2. Outline
• Review of Hurricane Hazards: surge,
wind, rain, tornadoes; which ones
are a threat to your location?
• Ways to monitor storms during the
hurricane season
• 2014 Hurricane Season forecast
3. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Potential Hazards
Storm Surge Flooding Tornadoes
Flooding Rains
Damaging Winds
Every storm is different as far as combination of hazards
TS Allison (2001)
Ike (2008), Carla (1961)
Alicia (1983)
Andrew (1992)
Buelah (1967)
4. Hurricane Threats
STORM SURGE – The abnormal rise in water level due to
the storm (wind pushes water onto land); If the surge+tide
(stormtide) is greater than your elevation you will have
flooding
Storm Surge Example – hurricane makes landfall at high
tide
18. Stay Aware of What is Going on in Tropics
• Before storm develops look at Tropical Weather
Outlook to see which disturbances may develop
• Once the storm forms…
– Look at the detailed forecast for your area; NWS will
forecast wind speed, rainfall amount, surge height and
tornado threat
– All storms are different; will next one be more of a TS
Allison, Hurricane Ike or Hurricane Andrew?
Houston Weather Forecast Office:
http://weather.gov/houston
National Hurricane Center: http://hurricanes.gov
19. A Great Way to Stay Informed:
Tropical Weather Outlook
Text Graphic
Identifies which disturbances have potential to become a tropical storm
within 48 hours with a probability assigned to each.
20. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013
Forecast Group Number of
Named Storms
Number of
Hurricanes
Number of Major
Hurricanes (cat 3 or
larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-
2010)
12 6.5 2
Weather Channel 16 9 5
Colorado State 18 9 4
National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6
Cuba Institute 17 9
Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4
Accuweather 16 8 4
Actual ? ? ?
How did the forecast turn out?
21. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013
Forecast Group Number of
Named Storms
Number of
Hurricanes
Number of Major
Hurricanes (cat 3 or
larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-
2010)
12 6.5 2
Weather Channel 16 9 5
Colorado State 18 9 4
National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6
Cuba Institute 17 9
Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4
Accuweather 16 8 4
Actual 13 2 0
Forecast was off! Numbers well below forecast, especially hurricanes.
22. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2014
Forecast Group Number of
Named Storms
Number of
Hurricanes
Number of Major
Hurricanes (cat 3 or
larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-
2010)
12 6.5 2
Colorado State 9 3 1
Weather Underground 7-9 1-3 0-2
NOAA 8-13 3-6 2
Actual ? ? ?
Climate Pattern called El Nino setting up which normally limits
number of storms; also tropical waters cool for this time of year;
still it only takes one and Alicia and Andrew occurred during
“quiet” years
Is this information useful? Are we in the clear this year?
23. El Nino and La Nina
Climate.gov
Usually means fewer Atlantic
storms
Usually means more Atlantic
storms
26. Weather Information from NWS
Houston/Galveston
• Web: weather.gov/houston
• Twitter: @NWSHouston
• Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherSer
vice.HoustonGalveston.gov
• Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSHouston
Forecast details presented graphically through
web and social media