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Caterpillar Inc. at Merrill Lynch Conference - London
1. Caterpillar
Mike DeWalt
Director of Investor Relations
MAKING PROGRESS POSSIBLE
2. 2
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT UNDER THE PRIVATE SECURITIES
LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
Certain statements contained in this presentation are forward-looking and involve
risks, assumptions and uncertainties that cause actual results of Caterpillar to be
materially different from those projected or implied in the forward looking
statements. In this context, words such as quot;willquot;, โbelieves,โ โexpects,โ โestimates,โ
โanticipates,โ โwill be,โ โshouldโ and similar words or expressions identify forward-
looking statements made on behalf of Caterpillar. It is important to note that actual
results of Caterpillar may differ materially from those described or implied in such
forward-looking statements based on a number of factors and uncertainties,
including, but not limited to, changes in economic conditions; currency exchange or
interest rates; political stability; market acceptance of Caterpillar's products and
services; significant changes in the competitive environment; changes in law,
regulations and tax rates; and other general economic, business and financing
conditions and factors.
A more complete summary of risks and uncertainties is described in more detail in
Caterpillar's Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on
February 22, 2008. Caterpillar undertakes no obligation to update these forward-
looking statements.
3. 3
What Iโll Cover Today
โข A quick overview of Caterpillar and recent history
โข Our view of 2008
โข A broader look forward
โ Prospects for the world economy
โ Continued need for, and robust investment in, the worldโs
infrastructure
โ Caterpillar โฆ in 2010 and beyond
4. 4
36% EPS CAGR 2002 to 2007
5 Years of Growth
Sales and Revenues Earnings Per Share
$5.37
$5.17
$41.5 $45.0
$43
$41
$36.3
$36
$4.04
$30.3
$30
$2.88
$22.8
$23
$20.2
$20
$1.56
$1.15
2007
2005
2004 2006
2003
2002
2007
2005
2004 2006
2003
2002
5. 5
Synergistic growth &
Sales and Revenues improved earnings stability
Genuine Cat
2007 Actual
Replacement Parts
Products 64%
$29 Billion
Integrated
Services 36%
Solar Customer Services
$16 Billion
6. 6
Product Range Machines
About 300 Models in a broad range of product categories โฆ
Backhoe Loaders Skid Steer Loaders Multi Terrain Loaders Integrated Tool Carriers
Wheel Loaders Excavators Wheel Excavators Track-Type Tractors
Track Loaders Pipelayers Landfill Compactors Soil Compactors
Wheel Dozers Motor Graders Wheel Tractor Scrapers Articulated Trucks
Off Highway Trucks Underground Trucks Underground Loaders Track Skidders
Wheel Skidders Feller Bunchers Vibratory Compactors Asphalt Compactors
Asphalt Pavers Pneumatic Compactors Cold Planers Rotary Mixers
7. 7
End markets Machines
Infrastructure
Residential
Road Construction
Building
Paving
Site Prep
Military
Lawn Care
Civil
Sewer & Water Tie-in
Aggregate Recycling
Nonresidential
Industrial
Building
Industrial Processing
Site Prep
Demolition
Landscaping
Scrap
Underground Utilities
Ports
Energy
Forestry
Coal
Logging
Oil Sands
Mill Yard
Petroleum
Waste
Mining & Quarrying Landfill Operations
Metals Waste Handling
Non-metals Specialized Waste
Quarrying
9. 9
End markets Engines
Petroleum
Cat Machines
Electric Power
Industrial
On-Highway Marine
Truck
10. 10
Geographic Diversity The Global Leader
Geographic Mix - Sales and Revenues
Caterpillar
โข Broadest footprint in the industry
Outside Outside
โข About 101,000 Employees North
North North
North
America
America America America
โข 278 Facilities 44%
43% 56%
57%
โข In about 50 countries
1997 2007
Caterpillar Dealers
โข 181 Cat dealers
โข 3,000+ branches & rental stores
โข Over 120,000 employees
11. 11
Sales and Costs
Caterpillar Overview
Machinery & Engines
Sales & Revenues
2007 Operating Costs
Up over 8% in 2007
Machines Factory
Up 9% Labor &
Material
Burden
Costs
63%
56%
31%
30%
7%
Engines 9%
4%
Up 6%
Financial Products SG & A
R&D
Up 13%
12. 12
Capacity and Product
Investing in the future Development
Capital Expenditures Research & Development
Up
$2.3B 15-20%
$1.3B $1.4B
$1.7B
$1.6B
$1.1B
$928M
$1.2B
$926M $669M
$682M
08*
03 04 05 06 07 08*
03 04 05 06 07
Excluding Equipment Leased to Others * Outlook
13. 13
Most Recent Results
1st Qtr 2008 Change from 1st Qtr 2007
Sales and Revenues $11.8 Billion $1.8B 18%
EPS $1.45 $0.22 18%
Profit
Sales and Revenues
โข Asset gains in Q1-2008 and Q1-2007.
โข Up 37% in Asia Pacific region, up 30% in
EAME, up 24% in Latin America โฆ and โข Currency impact negative about $100M
up 4% in North America
โข Sales mix negative, particularly for
โข Of the $1.8B increase โฆ volume was Machinery.
$1.1B, currency translation was $310M,
โข Material costs up about 1%
price realization was $261M, and
โข Incremental margin slightly over 20%
Financial Products revenues were up
excluding currency impact and sales mix.
$122M
15. 15
Sales patterns
Sales patterns
Worldwide Machine Industry diverging
diverging
350
Machine Industry Unit Index
18%
2002 = 100
300
Outside 28%
North America
250
200
-11%
-10%
150
North
America
100
50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Caterpillar Estimate
16. 16
By Geographic
2008 Sales and Revenues Region
Worldwide up 5 to 10%
North America
+/- 2%
EAME
Up 7 to 12%
Asia Pacific
Up 15 to 20%
Latin America
Up 15 to 20%
17. 17
Expect a record year
2008 Outlook despite U.S. weakness
2007 2008
Actual Outlook
Sales and Revenues $45 B Up 5 - 10%
Earnings Per Share $5.37 Up 5 - 15%
18. 18
Long-Term Positive
Key Longer-term Trends for Caterpillar
We expect continued strong
growth in worldwide infrastructure
spending over the next decade
Significant growth in the developing world โฆ and
they have the money!
Significant need to improve and rebuild
infrastructure in the developed world โฆ after years
of under investment
19. 19
Years of
Factors Driving Construction construction
underinvestment
Developed Economies Developing Economies
โข Old, outdated buildings โข Large, rapidly growing populations
โข Insufficient infrastructure โข Inadequate infrastructure
โข Modest economic growth โข Rapid economic growth
We expect continued
good growth in
construction
20. 20
Mining & Energy A Very Positive Future
โข Growing world demand
โข Prolonged underinvestment
โข Insufficient shipping capacity
โข Low inventories & tight spare capacity
21. 21
Generally positive
Commodity Prices Are Favorable for investment
2006 Average Price
Dollars per Market Unit 2007 Average Price
2008 Forecast Average Price
7.00
6.98
Estimated Threshold for investment
6.74
81
72
66
63
4.50
50
47
3.23
3.05
41 3.00
40
1.30
HH Natural Gas Copper
WTI Crude Oil CA Coal
Source: Haver Analytics, Business Economics
22. 22
Continued low
Spare Oil Production Capacity spare capacity
Millions of barrels per day
5
Safety Zone
4.1
4
3.1
3
2.2
1.9
2
1.5
1.3
1.0
1
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Spare capacity from EIA, Reserves from BP 2007 Statistical Review
23. 23
Fast Growing Asian Economies
Regional Metals Demand are Largest Users of Metals
69
Percent Share of Worldwide Demand
53 53
52
49
36
30
29
25
22
18
16
11
10
6 6 5
4 4
2
Aluminum Copper Nickel Zinc Iron Ore
North America Europe/AME/CIS Latin America Asia/Pacific
Source: Barclays Capital, AME
24. 24
Replacement opportunity
Worldwide Mining Fleets
% of Machines More Than 10 Years Old (2007)
657
Units
1,160
1,075
10,254
907
7,838
69%
65%
57%
56%
54%
50%
Coal Mines Metals Mines
Source: Parker Bay.
Crawlers Trucks Wheel Loaders
25. 25
China / Emerging Markets
Development of the complete Caterpillar business model in China is
progressing rapidly :
New engine factory under construction
Wheel loader factory under construction
Hydraulic component facility under construction
Completed the acquisition of SEM โฆ China domestic wheel loader
manufacturer โ Cat now owns 100%
Product strategy being executed with a growing array of products in China
Cat Logistics, Cat Financial, and Cat Remanufacturing are all in place and
growing in China
The dealer strategy is in place and dealers are expanding
Ownership change at SCM could help accelerate growth
Sales in China in 2008 are expected to be close to $2 billion
With the China strategy in full swing, itโs time to broaden the focus to
include other emerging markets โ thereโs been significant growth, and a
big opportunity in India and the CIS.
26. 26
Our goals for 2010 Sales and Profit
Last Year Today
2010 Sales & Revenues Approaching
$50 billion โplusโ
$60 billion
In a plausible range of
$45 to $60 billion
EPS Growth No Change
EPS CAGR of 15% to
20% from a 2005 base
That means EPS in a
range of about $8 to
$10 per share
27. 27
2010 EPS Goal The Road Map
Goal
$8 to $10
Per Share
Share repurchase $0.70-$1.10
Profitability โ Improved after-
$.83 - $1.78
tax ROS
Sales growth โ at our โข Pull through on higher volume
$1.10 - $1.75
2007 after tax profit rate, โข Modest price realization
plus Financial Products expectations
profit growth
โข Operational improvement โ CPS
2007
Actual
$5.37
28. 28
The positive
2012 โ Five Years Out story continues
We expect continued growth in the world economy and a positive
environment for most of our end markets โฆ notably Mining, Energy,
Power Generation, and Infrastructure.
We expect Caterpillar Sales and Revenues to continue growing at an
attractive rate โฆ largely organically.
We are investing heavily in new products and capacity.
We are focused on execution in the areas of Safety, Quality,Velocity,
and Cost โฆ and we expect to be able to continue our compound
annual EPS growth of 15 to 20% through 2012!
29. 6.6
6.4
6.1
29
3.6
3.4
3.2 3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8 2.8
2.6 2.6
2.5
1.6
1.5
1.3
World North America EAME Latin America Asia Pacific Japan
1990 - 1999 2000 - 2008 2009 - 2017
World Economic Growth
Global infrastructure needs
Our customers
โMake Progress Possibleโ
No company is
better positioned
than Caterpillar
Broadest product line
On a foundation of a large
population of machines & engines
Unparalleled global dealer network Global manufacturing footprint