全球遊戲產業概論

全球遊戲產業概況與趨勢
Game Industry Landscape
and Forecast

雷爵網絡科技周佳君
Faust Chou
faustcare@gmail.com

Lecture Material of Global Game Industry, 2011 Jun

Global Game Market
Video games has exceed movie box office.


Global Game Market
Size :
•2001 $27B
•2003 $40B
•2008 $61B
•2010 $67B
2015 $70.1B
Genre Platform Game play


Global Game Market Summery
•There is not that much difference in market tastes around the world
for mobile games. That being said, there are few games that work
well for all global markets
•Focus now is on networked games and other 3G type content
•Female gamers making up a bigger % of users monthly
•No matter how good game is, proper marketing support essential
•Fast game play better than slow game play. Also, in general,
arcade games easier to market than puzzle or board games
• If at all possible, brand your game


•Operators becoming much more picky about which games they
offer. This means differentiation and uniqueness to markets a key
for companies to make money:
•Branding
•New genre of game for a certain market
•Different look and feel in playability
•With new phones coming out faster than ever, ability to port quickly
becoming more important


•Mobile gaming business slowly getting bigger. However, expect rapid
consolidation globally in the near future
• Mobile games to look like Xbox and PS2 games
• Developers should focus less on game volume and more on quality
•Almost 90% of successful games have beautiful graphics, and main
character of game should be visually appealing


Video Game
The biggest entertainment expense
you have to pay


Video Game Market


24% Spent On Entertainment Is
On Video Games Annual Spending
Video games Music concerts Music
Movie ticket DVD Rental DVD Purhcase

27% 24%

7%
17%
9%
16%


Global video game software market

2005 : $30.3 billion
2009 : $46.5 billion
2010 : $47.5 billion


VIDEO GAME STACK
Channel

Console Cloud App Stores Retailers / E-tailers
Commerce

Communication

Console Networks ISPs 3G Social
Networks

Game Content
Traditional Developer / Publishers Mobile Developers Social Developers

Operating
Platform
Client OS Browser Mobile OS Social Network

Hardware
Game Consoles PC Mobile / Tablets

REVENUE CAPTURE REVENUE SPLITTING
• HARDWARE IS THE
ARCH. CONTROL POINT

Console gaming
HW
• Console is usually closed
and proprietary,
dominated by a few
Content players
Retailing • Big mkt. leaders and small
independent developers
Channel • Many offline and online
Sub- Banner distribution & retail shops
scription Ads

• Hardware is usually open
HW
• SOCIAL GAMES CONTROL
PURCHASE OF VIRTUAL
User GOODS
In-Game Content
Profile • APP STORES CONTROL

Cloud gaming
Ads (IGA) PHASE OF GAME
Info PURCHASE
Virtual Channel • SOCIAL NETWORK
Goods CONTROLS PHASE OF
GAME PLAY
Communication
• ISP is important for mobile
games

Pmt. • It becomes more critical due
to emergence of new
payment methods


BUSINESS THEMES
DEMOGRAPHICS SOCIAL MEDIA
• 40% of men who play console games play • 50% of Facebook’s 500 million active users
10+ hours per week Who’s play social games
• 41% of Americans plan to purchase 1+ Industry Facebook
Playing? • 40% of usage time on Facebook is spent on
games in 2010 gaming Age
Age

<18 18-49 50+
67% 8-19 20-49 50+
OF AMERICANS PLAY • Average age of social media gamer is 29
• Average age of game players is 35 and • Privacy is a growing concern, Facebook
has been playing for 12 years
CPU OR VIDEO GAMES
announced “Zero Tolerance for Data
CASUAL / MOBILE GAMING 17% Brokers”
REVENUE STREAMS
Americans Who Play Games on
INDUSTRY CAGR IN Virtual Currency & Goods
Wireless Devices SALES, LAST 10 YRS • 53% of social gamers have used
virtual currency in a game
• Virtual goods account for over 90% of
revenue for top social game developers
Subscription Services
2007 2008 2009 • Streaming game services revenue forecasted
• Mobile gaming revenue forecasted to reach $10B by to reach $400mm by 2014
2014
In-Game Advertising (IGA)
Casual gaming is “Fastest growing mass medium” in • In game advertising is forecasted to
history reach $1 billion in 2014
• ~3B segment in 2010
• 62% of casual gamers are over the age of 35
• 52% of casual gamers are femaleLecture Material of Global Game Industry, 2011 Jun

TECHNOLOGY THEMES
NETWORKS & CONNECTIVITY
Online Platforms & Communities Real-Time Data Cloud Gaming

• Massive • Dynamic • Play games
multiplayer creative ads; instantly
action IGA $1B by
2014 • No high-end
• Connected to hardware
mainstream • Connection to required
entertainment external
systems • No patching
• Sharing with or upgrading
e.g. xBox Live, PSN, friends/family
e.g. EA, IGA WW, • Macro-social
e.g. OnLive,
Facebook Double Fusion analysis Zynga, LoLapps

HARDWARE & INTERFACE CONTENT & DEVELOPMENT
SplinterNet Innovative Controllers Collaborative/Indie Dynamic Updates
• Breeds cross-platform
Development • Feedback enables patches
interactions and cloud- and continuous
gaming • Crowdsourcing and open improvement via cloud
publishing networks drive
• publishes games for long tail dev. and usage
22 different platforms…
• Open APIs/SDKs for mobile
• Increasing gaming power on apps enable critical mass
mobile devices
• Digital distribution negates
Mobile Handheld • Transcending boundaries restrictive publishing costs • Geo-based gaming reflects
+53% -13% opens door for partnerships real-world environment


PC Game
Most profitable market if you can find the right tips


PC Game Market
BROAD PLATFORM

•Where there are just over 100M current generation
console owners there are over 1B PCs in use globally.

•In many markets like China, the presence of Internet
cafés makes online gaming accessible to virtually anyone.

NICHE MARKET

•However, while PCs are more prevalent than game
consoles, PC gaming has a few limitations.

•Including MMO and other digital distribution / pay to play
revenue streams, the PC Gaming Alliance pegs the total

PC game market at $10.7B.

Online Games is seeing
significant growth.
US$40,000,000,000

US$30,000,000,000

US$20,000,000,000

US$10,000,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Worldwide Online MP and MMP Games Revenue

MMO Game Trends
WOW DOMINATION

•Because of the network effect (as the
product base grows, the product becomes
more useful to any onen dividual ), we believe
WoW is likely to maintain its leadership
position for the foreseeable future.

•1.2M Register Members (Pay User)
•2011 Q1GREW 27%
•310 million 2010


World of Warcrafts


Online Games is growing world-wide
Worldwide - Game-savvy new generation leading the market
• Grow up with interactive entertainment, more comfortable with technology than any generation
in history (source: IDSA)
• Over 15 Million people in the US & Europe will pay $1.4B to play online games by YE 2002
(source: Datamation)
• Advertising revenue will be 30 % of the market; bulk of revenue to come from subscriptions
Asia Pacific
• 25%+ of the WW $40B market in 2003 is in Asia Pacific (source: ABN Amro)
• Early adopters due to broadband push in Japan and Asia Pacific
• Korea largest single market for MMP play.
• The Chinese say there are more people playing online games in china than Korea has people.
But they overlook the fact that the Chinese are playing KOREAN GAMES!!


Online Games is growing world-wide
Americas
• 40% of US homes will have a video game by year end 2002 (source: Carmel Group)
• US on line games revenue predictions range from $4.5B to $5B in 2005 (inputs: Forrester,
Accenture)

Europe
• UK considered proving ground for on-line console services; France/ Germany lead total
console market); Germany largest broadband market
• 27.5% of the WW $40B market in 2003 is in Europe (source: Forrester)
• 12.7 M European homes will have the technology to play on-line console games by 2005, with
50% expected to subscribe to online games.


Online Games - Industry Snapshot
Revenue vs. expense challenges
• Online games can cost as much as a movie to create
• Online games can earn as much revenue as a movie
Changing business models
• Industry moving from software development model to media/entertainment model
• Risk & cost is driving fragmentation
Increasing game complexity
• Higher quality graphics, realism - drives up cost, code complexity
• More complex game play - drives up development & test time
• Collaboration, voice, etc become expected features - creates barriers to entry
• Eroding barriers between what’s real and what’s virtual (in-game pizza?)


Online Games - Industry Snapshot
Game device fragmentation
• Multiple major consoles companies: Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft
• PC’s, PDA’s, phones - and hybrid devices - more every day
• Connectivity challenges
• Low bandwidth (phones, some PC’s); vs. broadband required for xBox
• Broadband has widely varying penetration - US vs. Korea
• Piracy, Digital Rights Management


Industry Trends and Drivers
Current Drivers
• Broadband penetration to the home, enabling digital distribution and online gaming.
• More powerful PCs and laptops at lower prices.
• Better graphic processors, more disc space, etc.
• Improvement in quality of games, often with social elements (VoIP, text chat, etc.).
• Longer console lifecycles.
• Growth in adoption of smart phones and other handheld devices that support gaming
applications.
• Changing demographics: The web-literacy rate among the target audience has been
growing constantly.


Industry Trends and Drivers
Inhibitors
• Macroeconomic weakness and uncertainty, which impacts consumer spending,
advertisements and investment.
• Piracy: Illegal file downloading / disks.
• Free content available on the Internet, which lowers demand for premium titles.
• Platform incompatibility: Some hardware cannot play select software.
• High bar to produce sophisticated titles; costly and time-consuming to develop.


Online Game in the United States


Mobile Game Market
BRICKBREAKER

•Global market for mobile phone games reached

an estimated $3.5B in FY09.

•Growth in the industry appears to have fallen short
of earlier expectations.
•Limitations of handset technology, and a generally
restrictive distribution mechanism likely explains
the shortfall.


Mobile Game Market
I GAME

•Apple is solving two key hurdles to mobile phone gaming:
1) customizing every game for every device;
2) distribution challenges.
•The iPhone/iPod Touch appear to be significantly altering the mobile phone game market.
•Still, control mechanics limit the scope of games thatcan be effectively played. For
instance, using tilt to control games tilts the screen away from the player's field of vision.

•And, using onscreen virtual buttons that leverage Apple's touch sensitive screen also
reduces the available space for depicting the game itself.


What`s driving the market Growth?
•Increasing availability of digital content, and input/ output devices to take
advantage of digital content
• Next Generation game consoles
• Mobile Phone handset upgrades
• The convergence between Hollywood & Silicon Valley
• Broadband penetration - global households up from 82M to 320M, 31.3% CAGR
• Key technology innovation & industry adoption of open standards and
exponential reductions in storage, processor & networking costs


Casual Game
Simple games for the mass


Casual Game Sample

Matching Games Time management Hidden Object
Games Games


Casual Game Lessons
• Everyone will buy games on the Internet if they’re designed to appeal to cater to
their interests

• Online, games need to be at the right level of difficulty appeal to the intended
audience

• Work with portals to achieve a large enough audience to generate enough
transaction for profitability

• The success of Xbox Live Arcade shows that hardcore gamers work on consoles
• The logic of light-weight MMOs:
• 6 or 7 figure budgets (initially)
• Free to play, up sell with status items (clothing, leader boards ,furniture , etc.)
• Far shorter development times
• Modest technical complexity
• 10-20% of your audience will pay


Club Penguin
• Flash mini games aimed at kids held together with a virtual world metaphor
• Free to play
• $6/month premium membership for status items
• Key distribution arrangement with Miniclips
• #1 free game site on the Internet, >40m monthly uniques
• Receives 50% of lifetime revenue from users who join CP via Miniclips
• Sold to Disney for $350m


Runescape
• Browser-playable, traditional fantasy MMO
• 9 millions active players
• Of which 1 million pay $5/month for premium services
• Plus advertising revenue
• Player acquisition largely by word of mouth


Social Network Game
Accessible anywhere and at the same time
And will became the biggest power in the industry


What are Social Games?
•Interactive online game based on social network provided
by platforms.

•Initially started as a social application, and later
developed to a text game, then to flash games.


•Current mainstreams are simulation games such as
farming/ running restaurants/ building cities/ managing
aquariums/ raising pets...etc

•Reasons behind the success of simulation games:
Never ending/ asynchronous play time/ comparable with
friends


•Platforms are currently restricted to SNS but will later on
expand to different social platforms such as portals,
mobiles... Etc

•Distinctive features such as web-based/asynchronous
play time/doesn't require installation/ small size... will
eventually expand the other way


Why Social Games?
•In the beginning, we all loved games
•RPG Conquers the Game Market
•Light gamers have no games to play...
•People came to believe that
“they've never liked games from the beginning”

•Easy games for light gamers return!
Easy games that people once used to play start coming back to SNS
Furthermore, these games provide “things to do” as well as entertainments
between neighbors and friends within the SNS.


Why Social Games?
• Population = 500+ million active users
•50% of our active users log on to Facebook in any
given day
•Average user has 130 friends
•People spend over 700 billion minutes per month
on Facebook


Why Social Games?
•Global reach
70 translations available on the site
About 70% of Facebook users are outside the
United States


Why Social Games?
•Behavior
People install 20 million applications every day
Average of 10,000 new websites integrate with
Facebook every day
More than 2.5 million websites have integrated with
Facebook, including over 80 of comScore's U.S.
Top 100 websites and over half of comScore's
Global Top 100 websites


Why Social Games?
• Mobility
250+ million active users currently accessing
Facebook through their mobile devices.

There are more than 200+ mobile operators in 60
countries working to deploy and promote Facebook
mobile products

•

Social Network Platform


Why Social Games?


Why Social Games?

And finally BANG!


Present Social Games Market

•Facebook, the No. 1 global SNS has recently
exceeded 450M users / Annual revenue of $1 billion

•Zynga became 2nd largest merchant of Paypal in 2009,
With daily revenue of $1M / MAU above 1M users / 185 Apps


Social Games Future
• extend to iPhone /Androids.
• Future trend of games will contain mobile elements .


Social Games Future
• Adobe Flash soon will go for apple
•CS5 Released in May 2010/ publishable in “.ipa” format/
operates well/ But Blocked out by Apple's policy


Social Games Future
• Mobile will bring SNG to the top hill
•Key = Social Graph + Anywhere


Mobile Game
Significant numbers and social network ability lead
It became the next generation superstar


What is a Mobile Game?

 Embedded
 SMS
 Browser
 Download
 J2ME
 BREW
 iPhone/Android/Blackberry

Lecture Material of Global Game Industry, 2011 Jun © dux digital

4.0
> billion mobile users in the world

5.5
> billion USD mobile games revenue worldwide

6.0
> billion mobile users in the world forecasted in
5 years
© dux digital

9.8
> billion USD games revenue worldwide
forecasted in five years

60%
> the percentage of casual mobile gamers in
Australia who are female

200
> Million Java/J2ME games downloaded in 2008


34
> Million iPhone and Touch handsets out there today

1
> Billion apps downloaded


Mobile Game Market
Number of Mobile Gamers – US (Millions) 94.9
88.0
79.0
72.8
64.0
57.4
45.6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CAGR (2009 – 2014) 10.6%
Source: eMarketer – US Mobile Gamers – July 2010


Mobile Game Market
140 One Third of Gamers use Mobile
56%
120 53%

100 Console
41%
38% MMOs
80 36%
PC/Mac (boxed)
60 PC/Mac (digital)
24% 23%
Online Casual
40
Social Networks
20 Mobile

0
US Gamers by Platform

Source: newzoo – US National Gamers Survey 2010


Mobile Game Market
Investor / Publisher Feedback
• Apple - $1billion dollars to developers
• 200,000 applications - $5,000 / app (ave)
• < 5% of mobile downloads are monetized
• Social Mobile is the next hot area of growth
• Excited by the rapid adoption of tablets
• Investor - “I don’t need another flash developer – I can
get 20 for the price of 1 in Indonesia. We need
developers who understand game mechanics and how
they are used to make money.”


Japan’s main Social Network Service Players
As the most challenging mobile market in the
world, Japan got various new trends.


Casual Games in Japan


Brand Extension: TV Game Show

• “Very profitable”
• Mobilized web games
• Game rules mimics shows
• Monthly game packs add new
answers & puzzles

“Jeopardy”, “Wheel of Fortune”
by Sony Pictures Digital Entertainment


Multimedia Composition
• “Text to picture” engine
• Type in text message (eg SMS)
• Send to fun mail short code with your
targets address
• Fun Mail engine picks images to match
your text
• Sends as EMS/MMS/… based on
recipient


Multimedia Composition
• Use SanRio’s “Hello Kitty” to
send messages to your friends.
• You can choose what outfit she
wears and different compositions


Trend: Game Packs - bundling
• New games every
month to stop
unsubscribing
• For $1/month take up
to three games
• Using Tetris to bring
people in and other
games to keep them


Trend: Multiplayer games
• Ranked #3 on docomo’s game pack
menu
• Good variety of games including
board
games and sports like Billiards
• Packet fees are still very high and
ICPs don’t get a cut, so little motivation
to get users rack up huge packet fee
bills.
• Example: a game of othello will cost
50cents per player
• Korea is much more flourishing for
multiplayer where the biz model
supports CPs


Trend: 3D Games

• Docomo regards the ‘505’ handset as a
PlayStation 1
• Currently many japanese game companies are
porting hit 3D PS1 titles to mobile
• RidgeRacer was the pack-in game for the PS1.
Different makers are bundling games with their
handsets.


Cross Media: link to Web
• Play on PC
• Pay via Mobile.
• Purchase virtual objects using
Premium SMS
• Multiplayer Graphic Chat


JooJoo: Social Game Portal

Social game portal
• Raise pets with your friends
• Non-realtime Battle games with other users
• Paid gifts and other virtual items
• Write blog articles to raise your in-game level
• Your avatar shows up in games and also on your blog and home page


Operation: events, goods, community, metrics

In social games the post-launch service operation is a critical success factor.
Pikkle has deep experience in running these services.
Japanese users also expect a high-level of customer support. We also know
how to build activity in the fan communities around our games.


Operation: events, goods, community, metrics

• The mobile phone is a PlayStation!
• Almost identical to the PlayStation version: Devil Car and Easter Eggs!
• Created a new high 500yen price point for premium content
• Blockbuster - the most expensive mobile game yet
• 100,000 downloads sold!
• The SH53 handset sold 500K units, so we achieved 20% penetration


Monetizing the Social Games


Package: Monthly Rental


On the small screen: the brand is King
On mobile, branded games hugely outsell unbranded
• The tiny mobile phone storefront gives just an instant for consumers to
decide which game to download
• Well-known games win every time
• Namco is a giant in the Japanese game industry with group consolidated
turnover of $1.4BN in 2002


Docomo Weekly Guide
• Very high traffic mobile site which is a guide to what’s new on i-mode
• A way for the carrier to include more “editorial opinion” than just straight rankings
• “weekly guide” you could foresee Docomo’s stance like “contents magazine”.
• Never be a CP on their own to enable an even field for the content providers
• Introducing “what’s new”
• Special Feature
• Sites that use new tech or handsets
• Emoji graphics
• Tips and Tricks
• Single Banner ad


Trend: mobile charts
• Site Ranking creates a fair competitive field
• Different carriers rank their games in different ways – number of subscribers, page
accesses, or revenue.


Mobile games boost ARPU!
• Voice ARPU is falling everywhere, but data is rising
• Games create significant data traffic – the second “S” curve
• Our well known brands are helping operators attract a mass market
mobile game audience and launch their data services

Launch of the 503, japan’s first java capable
mobile phone helped Namco subscriptions
to take off and now similar Java launches
are happening all over the world.


Mobile Game Market Trends

• Mobile is a growth area for game development
• Significant number of existing gamers are
using mobile devices
• Business model – marketing and monetization
• Investor interest in social mobile gaming


US Game Market
Branded games and music is the driving force
for game market in US.


US Game Market
2008 Top U.S. Interactive Entertainment Software
Publishers

EA
ACTIVISION
20%
24% NINTENDON NA
TAKE-TWO
3% UBISOFT
17% THQ
4%
MICROSOFT
4%
SONY
5% 17%
6% OTHERS


US Game Market
Publisher Top Brands (U.S. Sales 2008)

Electronic Arts Activision Nintendo Take-two

Rock band Guitar Hero Mario Brother Grand theft Auto
US$ 662M US$ 992M US$ 761M US$ 361M


US Game Market


China Game Market
A young market with internet cafe as main
distribution channel.


China Game Market
China a Vast but Hard to Tap Market

NO CONSOLE MARKET

INTERNET / GAME CAFÉ BOOM
China’s online game market rose 63% Y/Y in
CY08 to $2.8B.
But, China is banning foreign investment in
online games.

YOUNG MARKET
70% of China’s 298 million Internet users are
under the age of 30, and 65% of those have
played online games.


China Game Market
Online Game Type China online game type

MMORPG
STRETEGY
COMPETITION
CASUAL

•MMORPG(Massively Multiplayer online Role Playing Game)
• Strategy: Team work strategy (ex: Sango Online)
• Competition: race game or shoot game (ex: CS online)
• Casual game: gambling game or game for fun(ex: porker. Mahjong)


Thank you for your time


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