We tend to see megatrends as moving exponentially in the future, forgetting that counter-movements can become quite predominant as well at some point. This presentation gives a preview into what would happen if either the trends or their 'antitrend' would prevail. Obviously, the real future will be somewhere inbetween, this is just a thought experiment... enjoy!

1. megatrends and antitrends
how the extreme future might look like
frederic de meyer
founder
institute for future insights
frederic@i4fi.com
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com

2. What this presentation is about
• No trend will grow exponentially indefinitely … for most trends we
investigate at the Institute for Future Insights, we can imagine (or
actually see) ‘antitrends’ emerge. How the future will turn out at
the end will depend on the dynamics between trends and
antitrends (and on black swans, of course).
• This presentation is a thought experiment to see what would
happen if either trends or antitrends would become predominant.
This is a ‘black and white’ story, the ultimate ‘truth’ will obviously
lie somewhere in between….
• This is a neutral investigation and does not intend at formulating
any judgment !

3. globalization localization
The world will become one An increasing portion of our
single market without consumption will originate
boundaries from our direct environment
Main drivers: Main drivers:
• connectivity • protectionism
• cheap labor and products • global warming, climate change
• trading blocks • cost of transport (oil)

4. urbanization back to the country
Virtually all humankind will Increasing amount of people will
live in urban areas choose to live away from cities
Main drivers:
Main drivers:
• opportunities
• health
• access to education, health
• connectivity (distant working)
• communities

5. new forms of migration …will prove unfounded
Global warming will instigate New technologies will counter
massive new migration global warming effects
Main drivers: Main drivers:
• famine, desertification extreme weather • genetic engineering
conditions • social entrepreneurship
• talent gap and aging population will make • increasing young population (as % of total
developed countries attract new migrants population) increases growth potential

6. scarcity of natural people will learn to live
resources with less
Humanity will keep on Humanity will learn to balance
consuming scarce natural consumption and availability of
resources until they run dry natural resources
Main drivers: Main drivers:
• rise of middle class in emerging markets • scarcity of natural resources
• globalization • sustainability becomes major business concern
• green technologies

7. geographic mobility work and learn at home
GenY will massively move to Work and learning will be
where the (economic) action is totally location-independent
Main drivers: Main drivers:
• decline of developed economies • technological advancements
• long-lasting crises • virtual corporations
• multicultural world • microtasking, crowdsourcing, open innovation

8. genY ~
genY = new paradigm (babyboomers)^(x)
GenY will bring a completely GenY will revive some of the
new set of values to work and traditional values of
society (grand)parents
Main drivers: Main drivers:
• self awareness (‘me’ generation) • aversion of complexity
• ethically conscious, sensible to sustainability • social ‘not-working’
• bring own technology to workspace • back to human touch

9. customization simplification
Every product made will Consumers will return to ‘one
eventually be tailor-made size fits all’ products
Main drivers: Main drivers:
• power of consumers • aversion of complexity
• genY self-awareness • benefits do not match the cost
• production sophistication

10. opting out becomes
ever more connected fashionable
People will retract from
Virtually all people and things
connected life in search of the
are connected to a central grid
‘real’ experience
Main drivers:
• digital divide Main drivers:
• imperative to make a living • simplicity
• social existence • traditionalists (back to ancestors’ values)

11. robotization and hands and crafts
automation revival
Virtually all human (professional)
Traditional work will be cool
activity will be automated or
and very much sought-after
performed by robots
Main drivers:
Main drivers: • increased risk (due to increased dependency on
• efficiency gains tech)
• technological advancements • personal touch / creativity
• artificial intelligence

12. market state state control
Private companies will Government will increasingly
increasingly take over public take over (troubled) private
responsibility activities
Main drivers: Main drivers:
• public debt • crises
• globalization • anti-globalism, anti-capitalism
• social entrepreneurship

13. Discover our services…
° thought-provoking speeches for your strategic planning session or industry event
° training on how to manage a megatrend exercise in your company
° assist you all the way in conducting an in-house megatrend exercise
° audit your business in how future-proof you –and your competitors- are in the
light of megatrends
website www.i4fi.com
blog www.fredericdemeyer.com
mail frederic@i4fi.com
Phone +32 478 68 13 08
for useful long-term planning tools: http://www.i4fi.com/useful_tools.html

14. Are you prepared to make the maximum
out of long-term trends?
“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes
translate into new business opportunities. This book is an
essential tool for any future-oriented manager or
entrepreneur and anyone involved in innovation strategies”
Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation
“Designing and implementing a good strategy is quite a
challenge. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming
increasingly difficult to recognize the core from the noise.
This book on megatrends will help you do this. It will give
you the necessary insights to focus on the themes that are
crucial to the future of your company. A must read!”
Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance
Factory, author of Strategy Execution Heroes
“This excellent book is a comprehensive overview of the
major trends and also offers a methodology to better assess
the future reality and master its consequences. The author
provides an essential guide for any strategy exercise”
Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble
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