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U.S. Mortgage Insurance
Update
Kevin Schneider
President & CEO
U.S. Mortgage Insurance

September 25, 2008

©2008 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “expects,”
“anticipates,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “will,” or words of similar meaning and
include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for the company’s future business and
financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are
difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic,
business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors, including those discussed in the Appendix and
in the risk factors section of the company’s Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 28, 2008. The company
undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new
information, future developments or otherwise.



All financial data as of 6/30/08 unless otherwise noted. For additional information, please see Genworth’s
Fourth Quarter of 2007 and Second Quarter of 2008 earnings releases and financial supplements, posted
at www.genworth.com.


      This presentation should be used in conjunction with the accompanying audio or call transcript.




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update          September 25, 2008          1
U.S. MI – Call Objectives
Market Context on Economic Trends

Factors Impacting Portfolio Performance

Portfolio Loss Performance Drivers

Capital Requirements Under Various Economic Scenarios

Our Focus On Managing Through This Period

Initial Thoughts On Legislative Changes




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008   2
Economic Trends                                                                  National
                                                                                  Unemployment: 6.1%
                                                                                  Peak-to-Date (PTD) HPA: (10)%
                                                                                  Forecasted Peak-to-Trough (PTT) HPA: (20)%
              NV
Unemp:                     7.1%
PTD HPA:                 (27.1)%

              CA
Unemp:                     7.7%
PTD HPA:                (28.1)%




                                        AZ
                       Unemp:                       5.6%
                       PTD HPA:                  (23.3)%
                                                                                                        FL
                                                                                                 Unemp:             6.5%
                                                                                                 PTD HPA:         (21.7)%
  Source: State Unemployment Rate as of Aug. ’08 per Bureau of Labor Statistics
  HPA: NAR’s Existing Single-Family Home Prices
  NAR HPA Baseline Forecast: Economy.com


 U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                            September 25, 2008                3
Liquidity Trends
 Spread                                                                               Mortgage Quarterly Originations
                                                                                       800
                                                                                               755                     730
                                                                            254                        720
                                                                                                               680
                                                                            Aug
                                                              218 218                                                          570
                                                                                                                                               481
                                                                                                                                       451             430
                                                           189
                171
                      167
                                                     171
      155 155
                            157 157 155
     142                                   147 147

                   4Q’05                  4Q’06            4Q’07    2Q’08              2Q'06   3Q'06   4Q'06   1Q'07   2Q'07   3Q'07   4Q'07   1Q'08   2Q'08




Reduced Refinancing Opportunities … Less Opportunity to Cure
Fewer Homebuyers Entering Market … Slower Depletion of
Housing Inventory
Stricter Lender Underwriting … Impacting Originations

Spread Is 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage v 10 Year Treasury
Source: Spread MBA, Fed
Source: Mortgage Originations Inside Mortgage Finance


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                                   September 25, 2008                4
Primary Risk In Force
                                       $36B


                                                                             What We Avoided
                                                                                  – Sub-Prime Bulk
                                                                                  – Second Liens
     Flow                               96%
                                                                             What We Did
                                                                              – Flow Focused
                                                                                  – 93% Fixed Rate
                                                                                  – Underweighted California
                                                                                  – Low Alt-A ~4%

     Bulk                            4%
                                  Q2’08 RIF
Alt-A Percentage Does Not Include Loans With Reduced Or Different Documentation That Met Specifications Of GSE Underwriting Systems With Historical And
Expected Delinquency Rates Consistent With Standard Documentation Loans.


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                            September 25, 2008                      5
Exposure & Severity Definitions
                                 = Lesser of “Maximum Exposure” or “Loss on Property Sale”
 Claim Payment

                                    (Unpaid Principal Balance + Claimable Expenses) x Coverage %
                                         Claimable Expenses                 Mortgage Insurance Coverage
                                          Accrued Interest (Typically                       Coverage
                                                                            Loan to Value
 Maximum Exposure                           65% of Total Claimable)
                                                                               100%           35%
                                          Legal Fees
                                                                                 95%           30%
                                          Property Taxes
                                                                                 90%           25%
                                          Hazard Insurance, etc

                                       Property Sale Proceeds
                                         - Unpaid Principal Balance
 Loss On Sale                            - Claimable Expenses
                                         - Sales Costs
                                       Loss On Property Sale

                                                Claim Payment
  Severity
                             Coverage Percent x Unpaid Principal Balance (MI Coverage Amount)



U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                September 25, 2008        6
Flow & Bulk Coverage Comparison
 Flow                                                                       Bulk


                                                                                              Originator / Investor

                                                                                                    Bulk MI (3%)
               Originator / Investor                                                           Investor Deductible (1%)
                                                                67% LTV
                                                                                                Borrower Equity or
                  Primary MI (25%)
                                                                                                    Primary MI
                                                                                                       (20 – 33%)
               Borrower Equity (10%)
                                                               100% LTV

Loan Level Coverage                                                         Pool Coverage
1st Loss Position After Borrower On                                         Bulk Covers After Equity, Any
Each Loan                                                                   Primary MI, and Investor Deductible
Exposure Capped By Coverage And                                             Exposure Capped By Stop Loss
Captive Reinsurance
The Charts Above Are Offered To Illustrate Typical Insurance Arrangements For The Flow And Bulk Business. In Practice, There Is Some Variation
From These Examples. Captive Reinsurance Arrangements Apply To Approximately 60% Of Genworth's Flow Risk In Force As Of Q2 2008.

U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                        September 25, 2008                  7
Strong Relative Performance
   Primary Delinquency Rates


                                                                                Industry




                                                                                Genworth




 Industry Represents MGIC, PMI, UGI, ORI and TRIAD Based on MICA Reports.

U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                    September 25, 2008        8
Flow Drivers - Geography
                            $34.7B
                                             16%

     Other
                                                               Magnified Impact In 4 States
                                                               Driven By Significant Home Price
                                 82%
                                                               Declines & Product Concentration
                                                                – Sand States ~(25)% HPA
                                             84%
                                                                – Other States ~(6)% HPA
     Sand
     States:
     FL, CA,                     18%
     AZ, NV
                             % of RIF   2Q'08 Change In
                                         Loss Reserves




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update            September 25, 2008         9
Flow Drivers - Products
                        $34.7B
     A-Minus                6%                                Performance
                                         10%
                            4%
     Alt-A
                                                              A-Minus & Alt-A Weak
                           20%           24%
     100 LTV
                                                               – Reduced Documentation
                                                               – Relaxed Lender Underwriting
                                         18%
                                                              100 LTV In Line With RIF

                           70%
     Core
                                         48%




                         % of RIF   2Q'08 Change In
                                     Loss Reserves




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update           September 25, 2008          10
Flow Drivers - Vintages
                                                              Flow 2005-2007 Books:
                        $34.7B
                                         5%                    – Flat To Negative Home price
            2008           21%                                   Appreciation … Lower Refinancing
                                                                 Options Impacting Cure Rates
                                         48%                   – Remaining Core: Sub Performance
            2007
                           31%                                   Primarily Driven By Sand States
                                                              Flow 2008 Book:
            2006                                               – ’07 Special Product Overhang
                           14%
                                                               – Continued Geographic Weakness In
                                         31%
            2005           11%
                                                                 The Sand States
                                                               – Substantial Collateral Improvement
                           23%           13%
2004 and Prior                                                   From New Guidelines
                                          3%
                         % of RIF   2Q'08 Change In
                                     Loss Reserves




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update           September 25, 2008         11
Delinquency Development
 Delinquency Counts                                                   Loss Reserves
 (000’s)                                                              ($MM)


                                                       58.3
                                                                                                  Claims                  $973
    46.9
                                                                                                   Paid
                                                                                          Delq               Cures
                                                                         $661
                                                                                          Aging                 &
                                                                                  New
                Claims
                                                                                                           Rescissions
                                                                                  Delqs
                 Paid
                             Cures       New
                                &        Delqs
                           Rescissions
  3/31/08                                            6/30/08            3/31/08                                          6/30/08




    Loss Reserves Primarily Driven By New Delinquencies And Aging
    Of Delinquencies
    Cures & Rescissions Impacting New Delinquency Build-up
    Loan Workouts Impacting Claim Amount


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                   September 25, 2008               12
Geographic And Loan Balance Influence
 Average Loan Balance                                         Average Loan Balance
  ($000’s)                                                    ($000’s)
                                                                                                              169
   Regions                 2006   2007   1H2008                                                164
   Southeast                143   155        159
                                                                                 146
   South Central            133   147        152
   Northeast                148   165        173
   North Central            140   149        154                                 2006          2007         1H2008
   Pacific                  216   268        273
   Great Lakes              118   122        124
                                                              Average Claim Payments
   Plains                   111   121        126
                                                              ($000’s)
   Mid-Atlantic             171   199        207                                                               43
                                                                                                35
   New England              194   210        215
                                                                                  28
   Total                    146   164        169


                                                                                 2006          2007         1H2008
                                                              Based on Primary (Flow and Bulk) Insurance In Force


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update           September 25, 2008                 13
Severity Profile
Factors Impacting Severity                                              Genworth Severity By Region
                                                                                                    2007 2Q’08 % Flow RIF
                                                                        Regions              2006
Claim Factors                                                                                                    2Q’08
   – Claimable Expense                                                                                            24%
                                                                        Southeast            92%    95%    102%
                                                                                                                  17%
                                                                        South Central        88%    93%    98%
   – Lower Home Prices
                                                                                                                  13%
                                                                        Northeast            104%   100%   107%
Offsetting Factors                                                                                                12%
                                                                        North Central        96%    98%    101%
   – Borrower Equity                                                                                              11%
                                                                        Pacific              75%    89%    102%
                                                                                                                   8%
                                                                        Great Lakes          107%   109%   110%
   – Total Home Price Appreciation
                                                                                                                   6%
                                                                        Plains               93%    96%    100%
   – Coverage Level                                                                                                5%
                                                                        Mid-Atlantic         88%    93%    101%
Regional Variation                                                                                                 4%
                                                                        New England          90%    91%    97%

                                                                        Flow Portfolio
                                                                                                                  100%
                                                                        Severity             96%    99%    103%




   Severity Based on Simple Average of Claim Payment Experience.


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                          September 25, 2008              14
Captive Reinsurance Protects Downside
 40% Cede Excess Loss Example                                        Captives Absorb More Losses
   Premiums              Losses                                                                                               110
                                                                    Quarterly Captive Benefit
                                                                    ($MM)
                                  Remaining
       Lender            GNW      Losses
                 40%


                 60%
                                  2nd Loss
                        Lender
                                                                       2007 Book
        GNW                       (4-14 Claims Layer)
                                                                                                                 19
                                                                       2006 Book
                                                                                                   1
                                  1st Loss (0-4 Claims Layer)
                         GNW
                                                                       2005 Book
                                                                                             4Q’07            1Q’08           2Q’08
 ~ 2/3 Of Genworth Captives                                            Funding Adequacy
                                                                       Captive Loss Tier Exposure
 60% Flow Book With Captives
 “Book Year” Basis By Lender                             See Appendix Page 27 For Additional Detail.
                                                         Trust Balances Impacted By Future Premiums Received, Payment Of Claims And Dividends.
 $948MM In Captive Trusts                                Captive Reinsurance Trust Set Up For Each Lender; Each Trust Balance Secures That
                                                         Lender’s Risk Only.


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                 September 25, 2008                   15
Influences On Capital & Loss Scenarios
                                 Historic                   New Mkt. Dynamics
 Traditional Indicators
 Unemployment                    Correlated With            Recession Pressure
 Rates                           Delinquencies              Liquidity
                                                            Consumer Behavior
 Home Price                      Correlated With
 Appreciation                    Claims                     Alternative Products
                                                            Gov’t Initiatives




 Risk To Capital
 Statutory Levels 25:1
 Rating Agencies Differentiate View Based On Risk Profile




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update    September 25, 2008   16
Capital Scenarios
 ($B)

                                  $2.2
 Capital
 December ’09                                                     $2.1
                                                                                         $2.0
 AA Capital
 Estimate                         $2.0                            $2.0                   $2.0
 Risk To Cap.                    15-17:1                         17-18:1               18-19:1
 Add’l Cap.
                                 $250MM                     $300MM                    $400MM
 Projects
                            Base                       Stress                   Severe
Assumptions
HPA1
                            20% Decline, Q2 ’09       29% Decline, Q4 ’09       33% Decline, Q3 ’10
(Peak To Trough)
Unemployment1               Peaks in ’09 at 6.5%      Peaks In Q4 ’09 –         Peaks at 9.8% In Q2 ‘10
                                                      Q1 ’10 at 8.3%
                            Returns in 3Q ’09         Returns in Q1 ’10         Returns in Q4 ’10
Market Liquidity
1   Source: Economy.com

U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update              September 25, 2008             17
Performance Management
Proactive Portfolio Monitoring & Actions To Carve Out Sub-
Performing Buckets
Rigorous Back-Testing Of Product And Geographic Changes
Forward Looking Declining Market Policy Based On Expected Home
Price Declines And Market Conditions




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008   18
Product Actions Taking Effect
 Product Exits/Guidelines Moves                                 Price Increase
 Alt-A                                                          20%+ Price Increase In Gross
                                                                Average Rate
 A-Minus
                                                                Average Captive Cede
 95%+ LTV
                                                                Decreasing
 Interest Only
                                                                Increases Net Premium By 30%



 Flow New Insurance Written Product Mix
                                                                                 1%
                                                                   2%                    1%
                                                          7%
                        Core 100             13%          1%
                                    25%      1%
                                             4%
                            Alt A   5%
                                    11%
                         A-Minus
                                                                                99%      99%
                                                                   98%
                                                         92%
                             Core            82%
                                    59%



                                    2007   1Q'08        2Q'08    3Q'08E        4Q'08E   2009E


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update             September 25, 2008             19
Address Geographic Risk Trends
                                                                               Total U.S.
                                                                               371 MSAs




        California
        26 MSAs


                                                                     Florida
                                                                    22 MSAs


 Geographic Trends                                    Ineligible in Declining Markets
 Peak-to-Date Decline In The Sand                     LTV > 90%
 States of 25.1%                                      FICO < 720 In The Sand States
 146 MSAs Identified Under Policy …                   FICO < 680 In Other Declining States
 57 In The Sand States, 89 In 25 Other
                                                      Cash Out Refinance
 States

U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008          20
Active Portfolio Management
                                                                  Addressing Loss Development
Mitigation Savings

                                                                  Tripled Dedicated Resources
       80
                                                                  Expanded Fraud Targeting On High
                     Workouts
                                                                  Risk Channels & Portfolio Segments
       60            Investigations
                                                                  Optimizing Loss Mitigation Workflow
$ MM




                                                                  By Risk Type
       40


                                                                  Accelerating Servicer/Realtor Driven
       20
                                                                  Workouts Via Expert Training
                                                                  Programs
        0
            3Q '07     4Q '07     1Q '08   2Q '08




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update               September 25, 2008           21
Creating Capital Flexibility
 Claims Paying Resources                              In Force Capital Management
                                                      Shift High Capital Charge Assets
 ($B)
                       $3.4
                                                      International Reinsurance Changes

                 Statutory
                Contingency
                                                      Funding New Business Growth
                 Reserves
                    2.1                               Reinsurance

            Statutory Surplus
                   0.4
                                                      Other Opportunities
              Captive Trusts
                   0.9
                                                      Venture Structures
                      6/30/08

U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008          22
Impact Of Legislative Changes
 GSE Reform                                                MI Impact
                                                              +
 New Regulator With Strong Oversight

 Strong Product/Programs Approval                             +
                                                              +
 Increased Loan Limits


 FHA Rescue / Modernization
                                                              +
 FHA Insures Refis … Lender Write-Downs

 Workouts of Delinquent MI Loans                              +
 Increased Loan Limits

                                                              +
 One-Year Moratorium on Risk Based Pricing



U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008   23
Emerging Legislation
 GSE Conservatorship                                       MI Impact
                                                              +
 Guarantee Business the Priority

 Secured Lending Credit Facility                              +
                                                              +
 Treasury Program to Buy GSE MBS



Troubled Asset Relief Program
                                                              +
Mortgage Market Restoration/Liquidity




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008   24
Positioning The Industry For The Future
 Industry Dynamics – 2003-2007                        Business Model Shift
                                                      99% Core Product
Mortgage Insurers
  40% XOL Lender Captives                             20%+ Core Flow Price Increase
  High Percentage of Alt. Products
                                                      25% XOL Max on Captives
  Stacked Risk Factors
                                                      Underwriting & Regulatory
Lenders                                               Improvements
  Loosened Underwriting
                                                      Broaden Consumer Proposition
  Grew Alternative Products
Investors
  MBS Pricing Not Reflecting Risk


                                                                 15 - 20% ROE
                                                                    Target


U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008         25
Appendix




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update   September 25, 2008   26
Captive Reinsurance - Disclosure
   Aggregate Book Year Analysis Provided to Illustrate Directional Progression Toward Captive Attachment 1



                                                                                                                                                March 31, 2008                                      December 31, 2007
                                                                                        June 30, 2008

                                                                                                                 Captive                         Ever to Date          Captive                         Ever to Date     Captive
                       Original Book          Progression to         Current RIF      Ever to Date Incurred      Benefit      Current RIF      Incurred Losses         Benefit        Current RIF    Incurred Losses    Benefit
   Book Year 2            RIF ($B)           Attachment Point           ($B)             Losses ($MM)            ($MM)           ($B)               ($MM)              ($MM)             ($B)             ($MM)         ($MM)

   2005                                            0-50%                 $0.4                  $10                                 $0.5               $10                                $0.8              $16
   2005                                           50-75%                  0.4                   22                                  1.6                72                                 1.5               56
   2005                                           75-99%                  1.1                   72                                  0.2                11                                 0.4               15
   2005                                           Attached                0.6                   44                                  0.3                20                                  -                 2
   2005 Total                $4.4                                        $2.5                  $148                 $6             $2.6               $113                $1             $2.7              $89            $-

   2006                                            0-50%                 $0.2                   $2                                 $0.5               $11                                $0.7              $10
   2006                                           50-75%                  0.4                   17                                  0.3                 8                                 1.8               55
   2006                                           75-99%                  0.4                   26                                  0.5                23                                 0.8               31
   2006                                           Attached                2.1                   185                                 2.0                113                                0.1                5
   2006 Total                $4.2                                        $3.1                  $230                 61             $3.3               $155                17             $3.4             $101            1

   2007                                            0-50%                 $1.0                   $17                                $4.3                $77                               $6.9              $56
   2007                                           50-75%                  1.0                    33                                 1.0                 23                                -                 -
   2007                                           75-99%                  2.2                    77                                 0.8                 25                                -                 -
   2007                                           Attached                2.2                   128                                 0.5                 22                                -                 -
   2007 Total                $6.9                                        $6.4                  $255                 43             $6.6               $147                 1             $6.9              $56             -


   Captive Benefit In Quarter ($MM)                                                                                $110                                                   $19                                             $1




   1
    Data presented in aggregate for all trusts. Actual trust attachment and exit points will vary by individual lender contract. For purposes of this illustration, incurred losses
   equals change in reserves plus paid claims. The information presented excludes quota share captive reinsurance data. Progress toward captive attachment is
   determined at a lender level for each book year by dividing ever to date incurred losses by original RIF for that book year.
   2
       Book year figures may include loans from additional periods pursuant to reinsurance agreement terms and conditions.




U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                                                      September 25, 2008                                          27
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements

This presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking
statements may be identified by words such as “expects,” “intends,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “will,” or words of similar meaning
and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for our future business and financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based
on management’s current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to
predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors and
risks, including the following:

• Risks relating to our businesses, including interest rate fluctuations, downturns and volatility in equity and credit markets, downgrades in our financial
strength and credit ratings, insufficiency of reserves, legal constraints on dividend distributions by subsidiaries, intense competition, availability and adequacy
of reinsurance, defaults by counterparties, legal or regulatory investigations or actions, political or economic instability affecting outsourcing arrangements,
regulatory restrictions on our operations and changes in applicable laws and regulations, the failure or any compromise of the security of our computer
systems, and the occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a disease pandemic;

• Risks relating to our U.S. Mortgage Insurance segment, including increases in mortgage insurance delinquency rates or severity of defaults, deterioration in
economic conditions or a decline in home price appreciation, the influence of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and a small number of large mortgage lenders and
investors, decreases in the volume of high loan-to-value mortgage originations or increases in mortgage insurance cancellations, increases in the use of
alternatives to private mortgage insurance (such as simultaneous second mortgages) and reductions by lenders in the level of coverage they select, increases
in the use of reinsurance with reinsurance companies affiliated with our mortgage lending customers, increased competition with government-owned and
government-sponsored entities offering mortgage insurance, changes in regulations, legal actions under Real Estate Settlement Practices Act, and potential
liabilities in connection with our U.S. contract underwriting services; and

• Other risks, including the possibility that in certain circumstances we will be obligated to make payments to General Electric (GE) under our tax matters
agreement even if our corresponding tax savings are never realized and payments could be accelerated in the event of certain changes in control, and
provisions of our certificate of incorporation and by-laws and our tax matters agreement with GE may discourage takeover attempts and business combinations
that stockholders might consider in their best interests.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.




  U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update                             September 25, 2008                      28

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GNW US%20MI%20Insurance%20Update%20080925%20(2)

  • 1. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update Kevin Schneider President & CEO U.S. Mortgage Insurance September 25, 2008 ©2008 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “will,” or words of similar meaning and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for the company’s future business and financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors, including those discussed in the Appendix and in the risk factors section of the company’s Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 28, 2008. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise. All financial data as of 6/30/08 unless otherwise noted. For additional information, please see Genworth’s Fourth Quarter of 2007 and Second Quarter of 2008 earnings releases and financial supplements, posted at www.genworth.com. This presentation should be used in conjunction with the accompanying audio or call transcript. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 1
  • 3. U.S. MI – Call Objectives Market Context on Economic Trends Factors Impacting Portfolio Performance Portfolio Loss Performance Drivers Capital Requirements Under Various Economic Scenarios Our Focus On Managing Through This Period Initial Thoughts On Legislative Changes U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 2
  • 4. Economic Trends National Unemployment: 6.1% Peak-to-Date (PTD) HPA: (10)% Forecasted Peak-to-Trough (PTT) HPA: (20)% NV Unemp: 7.1% PTD HPA: (27.1)% CA Unemp: 7.7% PTD HPA: (28.1)% AZ Unemp: 5.6% PTD HPA: (23.3)% FL Unemp: 6.5% PTD HPA: (21.7)% Source: State Unemployment Rate as of Aug. ’08 per Bureau of Labor Statistics HPA: NAR’s Existing Single-Family Home Prices NAR HPA Baseline Forecast: Economy.com U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 3
  • 5. Liquidity Trends Spread Mortgage Quarterly Originations 800 755 730 254 720 680 Aug 218 218 570 481 451 430 189 171 167 171 155 155 157 157 155 142 147 147 4Q’05 4Q’06 4Q’07 2Q’08 2Q'06 3Q'06 4Q'06 1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 Reduced Refinancing Opportunities … Less Opportunity to Cure Fewer Homebuyers Entering Market … Slower Depletion of Housing Inventory Stricter Lender Underwriting … Impacting Originations Spread Is 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage v 10 Year Treasury Source: Spread MBA, Fed Source: Mortgage Originations Inside Mortgage Finance U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 4
  • 6. Primary Risk In Force $36B What We Avoided – Sub-Prime Bulk – Second Liens Flow 96% What We Did – Flow Focused – 93% Fixed Rate – Underweighted California – Low Alt-A ~4% Bulk 4% Q2’08 RIF Alt-A Percentage Does Not Include Loans With Reduced Or Different Documentation That Met Specifications Of GSE Underwriting Systems With Historical And Expected Delinquency Rates Consistent With Standard Documentation Loans. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 5
  • 7. Exposure & Severity Definitions = Lesser of “Maximum Exposure” or “Loss on Property Sale” Claim Payment (Unpaid Principal Balance + Claimable Expenses) x Coverage % Claimable Expenses Mortgage Insurance Coverage Accrued Interest (Typically Coverage Loan to Value Maximum Exposure 65% of Total Claimable) 100% 35% Legal Fees 95% 30% Property Taxes 90% 25% Hazard Insurance, etc Property Sale Proceeds - Unpaid Principal Balance Loss On Sale - Claimable Expenses - Sales Costs Loss On Property Sale Claim Payment Severity Coverage Percent x Unpaid Principal Balance (MI Coverage Amount) U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 6
  • 8. Flow & Bulk Coverage Comparison Flow Bulk Originator / Investor Bulk MI (3%) Originator / Investor Investor Deductible (1%) 67% LTV Borrower Equity or Primary MI (25%) Primary MI (20 – 33%) Borrower Equity (10%) 100% LTV Loan Level Coverage Pool Coverage 1st Loss Position After Borrower On Bulk Covers After Equity, Any Each Loan Primary MI, and Investor Deductible Exposure Capped By Coverage And Exposure Capped By Stop Loss Captive Reinsurance The Charts Above Are Offered To Illustrate Typical Insurance Arrangements For The Flow And Bulk Business. In Practice, There Is Some Variation From These Examples. Captive Reinsurance Arrangements Apply To Approximately 60% Of Genworth's Flow Risk In Force As Of Q2 2008. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 7
  • 9. Strong Relative Performance Primary Delinquency Rates Industry Genworth Industry Represents MGIC, PMI, UGI, ORI and TRIAD Based on MICA Reports. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 8
  • 10. Flow Drivers - Geography $34.7B 16% Other Magnified Impact In 4 States Driven By Significant Home Price 82% Declines & Product Concentration – Sand States ~(25)% HPA 84% – Other States ~(6)% HPA Sand States: FL, CA, 18% AZ, NV % of RIF 2Q'08 Change In Loss Reserves U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 9
  • 11. Flow Drivers - Products $34.7B A-Minus 6% Performance 10% 4% Alt-A A-Minus & Alt-A Weak 20% 24% 100 LTV – Reduced Documentation – Relaxed Lender Underwriting 18% 100 LTV In Line With RIF 70% Core 48% % of RIF 2Q'08 Change In Loss Reserves U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 10
  • 12. Flow Drivers - Vintages Flow 2005-2007 Books: $34.7B 5% – Flat To Negative Home price 2008 21% Appreciation … Lower Refinancing Options Impacting Cure Rates 48% – Remaining Core: Sub Performance 2007 31% Primarily Driven By Sand States Flow 2008 Book: 2006 – ’07 Special Product Overhang 14% – Continued Geographic Weakness In 31% 2005 11% The Sand States – Substantial Collateral Improvement 23% 13% 2004 and Prior From New Guidelines 3% % of RIF 2Q'08 Change In Loss Reserves U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 11
  • 13. Delinquency Development Delinquency Counts Loss Reserves (000’s) ($MM) 58.3 Claims $973 46.9 Paid Delq Cures $661 Aging & New Claims Rescissions Delqs Paid Cures New & Delqs Rescissions 3/31/08 6/30/08 3/31/08 6/30/08 Loss Reserves Primarily Driven By New Delinquencies And Aging Of Delinquencies Cures & Rescissions Impacting New Delinquency Build-up Loan Workouts Impacting Claim Amount U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 12
  • 14. Geographic And Loan Balance Influence Average Loan Balance Average Loan Balance ($000’s) ($000’s) 169 Regions 2006 2007 1H2008 164 Southeast 143 155 159 146 South Central 133 147 152 Northeast 148 165 173 North Central 140 149 154 2006 2007 1H2008 Pacific 216 268 273 Great Lakes 118 122 124 Average Claim Payments Plains 111 121 126 ($000’s) Mid-Atlantic 171 199 207 43 35 New England 194 210 215 28 Total 146 164 169 2006 2007 1H2008 Based on Primary (Flow and Bulk) Insurance In Force U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 13
  • 15. Severity Profile Factors Impacting Severity Genworth Severity By Region 2007 2Q’08 % Flow RIF Regions 2006 Claim Factors 2Q’08 – Claimable Expense 24% Southeast 92% 95% 102% 17% South Central 88% 93% 98% – Lower Home Prices 13% Northeast 104% 100% 107% Offsetting Factors 12% North Central 96% 98% 101% – Borrower Equity 11% Pacific 75% 89% 102% 8% Great Lakes 107% 109% 110% – Total Home Price Appreciation 6% Plains 93% 96% 100% – Coverage Level 5% Mid-Atlantic 88% 93% 101% Regional Variation 4% New England 90% 91% 97% Flow Portfolio 100% Severity 96% 99% 103% Severity Based on Simple Average of Claim Payment Experience. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 14
  • 16. Captive Reinsurance Protects Downside 40% Cede Excess Loss Example Captives Absorb More Losses Premiums Losses 110 Quarterly Captive Benefit ($MM) Remaining Lender GNW Losses 40% 60% 2nd Loss Lender 2007 Book GNW (4-14 Claims Layer) 19 2006 Book 1 1st Loss (0-4 Claims Layer) GNW 2005 Book 4Q’07 1Q’08 2Q’08 ~ 2/3 Of Genworth Captives Funding Adequacy Captive Loss Tier Exposure 60% Flow Book With Captives “Book Year” Basis By Lender See Appendix Page 27 For Additional Detail. Trust Balances Impacted By Future Premiums Received, Payment Of Claims And Dividends. $948MM In Captive Trusts Captive Reinsurance Trust Set Up For Each Lender; Each Trust Balance Secures That Lender’s Risk Only. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 15
  • 17. Influences On Capital & Loss Scenarios Historic New Mkt. Dynamics Traditional Indicators Unemployment Correlated With Recession Pressure Rates Delinquencies Liquidity Consumer Behavior Home Price Correlated With Appreciation Claims Alternative Products Gov’t Initiatives Risk To Capital Statutory Levels 25:1 Rating Agencies Differentiate View Based On Risk Profile U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 16
  • 18. Capital Scenarios ($B) $2.2 Capital December ’09 $2.1 $2.0 AA Capital Estimate $2.0 $2.0 $2.0 Risk To Cap. 15-17:1 17-18:1 18-19:1 Add’l Cap. $250MM $300MM $400MM Projects Base Stress Severe Assumptions HPA1 20% Decline, Q2 ’09 29% Decline, Q4 ’09 33% Decline, Q3 ’10 (Peak To Trough) Unemployment1 Peaks in ’09 at 6.5% Peaks In Q4 ’09 – Peaks at 9.8% In Q2 ‘10 Q1 ’10 at 8.3% Returns in 3Q ’09 Returns in Q1 ’10 Returns in Q4 ’10 Market Liquidity 1 Source: Economy.com U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 17
  • 19. Performance Management Proactive Portfolio Monitoring & Actions To Carve Out Sub- Performing Buckets Rigorous Back-Testing Of Product And Geographic Changes Forward Looking Declining Market Policy Based On Expected Home Price Declines And Market Conditions U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 18
  • 20. Product Actions Taking Effect Product Exits/Guidelines Moves Price Increase Alt-A 20%+ Price Increase In Gross Average Rate A-Minus Average Captive Cede 95%+ LTV Decreasing Interest Only Increases Net Premium By 30% Flow New Insurance Written Product Mix 1% 2% 1% 7% Core 100 13% 1% 25% 1% 4% Alt A 5% 11% A-Minus 99% 99% 98% 92% Core 82% 59% 2007 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08E 4Q'08E 2009E U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 19
  • 21. Address Geographic Risk Trends Total U.S. 371 MSAs California 26 MSAs Florida 22 MSAs Geographic Trends Ineligible in Declining Markets Peak-to-Date Decline In The Sand LTV > 90% States of 25.1% FICO < 720 In The Sand States 146 MSAs Identified Under Policy … FICO < 680 In Other Declining States 57 In The Sand States, 89 In 25 Other Cash Out Refinance States U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 20
  • 22. Active Portfolio Management Addressing Loss Development Mitigation Savings Tripled Dedicated Resources 80 Expanded Fraud Targeting On High Workouts Risk Channels & Portfolio Segments 60 Investigations Optimizing Loss Mitigation Workflow $ MM By Risk Type 40 Accelerating Servicer/Realtor Driven 20 Workouts Via Expert Training Programs 0 3Q '07 4Q '07 1Q '08 2Q '08 U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 21
  • 23. Creating Capital Flexibility Claims Paying Resources In Force Capital Management Shift High Capital Charge Assets ($B) $3.4 International Reinsurance Changes Statutory Contingency Funding New Business Growth Reserves 2.1 Reinsurance Statutory Surplus 0.4 Other Opportunities Captive Trusts 0.9 Venture Structures 6/30/08 U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 22
  • 24. Impact Of Legislative Changes GSE Reform MI Impact + New Regulator With Strong Oversight Strong Product/Programs Approval + + Increased Loan Limits FHA Rescue / Modernization + FHA Insures Refis … Lender Write-Downs Workouts of Delinquent MI Loans + Increased Loan Limits + One-Year Moratorium on Risk Based Pricing U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 23
  • 25. Emerging Legislation GSE Conservatorship MI Impact + Guarantee Business the Priority Secured Lending Credit Facility + + Treasury Program to Buy GSE MBS Troubled Asset Relief Program + Mortgage Market Restoration/Liquidity U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 24
  • 26. Positioning The Industry For The Future Industry Dynamics – 2003-2007 Business Model Shift 99% Core Product Mortgage Insurers 40% XOL Lender Captives 20%+ Core Flow Price Increase High Percentage of Alt. Products 25% XOL Max on Captives Stacked Risk Factors Underwriting & Regulatory Lenders Improvements Loosened Underwriting Broaden Consumer Proposition Grew Alternative Products Investors MBS Pricing Not Reflecting Risk 15 - 20% ROE Target U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 25
  • 27. Appendix U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 26
  • 28. Captive Reinsurance - Disclosure Aggregate Book Year Analysis Provided to Illustrate Directional Progression Toward Captive Attachment 1 March 31, 2008 December 31, 2007 June 30, 2008 Captive Ever to Date Captive Ever to Date Captive Original Book Progression to Current RIF Ever to Date Incurred Benefit Current RIF Incurred Losses Benefit Current RIF Incurred Losses Benefit Book Year 2 RIF ($B) Attachment Point ($B) Losses ($MM) ($MM) ($B) ($MM) ($MM) ($B) ($MM) ($MM) 2005 0-50% $0.4 $10 $0.5 $10 $0.8 $16 2005 50-75% 0.4 22 1.6 72 1.5 56 2005 75-99% 1.1 72 0.2 11 0.4 15 2005 Attached 0.6 44 0.3 20 - 2 2005 Total $4.4 $2.5 $148 $6 $2.6 $113 $1 $2.7 $89 $- 2006 0-50% $0.2 $2 $0.5 $11 $0.7 $10 2006 50-75% 0.4 17 0.3 8 1.8 55 2006 75-99% 0.4 26 0.5 23 0.8 31 2006 Attached 2.1 185 2.0 113 0.1 5 2006 Total $4.2 $3.1 $230 61 $3.3 $155 17 $3.4 $101 1 2007 0-50% $1.0 $17 $4.3 $77 $6.9 $56 2007 50-75% 1.0 33 1.0 23 - - 2007 75-99% 2.2 77 0.8 25 - - 2007 Attached 2.2 128 0.5 22 - - 2007 Total $6.9 $6.4 $255 43 $6.6 $147 1 $6.9 $56 - Captive Benefit In Quarter ($MM) $110 $19 $1 1 Data presented in aggregate for all trusts. Actual trust attachment and exit points will vary by individual lender contract. For purposes of this illustration, incurred losses equals change in reserves plus paid claims. The information presented excludes quota share captive reinsurance data. Progress toward captive attachment is determined at a lender level for each book year by dividing ever to date incurred losses by original RIF for that book year. 2 Book year figures may include loans from additional periods pursuant to reinsurance agreement terms and conditions. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 27
  • 29. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements This presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “expects,” “intends,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “will,” or words of similar meaning and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for our future business and financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors and risks, including the following: • Risks relating to our businesses, including interest rate fluctuations, downturns and volatility in equity and credit markets, downgrades in our financial strength and credit ratings, insufficiency of reserves, legal constraints on dividend distributions by subsidiaries, intense competition, availability and adequacy of reinsurance, defaults by counterparties, legal or regulatory investigations or actions, political or economic instability affecting outsourcing arrangements, regulatory restrictions on our operations and changes in applicable laws and regulations, the failure or any compromise of the security of our computer systems, and the occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a disease pandemic; • Risks relating to our U.S. Mortgage Insurance segment, including increases in mortgage insurance delinquency rates or severity of defaults, deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home price appreciation, the influence of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and a small number of large mortgage lenders and investors, decreases in the volume of high loan-to-value mortgage originations or increases in mortgage insurance cancellations, increases in the use of alternatives to private mortgage insurance (such as simultaneous second mortgages) and reductions by lenders in the level of coverage they select, increases in the use of reinsurance with reinsurance companies affiliated with our mortgage lending customers, increased competition with government-owned and government-sponsored entities offering mortgage insurance, changes in regulations, legal actions under Real Estate Settlement Practices Act, and potential liabilities in connection with our U.S. contract underwriting services; and • Other risks, including the possibility that in certain circumstances we will be obligated to make payments to General Electric (GE) under our tax matters agreement even if our corresponding tax savings are never realized and payments could be accelerated in the event of certain changes in control, and provisions of our certificate of incorporation and by-laws and our tax matters agreement with GE may discourage takeover attempts and business combinations that stockholders might consider in their best interests. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise. U.S. Mortgage Insurance Update September 25, 2008 28