1. Fourth Quarter 2008
Earnings Conference Call
November 4, 2008
Safe Harbor Statement
Our commentary and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements,
including our outlook for the remainder of the year, and Emerson undertakes no obligation to update
any such statements to reflect later developments. Information on factors that could cause actual
results to vary materially from those discussed today is available in our most recent Annual Report
on Form 10-K as filed with the SEC.
Non-GAAP Measures
In this call we will discuss some non-GAAP measures
(denoted with *) in talking about our company’s
performance, and the reconciliation of those measures to
the most comparable GAAP measures is contained within
this presentation or available at our website
www.emerson.com under Investor Relations.
2. Fourth Quarter 2008 Highlights
Fourth quarter sales up 11% to $6.7 billion with increases in four out of
five business segments
Strong underlying* sales growth of 7%, led by Process Management,
–
Network Power and Industrial Automation
Emerging markets continued to benefit growth
–
Operating profit margin* improved 70 basis points to 17.5%
Earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.88, up 13%
compared to $0.78 in the prior year quarter
Operating cash flow of $1,295 million and free cash flow* of $1,042
million, up 4% and 6% respectively
Operational efficiency initiatives continue, balance sheet is strong
Trade Working Capital as a percent of sales to 15.9% from 16.2%
–
Net Debt to Net Capital ratio at 23%
–
Operating Cash Flow to Total Debt strong at 73%
–
Well-Positioned Going Into an Uncertain 2009
2
3. Emerson
Fourth Quarter Results
2007 2008
($Mil excl. EPS)
Up 11%
Sales $6,028 $6,696
Increases in 4 of 5 business segments
•
Process Mgmt. up +13%, Network Power up +19%,
•
Industrial Automation up +14%
Underlying* up 7%; FX +2 pts; Acq/Div +2 pts
•
Up 16%
Operating Profit* $1,013 $1,174
70 basis point improvement driven by cost
•
OP%* 16.8% 17.5%
containment programs, volume leverage and
favorable business mix
Up 11%
Earnings - Continuing Ops. $621 $690
Earnings% 10.3% 10.3%
Repurchased 8.6M shares for $398M in the qtr.
Dil. Avg. Shares 800.0 781.4
EPS – Continuing Ops. Up 13%
$0.78 $0.88
Discontinued Ops. - -
EPS $0.78 $0.88
Actively Managing Business Portfolio: Sale of the European
Appliance Motor & Pump Business Closed Sept. 30th, 2008
3
4. Underlying Sales Analysis
Fourth Quarter & Fiscal 2008 Results
Fiscal Year 2008
4Q 2008
United States 1% 3%
Europe 6% 3%
Asia 17% 17%
Latin America 25% 18%
Canada 14% 8%
Middle East/Africa 14% 17%
Total International 13% 10%
Underlying Sales* +7% +7%
Currency +2 pts +4 pts
Acquisitions / Divestitures +2 pts +1 pt
Consolidated Sales +11% +12%
Emerging Markets Represented 30% of
Total Sales in 2008
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5. Emerson
Fourth Quarter Detail
($Mil) 2007 2008
Up 10%
Gross Profit $2,248 $2,474 from cost
Improvement
GP% 37.3% 37.0% containment programs and
volume leverage
SG&A% 20.5% 19.5% Lower incentive share expense
Up 16%
Operating Profit* $1,013 $1,174
OP%* 16.8% 17.5%
$22M increase relating to
- Other Deductions, Net $60 $133
restructuring, $22M charge related
to the appliance control business
- Interest Expense, Net $50 $41
Up 11%
Pretax Earnings $903 $1,000
Earnings% 15.0% 14.9%
- Taxes $282 $310
Full year rate of 31.7% in
- Tax Rate 31.2% 31.0%
line with prior guidance
5
6. Emerson’s Restructuring is Pay As We Go –
Continuous Process
Emerson restructures continuously throughout the business cycle
Ongoing restructuring efforts support geographic expansion and best
cost country programs to improve profitability
Restructuring actions accelerated throughout 2008, as 2009 economy
looked tougher
2007–2008 1 2003-2008 1
Quarterly Restructuring Expense Restructuring Expense
(U.S. $ Millions)
$50 (U.S. $ Millions)
$45
$160 $141
$40 $129
$140
$110
$120
$98
$30 $25 $100 $84 $83
$24 $23
$20 $80
$18
$20 $16 $60
$10 $40
$10
$20
$0
$0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2008
1 Includes discontinued operations
6
7. Fourth Quarter Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
($Mil) 2007 2008
Up 4% in 4th Qtr
Operating Cash Flow $1,242 $1,295
Capital Expenditures ($261) ($253)
Up 6% in 4th Qtr
Free Cash Flow* $981 $1,042 151% FCF/Net Earnings* conversion
in Q4
Strong Balance Sheet
Cash Flow/Total Debt 79.9% 72.9%
Inventories $2,227 $2,348
Execution on working
Receivables $4,260 $4,618
capital initiatives drives
Payables ($2,501) ($2,699) improvement in the ratio
Trade WC $3,986 $4,267
TWC % to sales 16.2% 15.9%
Strong Cash Flow and Strong Balance Sheet
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8. Liquidity Position Remains Strong and Flexible
Emerson has had continuous access to the commercial paper markets
High short-term credit rating (A1/P1)
Able to place paper with 30-day duration or longer at normal Emerson
rates
Liquidity
Emerson has a $2.8B backup credit line expiring April 2011 that has never
been drawn against
Cash available throughout world
(U.S. $ Millions)
9/30/08 (U.S. $ Millions)
$2,000
9/30/08
$1,777M
750
Floating Fixed
90% 80% 599
$1,500
73%
80% $1,221M 467 500
500
70% 62% Other $89M
407
55% 53%
60% $1,000 Current
Maturities
50% 42% 256 250 251 252
251 251 250
$467M
250
40%
30% $500
Commercial
20% 30
Paper
0
$665M
10% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2032
0% $0
Short-Term Debt Cash
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Term Debt Maturities
Operating Cash Flow to Debt S-T Debt vs. Cash
8
9. Business Segment Earnings
Fourth Quarter Results
($Mil) 2007 2008
Up 6%
Business Segment EBIT* $1,023 $1,086
by $22M restructuring
Impacted
Margin 16.6% 15.8% increase, $22M appliance control
business impairment charge and
dilutive impact of acquisitions
Up $6 million
Diff. In Accounting Methods $54 $60
Down $19 million
Corporate & Other ($124) ($105)
Lower incentive share expense
Down $9 million, lower rates
Interest Expense, Net ($50) ($41)
and strong cash generation
Up 11%
Pretax Earnings $903 $1,000
15.0% 14.9%
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10. Process Management
Fourth Quarter Results
($Mil) 2007 2008
Sales $1,665 $1,888 Up 13%
Underlying* +12%; FX +2 pts; Div/Acq. -1 pt.
–
U.S. up 9%, Asia up 23%, Europe up 8%,
•
Middle East/Africa up 5%
Strength across the segment
–
EBIT $341 $416 Up 22%
Margin 20.5% 22.0% Cost reduction programs and sales volume
–
leverage drove margin improvement
Restructuring $7 $4
Continued investment in new technologies
–
EBIT Excl. Rest.* $348 $420
and global expansion
Margin* 20.9% 22.2%
Process Management delivered an exceptional year—sales up 17%
to $6.7B and EBIT up 23%
Have not seen increased levels of project cancellations
9/30/08 Backlog increased 14% to $2.9B over 9/30/07
Longer Cycle Projects Provide Favorable Business
Outlook As We Enter Fiscal Year 2009
10
11. Industrial Automation
Fourth Quarter Results
($Mil) 2007 2008
Up 14%
Sales $1,123 $1,280
Underlying* up 9%; FX +5 pts
–
U.S. up 11%, Europe up 4%, Asia up 22%
•
Strong sales performance in the power
–
generating alternator, fluid automation and
materials joining businesses
Up 6%
EBIT $187 $199
Margin 16.7% 15.6% Margin down 110 basis points
–
Sales volume leverage and pricing more
–
Restructuring $3 $8
than offset by material inflation
EBIT Excl. Rest.* $190 $207 Increased level of restructuring
–
Margin* 17.0% 16.2%
Fifth consecutive year of double-digit sales increases
Another strong year of underlying* sales growth, up 7% in fiscal year 2008
9/30/08 Backlog increased 27% to $760M over 9/30/07
2009 Demand Expected to Slow Due to Slowing Global
Gross Fixed Investment and Tougher Comparisons
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12. Network Power
Fourth Quarter Results
($Mil) 2007 2008
Up 19%
Sales $1,438 $1,714
Underlying* up 9%; Acq +8 pts; FX +2 pts
–
U.S. flat, Asia up 19%, Europe up 2%
•
Strong growth across the power systems
–
businesses
Up 6%
EBIT $204 $215
Margin 14.2% 12.6% Margin down 160 basis points
–
Acquisitions had dilutive impact of approx.
–
Restructuring $9 $12 150 basis points
EBIT Excl. Rest.* $213 $227
Margin* 14.8% 13.3%
Continued expansion of served market through strategic acquisitions
such as Aperture
New Emerson data center will feature the latest breakthrough technologies
in energy efficiency and reliability from Emerson Network Power
9/30/08 Backlog increased 13% to $1.2B over 9/30/07
Moderating Demand Expected as Global Gross Fixed
Investment Weakens as 2009 Progresses
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13. Climate Technologies
Fourth Quarter Results
($Mil) 2007 2008
Up 8%
Sales $938 $1,013
Underlying* up 5%; FX +3 pts
–
U.S. up 3%, Europe up 13%, Asia down 3%
•
Europe growth driven by the increase in
–
heat pump compressor sales
Up 3%
EBIT $133 $138
Margin 14.2% 13.6% Margin down 60 basis points
–
Price increases more than offset by
–
Restructuring $0 $12
material inflation
EBIT Excl. Rest.* $133 $150
Increased restructuring ahead of a
–
Margin* 14.2% 14.8%
challenging 2009
Our technology and industry leadership will provide continued
opportunities as the world demands energy responsible solutions
Geographic diversity of business continues to improve in 2008
with 45% of FY2008 sales outside the U.S.
Weak Residential Markets Expected to
Continue Throughout 2009
13
14. Appliance and Tools
Fourth Quarter Results
($Mil) 2007 2008
Down 4%
Sales $1,013 $975
Underlying* down 3%; Divestiture -2 pts; FX +1 pt
–
• U.S. down 6%, Europe down 4%, Asia up
26%
Down 25%
EBIT $158 $118
Margin 15.6% 12.1% Margin decrease of 350 basis points
–
$22M charge in appliance control business had a
–
Restructuring $2 $7 dilutive impact of approx. 230 basis points
EBIT Excl. Rest.* $160 $125 Cost reductions programs and pricing more than
–
offset by material inflation and volume deleverage
Margin* 15.9% 12.8%
Improved mix of businesses in Appliance and Tools segment through
divestitures and restructuring of businesses
Excluding impact of the charges related to the appliance control
business, EBIT margins expanded in 2008 in a difficult market environment
Market Conditions Will Remain Very Challenging--
No Consumer or Residential Market Recovery
Expected in 2009
14
15. Emerson
Fiscal Year 2008 Results
2007 2008
($Mil excl. EPS)
Up 12%
Sales $22,131 $24,807
Underlying* up 7%, Emerging Markets 30%
•
of total sales, International 54% of total sales
Up 17%
Operating Profit* $3,496 $4,082
Volume leverage and cost reductions drive
•
OP%* 15.8% 16.5%
margin improvement
Up 17%, fifth year of double-digit
EPS – Continuing Ops.
$2.65 $3.11
increase
Up 15%
Reported EPS $2.66 $3.06
Up 14%, Dec. dividend increased 10%
Dividend per Share $1.05 $1.20
Up 9%, $2.1B (63%) of cash flow returned to
Operating Cash Flow $3,016 $3,293
shareholders via dividends and repurchases
Record high ROTC, target remains 17% -
Return on Total Capital 20.1% 21.8%
22% depending on acquisition activity
Strongly Positioned to Outperform Core Markets as
We Enter a Challenging 2009
15
16. Fiscal Year 2009 Guidance: Very Uncertain and
Challenging Global Economics in 2009
Delta
2007-08 2008 2009 Forecast (11/4/08)
Sales +12% $24.8B $23.5 to $25.5B
16.0 – 16.6%
Operating Margin* +70 basis 16.5%
points
EPS (continuing operations) +17% $3.11 $2.80 to $3.20
Operating Cash Flow 9% $3.3B $3.3B to $3.5B
Capital Expenditures 5% $714M $680 - $725M
Assumptions: Underlying* sales growth: -4% to +4%
Gross Fixed Investment (GFI)
Currency Unfavorable: ~$1.1B (-5%)
2008-2009 to USD$ exchange rate: ~1.28
–Euro
US: Residential (15%) to (20%) Assumed future and completed
US: Non-residential (3%) to (5%) acquisitions +4%
Europe (1%) to 2%
Japan (1%) to 1% Restructuring: $125 to $150M
China 10% to 12%
India 8% to 12% Pension Expense: approx. neutral;
Latin America 5% to 7% cash funding up to $200M
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17. Summary
Emerson delivered an outstanding fiscal year 2008, and our
businesses and financial position remain very strong as we finished
this record year
Emerson is well positioned as we move into an uncertain fiscal year
2009
Strong global footprint
–
– International sales 54% of total business
– Emerging markets 30% of total business
Good mix of businesses – we have continued to actively manage the
–
portfolio
Financial strength to invest internally and do acquisitions where
–
appropriate
The Global Management Team is Prepared for an
Uncertain and Declining Global Economy
17
18. Emerson Business Summary
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial
Measures
Fiscal 2008 Operating Profit FY 2007 FY 2008 % Change
Underlying Sales * 7% Net Sales $ 22,131 $ 24,807 12%
Foreign Currency Translation 4 pts
Cost of Sales 14,066 15,668
Acquisitions/Divestitures 1 pt
SG&A Expense 4,569 5,057
Net Sales 12%
Operating Profit * 3,496 4,082 17%
O.P. % * 15.8% 16.5%
Forecasted
Fiscal 2009 Other Deductions, Net 175 303
Underlying Sales * (4) to 4% Interest Expense, Net 228 188
Foreign Currency Translation (5) pts
Pretax Earnings $ 3,093 $ 3,591 16%
Assumed Future and Completed Acquisitions 4 pts
Earnings % 14.0% 14.5%
Net Sales (5) to 3%
4Q 2008 Cash Flow 4Q 2008
Industrial Automation Fiscal 2008
Operating Cash Flow $ 1,295
Underlying Sales * 7%
Capital Expenditures (253)
Foreign Currency Translation 7 pts
Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) 1,042
Net Sales 14%
Net Earnings 688
Forecasted
% Net Earnings
Fiscal 2009
Operating Cash Flow 188%
Operating Profit* ~$3,765-$4,225
Capital Expenditures (37%)
% Sales* 16.0%-16.6%
Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) 151%
Interest Expense and
Other Deductions, Net ~$ 600
Pretax Earnings ~$3,165-$3,625
% Sales 13.5%-14.2%
This information reconciles non-GAAP measures with the most directly comparable
GAAP measure ($M)
18