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•     Click to edit Master text styles
         •     Second level the Outsourced Supply Chain
                 Globalise
         •     Third level
                        Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond

         •     Fourth level
                                    Jeremy Davidson
         •     Fifth level
                                           25th November 2010




Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                           Slide No. 1
Key Themes

          Black Sea region is recovering from recession

         •     Click to editgrowth in demand critical
                 o Consumer-led Master text styles

         •
              Second level
               Black Sea has considerable potential as a key Gateway for C & E Europe as

         •     Third level
               well as Central Asia


         •     Fourth level
                 o Shipping FE Imports via N Europe no longer makes sense; direct

                   shipment a viable and better alternative
         •     Fifth level
          W Europe retailers already dominant and changing logistics practices

          Controlling logistics cost as important as in W Europe




Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                              Slide No. 2
Black Sea Region Overview


                                                       GDP per capita
         •     Click to edit Master text styles                         Pop (m) Per Capital GDP

         •     Second level           Russia
                                                                         2009
                                                                          142
                                                                                     in 2009
                                                                                    $15,176
                                      Turkey                              75        $13,952
         •     Third level            Ukraine
                                      Romania
                                                                          46
                                                                          22
                                                                                      $6,873
                                                                                    $12,214

         •
                                      Bulgaria                             8        $12,296
               Fourth level
                                      Average EU-27                                 $30,651

         •     Fifth level            Average OECD                                  $33,732




                 Per capital GDP & Consumption half of EU-27 average
                 Growth potential in consumption greater than EU
                 Large populations looking to improve standard of living
                 Increase in demand for FMCG & Consumer Durables

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                      Slide No. 3
Recovery from Recession
    GDP Change in Black Sea Economies
              2008 - 2011
     10.0%



      5.0%
          •    Click to edit Master text Effect of 2008-09 Recession
                                          styles
                                         Major Economies
      0.0%
          •    Second level
              Russia     Turkey      Ukraine   Romania   Bulgaria   2008
                                                                    2009
      -5.0%                              % change       GDP  Exports Imports
          •
                                                                    2010F


     -10.0%
               Third level               Canada
                                         France
                                                        -3.1
                                                        -3.2
                                                              -19.2
                                                              -15.0
                                                                      -19.0
                                                                    2011F


                                                                      -12.5

          •
     -15.0%
               Fourth level              Germany
                                         Italy
                                                        -6.3
                                                        -6.5
                                                              -18.2
                                                              -23.9
                                                                      -12.9
                                                                      -19.0
     -20.0%                              Japan          -8.0  -32.1   -20.5

          •    Fifth level               United Kingdom
                                         United States
                                                        -5.9
                                                        -3.5
                                                              -13.3
                                                              -12.6
                                                                      -16.7
                                                                      -19.5
         Decline in region similar to that
                                                                            Euro area            -5.1   -17.8   -15.3
          seen in leading economies                                         OECD total           -4.7   -15.7   -17.4
         RU & TU expected to recover                                       Russian Federation   -9.7   -12.9   -35.1
          strongly
         RO & BG slower recovery forecast
         Projected growth rates expected to
          be higher than in W Europe
Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                                            Slide No. 4
Investment in BS Region



         •     Click to edit Master text styles
         •     Second level
         •     Third level
         •     Fourth level
         •     Fifth level
                                                        Sharp decline in GDP
                                                        Fall off in foreign direct investment
                                                        Reduction in relative County Risk
                                                         Scores vs EU-15
                                                        Fundamentals still sound


Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                   Slide No. 5
Retail Logistics: Key Sector

          Retail logistics spend >50% of total market in W Europe; probably even
                higher in BS Region
         •
         
               Click to increasing imports from China & SE Asia
               BS countries
                             edit Master text styles
         •     Second levellabel & cheaper brands
                 o Growth of own

         •
              Most leading retailers are W European and often supply the BS Region
               ThirdNlevel ports and ship down (road/rail)
               through European

         •     Fourth level
                 o Critical mass/economic quantities

         •
         
               Fifth level costsrepresent up to 50% of value of goods. Hence
               Often freight costs can
               reducing logistics       critical

                   o More centralisation

                   o Direct shipment from countries of origin

                   o For cheap footwear at €15/pai5, logistics can represent 15%

          On-carriage from ports to RDC’s still problematic; poor road infrastructure

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                              Slide No. 6
The Black Sea as a Gateway

                                                                 Black Sea (BS) strategically placed as
                                                                   Gateway to both West & East
         •     Click to edit Master text styles
                                    Imports from Far East can be landed in BS
         •     Second level           Ports and shipped inland

         •     Third level          Infrastructure improving with rail an
                                      increasing option
         •     Fourth level
                                    Turkey a critical gateway to Iran, Iraq and
         •     Fifth level            Central Asia
               CONTAINER SHIPMENTS IN BLACK SEA - 2009

                            BULGARIA
                                                                 Russia to develop BS ports as alternative
                    GEORGIA
                                           UKRAINE                 to Baltics

                     RUSSIA                                      Istanbul terminals effective for

                                   ROMANIA                         transshipment

             1.9 M TEU forecast for 2010 vs 1.5 M TEU in 2009

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                                   Slide No. 7
Leading Retailers in Region

                        Romania                 Ukraine      Turkey          Bulgaria
           1               Metro                 Fozzy       Migros          Kaufland
         •2     Click to edit Master text styles
                   Carrefour    Metro         Bim                              Rewe

         •3     Second level Fursnet
                    Selgros                 Carrefour                          CBA
          4        Kaufland      ASB         Metro                           Picadilly
         •5     Third level Kishenya
                     Billa                   Tesco                            Familia
          6          Rewe      Auchan         BTT                            Carrefour
         •7     Fourth level Anastor
                     Plus                   Teknosa                            Metro
         •8          Mega
                Fifth level    Tayriya        Kiler                          Fantastico
           9             Auchan                   Eko       Tespo c/c          Billa
           10          Dederman                  Rewe         Carsi           Europa

               Region targetted by retail multiples from W Europe
               Displacing traditional retailers and stimulating demand
               Transferring retailing practices and approach to logistics
               W European 3PL’s have followed – not always successfully
Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                  Slide No. 8
Black Sea Retailers & FE Imports



         •     Click to edit Master text styles
         •     Second level
         •     Third level
         •     Fourth level
         •     Fifth level

          Regional retail multiples source from the same FE vendors as
           in W Europe
          Purchasing often remains centralised at Retailers’ HQ’s
          Opportunities for local solutions esp logistics

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                  Slide No. 9
Centralisation & Outsourcing

                                                              Centralisation of Logistics by leading retail
                                                                multiples vary, on average 20%
      • Click to edit Master text styles mass’, supplier
                                  Problems with ‘critical

      • Second level               compliance, vehicle utilisation etc
                                  Centralisation depends on efficient inbound
      • Third level                collection & consolidation

      • Fourth level
     Outsourced Logistics in CEE

      • Fifth level
     Country
                                    Direct store deliveries common
                                      Outsourced
                                   2008        2012
     Poland                        23%         35%              Local produce and products still
     Hungary                       22%         30%
     Czech Republic                23%         35%                 important
     Slovakia                      13%         25%
     Romania                       28%         35%              Shortage of suitable 3PL’s
     Bulgaria                      18%          30%
     CEE Total                     21%          32%             Level of outsourcing set to increase & 3PL

     W. Europe                    50% +      little change
                                                                   market will grow
     Source: Analytica & NYK

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                                   Slide No. 10
Direct Shipment to Romania
                                                                                          Nautical
                                                                                           Miles
                                                          Shanghai to Rotterdam             10,409
                                                          Shanghai to Constanta, RO           7,980
         •     Click to edit Master text styles Kg CO /ton
                                                                                      2

         •     Second level
                   Rotterdam           Sea
                                                 via Rotterdam via Constanta
                                                      327.7        251.2

         •     Third level   Road/rail
                                       Road
                                       Rail
                                                       167
                                                        0
                                                                    0.3
                                                                    6.1
                                       Total          494.7        257.6
         •     Fourth level Constanta
                                        Reduction via Constanta     48%
         •     Fifth level


         • A retailer importing 2,000 containers/year through Constanta
           can save €1.8 million & reduce CO2 footprint by 7,000 t

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                              Slide No. 11
© via donau 2006



                                           Using the Danube



          •        Click to edit Master text styles
          •        Second level
          •        Third level
          •        Fourth level
          •        Fifth level
    Rail from Hamburg to Krems in Austria
    Shipped by barge to Central Europe and
           Black Sea regions
    Can be used in reverse for imports via Constanta
    Significant cost & CO2 savings

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                      Slide No. 12
Supply Chain Efficiencies
  END-TO-END LOGISTICS COSTS
  Delivered to store                                 Cost per cbm

     • Click to edit€ Master text styles
  ex-China
  Sea Freight         78   € 51   € 81
                                            Qtr 1 08      Qtr 2 09   Qtr 2 10
                                                                                       DELIVERY TO STORE
                                                                                           & RETURNS
                                                                                              33%
                    € 37   € 36   € 37
                                                                                                            OCEAN FREIGHT
  Warehousing                                                                                               & ON-CARRIAGE


     • Second level168 €€142 €€176
                    € 54     55     58
  Delivery to store                                                                                              46%

  Total            €


     • Third level € 1.40
  Cost per pair of shoes  € 1.18 € 1.47                                                       WAREHOUSING
                                                                                                  21%




     • Fourth level
  What if….                                Savings
                                           Cost/pair
                   € 0.03
  Increase stock-turns by 30%
                                  Average selling price of a pair of
     • Fifth level € 0.06
                   € 0.15
  Increase drop size by 50%
  Increase container loading by 20%
                                     shoes lower in BS Region but
  Shipped direct from FE                    € 0.16
  Did all this …                            € 0.40
                                                                         logistics cost the same
  Savings of                                 27%                      Even more critical to make supply
                                                                         chain more efficient
                                                                      Shipping direct from FE easy to do
                                                                         and implement

Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                                                    Slide No. 13
Streamline the Supply Chain

            V                                                       Retail RDC     R
                                           Origin CFS

       • Click to edit Master text styles
            E
            N
                                                                                   E
                                                                                   T
            D                                                                      A
       • Second level
            O
            R                                                         Mfr DC
                                                                                   I
                                                                                   L
            S
       • Third level                   Origin RDC
                                                                       DC Bypass




     
       •Challenges faced by retailers in BS region no different to those in W Europe.
         Fourth level
      •Opportunities to streamline & save money by:
         Fifth level
                 o Shipping direct to RDC in region (€20-30/cbm)
                 o Performing more operations in origin countries (eg Origin DC’s)
                          W Europe wages for warehouse worker € 25,000 pa vs €6,000 in RO
                             and € 3,000 pa in China
                 o Consolidating across product ranges & co-loading with competitors:
                      better container fill & lower cost per cbm.
Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                                Slide No. 14
Shipping can be risky !



         •     Click to edit Master text styles
         •     Second level
         •     Third level
         •     Fourth level
         •     Fifth level




Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                             Slide No. 15
Piracy still a major threat
     Reported incidents each month during past 12 months



         •     Click to edit Master text styles
         •     Second level
         •     Third level
         •     Fourth level
         •     Fifth level




Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond                                 Slide No. 16
THE WORLD IS FOUR-
         •     Click to edit Master text styles
         •
                        FIFTHS WATER
               Second level
         • Third level
           THE REST IS THERE FOR
         • Fourth level
         • Fifth level
             MOORING PURPOSES !


Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond          Slide No. 17

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Jeremy Davidson from NYK Logistics; ‘Globalise the Outsourced Supply Chain: Seize New Market Opportunities in Eastern Europe, the BRIC Countries and Beyond’

  • 1. Click to edit Master text styles • Second level the Outsourced Supply Chain Globalise • Third level Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond • Fourth level Jeremy Davidson • Fifth level 25th November 2010 Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 1
  • 2. Key Themes  Black Sea region is recovering from recession • Click to editgrowth in demand critical o Consumer-led Master text styles •  Second level Black Sea has considerable potential as a key Gateway for C & E Europe as • Third level well as Central Asia • Fourth level o Shipping FE Imports via N Europe no longer makes sense; direct shipment a viable and better alternative • Fifth level  W Europe retailers already dominant and changing logistics practices  Controlling logistics cost as important as in W Europe Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 2
  • 3. Black Sea Region Overview GDP per capita • Click to edit Master text styles Pop (m) Per Capital GDP • Second level Russia 2009 142 in 2009 $15,176 Turkey 75 $13,952 • Third level Ukraine Romania 46 22 $6,873 $12,214 • Bulgaria 8 $12,296 Fourth level Average EU-27 $30,651 • Fifth level Average OECD $33,732  Per capital GDP & Consumption half of EU-27 average  Growth potential in consumption greater than EU  Large populations looking to improve standard of living  Increase in demand for FMCG & Consumer Durables Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 3
  • 4. Recovery from Recession GDP Change in Black Sea Economies 2008 - 2011 10.0% 5.0% • Click to edit Master text Effect of 2008-09 Recession styles Major Economies 0.0% • Second level Russia Turkey Ukraine Romania Bulgaria 2008 2009 -5.0% % change GDP Exports Imports • 2010F -10.0% Third level Canada France -3.1 -3.2 -19.2 -15.0 -19.0 2011F -12.5 • -15.0% Fourth level Germany Italy -6.3 -6.5 -18.2 -23.9 -12.9 -19.0 -20.0% Japan -8.0 -32.1 -20.5 • Fifth level United Kingdom United States -5.9 -3.5 -13.3 -12.6 -16.7 -19.5  Decline in region similar to that Euro area -5.1 -17.8 -15.3 seen in leading economies OECD total -4.7 -15.7 -17.4  RU & TU expected to recover Russian Federation -9.7 -12.9 -35.1 strongly  RO & BG slower recovery forecast  Projected growth rates expected to be higher than in W Europe Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 4
  • 5. Investment in BS Region • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level  Sharp decline in GDP  Fall off in foreign direct investment  Reduction in relative County Risk Scores vs EU-15  Fundamentals still sound Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 5
  • 6. Retail Logistics: Key Sector  Retail logistics spend >50% of total market in W Europe; probably even higher in BS Region •  Click to increasing imports from China & SE Asia BS countries edit Master text styles • Second levellabel & cheaper brands o Growth of own •  Most leading retailers are W European and often supply the BS Region ThirdNlevel ports and ship down (road/rail) through European • Fourth level o Critical mass/economic quantities •  Fifth level costsrepresent up to 50% of value of goods. Hence Often freight costs can reducing logistics critical o More centralisation o Direct shipment from countries of origin o For cheap footwear at €15/pai5, logistics can represent 15%  On-carriage from ports to RDC’s still problematic; poor road infrastructure Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 6
  • 7. The Black Sea as a Gateway  Black Sea (BS) strategically placed as Gateway to both West & East • Click to edit Master text styles  Imports from Far East can be landed in BS • Second level Ports and shipped inland • Third level  Infrastructure improving with rail an increasing option • Fourth level  Turkey a critical gateway to Iran, Iraq and • Fifth level Central Asia CONTAINER SHIPMENTS IN BLACK SEA - 2009 BULGARIA  Russia to develop BS ports as alternative GEORGIA UKRAINE to Baltics RUSSIA  Istanbul terminals effective for ROMANIA transshipment 1.9 M TEU forecast for 2010 vs 1.5 M TEU in 2009 Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 7
  • 8. Leading Retailers in Region Romania Ukraine Turkey Bulgaria 1 Metro Fozzy Migros Kaufland •2 Click to edit Master text styles Carrefour Metro Bim Rewe •3 Second level Fursnet Selgros Carrefour CBA 4 Kaufland ASB Metro Picadilly •5 Third level Kishenya Billa Tesco Familia 6 Rewe Auchan BTT Carrefour •7 Fourth level Anastor Plus Teknosa Metro •8 Mega Fifth level Tayriya Kiler Fantastico 9 Auchan Eko Tespo c/c Billa 10 Dederman Rewe Carsi Europa  Region targetted by retail multiples from W Europe  Displacing traditional retailers and stimulating demand  Transferring retailing practices and approach to logistics  W European 3PL’s have followed – not always successfully Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 8
  • 9. Black Sea Retailers & FE Imports • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level  Regional retail multiples source from the same FE vendors as in W Europe  Purchasing often remains centralised at Retailers’ HQ’s  Opportunities for local solutions esp logistics Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 9
  • 10. Centralisation & Outsourcing  Centralisation of Logistics by leading retail multiples vary, on average 20% • Click to edit Master text styles mass’, supplier  Problems with ‘critical • Second level compliance, vehicle utilisation etc  Centralisation depends on efficient inbound • Third level collection & consolidation • Fourth level Outsourced Logistics in CEE • Fifth level Country  Direct store deliveries common Outsourced 2008 2012 Poland 23% 35%  Local produce and products still Hungary 22% 30% Czech Republic 23% 35% important Slovakia 13% 25% Romania 28% 35%  Shortage of suitable 3PL’s Bulgaria 18% 30% CEE Total 21% 32%  Level of outsourcing set to increase & 3PL W. Europe 50% + little change market will grow Source: Analytica & NYK Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 10
  • 11. Direct Shipment to Romania Nautical Miles Shanghai to Rotterdam 10,409 Shanghai to Constanta, RO 7,980 • Click to edit Master text styles Kg CO /ton 2 • Second level Rotterdam Sea via Rotterdam via Constanta 327.7 251.2 • Third level Road/rail Road Rail 167 0 0.3 6.1 Total 494.7 257.6 • Fourth level Constanta Reduction via Constanta 48% • Fifth level • A retailer importing 2,000 containers/year through Constanta can save €1.8 million & reduce CO2 footprint by 7,000 t Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 11
  • 12. © via donau 2006 Using the Danube • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level  Rail from Hamburg to Krems in Austria  Shipped by barge to Central Europe and Black Sea regions  Can be used in reverse for imports via Constanta  Significant cost & CO2 savings Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 12
  • 13. Supply Chain Efficiencies END-TO-END LOGISTICS COSTS Delivered to store Cost per cbm • Click to edit€ Master text styles ex-China Sea Freight 78 € 51 € 81 Qtr 1 08 Qtr 2 09 Qtr 2 10 DELIVERY TO STORE & RETURNS 33% € 37 € 36 € 37 OCEAN FREIGHT Warehousing & ON-CARRIAGE • Second level168 €€142 €€176 € 54 55 58 Delivery to store 46% Total € • Third level € 1.40 Cost per pair of shoes € 1.18 € 1.47 WAREHOUSING 21% • Fourth level What if…. Savings Cost/pair € 0.03 Increase stock-turns by 30%  Average selling price of a pair of • Fifth level € 0.06 € 0.15 Increase drop size by 50% Increase container loading by 20% shoes lower in BS Region but Shipped direct from FE € 0.16 Did all this … € 0.40 logistics cost the same Savings of 27%  Even more critical to make supply chain more efficient  Shipping direct from FE easy to do and implement Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 13
  • 14. Streamline the Supply Chain V Retail RDC R Origin CFS • Click to edit Master text styles E N E T D A • Second level O R Mfr DC I L S • Third level Origin RDC DC Bypass  •Challenges faced by retailers in BS region no different to those in W Europe. Fourth level  •Opportunities to streamline & save money by: Fifth level o Shipping direct to RDC in region (€20-30/cbm) o Performing more operations in origin countries (eg Origin DC’s)  W Europe wages for warehouse worker € 25,000 pa vs €6,000 in RO and € 3,000 pa in China o Consolidating across product ranges & co-loading with competitors: better container fill & lower cost per cbm. Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 14
  • 15. Shipping can be risky ! • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 15
  • 16. Piracy still a major threat Reported incidents each month during past 12 months • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 16
  • 17. THE WORLD IS FOUR- • Click to edit Master text styles • FIFTHS WATER Second level • Third level THE REST IS THERE FOR • Fourth level • Fifth level MOORING PURPOSES ! Opportunities in Eastern Europe & Beyond Slide No. 17