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Valuation in FED	
2013/3/24	
1
自己紹介&Ice	
  Break	
•  名前	
  
•  所属	
•  勉強会に参加したきっかけ	
  
2
Contents	
•  Part1 Foundations of Value	
•  Part2 Core Valuation Techniques	
•  Part3 Intrinsic Value and the Stock Market	
•  Part4 Managing for Value	
•  Part5 Advanced Valuations Issues	
•  Part6 Special Situations	
3
Part1 Foundations of Value	
4th Edition	
 5th Edition	
第1章企業価値の最大化	
Why Maximize Value?
1. Why Value Value?	
第2章企業価値を創造する経営者	
The Value Manager
	
2.Fundamental Principles of Value Creation	
	
第3章価値創造の本質	
Fundamental Principles of Value Creation
3.The Expectations Treadmill	
第4章株式市場は何で動くのか	
Do Fundamentals Really Drive the stock Market?	
	
4.Return on Invested Capital	
	
5.Growth	
4
Part1 Foundations of Value	
1.  Why Value Value?	
2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation	
3.  The Expectations Treadmill	
4.  Return on Invested Capital	
5.  Growth	
5
What	
  is	
  value?	
6
What is Value?	
•  Value is defining dimension of measurement in a market
economy.	
•  Value is a particularly helpful measure of performance because
it takes into account the long-term interests of all the
stakeholders in a company,not just shareholders.	
•  Competition among value-focused companies also helps to
ensure that capital,human capital,and natural resources are
used efficiency across the economy,leading to higher living
standards for everyone.	
7
(P3)
Fundamental principles of corporate finance	
Companies create value by investing capital to
generate future cash flow at rate of return that
exceed their cost of capital. (P17)	
8
Two core principles of value creation	
•  The combination of growth and return on invested
capital(ROIC) relative to its cost is what drives
value.	
–  Companies can sustain strong growth and high returns
on invested capital only if they have a well-defined
competitive advantage.	
•  Conservation of value	
–  Anything that doesn't increase cash flow doesn't create
value.	
  
–  M・M	
  theory	
9
(P4)
The economics and process of value creation	
•  the economics of value creation	
–  how competitive advantage enables some companies to
earn higher returns on invested capital than others.	
	
	
•  the process of measuring value	
–  how to calculate return on invested capital from a
company's accounting statements. 	
10
(P4)
Consequences of forgetting to value value	
Market bubbles	
 Many executives and investors either forgot or
threw out fundamental rules of economics in the
rarefied air of the Internet revolution(P6).	
Financial Crises 	
 Securitizaing risky home made the loans more
valuable because it reduced the risk of the
assets and this violates the conservation of
value rule(P7).	
Financial Crises and
excessive	
Using leverage to make an investment in itself
creates value(P8).	
11
Benefits of focusing on long-term value	
•  Pursuing the creation of long-term shareholder value does
not cause stake holders to suffer.	
•  Value-creating companies also create more jobs.	
•  A strong positive correlation between long-term shareholder
returns and investment in research and development 	
•  Companies that create also tend to show a greater
commitment to meeting their social responsibilities.	
12
(P11-P12)
Value-creating companies also
create more jobs?	
13
Black	
  Stone	
  
	
  -­‐King	
  of	
  Capital-­‐	
•  プライベートエクイティの傘下に入ることが雇用に与える影響に関する最
も網羅的な調査として、1980年から2005年までの4500以上の投資案件を
調べた物がある。	
  
•  そこでは、プライベートエクイティ傘下の企業では、買収直後の2年間は
一般企業と比べて雇用の削減率がやや高くなる傾向があるが、長期的
には削減した分を上回る雇用を生み出すことが明らかになった。(P412)	
14
デビット・キャリー&ジョン・E・モリス(2011)
『ブラックストーン』東洋経済新報社
機械との競争	
  
-­‐テクノロジーは雇用を破壊する-­‐	
15
•  技術の進歩は、すべての人の所得を自動的に押し上げる上げ潮のような
ものではない。富の総量が増えたとしても、勝ち組と負け組が出来ることは
ありうるし、むしろそうなることの方が多いのである。しかも負け組の方が
少ないとは限らないのだ。
•  馬車とともに姿を消した馬車用靴の職人が労働人口に占める割合は小さ
かったが、今度はそうはいかない。労働人口の90%が負け組になることだ
ってあり得る。(P75)
エリク・ブリニョルフソン, アンドリュー・マカフィー (2013)
『機械との競争』日経BP社
16
Bowing	
  vs	
  Facebook	
17
The	
  number	
  
of	
  employees	
Market	
  
capitalizaOon	
Bowing	
 Facebook	
$ 64,137MM	
 $61,292 MM	
171,700
(Dec,31, 2011)	
3,200
Part1 Foundations of Value	
1.  Why Value Value?	
2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation	
3.  The Expectations Treadmill	
4.  Return on Invested Capital	
5.  Growth	
18
Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value	
19
Return on 	
investment capital	
Revenue growth	
Cash flow	
Cost of of Capital	
Value
DCF Valuation	
20
Value Inc.	
Year1	
 Year2	
 Year3	
 Year4	
 Year5	
 YearX	
 Sum	
Revenue	
 1,000 	
 1,050 	
 1,103 	
 1,158 	
 1,216 	
 ・・・	
Earnings 	
 100 	
 105 	
 110 	
 116 	
 122 	
 ・・・	
Investment	
 (25)	
 (26)	
 (28)	
 (29)	
 (30)	
 ・・・	
Cash flow	
 75 	
 79 	
 83 	
 87 	
 91 	
 ・・・	
Value today	
 68 	
 65 	
 62 	
 59 	
 57 	
 ・・・	
 1,500 	
Volume Inc	
Year1	
 Year2	
 Year3	
 Year4	
 Year5	
 YearX	
 Sum	
Revenue	
 1,000 	
 1,050 	
 1,103 	
 1,158 	
 1,216 	
 ・・・	
Earnings 	
 100 	
 105 	
 110 	
 116 	
 122 	
 ・・・	
Investment	
 (50)	
 (53)	
 (55)	
 (58)	
 (61)	
 ・・・	
Cash flow	
 50 	
 53 	
 55 	
 58 	
 61 	
 ・・・	
Value today	
 45 	
 44 	
 41	
 40 	
 38 	
 ・・・	
 1,000 	
Exhibit2.2(P19)
Relationship of Growth,ROIC,and Cash Flow	
•  Growth,ROIC,and Cash flow(as represented by the investment rate)are
tied together mathematically in the following relationship.	
	
21
Investment Rate	
=Growth ÷ Return on Invested Capital	
Value Inc 	
 :25%=5%÷20%	
Volume Inc	
 :50%=5%÷10%
Translating Growth and ROIC into value	
3%	
 800 	
 1,100 	
 1,400 	
 1,600 	
6%	
 600 	
 1,100 	
 1,600 	
 2,100 	
9%	
 400 	
 1,100 	
 1,900 	
 2,700 	
7%	
 9%	
 13%	
 25%	
ROIC	
22
Growth	
Exhibit2.4(P21)
Impact of higher growth and ROIC 	
•  High-ROIC companies should focus on growth	
•  Low-ROIC companies should focus on improving returns
before growing	
23
Exhibit2.5(P24)
6%	
  
10%	
  
1%	
  higher	
  ROIC	
  
1% higher	
  growth	
  
High-ROIC company	
Typical packaged-goods company	
15%	
  
5%	
  
1%	
  higher	
  ROIC	
  
1% higher	
  growth	
  
Moderate-ROIC company	
Typical retailer
What	
  creates	
  value?	
  
What	
  produces	
  value?	
24
Value Creation of type of Growth	
25
Exhibit2.6(P25)	
The most important implication of this chart is the rank order.
New products typically create more value for shareholders,
while acquisitions typically create the least.	
Acquire	
  business	
  
Compete	
  for	
  share	
  in	
  a	
  stable	
  market	
  
Increase	
  share	
  in	
  a	
  growing	
  market	
  
Expand	
  an	
  exsiOng	
  market	
  
Introduce	
  new	
  products	
  to	
  market	
   1.75-2.00	
0.30-0.75	
0.10-0.50	
-0.25-0.40	
0.-0.20	
Type of growth
世界の経営学者は	
  
いま何を考えているのか	
26
なぜ経営学者は買収額を払いすぎてしまうのか
(買収プレミアム)
1)  経営者の思い上がり
2)  自社をどうしても成長させたいというあせり
3)  国家を代表している言うプライド
入山章栄(2012)
『世界の経営学者はいま何を考えているのか』
英治出版
ConservaOon	
  of	
  Value	
•  Anything	
  that	
  doesn’t	
  increase	
  cash	
  flows	
  doesn’t	
  create	
  
value.	
  
•  Value	
  is	
  conserved,	
  or	
  unchanged,	
  when	
  a	
  company	
  changes	
  
the	
  ownership	
  of	
  claims	
  to	
  its	
  cash	
  flows	
  but	
  doesn’t	
  change	
  
the	
  total	
  available	
  cash	
  flows.	
  
•  In	
  every	
  circumstance,	
  execuOves	
  should	
  focus	
  on	
  increasing	
  
cash	
  flows	
  rather	
  than	
  finding	
  gimmicks	
  that	
  merely	
  
redistribute	
  value	
  among	
  investors	
  or	
  make	
  reported	
  results	
  
look	
  be]er.	
  	
  	
  
	
27
ApplicaOon	
•  AccounOng	
  policy(Chap16)	
  
•  AcquisiOons(Chap21)	
  
•  Corporate	
  por`olio	
  decisions(Chap19)	
  
•  Dividend	
  policy(Chap23)	
  
•  Capital	
  Structure(Chap23)	
28
Application for 

the conservation of value principle	
•  Share repurchases	
  
–  To	
  determine	
  whether	
  share	
  purchases	
  create	
  value,	
  you	
  must	
  
compare	
  them	
  with	
  some	
  other	
  use	
  of	
  the	
  cahs.	
•  Acquisition	
–  acquisitions create value only when the combined cash flows of the
two companies increase due to cost reductions,accelerated revenue
growth,or better use of fixed and working capital	
•  Financial engineering	
–  The total cash flows received by the CDO investors cannot be more
than they would receive if they directly owned the loans and
securities.	
 29
Cash	
  flows	
  related	
  to	
  	
  
Collateralized	
  Debt	
  ObligaOons	
30
Exhibit2.8(P33)
Risk and Value Creation	
•  A company's future cash flows are unknown and therefore
risky.	
•  Risk enters into valuation both through the company's cost
of capital,which is the price of risk,and in the uncertainty
surrounding future cash flows.	
•  The cost of capital to a company equals the minimum return
that investors expect to earn from investing in the company.	
31
P35
Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value	
32
Return on 	
investment capital	
Revenue growth	
Cash flow	
Cost of of Capital	
Value
Volatility of Portfolio Return

: Declining with Diversification	
33
Market volatility	
Volatility of portfolio return	
Number of stock portfolio	
Total Risk	
0	
•  The total risk declines because companies’ cash flow are not
correlated. Some will increase when others decline.
•  Investors require compensation only for risks they cannot diversify.
Terms for Valuation	
Net operating profit less adjusted taxes	
(NOPLAT) 	
the profit generateed from the company's core operations after
subtracting the income taxes related to the core operations.	
Invested Capital	
the cumulative amount the business has invested in its core
operations-primarily property,plant, and equipment and working
capital.	
Net investment	
 the increase in invested capital from one year to the next.	
Free Cash Flow	
(FCF)	
the cash flow generated by the core operations of the business
after deducting investments in new capital.	
Return on invested capital	
(ROIC=NOPLAT/Invested Capital)	
the return on the company earns on each dollar invested in the
business.	
Invested rate	
(IR=Net Investment/NOPLAT)	
the portion of NOPLAT invested back into the business.	
Weighted average cost of capital	
(WACC)	
the rate of return that investors expect to earn from investing in
the company and therefore the appropriate discount rate for the
free cash flow.	
Growth(g)	
the rate at which the company's NOPLAT and cash flow grow
each year	
34
DCF approach to valuation	
gWACC
ROIC
g
NOPLAT
Value
ROIC
g
NOPLATFCF
ROIC
g
IR
IRROICg
IRNOPLAT
IRNOPLATNOPLAT
InvestmentNetNOPLATFCF
gWACC
FCF
Value
t
t
−
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎝
⎛
−
=
−=
=
×=
−=
×−=
−=
−
=
=
=
1
)1(
1
)(
1
1
)(    
    
 
35
Company's earnings multiple	
⎟
⎟
⎟
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎜
⎜
⎜
⎝
⎛
−
−
=
−
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎝
⎛
−××
=
×=
−
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎝
⎛
−
=
=
gWACC
ROIC
g
ROIC
CapitalInvested
Value
gWACC
ROIC
g
ROICCapitalInvested
Value
ROICCapitalInvestedNOPLAT
gWACC
ROIC
g
NOPLAT
Value
t
1
1
1
1
  
 
 
36
company's earnings multiple is driven 	
by both its expected growth	
and its return on invested capital.
Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value	
37
Return on 	
investment capital	
Revenue growth	
Cash flow	
Cost of of Capital	
Value
Part1 Foundations of Value	
1.  Why Value Value?	
2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation	
3.  The Expectations Treadmill	
4.  Return on Invested Capital	
5.  Growth	
38
What	
  roll	
  do	
  expectaOons	
  have	
  	
  
in	
  stock	
  market?	
39
Return to the shareholders(TRS)	
•  The performance of a company and that of its management
are frequently measured by total returns to shareholders(TRS).	
•  TRS measure combines the amount shareholders gain through
any increase in the share price over a given period with the
sum of dividends paid to them over the period.	
	
•  Managers have to pull off herculean feats of real performance
improvement to satisfy investors's expectations and continue
improving TRS.	
–  “expectations treadmill”(期待との際限なき戦い)	
40
•  Managers have to pull off herculean feats of real
performance improvement to satisfy investors's
expectations and continue improving TRS.	
  
•  この期待に応えて株主に対するリターンを向上させ続けるた
めには、経営者は、英雄的な偉業ともいえる成果を挙げる必
要があるのだ。	
41
Decomposing TRS	
  
(TradiOonal	
  way)	
TRS=% change in share price + dividend yield	
=% Increase in Earnings + % change in P/E	
+ dividend yield	
	
42
※assuming P=E/r , we get the following equation by using
z=xy , z+△z=(x+△x)+(y+△y) 	
	
	
P+△P        = (E+△E)       + (r+△R)	
% change in share price =% Increase in Earnings + % change in P/E,	
	
P:Price	
E:Earnings	
r:discount rate(P/E)	
	
(P50)
A	
  few	
  problems	
  with	
  expressing	
  TRS	
•  Manager	
  might	
  assume	
  that	
  all	
  forms	
  if	
  earnings	
  growth	
  
create	
  an	
  equal	
  amount	
  of	
  value.	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  (ex.	
  AcquisiOon)	
  
•  The	
  dividend	
  yield	
  can	
  be	
  increased	
  without	
  affecOng	
  future	
  
earnings,	
  as	
  if	
  dividends	
  themselves	
  create	
  value.	
  
•  The	
  tradiOonal	
  expression	
  if	
  TRS	
  fails	
  account	
  for	
  the	
  impact	
  
of	
  financial	
  leverage.	
43
Break up the TRS equation into four parts	
  
(Enhanced	
  way)	
1.  The value generated from revenue growth net of the capital
required to grow.	
2.  What TRS would have been without any of the growth
measured in part1	
3.  Changes in shareholder's expectations about the company's
performance , measured by the change in its P/E or other
earnings multiple.	
4.  The impact of financial leverage on TRS.	
44
Wal-Mart vs Target:	
  
Wal-­‐Mart	
  ahead	
  in	
  Growth,	
  ROIC,	
  Not	
  TRS	
45
Exhibit3.1 (P49)
Wal-Mart vs Target:	
  
P/E	
  increase	
  helps	
  Target’s	
  TRS	
46
11	
  
15	
  
Target	
  
Wal-­‐Mart	
  
1995	
18	
  
16	
  
Target	
  
Wal-­‐Mart	
  
2006	
Exhibit3.2(P50)	
•  Relative to Wal-Mart, Target was starting from a position of low
shareholder expectations.
•  Target eventually sold its Mevyn’s and Marshall Field’s brands, after
which it beat expectations.- thereby raising expectations of its future
performance.
Wal-Mart vs Target:

TRS decomposition	
Target	
 Wal-mart	
 Difference	
Revenue growth	
 9	
 13	
 -4	
Investment for growth	
 -5	
 -3	
 -2	
Change in margin	
 4	
 0	
 4	
TRS from performance	
 8	
 10	
 -2	
Zero-growth return	
 6	
 4	
 2	
Change in P/E	
 5	
 0	
 5	
Impact of financial leverage	
 5	
 2	
 3	
other	
 0	
 -1	
 1	
Sum	
 24	
 15	
 9	
47
1995-2005,percent annualized	
Exhibit3.5 (P53)	
•  Better performance in one domain by one company was offset by better
performance in another domain by the other company.
•  We can conclude that the TRS differentiators for the two companies over the
next several years will mostly be underlying growth and returns on capital.
Understanding	
  expectaitons	
•  We	
  have	
  reverse	
  engineered	
  hundreds	
  of	
  companies’	
  share	
  
prices	
  over	
  the	
  years	
  using	
  discounted	
  cash	
  flows.	
  
•  With	
  the	
  excepOon	
  of	
  the	
  Internet	
  bubble	
  era,	
  at	
  least	
  80%	
  of	
  
the	
  companies	
  have	
  had	
  performance	
  expectaOons	
  built	
  into	
  
their	
  share	
  prices	
  that	
  are	
  in	
  line	
  with	
  industry	
  expectaOons	
  
and	
  returns	
  on	
  capital.	
  
•  The	
  other	
  20%	
  should	
  brace	
  themselves	
  for	
  a	
  significantly	
  
faster	
  or	
  slower	
  ride	
  on	
  the	
  treadmill.	
48
Managerial Implication	
•  The board will take a long-term view and continue to
support management's value creating priorities, even if
these do not imemediatley strengthen the share price.	
•  The expectations treadmill is virtually impossible to escape,
and we don't know any easy way to manage expectations
down.	
49
Part1 Foundations of Value	
1.  Why Value Value?	
2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation	
3.  The Expectations Treadmill	
4.  Return on Invested Capital	
5.  Growth	
50
The	
  fundamental	
  principles	
  
	
  of	
  value	
  creaOon	
•  The	
  value	
  of	
  a	
  business	
  depends	
  on	
  its	
  return	
  
on	
  invested	
  capital(ROIC)	
  and	
  growth.	
51
Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value	
52
Return on 	
investment capital	
Revenue growth	
Cash flow	
Cost of of Capital	
Value
Why	
  do	
  some	
  companies	
  develop	
  and	
  
sustain	
  much	
  higher	
  ROICs	
  than	
  others?
Drivers of ROIC	
ROIC = (1− Tax rate)
Price per Unit - Cost per Unit
Invested Capital per Unit
54
If a company has a competitive advantage,it earns a higher
ROIC,because it either charges a price premium or produces its
products more efficiency.
Definition of ROIC 

from valuation in practice	
     ROIC=NOPLAT/投下資産	
NOPLAT:EBITDA-EBITDAにかかる税金	
	
投下資産:運転資本(ワーキングキャピタル)	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +事業用有形固定資産	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +その他(事業用)資産	
55
鈴木一功(2004)「企業価値評価 実践編」ダイヤモンド社
Five	
  forces	
56
Threat	
  of	
  
new	
  entry	
Bargaining	
  
power	
  of	
  
suppliers	
The	
  degree	
  of	
  	
  
rivalry	
  among	
  
exisOng	
  
compeOtors	
  
Pressure	
  from	
  
subsOtute	
  
products	
Bargaining	
  
power	
  of	
  
buyers	
Because the five forces differ by industry and because companies within the
same industry can pursue different strategies, there can be significant
variation in ROIC across and within industries.
Company Profitability:Industry Matters	
57
The reason for this difference in the industries' performance lies mainly in 	
differences between their competitive structures.	
Exhibit4.1 (P61)	
Consumer goods	
Commodities	
Pharmaceutical and biotech
Sources of Competitive Advantage	
Price premium	
Innovative products	
 Difficult-to-copy or patented products, services or
technologies	
Quality	
 Customers willing to pay a premium for a real or
perceived difference quality over and above competing
products or services.	
Brand	
 Customers willing to pay a premium based on brand ,
even if there is no clear quality difference.	
Customer lock in	
Customers unwilling or unable to replace product or
service they use with a competing product or service.	
Rational price discipline	
 Lower bound on prices established by large industry
leaders through price signaling or capacity
management.	
58
Exhibit4.2(P62)
Sources of Competitive Advantage	
59
Cost and capital efficiency
Exhibit4.2(P62)
Innovative business method	
Difficult to copy business method that contrasts with
established industry practice.	
Unique resources	
Advantage resulting from inherent geological
characteristics or unique access to raw	
Economies of scale	
 Efficient scale or size for the relevant market	
Scalable product/process	
Ability to add customers and capacity at negligible
marginal cost
Empirical	
  results	
  of	
  ROIC	
•  The	
  median	
  ROIC	
  between	
  1963	
  and	
  2008	
  was	
  around	
  10%	
  
and	
  remained	
  relaOvely	
  constant	
  thought	
  the	
  period.	
  
•  ROICs	
  differ	
  by	
  industry	
  but	
  not	
  by	
  company	
  size.	
  
•  There	
  are	
  large	
  variaOon	
  in	
  rates	
  of	
  ROIC	
  between	
  and	
  within	
  
industries.	
  
•  Rates	
  of	
  ROIC	
  tend	
  to	
  remain	
  fairly	
  stable-­‐	
  especially	
  
compared	
  with	
  rates	
  of	
  growth.	
  
60
U.S-Based Nonfinancial companies:ROIC
1963-2008	
61
Acquiring companies haven't been able to extract much value from their acquisitions.	
Exhibit4.4(P71)
Distribution of ROIC:Shifting to Right	
62
There has been a recent shift toward more companies 	
earning very high returns on capital.	
(P73)	
Exhibit4.5
ROIC Variation across and within Industries	
63
Industries where companies build identifiable sustainable advantages,	
such as patent-protected innovations and brands,tend to generate higher returns.	
Exhibit4.6 (P74)	
Top 5 industries
1.  Software
2.  Pharmaceuticals
3.  IT services
4.  Broadcasting
5.  Household and personal
products
Persistence of Industry ROICs	
64
Persistently high	
・Household and personal product	
・Beverages	
・Pharmaceuticals	
・Software	
Persistently medium	
・Machinery	
・Auto components	
・Electrical equipment	
・Restaurants	
Cyclical	
・Chemicals	
・Semiconductors	
・Oil and gas	
・Metals and mining	
Persistently low	
・Paper and forest products	
・Railroads	
・Utilities	
・Department stores	
Trending down	
・Trucking	
・Advertising	
・Health-care-facilities	
・Automobiles	
Trending up	
・Health care equipment	
・Aerospace and defence	
Exhibit4.7 (P75)	
Most	
  industries	
  stayed	
  in	
  
the	
  same	
  group	
  over	
  the	
  
period.
Non financial Companies

:ROIC Decay Analysis	
65
High performing companies are in general remarkably capable of sustaining
a competitive advantage in their businesses and/ or finding new business where
they continue or rebuild such advantages.
Exhibit4.8 (P77)
ROIC transitions Probability,1995-2005	
66
High-ROIC companies tend to maintain their high returns on invested capital and	
low-ROIC companies tend to retain their low returns.	
Exhibit4.10 (P78)
Can	
  companies	
  keep	
  their	
  
	
  compeOOve	
  advantages	
  over	
  Ome?	
  	
67
The image of traditional sustainable competitive advantage	
The image of a succession of temporal competitive advantage	
入山章栄(2012)『世界の経営学者はいま何を考えているのか』英治出版 P71
Summary of	
  ROIC	
•  Returns	
  on	
  invested	
  capital	
  are	
  driven	
  by	
  compeOOve	
  
advantages	
  that	
  enable	
  companies	
  to	
  realize	
  price	
  premiums,	
  
cost	
  and	
  capital	
  efficiencies,	
  or	
  some	
  combinaOon	
  of	
  these.	
  
•  Industry	
  structure	
  is	
  an	
  important	
  but	
  not	
  exclusive	
  
determinant	
  of	
  ROIC.	
  
•  If	
  a	
  company	
  finds	
  a	
  formula	
  or	
  strategy	
  that	
  earns	
  an	
  
a]racOve	
  ROIC,	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  good	
  chance	
  it	
  can	
  sustain	
  that	
  
a]racOve	
  return	
  over	
  Ome	
  and	
  through	
  changing	
  economic,	
  
industry,	
  and	
  company	
  condiOons.	
68
Part1 Foundations of Value	
1.  Why Value Value?	
2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation	
3.  The Expectations Treadmill	
4.  Return on Invested Capital	
5.  Growth	
69
Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value	
70
Return on 	
investment capital	
Revenue growth	
Cash flow	
Cost of of Capital	
Value
What	
  should	
  companies	
  do	
  	
  
to	
  increase	
  sales?
Considerable variation in revenue growth	
72
Average industry revenue growth varies considerably across industries,	
and there are also big differences in growth rates among companies.	
Exhibit5.1 (P83)	
Top 5 industries
1.  Construction materials
2.  Energy equipment and services
3.  Integrated oil and gas
4.  Software
5.  Pharmaceuticals
Drivers of revenue growth	
1. Portfolio momentum(属する業界自体の成長)	
•  overall expansion in the market segments	
2. Market share performance	
•  gaining or losing share in any particular market.	
3. Mergers and acquisitions	
•  company buys or sells revenues through acquisitions or
divestment.	
73
Components of Growth	
74
Portfolio momentum and M&A explain far more of the differences in the growth	
of large companies than growth in market share does.	
Exhibit5.2 (P84)	
Total	
  growth	
  
Market	
  share	
  performance	
  
M&A	
  
Por`olio	
  momentum	
   6.6	
3.1	
0.4	
10.1	
Average growth by component
Value of Major types of Growth	
Value created	
 Type of growth	
 Rationale	
Above average	
・Create new markets through new
products	
・Convince exciting customers to buy
more of a product	
・Attract new customer to the market	
・No established competitors; divert
customer spending	
・All competitors benefit; low risk of
retaliation	
・All competitors benefit; low risk of
retaliation	
Average	
・Gain market share in fast-growing 
market	
・make bolt-on acquisitions to
accelerate product growth	
・Competitors can still grow despite
losing share,moderate risk of retaliation	
・Modest acquisition premium relative to
upside potential	
Below average	
・Gain share from rivals through
incremental innovation	
・Gain share from rivals through
product promotion and pricing	
・Make large acquisitions	
・Competitors can replicate and take
back	
・Competitors can retaliate quickly.	
・High premium to pay; most value
diverted to selling shareholders	
 75
Exhibit5.3(P86)
Variation in growth over product life cycle	
76
Sustaining growth is difficult because most product markets have natural life cycles.	
Exhibit5.4 (P90)
77
Exhibit 5.9
Unstable Growth for Industries
(P96)	
Top 5 industries 1967−1977
1.  IT services
2.  Software services
3.  Broadcasting
4.  Computers and peripherals
5.  Paper Packaging
Top 5 industries 1997−2007
1.  Integrated oil and gas
2.  Health-care equipment
3.  Energy equipment and services
4.  Movies and entertainment
Revenue growth decay analysis	
78
Growth decays very quickly;high is not sustainable for the typical company.	
Exhibit5.10 (P97)
Non financial Companies

:ROIC Decay Analysis	
79
Companies'rates of ROIC generally remain fairly stable over time.	
Exhibit4.8 (P77)
Revenue growth transition probability	
80
High growth is very difficult to sustain-much more difficult than high ROIC.	
Exhibit5.12 (P99)
Summary of growth	
•  Long term revenue growth for large companies is almost
exclusively driven by the growth of the markets they
operate in and by the acquisitions they undertake.	
•  Attracting new customers to an existing products or
persuading existing customers to buy more of it also can
create substantial value,because direct competitions in the
same market tend to benefit as well.	
•  The only way to achieve lasting high growth is to continue
introducing new products at an increasing rate-which is just
about impossible.	
81
Reference	
【コーポレートファイナンス関連】	
•  Brealey,Myers,Allen(2010)「Principles of Corporate Finance」MaGrawHill	
•  鈴木一功(2004)「企業価値評価 実践編」ダイヤモンド社	
•  伊藤邦雄(2007)「ゼミナール企業価値評価」日本経済新聞社 	
•  保田隆明(2008)「実況LIVE 企業ファイナンス入門講座―ビジネスの意思決定に役立つ財務戦略の基本」
ダイヤモンド社	
•  森生明(2001)「MBAバリュエーション」日経BP社	
•  森生明(2006)「会社の値段」ちくま新書	
•  石野雄一(2005)「道具としてのファイナンス」日本実業出版社	
•  石野雄一(2007)「ざっくり分かるファイナンス 経営センスを磨くための財務 」光文社	
•  砂川伸幸(2004)「コーポレートファイナンス入門」日経文庫	
•  中沢恵・池田和明(1998)「キャッシュフロー経営入門」日経文庫	
•  佐山 展生・山本 礼二郎(2009)「バイアウト」日本経済新聞社 	
【その他応用編】	
•  笹山 幸嗣 ・ 村岡 香奈子(2008) 「M&Aファイナンス 」金融財政事情研究会	
•  齊藤誠「金融技術の考え方・使い方―リスクと流動性の経済分析」有斐閣	
•  内藤伸浩(2003)「アセット・ファイナンス-資産金融の理論と実践」ダイヤモンド社	
•  磯崎哲也(2010)「起業のファイナンス」日本実業出版社	
82

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Valuation fundamentals and techniques in FED 2013

  • 2. 自己紹介&Ice  Break •  名前   •  所属 •  勉強会に参加したきっかけ   2
  • 3. Contents •  Part1 Foundations of Value •  Part2 Core Valuation Techniques •  Part3 Intrinsic Value and the Stock Market •  Part4 Managing for Value •  Part5 Advanced Valuations Issues •  Part6 Special Situations 3
  • 4. Part1 Foundations of Value 4th Edition 5th Edition 第1章企業価値の最大化 Why Maximize Value? 1. Why Value Value? 第2章企業価値を創造する経営者 The Value Manager 2.Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 第3章価値創造の本質 Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 3.The Expectations Treadmill 第4章株式市場は何で動くのか Do Fundamentals Really Drive the stock Market? 4.Return on Invested Capital 5.Growth 4
  • 5. Part1 Foundations of Value 1.  Why Value Value? 2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 3.  The Expectations Treadmill 4.  Return on Invested Capital 5.  Growth 5
  • 7. What is Value? •  Value is defining dimension of measurement in a market economy. •  Value is a particularly helpful measure of performance because it takes into account the long-term interests of all the stakeholders in a company,not just shareholders. •  Competition among value-focused companies also helps to ensure that capital,human capital,and natural resources are used efficiency across the economy,leading to higher living standards for everyone. 7 (P3)
  • 8. Fundamental principles of corporate finance Companies create value by investing capital to generate future cash flow at rate of return that exceed their cost of capital. (P17) 8
  • 9. Two core principles of value creation •  The combination of growth and return on invested capital(ROIC) relative to its cost is what drives value. –  Companies can sustain strong growth and high returns on invested capital only if they have a well-defined competitive advantage. •  Conservation of value –  Anything that doesn't increase cash flow doesn't create value.   –  M・M  theory 9 (P4)
  • 10. The economics and process of value creation •  the economics of value creation –  how competitive advantage enables some companies to earn higher returns on invested capital than others. •  the process of measuring value –  how to calculate return on invested capital from a company's accounting statements. 10 (P4)
  • 11. Consequences of forgetting to value value Market bubbles Many executives and investors either forgot or threw out fundamental rules of economics in the rarefied air of the Internet revolution(P6). Financial Crises Securitizaing risky home made the loans more valuable because it reduced the risk of the assets and this violates the conservation of value rule(P7). Financial Crises and excessive Using leverage to make an investment in itself creates value(P8). 11
  • 12. Benefits of focusing on long-term value •  Pursuing the creation of long-term shareholder value does not cause stake holders to suffer. •  Value-creating companies also create more jobs. •  A strong positive correlation between long-term shareholder returns and investment in research and development •  Companies that create also tend to show a greater commitment to meeting their social responsibilities. 12 (P11-P12)
  • 14. Black  Stone    -­‐King  of  Capital-­‐ •  プライベートエクイティの傘下に入ることが雇用に与える影響に関する最 も網羅的な調査として、1980年から2005年までの4500以上の投資案件を 調べた物がある。   •  そこでは、プライベートエクイティ傘下の企業では、買収直後の2年間は 一般企業と比べて雇用の削減率がやや高くなる傾向があるが、長期的 には削減した分を上回る雇用を生み出すことが明らかになった。(P412) 14 デビット・キャリー&ジョン・E・モリス(2011) 『ブラックストーン』東洋経済新報社
  • 15. 機械との競争   -­‐テクノロジーは雇用を破壊する-­‐ 15 •  技術の進歩は、すべての人の所得を自動的に押し上げる上げ潮のような ものではない。富の総量が増えたとしても、勝ち組と負け組が出来ることは ありうるし、むしろそうなることの方が多いのである。しかも負け組の方が 少ないとは限らないのだ。 •  馬車とともに姿を消した馬車用靴の職人が労働人口に占める割合は小さ かったが、今度はそうはいかない。労働人口の90%が負け組になることだ ってあり得る。(P75) エリク・ブリニョルフソン, アンドリュー・マカフィー (2013) 『機械との競争』日経BP社
  • 16. 16
  • 17. Bowing  vs  Facebook 17 The  number   of  employees Market   capitalizaOon Bowing Facebook $ 64,137MM $61,292 MM 171,700 (Dec,31, 2011) 3,200
  • 18. Part1 Foundations of Value 1.  Why Value Value? 2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 3.  The Expectations Treadmill 4.  Return on Invested Capital 5.  Growth 18
  • 19. Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value 19 Return on investment capital Revenue growth Cash flow Cost of of Capital Value
  • 20. DCF Valuation 20 Value Inc. Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 YearX Sum Revenue 1,000 1,050 1,103 1,158 1,216 ・・・ Earnings 100 105 110 116 122 ・・・ Investment (25) (26) (28) (29) (30) ・・・ Cash flow 75 79 83 87 91 ・・・ Value today 68 65 62 59 57 ・・・ 1,500 Volume Inc Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 YearX Sum Revenue 1,000 1,050 1,103 1,158 1,216 ・・・ Earnings 100 105 110 116 122 ・・・ Investment (50) (53) (55) (58) (61) ・・・ Cash flow 50 53 55 58 61 ・・・ Value today 45 44 41 40 38 ・・・ 1,000 Exhibit2.2(P19)
  • 21. Relationship of Growth,ROIC,and Cash Flow •  Growth,ROIC,and Cash flow(as represented by the investment rate)are tied together mathematically in the following relationship. 21 Investment Rate =Growth ÷ Return on Invested Capital Value Inc  :25%=5%÷20% Volume Inc :50%=5%÷10%
  • 22. Translating Growth and ROIC into value 3% 800 1,100 1,400 1,600 6% 600 1,100 1,600 2,100 9% 400 1,100 1,900 2,700 7% 9% 13% 25% ROIC 22 Growth Exhibit2.4(P21)
  • 23. Impact of higher growth and ROIC •  High-ROIC companies should focus on growth •  Low-ROIC companies should focus on improving returns before growing 23 Exhibit2.5(P24) 6%   10%   1%  higher  ROIC   1% higher  growth   High-ROIC company Typical packaged-goods company 15%   5%   1%  higher  ROIC   1% higher  growth   Moderate-ROIC company Typical retailer
  • 24. What  creates  value?   What  produces  value? 24
  • 25. Value Creation of type of Growth 25 Exhibit2.6(P25) The most important implication of this chart is the rank order. New products typically create more value for shareholders, while acquisitions typically create the least. Acquire  business   Compete  for  share  in  a  stable  market   Increase  share  in  a  growing  market   Expand  an  exsiOng  market   Introduce  new  products  to  market   1.75-2.00 0.30-0.75 0.10-0.50 -0.25-0.40 0.-0.20 Type of growth
  • 26. 世界の経営学者は   いま何を考えているのか 26 なぜ経営学者は買収額を払いすぎてしまうのか (買収プレミアム) 1)  経営者の思い上がり 2)  自社をどうしても成長させたいというあせり 3)  国家を代表している言うプライド 入山章栄(2012) 『世界の経営学者はいま何を考えているのか』 英治出版
  • 27. ConservaOon  of  Value •  Anything  that  doesn’t  increase  cash  flows  doesn’t  create   value.   •  Value  is  conserved,  or  unchanged,  when  a  company  changes   the  ownership  of  claims  to  its  cash  flows  but  doesn’t  change   the  total  available  cash  flows.   •  In  every  circumstance,  execuOves  should  focus  on  increasing   cash  flows  rather  than  finding  gimmicks  that  merely   redistribute  value  among  investors  or  make  reported  results   look  be]er.       27
  • 28. ApplicaOon •  AccounOng  policy(Chap16)   •  AcquisiOons(Chap21)   •  Corporate  por`olio  decisions(Chap19)   •  Dividend  policy(Chap23)   •  Capital  Structure(Chap23) 28
  • 29. Application for 
 the conservation of value principle •  Share repurchases   –  To  determine  whether  share  purchases  create  value,  you  must   compare  them  with  some  other  use  of  the  cahs. •  Acquisition –  acquisitions create value only when the combined cash flows of the two companies increase due to cost reductions,accelerated revenue growth,or better use of fixed and working capital •  Financial engineering –  The total cash flows received by the CDO investors cannot be more than they would receive if they directly owned the loans and securities. 29
  • 30. Cash  flows  related  to     Collateralized  Debt  ObligaOons 30 Exhibit2.8(P33)
  • 31. Risk and Value Creation •  A company's future cash flows are unknown and therefore risky. •  Risk enters into valuation both through the company's cost of capital,which is the price of risk,and in the uncertainty surrounding future cash flows. •  The cost of capital to a company equals the minimum return that investors expect to earn from investing in the company. 31 P35
  • 32. Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value 32 Return on investment capital Revenue growth Cash flow Cost of of Capital Value
  • 33. Volatility of Portfolio Return
 : Declining with Diversification 33 Market volatility Volatility of portfolio return Number of stock portfolio Total Risk 0 •  The total risk declines because companies’ cash flow are not correlated. Some will increase when others decline. •  Investors require compensation only for risks they cannot diversify.
  • 34. Terms for Valuation Net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT) the profit generateed from the company's core operations after subtracting the income taxes related to the core operations. Invested Capital the cumulative amount the business has invested in its core operations-primarily property,plant, and equipment and working capital. Net investment the increase in invested capital from one year to the next. Free Cash Flow (FCF) the cash flow generated by the core operations of the business after deducting investments in new capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC=NOPLAT/Invested Capital) the return on the company earns on each dollar invested in the business. Invested rate (IR=Net Investment/NOPLAT) the portion of NOPLAT invested back into the business. Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) the rate of return that investors expect to earn from investing in the company and therefore the appropriate discount rate for the free cash flow. Growth(g) the rate at which the company's NOPLAT and cash flow grow each year 34
  • 35. DCF approach to valuation gWACC ROIC g NOPLAT Value ROIC g NOPLATFCF ROIC g IR IRROICg IRNOPLAT IRNOPLATNOPLAT InvestmentNetNOPLATFCF gWACC FCF Value t t − ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ − = −= = ×= −= ×−= −= − = = = 1 )1( 1 )( 1 1 )(            35
  • 37. Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value 37 Return on investment capital Revenue growth Cash flow Cost of of Capital Value
  • 38. Part1 Foundations of Value 1.  Why Value Value? 2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 3.  The Expectations Treadmill 4.  Return on Invested Capital 5.  Growth 38
  • 39. What  roll  do  expectaOons  have     in  stock  market? 39
  • 40. Return to the shareholders(TRS) •  The performance of a company and that of its management are frequently measured by total returns to shareholders(TRS). •  TRS measure combines the amount shareholders gain through any increase in the share price over a given period with the sum of dividends paid to them over the period. •  Managers have to pull off herculean feats of real performance improvement to satisfy investors's expectations and continue improving TRS. –  “expectations treadmill”(期待との際限なき戦い) 40
  • 41. •  Managers have to pull off herculean feats of real performance improvement to satisfy investors's expectations and continue improving TRS.   •  この期待に応えて株主に対するリターンを向上させ続けるた めには、経営者は、英雄的な偉業ともいえる成果を挙げる必 要があるのだ。 41
  • 42. Decomposing TRS   (TradiOonal  way) TRS=% change in share price + dividend yield =% Increase in Earnings + % change in P/E + dividend yield 42 ※assuming P=E/r , we get the following equation by using z=xy , z+△z=(x+△x)+(y+△y) P+△P        = (E+△E)       + (r+△R) % change in share price =% Increase in Earnings + % change in P/E, P:Price E:Earnings r:discount rate(P/E) (P50)
  • 43. A  few  problems  with  expressing  TRS •  Manager  might  assume  that  all  forms  if  earnings  growth   create  an  equal  amount  of  value.          (ex.  AcquisiOon)   •  The  dividend  yield  can  be  increased  without  affecOng  future   earnings,  as  if  dividends  themselves  create  value.   •  The  tradiOonal  expression  if  TRS  fails  account  for  the  impact   of  financial  leverage. 43
  • 44. Break up the TRS equation into four parts   (Enhanced  way) 1.  The value generated from revenue growth net of the capital required to grow. 2.  What TRS would have been without any of the growth measured in part1 3.  Changes in shareholder's expectations about the company's performance , measured by the change in its P/E or other earnings multiple. 4.  The impact of financial leverage on TRS. 44
  • 45. Wal-Mart vs Target:   Wal-­‐Mart  ahead  in  Growth,  ROIC,  Not  TRS 45 Exhibit3.1 (P49)
  • 46. Wal-Mart vs Target:   P/E  increase  helps  Target’s  TRS 46 11   15   Target   Wal-­‐Mart   1995 18   16   Target   Wal-­‐Mart   2006 Exhibit3.2(P50) •  Relative to Wal-Mart, Target was starting from a position of low shareholder expectations. •  Target eventually sold its Mevyn’s and Marshall Field’s brands, after which it beat expectations.- thereby raising expectations of its future performance.
  • 47. Wal-Mart vs Target:
 TRS decomposition Target Wal-mart Difference Revenue growth 9 13 -4 Investment for growth -5 -3 -2 Change in margin 4 0 4 TRS from performance 8 10 -2 Zero-growth return 6 4 2 Change in P/E 5 0 5 Impact of financial leverage 5 2 3 other 0 -1 1 Sum 24 15 9 47 1995-2005,percent annualized Exhibit3.5 (P53) •  Better performance in one domain by one company was offset by better performance in another domain by the other company. •  We can conclude that the TRS differentiators for the two companies over the next several years will mostly be underlying growth and returns on capital.
  • 48. Understanding  expectaitons •  We  have  reverse  engineered  hundreds  of  companies’  share   prices  over  the  years  using  discounted  cash  flows.   •  With  the  excepOon  of  the  Internet  bubble  era,  at  least  80%  of   the  companies  have  had  performance  expectaOons  built  into   their  share  prices  that  are  in  line  with  industry  expectaOons   and  returns  on  capital.   •  The  other  20%  should  brace  themselves  for  a  significantly   faster  or  slower  ride  on  the  treadmill. 48
  • 49. Managerial Implication •  The board will take a long-term view and continue to support management's value creating priorities, even if these do not imemediatley strengthen the share price. •  The expectations treadmill is virtually impossible to escape, and we don't know any easy way to manage expectations down. 49
  • 50. Part1 Foundations of Value 1.  Why Value Value? 2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 3.  The Expectations Treadmill 4.  Return on Invested Capital 5.  Growth 50
  • 51. The  fundamental  principles    of  value  creaOon •  The  value  of  a  business  depends  on  its  return   on  invested  capital(ROIC)  and  growth. 51
  • 52. Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value 52 Return on investment capital Revenue growth Cash flow Cost of of Capital Value
  • 53. Why  do  some  companies  develop  and   sustain  much  higher  ROICs  than  others?
  • 54. Drivers of ROIC ROIC = (1− Tax rate) Price per Unit - Cost per Unit Invested Capital per Unit 54 If a company has a competitive advantage,it earns a higher ROIC,because it either charges a price premium or produces its products more efficiency.
  • 55. Definition of ROIC 
 from valuation in practice      ROIC=NOPLAT/投下資産 NOPLAT:EBITDA-EBITDAにかかる税金 投下資産:運転資本(ワーキングキャピタル)                                        +事業用有形固定資産                                        +その他(事業用)資産 55 鈴木一功(2004)「企業価値評価 実践編」ダイヤモンド社
  • 56. Five  forces 56 Threat  of   new  entry Bargaining   power  of   suppliers The  degree  of     rivalry  among   exisOng   compeOtors   Pressure  from   subsOtute   products Bargaining   power  of   buyers Because the five forces differ by industry and because companies within the same industry can pursue different strategies, there can be significant variation in ROIC across and within industries.
  • 57. Company Profitability:Industry Matters 57 The reason for this difference in the industries' performance lies mainly in differences between their competitive structures. Exhibit4.1 (P61) Consumer goods Commodities Pharmaceutical and biotech
  • 58. Sources of Competitive Advantage Price premium Innovative products Difficult-to-copy or patented products, services or technologies Quality Customers willing to pay a premium for a real or perceived difference quality over and above competing products or services. Brand Customers willing to pay a premium based on brand , even if there is no clear quality difference. Customer lock in Customers unwilling or unable to replace product or service they use with a competing product or service. Rational price discipline Lower bound on prices established by large industry leaders through price signaling or capacity management. 58 Exhibit4.2(P62)
  • 59. Sources of Competitive Advantage 59 Cost and capital efficiency Exhibit4.2(P62) Innovative business method Difficult to copy business method that contrasts with established industry practice. Unique resources Advantage resulting from inherent geological characteristics or unique access to raw Economies of scale Efficient scale or size for the relevant market Scalable product/process Ability to add customers and capacity at negligible marginal cost
  • 60. Empirical  results  of  ROIC •  The  median  ROIC  between  1963  and  2008  was  around  10%   and  remained  relaOvely  constant  thought  the  period.   •  ROICs  differ  by  industry  but  not  by  company  size.   •  There  are  large  variaOon  in  rates  of  ROIC  between  and  within   industries.   •  Rates  of  ROIC  tend  to  remain  fairly  stable-­‐  especially   compared  with  rates  of  growth.   60
  • 61. U.S-Based Nonfinancial companies:ROIC 1963-2008 61 Acquiring companies haven't been able to extract much value from their acquisitions. Exhibit4.4(P71)
  • 62. Distribution of ROIC:Shifting to Right 62 There has been a recent shift toward more companies earning very high returns on capital. (P73) Exhibit4.5
  • 63. ROIC Variation across and within Industries 63 Industries where companies build identifiable sustainable advantages, such as patent-protected innovations and brands,tend to generate higher returns. Exhibit4.6 (P74) Top 5 industries 1.  Software 2.  Pharmaceuticals 3.  IT services 4.  Broadcasting 5.  Household and personal products
  • 64. Persistence of Industry ROICs 64 Persistently high ・Household and personal product ・Beverages ・Pharmaceuticals ・Software Persistently medium ・Machinery ・Auto components ・Electrical equipment ・Restaurants Cyclical ・Chemicals ・Semiconductors ・Oil and gas ・Metals and mining Persistently low ・Paper and forest products ・Railroads ・Utilities ・Department stores Trending down ・Trucking ・Advertising ・Health-care-facilities ・Automobiles Trending up ・Health care equipment ・Aerospace and defence Exhibit4.7 (P75) Most  industries  stayed  in   the  same  group  over  the   period.
  • 65. Non financial Companies
 :ROIC Decay Analysis 65 High performing companies are in general remarkably capable of sustaining a competitive advantage in their businesses and/ or finding new business where they continue or rebuild such advantages. Exhibit4.8 (P77)
  • 66. ROIC transitions Probability,1995-2005 66 High-ROIC companies tend to maintain their high returns on invested capital and low-ROIC companies tend to retain their low returns. Exhibit4.10 (P78)
  • 67. Can  companies  keep  their    compeOOve  advantages  over  Ome?   67 The image of traditional sustainable competitive advantage The image of a succession of temporal competitive advantage 入山章栄(2012)『世界の経営学者はいま何を考えているのか』英治出版 P71
  • 68. Summary of  ROIC •  Returns  on  invested  capital  are  driven  by  compeOOve   advantages  that  enable  companies  to  realize  price  premiums,   cost  and  capital  efficiencies,  or  some  combinaOon  of  these.   •  Industry  structure  is  an  important  but  not  exclusive   determinant  of  ROIC.   •  If  a  company  finds  a  formula  or  strategy  that  earns  an   a]racOve  ROIC,  there  is  a  good  chance  it  can  sustain  that   a]racOve  return  over  Ome  and  through  changing  economic,   industry,  and  company  condiOons. 68
  • 69. Part1 Foundations of Value 1.  Why Value Value? 2.  Fundamental Principles of Value Creation 3.  The Expectations Treadmill 4.  Return on Invested Capital 5.  Growth 69
  • 70. Growth and ROIC:Drives of Value 70 Return on investment capital Revenue growth Cash flow Cost of of Capital Value
  • 71. What  should  companies  do     to  increase  sales?
  • 72. Considerable variation in revenue growth 72 Average industry revenue growth varies considerably across industries, and there are also big differences in growth rates among companies. Exhibit5.1 (P83) Top 5 industries 1.  Construction materials 2.  Energy equipment and services 3.  Integrated oil and gas 4.  Software 5.  Pharmaceuticals
  • 73. Drivers of revenue growth 1. Portfolio momentum(属する業界自体の成長) •  overall expansion in the market segments 2. Market share performance •  gaining or losing share in any particular market. 3. Mergers and acquisitions •  company buys or sells revenues through acquisitions or divestment. 73
  • 74. Components of Growth 74 Portfolio momentum and M&A explain far more of the differences in the growth of large companies than growth in market share does. Exhibit5.2 (P84) Total  growth   Market  share  performance   M&A   Por`olio  momentum   6.6 3.1 0.4 10.1 Average growth by component
  • 75. Value of Major types of Growth Value created Type of growth Rationale Above average ・Create new markets through new products ・Convince exciting customers to buy more of a product ・Attract new customer to the market ・No established competitors; divert customer spending ・All competitors benefit; low risk of retaliation ・All competitors benefit; low risk of retaliation Average ・Gain market share in fast-growing  market ・make bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate product growth ・Competitors can still grow despite losing share,moderate risk of retaliation ・Modest acquisition premium relative to upside potential Below average ・Gain share from rivals through incremental innovation ・Gain share from rivals through product promotion and pricing ・Make large acquisitions ・Competitors can replicate and take back ・Competitors can retaliate quickly. ・High premium to pay; most value diverted to selling shareholders 75 Exhibit5.3(P86)
  • 76. Variation in growth over product life cycle 76 Sustaining growth is difficult because most product markets have natural life cycles. Exhibit5.4 (P90)
  • 77. 77 Exhibit 5.9 Unstable Growth for Industries (P96) Top 5 industries 1967−1977 1.  IT services 2.  Software services 3.  Broadcasting 4.  Computers and peripherals 5.  Paper Packaging Top 5 industries 1997−2007 1.  Integrated oil and gas 2.  Health-care equipment 3.  Energy equipment and services 4.  Movies and entertainment
  • 78. Revenue growth decay analysis 78 Growth decays very quickly;high is not sustainable for the typical company. Exhibit5.10 (P97)
  • 79. Non financial Companies
 :ROIC Decay Analysis 79 Companies'rates of ROIC generally remain fairly stable over time. Exhibit4.8 (P77)
  • 80. Revenue growth transition probability 80 High growth is very difficult to sustain-much more difficult than high ROIC. Exhibit5.12 (P99)
  • 81. Summary of growth •  Long term revenue growth for large companies is almost exclusively driven by the growth of the markets they operate in and by the acquisitions they undertake. •  Attracting new customers to an existing products or persuading existing customers to buy more of it also can create substantial value,because direct competitions in the same market tend to benefit as well. •  The only way to achieve lasting high growth is to continue introducing new products at an increasing rate-which is just about impossible. 81
  • 82. Reference 【コーポレートファイナンス関連】 •  Brealey,Myers,Allen(2010)「Principles of Corporate Finance」MaGrawHill •  鈴木一功(2004)「企業価値評価 実践編」ダイヤモンド社 •  伊藤邦雄(2007)「ゼミナール企業価値評価」日本経済新聞社  •  保田隆明(2008)「実況LIVE 企業ファイナンス入門講座―ビジネスの意思決定に役立つ財務戦略の基本」 ダイヤモンド社 •  森生明(2001)「MBAバリュエーション」日経BP社 •  森生明(2006)「会社の値段」ちくま新書 •  石野雄一(2005)「道具としてのファイナンス」日本実業出版社 •  石野雄一(2007)「ざっくり分かるファイナンス 経営センスを磨くための財務 」光文社 •  砂川伸幸(2004)「コーポレートファイナンス入門」日経文庫 •  中沢恵・池田和明(1998)「キャッシュフロー経営入門」日経文庫 •  佐山 展生・山本 礼二郎(2009)「バイアウト」日本経済新聞社 【その他応用編】 •  笹山 幸嗣 ・ 村岡 香奈子(2008) 「M&Aファイナンス 」金融財政事情研究会 •  齊藤誠「金融技術の考え方・使い方―リスクと流動性の経済分析」有斐閣 •  内藤伸浩(2003)「アセット・ファイナンス-資産金融の理論と実践」ダイヤモンド社 •  磯崎哲也(2010)「起業のファイナンス」日本実業出版社 82