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Food Prices, Consumption and
       Nutrition in Ethiopia:
Implications of Recent Price Shocks

                       Paul Dorosh
    International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
       (Ethiopia Strategy Support Program, ESSP-2)



             Institute of Medicine Workshop on
 Mitigating the Nutritional Impacts of the Global Food Crisis
                       July 14-26, 2009
Outline of Presentation
• Background: Geography, Economy, Nutrition
• Determinants of Food Prices in Ethiopia
  – Nominal and real price movements
  – Changing determinants of wheat prices over time
• Implications for household consumption and
  nutrition
  – Household food consumption patterns
• Safety nets
• Concluding observations
Topography in Ethiopia varies widely, even
         across short distances
Annual rainfall varies across space
Rainfall is highest and least variable in the western part of the country
                  and the western slopes of mountains
Population is concentrated along
           the primary road network




But only 16 percent of the population resides in urban areas
(cities of 5,000 or more people)
Much of Ethiopia is remote
   (>10 hours travel time to a city of 50k or more people)
45% of the population lives >5 hours from a city of 50k+




 Source: Schmidt (2009).
Ethiopia: Cereal Production and Real Prices
                             16                                                                                                     200

                             14
                                                                                                                                    180




                                                                                                                                          Real Price Index (2000/01 = 100)
                             12
      Production (mn tons)




                                                                                                                                    160
                             10

                             8                                                                                                      140

                             6
                                                                                                                                    120
                             4
                                                                                                                                    100
                             2

                              -                                                                                                     80
                                             2001/02



                                                        2002/03



                                                                  2003/04



                                                                                   2004/05




                                                                                                                          2007/08
                                  2000/01




                                                                                             2005/06



                                                                                                            2006/07
                                            Cereals (mehrer)                Total Cereals              Real Price Index


Source: Dorosh and Ahmed (2009); Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA)
and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) data.
Measures of Malnutrition
                 for Ethiopia and Kenya
                                              Prevalence of
                    Proportion of           Underweight in
             undernourished in the   children under 5 years Under 5 Mortality
                 population (%) 1/                   (%) 2/          rate (%)     GHI 2009
Ethiopia               2003-2007                      2005              2007
                              46.0                     34.6              11.9         30.8

Kenya                   2003-2007                    2003               2007
                              32.0                    16.5               12.1         20.2



 Notes:
 1/ Proportion of the population with calorie deficiency. Average over a three year
 period from FAO.
 2/ Figures shown are for the latest years available for the period 2002-2007. Based on
 the WHO Child Growth Standards revised in 2006.
 GHI denotes Global Hunger Index, an unweighted average of the other three
 measures of malnutrition shown in the table.
Ethiopia: Poverty Trends
                  1995/96 to 2004/05
                    1995/96               1999/2000               2004/05

             Po       P1      P2     Po      P1     P2     Po      P1       P2

Rural        47.5     13.4 5.3       45.4 12.2 4.6         39.3 8.5         2.7
Urban        33.2     9.9     4.1    36.9 10.1 3.9         35.1 7.7         2.6
National     45.5     12.9 5.1       44.2 11.9 4.5         38.7 8.3         2.7

  Notes: P0 denotes % of population below the poverty line; P1
  measures the average depth of poverty; P2 is a measure of the
  severity of poverty.
  Source: Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency, Household Income,
  Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HICES) data.
Ethiopia: Nominal Cereal Prices
                                                 (Wholesale, Addis Ababa)
               1200


               1000


                         800
  Price (Birr/quintal)




                         600


                         400


                         200


                           0
                               Jan-06




                                                                                                                           Jan-09
                                                            Jan-07




                                                                                            Jan-08
                                        May-06




                                                                       May-07




                                                                                                                                    May-09
                                                                                                     May-08
                                                                                  Sep-07




                                                                                                                  Sep-08
                                                  Sep-06




                                                    Maize            Mixed Teff            Wheat              Sorghum


Source: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) data.
Ethiopia: Real Cereal Prices
                                                           (Wholesale, Addis Ababa)
                                 600


                                 500
   Price (Birr (2006)/quintal)




                                 400


                                 300


                                 200


                                 100


                                   0
                                       Jan-06




                                                                            Jan-07




                                                                                                           Jan-08




                                                                                                                                            Jan-09
                                                                   Sep-06




                                                                                                  Sep-07




                                                                                                                               Sep-08
                                                  May-06




                                                                                         May-07




                                                                                                                      May-08




                                                                                                                                                     May-09
                                                                                                  Month/Year

                                                           Maize                     Mixed Teff               Wheat                     Sorghum

Source: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) data deflated by the national
CPI (December 2006 = 100).
Wheat Domestic and Border Prices
                                              (US$ / ton)

                800

                700

                600

                500
Price ($/ton)




                400

                300

                200

                100

                 0




                                                     Month/Year


                      Wholesale Price Addis     Import Parity Addis   Export Parity Addis
Wheat Domestic and Border Prices
                                              (Birr/ quintal)

                       800

                       700

                       600
Price (Birr/quintal)




                       500

                       400

                       300

                       200

                       100

                        0




                                                           Month/Year
                             White wheat wholesale Addis      Import Parity   Import Sales Price
Determinants of Wheat Prices
                        Four Market Regimes
• January 2000-June 2005: Domestic wheat prices were generally between
  import and export parity
    – Given levels of official imports (including food aid), there was little incentive
      for private sector imports of ordinary wheat
    – Domestic prices were determined by domestic supply (including official
      imports) and demand

• July 2005-March 2007: Domestic wheat prices were generally at import
  parity levels
    – Private sector imports adjusted to equate total supply and domestic demand
      at the import parity price

• April 2007- May 2008: Domestic wheat prices were again below import
  parity
    – Given sharp increases in world prices, private sector imports were not
      profitable

• June 2008 – May 2009: Domestic wheat prices were above import parity
    – Restrictions on foreign exchange for imports prevented private imports from
      taking advantage of profitable import opportunities
Domestic Wheat Prices and Import
        Parity, 1998-99 to 2008-09*
                            White Wheat                    White Wheat           Wheat       Nominal
                             Wholesale        Exchange      Wholesale      Import Parity   Protection
Crop Year                         Addis           Rate            Addis           Addis    Coefficient
(October-September)             (Birr/kg)       (Birr/$)         ($/ton)         ($/ton)    (percent)

1998-99                             1.97           7.87           248.9           119.2         12.8%
1999-00                             2.06           8.30           248.0           113.2         14.9%
2000-01                             1.49           8.52           175.4           130.8        -25.0%
2001-02                             1.28           8.69           147.5           137.1        -38.5%
2002-03                             1.98           8.72           227.1           155.1        -11.9%
2003-04                             1.72           8.78           195.8           161.9        -26.4%
2004-05                             1.85           8.83           209.6           155.2        -20.1%
2005-06                             2.42           8.86           272.5           187.5         -8.5%
2006-07                             2.84           9.06           313.1           231.1        -10.3%
2007-08                             4.77           9.60           493.3           371.5         -2.7%
2008-09*                            5.58          10.76           522.3           246.7         30.4%

Average 2000-01 - 04-05             1.66           8.71           191.1           148.0        -24.4%
Average 2005/06 - 07-08             3.34           9.17           359.6           263.3         -7.2%


* October 2008 – April 2009.
Source: EGTE data; Dorosh and Ahmed (2009).
Real Wheat Prices and Import Parity
           1998-99 to 2008-09*
                                                Real          Real             Real            Real             Real
                       Import Price    Import Price      Exchange     Import Price    Import Parity       Wholesale
                        CIF Djibouti    CIF Djibouti          Rate     CIF Djibouti           Price            Price
                             ($/ton)    ($2004/ton) (Jly 2004=100) (Birr 2004/qntl) (Birr 2004/qntl) (Birr 2004/qntl)
1998-99                        161.8           186.2          94.3            149.1           204.4            228.9
1999-00                        155.9           180.7          95.2            146.7           203.2            233.4
2000-01                        173.5           209.1          95.8            181.9           244.8            182.8
2001-02                        179.7           215.2          99.4            196.8           262.7            161.1
2002-03                        197.7           220.4          94.7            185.2           241.2            211.5
2003-04                        204.6           208.8          99.8            183.6           238.8            175.3
2004-05                        195.2           190.9          96.4            161.0           216.3            172.0
2005-06                        222.5           209.6          90.4            163.2           218.6            199.8
2006-07                        262.4           232.4          84.2            167.0           222.1            199.9
2007-08                        401.5           307.2          77.2            204.6           258.4            239.6
2008-09*                       276.7           227.5          56.8            128.7           186.4            242.3

Ave 00-01 to 04-05            190.1           208.9            97.2           181.7            240.7           180.6
Ave 05/06 to 07-08            295.4           249.7            83.9           178.3            233.0           213.1

03/04-08/09 %change          55.4%           19.5%          -13.7%            -1.9%            -3.2%          18.0%

 * October 2008 – April 2009.
 Source: EGTE data; Dorosh and Ahmed (2009).
Summary: Wheat Markets
• Wheat price formation regimes have changed several
  times between 2000 and 2009:
   – For most of this period, domestic prices have NOT been
     determined by international border prices
• Given foreign exchange rationing starting in March
  2008, private sector wheat importers have had
  restricted access to foreign exchange
   – Domestic wheat prices have been above wheat import
     parity prices since May 2008
• Government sales of its wheat imports from July to
  October 2008 successfully reduced domestic market
  prices
   – Sizeable rents accrued to those with access to wheat
     imports at official prices
Ethiopia: Calorie Consumption
                         2004/05
                                              Other Enset/ Root       Pulses/      Animal
                        Teff     Wheat       Cereals      Crops      Oilseeds    Products       Other      Total
National                248       266          832         234           214          76         215      2,086
  Urban                 588       181          495          64           285          85         240      1,937
  Rural                 192       280          887         262           203          75         211      2,110

Expenditure
Quintiles
  Q1                    173         215         708           174         148          61           192   1,672
  Q2                    224         259         812           208         192          67           202   1,964
  Q3                    225         275         910           256         213          81           205   2,163
  Q4                    273         304         907           252         247          74           220   2,277
  Q5                    349         280         828           282         273          98           258   2,367



   Source: Calculated from Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA) Household Income, Consumption
   and Expenditure Survey (HICES) 2004/05 data; Seyoum et al. (2009).
Ethiopia: Calorie Consumption
                      2004/05

                       Urban

                                         Teff
                                         Wheat
                                         Other Cereals
                                         Enset/ Root Crops
                                         Pulses/ Oilseeds
                                         Animal Products
                                         Other




Source: Calculated from Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA) Household Income, Consumption
and Expenditure Survey (HICES) 2004/05 data; Seyoum et al. (2009).
Livelihoods Analysis
• Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU)
   – Part of Government of Ethiopia’s early warning system
     within the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development
   – Baseline data on 173 livelihood zones using key informant
     questionnaires
   – Includes calculations of impacts of shocks on household
     access to food based on changes in prices or losses of
     production
   – Able to highlight sub-regional food security issues that may
     not be captured in regional analyses (e.g. effects of
     production losses of non-cereal food crops such as enset
     and sweet potatoes)

   See http://www.feg-consulting.com/spotlight/feg_liu_pp8opt.pdf
Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)
• PSNP introduced 2005
   – Initially covered 264 chronically food insecure woredas in four
     regions (out of approximately 500 woredas in Ethiopia)
   – Pastoralist areas initially excluded
   – Two sub-programs
       • Public works (PW) schemes: pays workers in cash or in-kind for their
         labor on labor-intensive projects designed to build community assets
       • Direct support (DS): provided to labor-scarce households including
         those whose primary income earners are elderly or disabled
• Other Food Security Programme (OFSP)
   – Provides at least one of several productivity-enhancing
     transfers or services, such as access to credit and agricultural
     extension services
   – Designed to encourage households to increase income
     generated from agricultural activities and to build up assets.
   – Covered one-third of PSNP recipients in 2006 baseline survey
Impact of the PSNP
• An evaluation of the PSNP in 2006 showed impacts varied
  by household participation
• Households that received at least half of the amount of
  transfers it should have received according to the design of
  the program:
   – Had a reduced likelihood of having a very low caloric intake
   – Increased their mean calorie availability by 183
     kcals/person/day
• Households that also received access to any component of
  the OFSP are more likely to
   – Be food secure (increase mean calorie availability by 230
     kcals/person/day from 2347 to 2577)
   – Borrow for productive purposes
   – Use improved agricultural technologies
   – Operate nonfarm own business activities

   Source: Gilligan, Hoddinott and Tafesse (2008).
Concluding Observations
• Over the last two decades, Ethiopia has made impressive
  strides in enhancing food security by
   – Increasing domestic production
   – Investing in infrastructure to improve markets and
   – launching the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)
• Recent price shocks in Ethiopia are not, in general, due
  to increases in food prices in international markets
• Many households remain vulnerable to food production
  shocks due to droughts or disease that may be specific to
  small regions within the country
• Food security could be further enhanced through
   – Continued high growth in agricultural production and
     incomes of poor households
   – Expansion of the Other Food Security Program (OFSP) and
   – Targeted nutrition efforts

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Food Prices, Consumption and Nutrition in Ethiopia:Implications of Recent Price Shocks

  • 1. Food Prices, Consumption and Nutrition in Ethiopia: Implications of Recent Price Shocks Paul Dorosh International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (Ethiopia Strategy Support Program, ESSP-2) Institute of Medicine Workshop on Mitigating the Nutritional Impacts of the Global Food Crisis July 14-26, 2009
  • 2. Outline of Presentation • Background: Geography, Economy, Nutrition • Determinants of Food Prices in Ethiopia – Nominal and real price movements – Changing determinants of wheat prices over time • Implications for household consumption and nutrition – Household food consumption patterns • Safety nets • Concluding observations
  • 3. Topography in Ethiopia varies widely, even across short distances
  • 4. Annual rainfall varies across space Rainfall is highest and least variable in the western part of the country and the western slopes of mountains
  • 5. Population is concentrated along the primary road network But only 16 percent of the population resides in urban areas (cities of 5,000 or more people)
  • 6. Much of Ethiopia is remote (>10 hours travel time to a city of 50k or more people) 45% of the population lives >5 hours from a city of 50k+ Source: Schmidt (2009).
  • 7. Ethiopia: Cereal Production and Real Prices 16 200 14 180 Real Price Index (2000/01 = 100) 12 Production (mn tons) 160 10 8 140 6 120 4 100 2 - 80 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2007/08 2000/01 2005/06 2006/07 Cereals (mehrer) Total Cereals Real Price Index Source: Dorosh and Ahmed (2009); Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA) and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) data.
  • 8. Measures of Malnutrition for Ethiopia and Kenya Prevalence of Proportion of Underweight in undernourished in the children under 5 years Under 5 Mortality population (%) 1/ (%) 2/ rate (%) GHI 2009 Ethiopia 2003-2007 2005 2007 46.0 34.6 11.9 30.8 Kenya 2003-2007 2003 2007 32.0 16.5 12.1 20.2 Notes: 1/ Proportion of the population with calorie deficiency. Average over a three year period from FAO. 2/ Figures shown are for the latest years available for the period 2002-2007. Based on the WHO Child Growth Standards revised in 2006. GHI denotes Global Hunger Index, an unweighted average of the other three measures of malnutrition shown in the table.
  • 9. Ethiopia: Poverty Trends 1995/96 to 2004/05 1995/96 1999/2000 2004/05 Po P1 P2 Po P1 P2 Po P1 P2 Rural 47.5 13.4 5.3 45.4 12.2 4.6 39.3 8.5 2.7 Urban 33.2 9.9 4.1 36.9 10.1 3.9 35.1 7.7 2.6 National 45.5 12.9 5.1 44.2 11.9 4.5 38.7 8.3 2.7 Notes: P0 denotes % of population below the poverty line; P1 measures the average depth of poverty; P2 is a measure of the severity of poverty. Source: Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency, Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HICES) data.
  • 10. Ethiopia: Nominal Cereal Prices (Wholesale, Addis Ababa) 1200 1000 800 Price (Birr/quintal) 600 400 200 0 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-07 Jan-08 May-06 May-07 May-09 May-08 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-06 Maize Mixed Teff Wheat Sorghum Source: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) data.
  • 11. Ethiopia: Real Cereal Prices (Wholesale, Addis Ababa) 600 500 Price (Birr (2006)/quintal) 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 Month/Year Maize Mixed Teff Wheat Sorghum Source: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) data deflated by the national CPI (December 2006 = 100).
  • 12. Wheat Domestic and Border Prices (US$ / ton) 800 700 600 500 Price ($/ton) 400 300 200 100 0 Month/Year Wholesale Price Addis Import Parity Addis Export Parity Addis
  • 13. Wheat Domestic and Border Prices (Birr/ quintal) 800 700 600 Price (Birr/quintal) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Month/Year White wheat wholesale Addis Import Parity Import Sales Price
  • 14. Determinants of Wheat Prices Four Market Regimes • January 2000-June 2005: Domestic wheat prices were generally between import and export parity – Given levels of official imports (including food aid), there was little incentive for private sector imports of ordinary wheat – Domestic prices were determined by domestic supply (including official imports) and demand • July 2005-March 2007: Domestic wheat prices were generally at import parity levels – Private sector imports adjusted to equate total supply and domestic demand at the import parity price • April 2007- May 2008: Domestic wheat prices were again below import parity – Given sharp increases in world prices, private sector imports were not profitable • June 2008 – May 2009: Domestic wheat prices were above import parity – Restrictions on foreign exchange for imports prevented private imports from taking advantage of profitable import opportunities
  • 15. Domestic Wheat Prices and Import Parity, 1998-99 to 2008-09* White Wheat White Wheat Wheat Nominal Wholesale Exchange Wholesale Import Parity Protection Crop Year Addis Rate Addis Addis Coefficient (October-September) (Birr/kg) (Birr/$) ($/ton) ($/ton) (percent) 1998-99 1.97 7.87 248.9 119.2 12.8% 1999-00 2.06 8.30 248.0 113.2 14.9% 2000-01 1.49 8.52 175.4 130.8 -25.0% 2001-02 1.28 8.69 147.5 137.1 -38.5% 2002-03 1.98 8.72 227.1 155.1 -11.9% 2003-04 1.72 8.78 195.8 161.9 -26.4% 2004-05 1.85 8.83 209.6 155.2 -20.1% 2005-06 2.42 8.86 272.5 187.5 -8.5% 2006-07 2.84 9.06 313.1 231.1 -10.3% 2007-08 4.77 9.60 493.3 371.5 -2.7% 2008-09* 5.58 10.76 522.3 246.7 30.4% Average 2000-01 - 04-05 1.66 8.71 191.1 148.0 -24.4% Average 2005/06 - 07-08 3.34 9.17 359.6 263.3 -7.2% * October 2008 – April 2009. Source: EGTE data; Dorosh and Ahmed (2009).
  • 16. Real Wheat Prices and Import Parity 1998-99 to 2008-09* Real Real Real Real Real Import Price Import Price Exchange Import Price Import Parity Wholesale CIF Djibouti CIF Djibouti Rate CIF Djibouti Price Price ($/ton) ($2004/ton) (Jly 2004=100) (Birr 2004/qntl) (Birr 2004/qntl) (Birr 2004/qntl) 1998-99 161.8 186.2 94.3 149.1 204.4 228.9 1999-00 155.9 180.7 95.2 146.7 203.2 233.4 2000-01 173.5 209.1 95.8 181.9 244.8 182.8 2001-02 179.7 215.2 99.4 196.8 262.7 161.1 2002-03 197.7 220.4 94.7 185.2 241.2 211.5 2003-04 204.6 208.8 99.8 183.6 238.8 175.3 2004-05 195.2 190.9 96.4 161.0 216.3 172.0 2005-06 222.5 209.6 90.4 163.2 218.6 199.8 2006-07 262.4 232.4 84.2 167.0 222.1 199.9 2007-08 401.5 307.2 77.2 204.6 258.4 239.6 2008-09* 276.7 227.5 56.8 128.7 186.4 242.3 Ave 00-01 to 04-05 190.1 208.9 97.2 181.7 240.7 180.6 Ave 05/06 to 07-08 295.4 249.7 83.9 178.3 233.0 213.1 03/04-08/09 %change 55.4% 19.5% -13.7% -1.9% -3.2% 18.0% * October 2008 – April 2009. Source: EGTE data; Dorosh and Ahmed (2009).
  • 17. Summary: Wheat Markets • Wheat price formation regimes have changed several times between 2000 and 2009: – For most of this period, domestic prices have NOT been determined by international border prices • Given foreign exchange rationing starting in March 2008, private sector wheat importers have had restricted access to foreign exchange – Domestic wheat prices have been above wheat import parity prices since May 2008 • Government sales of its wheat imports from July to October 2008 successfully reduced domestic market prices – Sizeable rents accrued to those with access to wheat imports at official prices
  • 18. Ethiopia: Calorie Consumption 2004/05 Other Enset/ Root Pulses/ Animal Teff Wheat Cereals Crops Oilseeds Products Other Total National 248 266 832 234 214 76 215 2,086 Urban 588 181 495 64 285 85 240 1,937 Rural 192 280 887 262 203 75 211 2,110 Expenditure Quintiles Q1 173 215 708 174 148 61 192 1,672 Q2 224 259 812 208 192 67 202 1,964 Q3 225 275 910 256 213 81 205 2,163 Q4 273 304 907 252 247 74 220 2,277 Q5 349 280 828 282 273 98 258 2,367 Source: Calculated from Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA) Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HICES) 2004/05 data; Seyoum et al. (2009).
  • 19. Ethiopia: Calorie Consumption 2004/05 Urban Teff Wheat Other Cereals Enset/ Root Crops Pulses/ Oilseeds Animal Products Other Source: Calculated from Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA) Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HICES) 2004/05 data; Seyoum et al. (2009).
  • 20. Livelihoods Analysis • Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU) – Part of Government of Ethiopia’s early warning system within the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development – Baseline data on 173 livelihood zones using key informant questionnaires – Includes calculations of impacts of shocks on household access to food based on changes in prices or losses of production – Able to highlight sub-regional food security issues that may not be captured in regional analyses (e.g. effects of production losses of non-cereal food crops such as enset and sweet potatoes) See http://www.feg-consulting.com/spotlight/feg_liu_pp8opt.pdf
  • 21. Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) • PSNP introduced 2005 – Initially covered 264 chronically food insecure woredas in four regions (out of approximately 500 woredas in Ethiopia) – Pastoralist areas initially excluded – Two sub-programs • Public works (PW) schemes: pays workers in cash or in-kind for their labor on labor-intensive projects designed to build community assets • Direct support (DS): provided to labor-scarce households including those whose primary income earners are elderly or disabled • Other Food Security Programme (OFSP) – Provides at least one of several productivity-enhancing transfers or services, such as access to credit and agricultural extension services – Designed to encourage households to increase income generated from agricultural activities and to build up assets. – Covered one-third of PSNP recipients in 2006 baseline survey
  • 22. Impact of the PSNP • An evaluation of the PSNP in 2006 showed impacts varied by household participation • Households that received at least half of the amount of transfers it should have received according to the design of the program: – Had a reduced likelihood of having a very low caloric intake – Increased their mean calorie availability by 183 kcals/person/day • Households that also received access to any component of the OFSP are more likely to – Be food secure (increase mean calorie availability by 230 kcals/person/day from 2347 to 2577) – Borrow for productive purposes – Use improved agricultural technologies – Operate nonfarm own business activities Source: Gilligan, Hoddinott and Tafesse (2008).
  • 23. Concluding Observations • Over the last two decades, Ethiopia has made impressive strides in enhancing food security by – Increasing domestic production – Investing in infrastructure to improve markets and – launching the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) • Recent price shocks in Ethiopia are not, in general, due to increases in food prices in international markets • Many households remain vulnerable to food production shocks due to droughts or disease that may be specific to small regions within the country • Food security could be further enhanced through – Continued high growth in agricultural production and incomes of poor households – Expansion of the Other Food Security Program (OFSP) and – Targeted nutrition efforts