International Food Policy Research Institute/ Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (IFPRI/ ESSP)and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) Coordinated a conference with Agriculutral Transformation Agency (ATA) and Ministry of Agriculutrue (MoA) on Teff Value Chain at Hilton Hotel Addis Ababa on October 10, 2013.

1. Demandassessment& supply responsesin
Ethiopia’steff seed system
David J Spielman  Dawit K Mekonnen
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
October 10, 2013
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Seed,science,and supply
• How do we think about seed?
• The farmer’s “means of production”
• The embodiment of technological change
• The foundation of an agricultural transformation
• A viable investment opportunity
• The object of contested rights
What role do policymakers play in encouraging both production
and innovation that benefit society as whole?

3. Measuringprogressin seedsystemdevelopment
• Conventional measures of seed system performance
• Seed demand estimates
• Seed production quantities
• Seed replacement rates
• Certified seed use
• Cultivated area under improved seed use
Do these measures adequately capture the growth and transformation
of a seed system and its benefits for society?

4. Teff seedsupply deficits,*1995/96–2011/12
* Based on official estimates of demand Source: MoA (2012)
-75,000
-65,000
-55,000
-45,000
-35,000
-25,000
-15,000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
Quintals

5. Teff seedsupply deficits by variety,*2010/11
-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000
Cr-37
D-Z-01-196
Kuncho (D-Z-387)
D-Z-01-354
D-Z-01-974
D-Z-01-182
Lakech
D-Z-01-1282
Quintals of teff seed
Variety
* Produced in 2009/10 and supplied for the 2010/11 crop season Source: MoA (2012)

6. Areaunder improved teff, 1995/96–2011/12
Source: CSA (Various years)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Percentage
'000hectares
Cultivated area (‘000 ha)
Cultivated area (%)

7. Why should farmersbuy seed?
• To obtain better quality seed
• Higher rates of purity, germination
• To obtain a better cultivar
• Yield, stress resistance, taste
• To renew temporary genetic gains
• Heterosis expression in hybrids
• To recover from a disaster
• Drought, flood, disease

8. What should we measure?
• Research and regulatory system performance
• R&D investment trends, cultivar release rate, regulatory costs
• Costs of regulation and regulatory bottlenecks
• Production and marketing system performance
• Seed quality, cultivar age
• Production/distribution costs
• Market structure and concentration
• Farmer preferences and behaviors
• Seed saving trends, trait preferences, adoption determinants

9. Publicspending on agriculturalR&D,1981–2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Constant(2005)US$PPP
Source: Flaherty, Kelemework, and Kelemu (2010); ASTI (2013)

10. Averageage of varietiesin production,c. 2010
Crop Average age of
varieties in
production*
(years)
Portion of seed
from new
varieties**
(%)
New varieties in
production as a % of
new varieties released
(%)
Teff 22.6 3.4 6
Wheat
(bread) 13.9 12.7 30
Maize
(hybrid)*** 15.1 8.2 57
* Weighted average using quantity produced as weights (see Brennan and Byerlee (1991)
**New varieties denotes varieties released since 1999
*** Produced by ESE
Source: Authors’ calculations

11. Market structure:Sourceof teff seed
86
12
2 0 0
72
16
2
8
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Self/saved
seed
Other farmer Grain trader Cooperative Bureau of
Agriculture
Percentage
Source of seed
Black teff
White teff
Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012)
N=1448

12. Years since last purchase of teff seed,2012
15
11
16
12
5
1 1 1
0
2
5
30
28
12
15
12
2
1 1 1
0 0
2
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >10 Never
Percentage
Years
Black teff
White teff
Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012)
N=1469

13. Teff seedingrate by farm size
29
38
36
1 1
5
9 8
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Large
farmer
Medium
farmer
Small
farmer
kg/ha
White teff farmers
37
46
45
2
0 0
3
6
9
Large farmer Medium
farmer
Small farmer
Black teff farmers
Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012)
Small farmers: <0.9 ha; medium: , 0.9 to 2 ha; large: >2 ha
N=1910
Own-saved seed
Seed obtained for free or in barter
Purchased seed

14. Whiteteff varietiesunder cultivation
Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012)
N=133
23
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
60
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentage
Variety name

15. Non-yieldtraits preferredby teff farmers
46
23
11
2 4
14
1
28
9
29
1 5
28
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentage
Trait/attribute
Black teff White teff
Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012)
Note: Based on responses to top two preferred traits, excluding yield
N=309

16. Policy and investmentpriorities
• Strategic oversight and policy implementation
• Build decision-making tools for informed policy making
• Research system
• Increase investment and reform efforts in research system
• Improve equitable access to public research materials
Regulatory system
• Strengthen seed quality monitoring in the marketplace
• Production, distribution, and marketing
• Level the playing field: Reallocate public/private roles

17. Thank you
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