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PLG Consulting




         Prepared for
 Shale Energy Supply and
Downstream Opportunities for
  Businesses in NE Ohio
         Youngstown, OH
         November 7, 2012
                               1
Content

I.    About PLG Consulting
II.   Recent Energy Booms
III. Shale Energy 101
IV. Economic Opportunities for OH & PA
V.    Resulting Business Opportunities




                                               2
I. About PLG Consulting
» Boutique consulting firm specializing in logistics, engineering, and supply chain
    Established in 2001
    Over 80 clients and 200 engagements
    Significant shale development practice since 2010


» Headquarters in Chicago USA, with team members throughout the US and with
  “on the ground” experience in:
    North America / Europe / South America / Asia / Middle East


» Consulting services
      Strategy & optimization
      Assessments & benchmarking
      Transportation assets & infrastructure development
      Logistics and Supply Chain operations
      M&A/investments/private equity


» Specializing in these industry categories:
      Energy
      Bulk commodities (Proppants, Chemicals, Plastics)
      Manufactured goods
      Private Equity

                                                                                      3
II. Energy Booms
» Other recent energy “boom” events with major logistics challenges….




» Common characteristics
     New technology breakthroughs and/or dramatic market shifts
     Speed to market is paramount; logistics strategy an afterthought
     Rush of capital and new players
     Continuous change and evolution

         Logistics cost and supply chain execution are even more critical
                              in shale development
                                                                             4
Logistics Cost as a Percentage
                                                of Product Cost
» Frac sand is highly sensitive to logistics costs relative to past energy “booms”
» As frac sand costs are decreasing, rail freight rates are increasing

                                   Total Landed Cost Breakdown of Frac Sand


               Ethanol 8%




                  Wind
               turbine 12%




               Frac sand 58%                            ($180/ton)



                                                                     Source: PLG analysis   5
Best Frac sand comes from WI & MN

                                                                 » “All sand is not created equal”
                                                                 » WI & MN sand is:
                                                                     »   Round
                                                                     »   Uniform in size
                                                                     »   Almost pure quartz
                                                                     »   Extremely hard
                                                                     »   Serves as an optimum proppant
                                                                 » What is a proppant? It props
                                                                   open the fissures in the shale




Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, July 2012                                               6
III. Shale Energy 101




                    7
North American “Shale Plays”



                                             Marcellus & Utica
                                             are large plays with
Bakken & Eagle Ford
                                             great location and
are largest “shale plays”
                                             tremendous potential
so far…What can we
learn from them?




                                                                    8
Shale Economic Impact to ND

North Dakota Oil Production

                                                                            ND




                                                                     WV

                                          OH             PA




                                    • Per capita income rose from 38th to
                                      17th among all states since 2000

                                    • Oil investments driving significant
                                      improvements in state and local
                                      infrastructure development

                                                                                 9
Two Technology Breakthroughs:
                              Horizontal Drilling & Hydraulic Fracturing




Great YouTube video by
Marathon on fracing:
Http://www.youtube.com/watc
h?v=VY34PQUiwOQ




                                                                      10
Shale Energy Supply Chain


Materials                                                             Fuel
                   Upstream      Midstream        Downstream
• Proppants                                                    Gasoline   Distillates
• Chemicals        Exploration
• Clean water                                       Crude
                                 Transportation                Jet Fuel   Residuals
                                                     Oil
                   Production
                   (Well Site)
                                 Processing
Equipment

• Drilling Rigs
• OCTG (Pipe)                                      Refining        Chemical
                    Crude/         Gathering
• Cement                                                          Feedstocks
                     Gas
                    Mixture
  Process
                                                     Natural
  Product
                                                      Gas
  Logistics Flow


                                                                                   11
Hydraulic Fracturing
                                                             Equipment Staging Area


                          Frac Tanks/Fluid Storage


                                                                               Data Van




                        Chemical Trucks



                                 Blender


                                                                       Pump Trucks


                                              Sand Storage
                                                  Unit




Source: JPTOnline.org                                                                     12
Hydraulic Fracturing Materials
                         Inputs and Logistics – Per Well

                 Source to      Transloading to
Materials                                          Waste Water
               Transloading      Wellhead Site
                                                    ~500 Total
 Proppants          40                160           Truckloads



OCTG (Pipe)         5                 20



 Chemicals          2                  8


Clean Water/                                      Oil / Gas/ NGLs
               Local source         ~1,000
  Cement
                                                    Truck, Rail,
                47 Total         ~1,200 Total
                                                      Pipeline
                Railcars         Truckloads

                                                                    13
Midstream / Downstream
                                                      Supply Chain

                                 Petrochemical
 Refined                          Processing                                  Polymers
  Crude
 Products                                  Olefins
                                                                  Polybutadiene    Polypropylene   Polyethylene
                   Chemical
                                Ethylene   Propylene   Butylene
                  Feedstocks



                                 Petrochemicals
Natural                                                                   Manufacturing
 Gas                 Power      Aromatics Ammonia
                                                       Many
                                                       Others           Intermediates become
                                                                            consumer and
                   Generation                                             industrial products



                   Industrial
                      Use

 Process
                   Consumer
 Product             Use
                                                                                  Consumers
 Logistics Flow
                                                                                                                  14
Key Logistical Questions for
                                Midstream and Downstream

» Where are the destinations
  for further processing?
   Midstream processing
   Crude oil refineries
   Petrochemical processing plants



» Is the infrastructure in place
  to allow efficient movements?
     Pipeline locations and capacity
     Adequate roads
     Rail infrastructure
     Waterway terminal availability


                                                           15
IV. Economic Opportunities
              for OH & PA




                         16
Traditional Plastics Supply Chain

                    “I just want to say one word Lordstown
                    to you…Plastics…There’s a Assembly Plant
                    great future in it. Think
                    about it.”
                    -The Graduate, 1967
Resin                                                Component
Plants                                              Manufacturing


          Cracker
                                           Resins
                                           ship
     Refineries                            via rail




                                               Imported crude
                                               via vessel
                                                                    17
Potential Plastics Supply Chain


                Lordstown                      HDPE Calculated Cost
                Assembly                     2500
                  Plant
                                             2000

 Component
                                             1500
Manufacturing




                                     $/Ton
                Resin Cracker
                Plants                       1000


                                              500
           Gas Wells
                                                0
                                                     Asia        US      Saudi             US
                                                              Historical                  Recent

                                      Sources: CMAI, TopLine Analytics, and Alembic analysis, 2012



» Low cost natural gas with local processing would give this
  region a tremendous material and manufacturing cost
  advantage                                                                                          18
Gas Demand Growth Potential
                                            Opportunities – LNG & Others
» LNG export is a cost leverage play
             15                  $7.50-         $13
             12           $4-7   $10.50   $10
      US $




              9
              6   $3.50
              3
              0




» Infrastructure & Regulatory Issues
     Requires fractionation and liquefaction to transport efficiently.
     There are 4 LNG import terminals in the Northeast that could be modified for export
     Marcus Hook, PA has great export potential
     Federal government must approve exporting LNG. Several companies have applied for
      export permits.
» Emerging technology & applications
   Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as transportation fuel
   Converting natural gas to diesel or gasoline (Cairns City, PA)
   Exporting byproducts – propane, ethelyne, resins
                                                                                            19
Impact of Crude Oil in Utica


Utica crude would first
displace foreign crude in
this region and have
logistical cost advantage
vs. Bakken.




Utica has the potential to
produce 100 to 180 million
barrels of oil annually.
     Source: EAI, Inc.




                                         Source: EIA   20
V. Resulting Business
        Opportunities




                    21
Shale Development Activities

» Exploration and Preparation                   » Production
     Land acquisition                             Transportation
     Engineering – Civil, Mechanical              Equipment Maintenance
     Legal
     Construction
     Infrastructure build-out – roads, rail,
      roads, pipelines, bridges, buildings
» Drilling
   Transportation – transloading,
    trucking
   Fresh water management
   Brine water processing &
    transportation
   Equipment maintenance


                                                                            22
Shale Regional Development
                                Business Opportunities

»   Engineering                    »   Medical support
»   Construction                   »   Vehicle rental & repair
»   Material supply & handling     »   Equipment rental & repair
»   Real Estate                    »   Machine parts
»   Temporary Housing              »   Temporary labor
»   Hotels                         »   Work clothing, shoes, PPE
»   Restaurants & Supermarkets     »   Construction material salvage
»   Catering/On-site food supply   »   Fuel – gas, diesel, propane



    Direct Employment: ~20% of all jobs created
    Indirect & Induced Employment: ~80% of jobs created

                                                                       23
Will this boom actually occur?

» Not a matter of “if” but “when”….
     Natural Gas & Crude is here
     Proven technology to find it
     Geographically advantageous
     Great transportation infrastructure in place


» “When” depends on these factors….
     US Natural Gas Prices
     Gas processing & pipeline capacity
     Cracker & resin factories in region
     LNG export timing & amount
     Finding fracing “recipe” for Utica crude oil
     Global crude oil price

                                                            24
Thank You!
   For follow up questions and information, please contact:



       Taylor Robinson, President
+1-508-982-1319 / trobinson@prologisticsgroup.com



                 This presentation will be available at:
              WWW.ProLogisticsGroup.COM




                                                              25

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PLG Shale Energy OH/PA Presentation

  • 1. PLG Consulting Prepared for Shale Energy Supply and Downstream Opportunities for Businesses in NE Ohio Youngstown, OH November 7, 2012 1
  • 2. Content I. About PLG Consulting II. Recent Energy Booms III. Shale Energy 101 IV. Economic Opportunities for OH & PA V. Resulting Business Opportunities 2
  • 3. I. About PLG Consulting » Boutique consulting firm specializing in logistics, engineering, and supply chain  Established in 2001  Over 80 clients and 200 engagements  Significant shale development practice since 2010 » Headquarters in Chicago USA, with team members throughout the US and with “on the ground” experience in:  North America / Europe / South America / Asia / Middle East » Consulting services  Strategy & optimization  Assessments & benchmarking  Transportation assets & infrastructure development  Logistics and Supply Chain operations  M&A/investments/private equity » Specializing in these industry categories:  Energy  Bulk commodities (Proppants, Chemicals, Plastics)  Manufactured goods  Private Equity 3
  • 4. II. Energy Booms » Other recent energy “boom” events with major logistics challenges…. » Common characteristics  New technology breakthroughs and/or dramatic market shifts  Speed to market is paramount; logistics strategy an afterthought  Rush of capital and new players  Continuous change and evolution Logistics cost and supply chain execution are even more critical in shale development 4
  • 5. Logistics Cost as a Percentage of Product Cost » Frac sand is highly sensitive to logistics costs relative to past energy “booms” » As frac sand costs are decreasing, rail freight rates are increasing Total Landed Cost Breakdown of Frac Sand Ethanol 8% Wind turbine 12% Frac sand 58% ($180/ton) Source: PLG analysis 5
  • 6. Best Frac sand comes from WI & MN » “All sand is not created equal” » WI & MN sand is: » Round » Uniform in size » Almost pure quartz » Extremely hard » Serves as an optimum proppant » What is a proppant? It props open the fissures in the shale Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, July 2012 6
  • 8. North American “Shale Plays” Marcellus & Utica are large plays with Bakken & Eagle Ford great location and are largest “shale plays” tremendous potential so far…What can we learn from them? 8
  • 9. Shale Economic Impact to ND North Dakota Oil Production ND WV OH PA • Per capita income rose from 38th to 17th among all states since 2000 • Oil investments driving significant improvements in state and local infrastructure development 9
  • 10. Two Technology Breakthroughs: Horizontal Drilling & Hydraulic Fracturing Great YouTube video by Marathon on fracing: Http://www.youtube.com/watc h?v=VY34PQUiwOQ 10
  • 11. Shale Energy Supply Chain Materials Fuel Upstream Midstream Downstream • Proppants Gasoline Distillates • Chemicals Exploration • Clean water Crude Transportation Jet Fuel Residuals Oil Production (Well Site) Processing Equipment • Drilling Rigs • OCTG (Pipe) Refining Chemical Crude/ Gathering • Cement Feedstocks Gas Mixture Process Natural Product Gas Logistics Flow 11
  • 12. Hydraulic Fracturing Equipment Staging Area Frac Tanks/Fluid Storage Data Van Chemical Trucks Blender Pump Trucks Sand Storage Unit Source: JPTOnline.org 12
  • 13. Hydraulic Fracturing Materials Inputs and Logistics – Per Well Source to Transloading to Materials Waste Water Transloading Wellhead Site ~500 Total Proppants 40 160 Truckloads OCTG (Pipe) 5 20 Chemicals 2 8 Clean Water/ Oil / Gas/ NGLs Local source ~1,000 Cement Truck, Rail, 47 Total ~1,200 Total Pipeline Railcars Truckloads 13
  • 14. Midstream / Downstream Supply Chain Petrochemical Refined Processing Polymers Crude Products Olefins Polybutadiene Polypropylene Polyethylene Chemical Ethylene Propylene Butylene Feedstocks Petrochemicals Natural Manufacturing Gas Power Aromatics Ammonia Many Others Intermediates become consumer and Generation industrial products Industrial Use Process Consumer Product Use Consumers Logistics Flow 14
  • 15. Key Logistical Questions for Midstream and Downstream » Where are the destinations for further processing?  Midstream processing  Crude oil refineries  Petrochemical processing plants » Is the infrastructure in place to allow efficient movements?  Pipeline locations and capacity  Adequate roads  Rail infrastructure  Waterway terminal availability 15
  • 16. IV. Economic Opportunities for OH & PA 16
  • 17. Traditional Plastics Supply Chain “I just want to say one word Lordstown to you…Plastics…There’s a Assembly Plant great future in it. Think about it.” -The Graduate, 1967 Resin Component Plants Manufacturing Cracker Resins ship Refineries via rail Imported crude via vessel 17
  • 18. Potential Plastics Supply Chain Lordstown HDPE Calculated Cost Assembly 2500 Plant 2000 Component 1500 Manufacturing $/Ton Resin Cracker Plants 1000 500 Gas Wells 0 Asia US Saudi US Historical Recent Sources: CMAI, TopLine Analytics, and Alembic analysis, 2012 » Low cost natural gas with local processing would give this region a tremendous material and manufacturing cost advantage 18
  • 19. Gas Demand Growth Potential Opportunities – LNG & Others » LNG export is a cost leverage play 15 $7.50- $13 12 $4-7 $10.50 $10 US $ 9 6 $3.50 3 0 » Infrastructure & Regulatory Issues  Requires fractionation and liquefaction to transport efficiently.  There are 4 LNG import terminals in the Northeast that could be modified for export  Marcus Hook, PA has great export potential  Federal government must approve exporting LNG. Several companies have applied for export permits. » Emerging technology & applications  Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as transportation fuel  Converting natural gas to diesel or gasoline (Cairns City, PA)  Exporting byproducts – propane, ethelyne, resins 19
  • 20. Impact of Crude Oil in Utica Utica crude would first displace foreign crude in this region and have logistical cost advantage vs. Bakken. Utica has the potential to produce 100 to 180 million barrels of oil annually. Source: EAI, Inc. Source: EIA 20
  • 21. V. Resulting Business Opportunities 21
  • 22. Shale Development Activities » Exploration and Preparation » Production  Land acquisition  Transportation  Engineering – Civil, Mechanical  Equipment Maintenance  Legal  Construction  Infrastructure build-out – roads, rail, roads, pipelines, bridges, buildings » Drilling  Transportation – transloading, trucking  Fresh water management  Brine water processing & transportation  Equipment maintenance 22
  • 23. Shale Regional Development Business Opportunities » Engineering » Medical support » Construction » Vehicle rental & repair » Material supply & handling » Equipment rental & repair » Real Estate » Machine parts » Temporary Housing » Temporary labor » Hotels » Work clothing, shoes, PPE » Restaurants & Supermarkets » Construction material salvage » Catering/On-site food supply » Fuel – gas, diesel, propane Direct Employment: ~20% of all jobs created Indirect & Induced Employment: ~80% of jobs created 23
  • 24. Will this boom actually occur? » Not a matter of “if” but “when”….  Natural Gas & Crude is here  Proven technology to find it  Geographically advantageous  Great transportation infrastructure in place » “When” depends on these factors….  US Natural Gas Prices  Gas processing & pipeline capacity  Cracker & resin factories in region  LNG export timing & amount  Finding fracing “recipe” for Utica crude oil  Global crude oil price 24
  • 25. Thank You! For follow up questions and information, please contact: Taylor Robinson, President +1-508-982-1319 / trobinson@prologisticsgroup.com This presentation will be available at: WWW.ProLogisticsGroup.COM 25