia has made progress in addressing these indicators through key
government programs, and continued development in key sectors
• It will be interesting to evaluate current progress on these indicators once new
survey data become available for 2010.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM