Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Seminar Series, March 18, 2012

1. Apa n, pyhsclu o e ad
sir ios s ooiaot ms n
t c c
s in in uaE io ia
a g rr t p
v lh
Tnu Bra , S f D r nKt O k , Ae ah
agy e r ta e o, a r
n d en c e in l yum
Syu Tf s
eom a see
1 Mr 21
8 a h 01
c

2. Ap a n
sir ios
t
 D vl mn d cus ad r isou o ‘o p r nie’
ee p et is r n pa f s n pot its
o o e x c u
 W y ot p o nt vs
h d h o r o ‘inet
e ’?
 E io ias n fa m
t p n ada l
h tis
 Ap a n
sir ios
t
 Adse rn mitn oah v smt g
eir o a a bio t ciee o e in
h
 A a ad p d frt r c it
n im n iml eoto e h
ie f a
 C mintn fr e ne ad e f
o b a o pe r cs n bl s
io fe ie
 R le cnet
e t ocp
ad s
 Eoo ic Stfin
cnm s a ic g
: is
 Pyhl ySl f ayl u o cn o
s o g: e- f c, o s fot l
c o f ic
e c r
 A t o o g: Apa n fue
n rp l y sir iosa r
h o t il s
 C m o e mn
o m n l et
e s
 G a/ pa n a imot todt m e ucs
ola ir ios r p r n t e r in sces
ss t e a e
 Eo tn hog t e r p ne occmt cs
vlio t uh im in e os t ir s ne
u r s u a

3. Apa n ad oe y
sir ios n p vr
t t
 W a cpcy oa ir cnt nlein
ek aait t s e a r st t
p a a o
l o n inet et
o r o vs n
w m s
 C pcyt a ir nt vn d t u d
aait o s e o eel isibt
p y r e
bten ic ad o r
e e rh n p o
w
 t p o hv f e r or so o neprne
h o r ae e re uc f w xe c
e w s e r ie
ado sr tno ohr cn ibtg ol l e
n bev io f t s ot u t o e l
a e, r in w v
o a ir io ( paua 20)
fs a n A pdr 01
p t i,
 t p o hv f e rsucs t a ct t
h o r ae e r eor
e w e o la o
l e
o
m dictno t ir e fadpr p n. Pio
o ifa io fh bl s n e et s r r
e ie c io
blfaot ail f p siv cags r t s
e s b u inbit o oite hne a h
ie y r e u
pre a d
e tt
p ue
 t p o hv llm ta n oa ct r or s
h o r aeit oivt t l a e uc
e t
e io l e s e
o
t m dyhir e fad e etn
o o ift bl s n pr p
e ie c io

4. M ta no r er
oivt f e a h
io r s c
 D fu t idn y fc o a ir ios
if l o et eet fs a n
ic t if f s p t
 I iv ulr or s fca ir ios
n ida e uc aets a n
d ’s s e f p t
 I iv ula ir ios fcr or s
n ida s a n aete uc
d ’s p t f s e
 Eoeoshc t a ir iosm i-
xgnu soko s a n: in
p t
d cmn rso l a scess rs
ou et ie fo l ucs t ie
a c o
s end t r d m
c ee
r o a o l sl t
n y ec dee
iniv ul
d idas
 Po l wo wt a d cmn r hv h hr
ep e h ah c ou et y ae ige
a
a ir ios n m r f wr-o k g eaior
s a n ad oeo a l in bhv u
p t r d o
 Im r po l inavaewt ad cmn r
f oe ep e il
lg a h ou et y
c a,
a ir ios n f wr-o k g eaior c a s
s a n ad o a l in bhv u inr s
p t r d o ee
mr
oe

5. Tet et1
r mn ( )
a
 Cut o 4 il e
l e f va s
sr lg
 I iv ul et et
n idat a n
d r m
 W h vae
it il
in lg
 T E T E T6 h ivn ice f d cmn r
R A MN : h ge tkt o ou et y
sr a
 4 hrm i- ou et ie o l ascestrs
sot ind cmn rs f cl css ie
a o u o
 PA EO: 6h ivn ice f a er tnl oie
L C B h ge tkt o r e ioam v
s r ca
 Lcl l is n hw sa p yd rudeta
oate io so uul le a n f ivl
ev l a
y o s s
 C T OL6 h uvyd u ntivn ice
ON R : h sr e bt o ge tkt
e s
 Vle r t et
il t a n
a em
g
 I 2vae int c s r f , 1 hueo s r
n il s h lt o 4 8 oshl a
lg e ue d e
ge tktt a ou et y
ivn ice o d cmn r
s a
 I t ohr2 vae, 1 hueo sa ge
nh te e il s 8 oshl r ivn
lg d e
tktt a oe
ice o m v
s

6. Tet et2
r mn ( )
a
Vle
il 4
ag
Vle
il 3
ag 6 oie
mv
6 oie
mv 6 ou et y
d cmn r a
6 ou et y
d cmn r a 6 oh g
nt in
6 oh g
nt in +
+ Vle
il 1
ag
1 d cmn r
8 ou et y a
1 mv
8 oie 6 oie
mv
6 ou et y
d cmn r a
6 oh g
nt in
Vle
il 2
ag +
6 oie
mv 1 mv
8 oie
R D= I it
E ne
vd
6 ou et y
d cmn r a
6 oh g
nt in
BU = Sr yd n
L E uv e ad
e
init
ved + L h= mv
igt oie
1 d cmn r
8 ou et y a
BA K Sr ydn
L C = uv e, o
e
init
ve D r= d cmn r
ak ou et y
a

7. Smlg
apin
 Vle r t et
il t a n
a em
g
 Vle g ue in c s ro 4 il e
il s r pd t lt s f va s
ag o o ue lg
 T e vae r d m e: 2 ra et cn o
hn il sa o isd t t n 2 ot l
lg n em , r
 W h ec vae
it ah il
in lg
 H ueo sad m sl t f t a et
oshl r o l e c do r t n
d n y ee rem ,
cn oad leo
ot ln p cb
r a
 T ktf ha ad ed sos in ah
ice o ed n ha’sp ue ec
s r
hueo
oshl d
 N r le et
o e a mn
pc
 3 ons
rud
 Bsle r t a etSp D c 00
a in pe r t n ( et e 21)
e - em -
 Apa n r et md ty frra et
sir iose sim eia lae t t n
t t e t em
 Flw p Mr a 21)
oo - ( a My 01
l u -

8. Bl c ad o p ne
ane n cml c
a ia
Treatment Placebo Control Total
Given ticket 705 729 722 2156
Interviewed baseline 696 725 704 2125
Went to screening 670 705 0 1375
Did second round 686 657 662 2005
All sections 659 657 662 1978
Non-compliance rate 6.52 9.88 8.31 8.26
 Smlbl cd n edrit ayae n m sot ms
a p ane o gne l r , g ad ot u o e
e a , ec c

9. Apa n esr
sir io ma e
t us
20 0 E B vl o
0,00 T ~ a e f
u
 4 imnios
d es n
oe a et fhtrm
n hr so caf
v o  A naino e cs
nul cm in a h
oe et e
n hc r
a
 Ast– huef nuecnu e go s eic s
s s os, u it , osmro d, vh l
e r r e
 Scl a s we e po lin h vae s
oias t – ht r ep t il a
tu h e e l g k
10 0 E B vl o
0,00 T ~ a e f
u
oe a et fhtrm
n hr so caf
v o ave n eis n
dic o dcios
hl hc r
a a et e
f a
 Lvlfdctn f l scil
eeo eua o o ethd
io d
1 nul
A na  “W aish l eo <> yu oll t
ht t e lf
e v o wu ik o
d e
cs
a h
0T
EB ino e
cm ah v?
ciee”
 S na isd
t dr e
a d

10. Ap a n
sir ios
t
Income Wealth Status Education
Treatment effect 0.029 -0.118 0.072 0.054
0.704 0.052* 0.381 0.548
Placebo effect 0.087 -0.088 0.003 0.068
0.163 0.262 0.967 0.422
Treatment - placebo -0.059 -0.029 0.069 -0.014
0.341 0.826 0.111 0.194
Respondents 1911 1911 1911 1911
Villages 64 64 64 64
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported.
Standard errors are robust and corrected for clustering.
Controls for gender, literacy, age, baseline treatment status and time.
 N s p t a et fc adinat s h dc e
o iml r t n eet n, f , a l t el in
e em f s c ig in
wah sir ios
el a a n
t p t
 Fr e ineta n n il e r t et
ut r vs t o va t a n
h ig io l em
g

11. Pyhscl esr ( ) l u o cn o
s ooiama e 1: o s fot l
c us c r
 C msrm ot ’s16)scl a in t oy
o e f R t r ( 96 oial r gh r
o e en e
 Et nlot l e fht u o e a nt e r ind y
x racn o bl t ot ms r o dt m e b
e r : ie a c e e
pr nlfr
e oaeot
s fs
 Ie acn o blfht u o e a cn gn uo atn
n r lot l e t ot ms r ot et p n c s
tn r : ie a c e in io
 Ie aa oia d it m r ate u u o vl d ol
n r ls ct wh oe c pr it fa e ga,
tn s e iv s u s
in r a n ek gatnm u dcio mk gsne f
f mt sein, u o os eis n ain, es o
o io o
wle g
ebin.
l
 Ma r is n dp tn feesn 18)
es e a aatio o Lvno ( 91
u a
 4 o tcl 1 it s
p in s e 5 e
a, m
 C ac
hne
 “T a r t x n m l is ot ld y cidn lhne
o g aet t yif cn oe b ac et/ ac
e e e rl ac
hpeins
apn g .”
 “Ofn hr is ocac o poetg y e oain r tf m
t t e n hne frt in m pr nl t e sr
e e c s es o
bduk apn g
a l hpeins
c .”
 P wr lt r
o e uoh s
f e
 “M l is h f cn oe b ohr o e upo l
yif ciey ot ld y t p wr lep .”
e l rl e f e
 “Po ll msl ae e llcac o poetg u pr nl
ep ik y f v vr it hne frt in or e oa
e e eh yt e c s
in r twe t y oft it t s o m r p wr lep .”
t e s hn h cnicwh h e f oe o e upo l
es e l o f e
 Ie a
nrl
tn
 “W e Ie waI at ’s sa bcue wr d a f it
hn gt ht wn it uul eas I ok hr o .”
, ly e d r
 “M l is e r ind y y w atn.”
yif dt m e b m o n c s
e e io

12. Pyhscl esr ( ) C ue o p vr
s ooiama e 2: ass foe y
c us t
 Pr p n o cue o p vr
e et s fass foe y
c io t
 Fain ( 92 At u no P vr Sa
eg ’s17) tibt f oe y cl
r io r t e
 4 o tcl
p in s e
a
 “Im o gor d o sm r sn po l
a gin t e yu o e e os ep
a a e
geo wy o r ep a p o.”
iv f h p o po l r o r
r e e
 S ut a
tc r
r ul
 “T e isibtn f n bten o rn rh
h d t u o l d e e p o ad ic
r io a w
po lis nvn
ep uee”
e
 “T e lk pot its u t t f ththy
hya o p r nie de o h a t t
c u e c a e
cm f m o ra ils
o er p o f ie”
o m
 Ftis
a lic
at
 “T e hv bda / s y
hy ae a fe et ”
t d in
 “T e lkuk
hya l ”
c c
 I iv ul
n ida
d
 “T e lkh ail t mng m ny r t r
hya t bit o aae oe o oh
c e y e
ae”
st
ss
 “T e d ntc e se t imrv t ir e”
hy o o at l eko poe h l s
iv y e iv

13. Pyhscl esr
s ooiama e
c us
LOCUS ON CONTROL CAUSES OF POVERTY
Chance Internal Powerful others Fate Structural Individual
Treatment effect -0.036 -0.055 0.078 -0.151 0.094 0.106
0.674 0.565 0.373 0.055* 0.146 0.113
Placebo effect -0.064 -0.045 -0.005 -0.045 0.08 0.119
0.411 0.593 0.941 0.549 0.222 0.079*
Treatment - placebo 0.027 -0.01 0.083 -0.106 0.014 -0.013
0.528 0.683 0.597 0.905 0.296 0.435
Respondents 1911 1911 3822 3822 3822 3822
Villages 64 64 64 64 64 64
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported.
Standard errors are robust and corrected for clustering.
Controls for gender, literacy, age, baseline treatment status and time.
 D c a in rp r n fr t etru woar t t
er s po ot o t a n g p h g e h
ee io em o e a
p vr hs a lic cue
oe y a “fa t” ass
t tis
 N ainr s in rp r n fr t etru woar
er c a po ot o t a n g p h g e
ee io em o e
t t oe y a “iniv ulcue
h p vr hs d ida ass
a t ”

14. Sv g
ains
 A on whr nrm n dp se
m ut it a f ad eoit
dw o d
in ainson in h lt ot
s gl s t a mn
v a es h
 Mme h o ad ot u n t id ir
e br ip fn cn ibt so d
s r io
(brloie s h h a aoinue
uiasc t wic cn l sr
ie s
aa sl s fo e o l s c)
gint so hms r et k
o iv o
 Mme h o ad ot u n oiq u
e br ip fn cn ibt t q b
s r io
(ains rusad o n rs ins
s g g p) n vl t ya g
v o ua v
adon g usu b N O
n l s r p rn y G
a o

15. Sv g
ains
Has savings Total savings Withdrawn from savings Deposited in savings
Had baseline Had baseline
Whole sample savings Whole sample savings
Treatment effect -0.001 57.68 35.015 118.328 30.93 22.271
0.959 0.677 0.017** 0.043** 0.033** 0.079**
Placebo effect 0.017 -73.192 -15.881 -56.33 -34.773 -127.511
0.477 0.692 0.509 0.6 0.5 0.599
Treatment - placebo -0.018 130.873 50.895 174.658 65.703 149.782
0.099 0.401 0.378 0.325 0.557 0.486
Respondents 3822 3822 3822 887 3822 887
Villages 64 64 64 59 64 59
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported.
Standard errors are robust and corrected for clustering.
Controls for gender, literacy, age, baseline treatment status and time.
 I r s in whr a ad dps in s insa ogt a et
nee
ca it a l n eoit t a g m n r t n
dw o v em
gu
rp
o
 S a nt c a in ains
ml e inr s s g
l ee v
 N eeto ko l g o V L rg m e, mme h o V L r
o fc n nw de f S por ms e br ip f S o
f s e a s
id irc n ibtn oid irec m n
d , ot u t d ah ot
r io h

16. D mn f c d
e ado r it
re
 A t l as
c al n
u o
 N me o l n t e ina s m n s
u br f asa n ltix ot
o k s h
 A on o ec l n
m ut faho a
 N eet
o fc
f s
 H p t tal n
yoh icl as
e o
 “Smoerm m rfac int tn a e o
o en f a ic inne s u cm t
o o it io
yu n oe d ol d o ay m ut f oe
o ad fr t e yu n a on o m ny
fe n
yu s whu ca in in rso sr e hr .”
o a it thr g t et re ic ca e
k o g e v g
 “H w uh olyu s f ?
o mc wu o a o ”
d k r
 Ioe er
n n ya
 Ife er
niv yas
 It ya
n e er
n s
 W awu yu s t m nyo?
ht ol o ue h oe f
d e r

17. H p t tal n
yoh icl as
e o
DESIRED HYPOTHETICAL LOANS
In 1 year In 5 years In 10 years
Treatment effect 1310.722 5058.554 3238.836
0.127 0.024** 0.147
Placebo effect 1173.248 1095.106 -1596.74
0.166 0.559 0.569
Treatment - placebo 137.474 3963.448 4835.576
0.137 0.949 0.083
Respondents 1966 1966 1966
Villages 63 63 63
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported.
 I r s in m utr t etru wu a f in
n e e a on t a n g p ol s o
ca em o d k r
hp t tal n in ya
yoh icl as 5 er
e o s

18. G ne adit ay fca ir ios
edrn l r aets a n
ec f p t
CONTROL VARIABLES
Male Literate Age
Aspirations Income +  Mn n t l r e
e ad h it a
e et
Wealth + +  H hrsir ios
ige a a n
p t
Status + +
 Lsblf cac ad
es e in hne n
ie
Education + +
Locus of Chance - - +
fe
at
control Powerful others + +  M r blf p wr l
oe e in o ef
ie u
Internal - - ohr
t s
e
Causes of Fate - - +  M r blf iniv ul
oe e in d ida
ie
poverty Structural cn o
ot l
r
Individual + +
 H hr yohta
ige hp t icl
e
Savings Has savings - +
dmn f c d
e ado r it
re
Total savings +
Withdrawn  Le t po lhv
it a ep ae
re e
Deposited
Hypothetical 1 year + + -
h hrains
ige s g
v
loan 5 years + + -
10 years + + -

19. C nlio
oc s n
u
 Pe inrr us
rim a e l
l y st
 Mn n l r e ep hv h hr
e adit a po l ae ige
et e
a ir ios n u ma r
s a n o or es e
p t u
 Sm eeto in r n n e c d
o e fc f t v t dt t
f s e e io ee
 blfaoth cue o p vr
e s b u t ass foe y
ie e t
 s ins n ue fain acut
a g ad s o s g con
v , v s
 hp t tal n
yoh icl as
e o
 bt o or esr o a ir ios
u nt u ma e fs a n
us p t
 Fr e ( oe t c r)aas
ut rm r sut a nlis
h r ul y
 Epnin in r t Ml i, Pkt v
xad g t e – a w ais n ia
es a a
IR
F I
P

20. C n ibtn
ot u s
r io
 R sa h s t c: Fny Tds
eer a is ne aae aes
c sa e
 D tc ain: Fny Tds , I aim a e
a l n g aae aes b h H s n
ae e r s
 Sr y aae et eaih ef e
uv mngmn Bzb T sy,
e : a
T wdo A a
e o rs bt e
 A m isa e up r Mh t euiaKt
d int t spot al Mkr, a
r iv : e e
PudnC A s fC R f il tr
rde, S E tf A Ea itos
a, ca
 P ce sr yr in ad up r Fl
oktuv t in g n spot e
e a : ix
Sh iein
cm d g
 P ce sr y up r A de Z it , J t
oktuv spot nr el u in
e : w in s
Sne r ica PyeN uen a ciwl
adf , R hr an, ar Kr h a
u d e a l
a
 Avrcpb ad il gem f
e aal n wl t o
y e in a
eu e tr
nmr os
a
 Ala ic at
l r ipn
pt s

21. 