ILSR Senior Researcher John Farrell gave this presentation remotely to the Ontario Power Perspectives conference on April 16, 2012. He was supposed to be there in person, but he forgot to renew his passport. The presentation highlights how Ontario’s “buy local” rule, bonuses for community ownership and focus on distributed generation make their feed-in tariff program very worthwhile.

1. It’s Worth It:
Ontario’s Clean Energy Program
John Farrell, Director
Energy Self-Reliant States and Communities program
jfarrell@ilsr.org
April 16, 2012 – Presentation to the Ontario Power Conference

2. Energy Transformation
Yesterday Tomorrow
Centralized power Clean, local power
Solar PV
power plant
Storage Storage
Transmission network
Storage
Storage
House
Local CHP plant
Distribution network House with
domestic CHP
Wind
power
Factory Commercial plant
building

3. Ontario’s “Buy Local” Policy
✤ January 2011
✤ 43,000 jobs
✤ ~5,000 MW (15% local)

4. Worth It? Cost per kWh
Jurisdictions with Feed-in Tariff Programs

5. Worth It? Cost per kWh
States with Renewable Energy Mandates

6. Cost is Competitive
$0.40
$0.37
$0.30 $0.32 $0.31 Normalized for:
•sun
$0.20
•tax incentives
•dollars
$0.10 $0.13 •contract length
$0
Solar Contract Price, USD$ per kWh
Ontario Vermont Gainesville Germany

7. Cost Coming Down
Contract Price for 100 kW Solar PV (Germany)
$0.60
$0.48
$0.36
$0.24
$0.12
$0
Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012

8. Why Ontario Got It Right
✤ “Buy local” domestic content
✤ Community ownership
✤ Distributed generation

9. Domestic Content
60%
50%

10. Domestic Content: Good
22 manufacturing plants
2,000 - 3,000 jobs
$30/hr average

11. Reasonable Job Costs
Cost per Job (thousands)
$143
$92
$635
$0 $175 $350 $525 $700
Ontario U.S. Stimulus Ohio and Michigan

12. Community Ownership
15% thru 2010 10% set-aside

13. Community Ownership: Good
Absentee
Community 1.1x (low)
+2-10%
Community 2.8x (high)
Total Jobs
Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects: A Review and Empirical Evaluation (NREL)

14. Community Ownership: Good
Absentee
Community 1.5x (low)
+2-10%
Community 3.4x (high)
Total Economic Impact
Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects: A Review and Empirical Evaluation (NREL)

15. Ownership = Political Support
No local ownership 60% negative
Local ownership 45% positive
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
very negative negative neutral positive very positive

16. Ownership = Political Support
Renewable energy Fossil fuels
70%
60% 63%
50%
52%
40%
39%
30%
29%
20%
10%
0%
2011 2012

17. Distributed Solar: Cost-Effective
Levelized Cost per kWh After Tax Incentives
$0.15
$0.12
$0.09
$0.06
$0.03
$0
100 kW 500 kW 1 MW 1 MW 5 MW 50 MW
Rooftop Ground
Electricity generation Transmission cost

18. Distributed Wind: Cost-Effective
Installed Cost per kW
$3,000
$2,400
$1,800
$1,200
$600
$0
< 5 MW 5-20 MW 20-50 MW 50-100 MW 100-200 MW > 200 MW

19. Distributed Solar: Fast
Installed Solar Capacity in Germany
30 GW
25 GW
20 GW
15 GW
10 GW
5 GW
0 GW
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

20. Distributed Solar: Fast
Installed Solar Capacity in Germany
30 GW
25 GW
20 GW
rooftops,
15 GW
100 kW or smaller
10 GW
5 GW
80% $2.24 per Watt
0 GW
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

21. It’s Worth It
✤ Domestic
FIT Program
✤ Community
✤ Distributed

22. Thank you!
John Farrell
energyselfreliantstates.org
jfarrell@ilsr.org
johnffarrell