A presentation exploring the technical and economic potential of solar power, its enormous value to the grid, and the opportunities for its expansion. Given to the Missouri Solar Energy Industries Association on Feb. 1, 2014, by the Institute for Local Self-Reliance's Director of Democratic Energy, John Farrell.
Show Me Solar: Clean, Local Power for Missouri's Economy
1. MOSEIA 2014 ANNUAL CONFERENCE
SHOW ME SOLAR: CLEAN, LOCAL
POWER FOR MISSOURI’S ECONOMY
February 1, 2014
John Farrell
Director of Democratic Energy
2. SHOW ME
U.S. Congressman Willard Duncan Vandiver
"I come from a state that raises corn and cotton and
cockleburs and Democrats, and frothy eloquence neither
convinces nor satisfies me. I am from Missouri.
You have got to show me."
3. SHOW ME
A number of miners from the lead districts of southwest
Missouri had been imported to take the places of
Colorado mine strikers. The Joplin miners…required
frequent instructions. Pit bosses began saying,
"That man is from Missouri. You'll have to show him."
5. LOCAL RENEWABLE POTENTIAL
32 states - 100%+
POTENTIAL PERCENT OF
POWER FROM LOCAL
RENEWABLES
http://bit.ly/EnergySelfReliantStates
100% or more
50 to 100%
25 to 50%
10 to 25%
10% or less
6. What percent of Missouri electricity could come from
rooftop solar alone?
9. LOCAL SOLAR POTENTIAL
13,000 MW
$14 billion
150,000 jobs
NREL JEDI model - $3/Watt installed cost – http://cl.ly/013W2A0z2F0V
21%
10. 20¢
S O L A R PA R I T Y
Unsubsidized Solar Parity
15¢
10¢
5¢
ice
lectricity pr
retail e
Subsidized Solar Parity
levelized cost over 25 yrs. – ¢ per kilowatt-hour
0¢
Past
Now
Future
12. R A P I D LY R I S I N G A V E R A G E R E TA I L
ELECTRICITY PRICES IN MISSOURI
12¢
5% per year
9¢
6¢
3¢
0¢
2003
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
2004
2005
¢ per kilowatt-hour
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: EIA
2010
2011
2012
2013
13. S O L A R PA R I T Y C O M E T H
(Missouri)
30¢
Residential Elec.
Commercial Elec.
Industrial Elec.
Solar No Subsidy
Solar w/ ITC
Solar w/ ITC+Rebate
20¢
10¢
¢ per kilowatt-hour
0¢
2010
See http://www.ilsr.org/projects/solarparitymap/ for assumptions
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
14. S O L A R “ PA R I T Y ” H E R E ?
(Missouri)
30¢
Residential Elec.
Commercial Elec.
Industrial Elec.
Solar No Subsidy
Solar w/ ITC
Solar w/ ITC+Rebate
20¢
10¢
¢ per kilowatt-hour
0¢
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
15. S O L A R PA R I T Y C O M E T H
(Missouri)
30¢
Residential Elec.
Commercial Elec.
Industrial Elec.
Solar No Subsidy
Solar w/ ITC
Solar w/ ITC+Rebate
20¢
10¢
¢ per kilowatt-hour
0¢
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
18. L O C A L S O L A R VA L U E
13,000 MW
$14 billion
150,000 jobs
NREL JEDI model - $3/Watt installed cost – http://cl.ly/013W2A0z2F0V
21%
19. PRODUCING ELECTRICITY TO MEET DEMAND
Electricity Deamnd
WITH BASELOAD
Fast peaking (e.g. gas combustion turbine)
Intermediate peaking (e.g. natural gas combined cycle)
Baseload (coal or nuclear)
1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM
Time of day
Adapted from David Mills: http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm
20. PRODUCING ELECTRICITY TO MEET DEMAND
Electricity Deamnd
WITH BASELOAD
Fast peaking (e.g. gas combustion turbine)
Intermediate peaking (e.g. natural gas combined cycle)
Baseload (coal or nuclear)
1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM
Time of day
Adapted from David Mills: http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm
22. 14¢
12.8¢
12¢
(per kWh)
10¢
Loss Savings
T&D Deferral
8¢
Environment
Gen. capacity
6¢
Energy
4¢
2¢
Utilities value DG
Austin Energy
Value of Solar Tariff
0¢
Source: The Value of Distributed Photovoltaics to Austin Energy and the City of Austin
23. $0.14
13.5¢
$0.11
(per kWh)
Local capacity value
Avoided transmission access
$0.08
Environmental (RPS compliance)
Avoided transmission losses
Brown energy replacement
$0.06
$0.03
Utilities value DG
$0.00
Palo Alto
CLEAN Program
24. $0.14
Coming soon…
$0.11
(per kWh)
Local capacity value
Avoided transmission access
$0.08
Environmental (RPS compliance)
Avoided transmission losses
Brown energy replacement
$0.06
$0.03
Utilities value DG
$0.00
Minnesota
Value of Solar
25. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
Not local
0
very negative
25
50
negative
neutral
75
positive
100
very positive
Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy
26. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
Not local
-44%
+77% net approval
Local
Ownership
+33%
0
very negative
25
50
negative
neutral
75
positive
100
very positive
Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy
27. Germany’s Energy Revolution Still People Powered
Other
54%
Individuals & Farmers
46%
29,000 MW
20% renewable
32. E A S I LY A C C O M M O D AT E D
Geographic Dispersion Lowers Solar Backup Costs
$0.04
$0.040
$0.03
$ per kWh
$0.02
$0.010
$0.01
$0.00
$0.001
1 location
5 locations
25 locations
Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power
(Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
42. LOCAL PERMITTING
40%
39%
30%
As the cost of solar falls...
20%
19%
13%
10%
5%
erm
p
22%
ined
aml
15%
stre
s from
12%
saving
...the
6%
8%
Approx. year for residential installation*
0%
$6.00
ise
gr
tin
it
26%
$5.00
2013
2017
$4.00
$3.00
Installed Cost per Watt
Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013)
*From ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports: http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/
2023
$2.00
47. Virtual Net Metering Policies (2013)
http://www.ilsr.org/virtual-net-metering/
State
VNM Eligibility
California
Multi-tenant properties, local governments
Colorado
IOU customers; solar gardens
Connecticut
Municipal customers only
Dist. of Columbia
All customers
Illinois
Utility choice to offer
Maine
All customers
Maryland
Allowed for agricultural customers, non-profit organizations, and
municipal governments or their affiliates
Massachusetts
All customers
Minnesota
Xcel Energy customers only, awaiting rulemaking, 10/16/13
Rhode Island
Local and state governments
Vermont
All customers