The document discusses trends in the U.S. retail photo print industry from 2009 to 2014. It finds that conventional digital print volume and revenue declined starting in 2009 and will continue falling. Personalized printed output represents a growth opportunity but has not fully compensated for the loss of conventional prints. By 2014, over 50% of print revenues are expected to come from personalized products. The addition of these products creates a more positive outlook for the category overall compared to just conventional prints. Dry printing technologies are rapidly replacing traditional wet printing methods.
5. From Still Images to Short-From Video (the “Flip Factor”)DSC’s that provide complexities and no solutions. Unnecessarily “bloated” image files. Retailer retreat (capital, labor, space, advertising) No one driving awareness and demand for the category Far too many unnecessary friction points for consumers to navigate from capture to retail output services. Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 2 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
6. Situation Analysis Conventionalprint volume (film + digital) and revenue continues to fall and that fall has accelerated in 2010. Conventional digital print volume and revenue began to decline in 2009 and the decline will continue. Walmart Stores, which enjoyed share leadership for numerous years, has slipped from the top position, with promotional drug chains Walgreens and CVS gaining share. Personalized printed output continues to be the on-demand print category growth opportunity for retailers. Kiosk prints as a % of total prints will grow as retailers increasingly turn to lower-cost, lower-touch print solutions while consumers opt for instant gratification. 3 Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 3 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
7. Situation Analysis - 2 Transformation from “wet” chemical minilabs to “dry” ink, dye-sub, laser and xerographic replacement print platforms has begun (e.g. Walmart has completed more than ½ of their installed base to Fuji and Epson Inkjet and Xerox . Meijer and Duane Reade have Hewlett-Packard ink and laser platforms. CVS and Target are rapidly updating with Kodak Apex dry solutions). Seasonal demand spikes are a significant and increasing challenge for retailers as demand shifts from everyday conventional print demand to personalized products, with primary demand concentrated from mid-November through late-December. Focus required to identify and develop new output products with everyday demand. 4 Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 4 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
8. 5 Total On-Site Photo Print Output 2009-2014(4x6 Equivalent Units - B) The growth of personalized printed output is not yet on a trend to compensate fully for the loss of conventional print consumption. Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 5 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
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10. By 2014 revenues from personalized printed products are likely to represent more than 50% of category print revenues. Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 6 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
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12. Minilab prints, under current trends, will decline by >40% over next 5 years while Instant prints hold steady.Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 7 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
13. 8 Retail Digital Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B) Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 8 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
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15. This projection does not consider likely growth driven by inevitable new products and enabling technologyRetail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 9 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
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17. There are, simultaneously, forces at work that limit the investment interest in minilabs (especially labor costs, operational complexities, and declining revenues).
18. Other trigger events which could radically alter share of prints would include print from Facebook.Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 10 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
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20. As the share of output from personalized printed output grows this trend threatens to shift even more volume to a narrow holiday window.
21. The popularity of photo merchandise, which is currently dominated by holiday gift giving increases the challenges of equipping and staffing this changing category.Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 11 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
22. 12 Personalized Photo PrintsShare of Revenue - 2009 Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 12 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
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24. A majority of all personalized printed output will be dry.Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 13 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
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26. 15 Threats & Opportunities Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 15 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
27. Engines of Growth 16 Meeting consumers where they love to be with simple, meaningful, affordable solutions (print from Facebook and pick-up in an hour) Personalized Event Celebration Bundles Home Décor Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output Retail Products with Output Components Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output Delivering a select number of new high-demand products with year-long demand Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010 PAGE 16 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
28. Personalized Event Celebration Bundles Birthday Anniversaries Family Gatherings Class Reunions In Remembrance ….and much more! Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009 PAGE 17 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009 17
29. Executed properly this could be (will be?) the print-industry and consumer memory preservation salvation. Executed properly this could re-establish Fujifilm and its retail partners as the dominant force for years to come. Executed properly this could dramatically increase overall retail print demand, re-establish a category investment rationale for retailers, and re-anchor dedicated support in key mass retail locations. 18 Print from Facebook Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009 PAGE 18 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
30. Home Decor Canvas Prints Posters Collages Framed Prints Etc. PAGE 19 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009 19 Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009
31. Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output Flyers Menus Direct Mail Catalogs Image-Rich Business Cards Banners Interior and Exterior Signs Variable Data Advertising (circulars, handbills, etc.) Variable Data Direct Mail Materials ….and much more! Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009 PAGE 20 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009 20
32. Retail Products with Output Components Build-An-Album (pages vs. books) Collage Frame and Software bundles Album, Scanner & Software Bundles QiGO-powered Retail Products ….and much more! Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009 PAGE 21 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009 21
33. Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output Disney Characters & Movie Releases) Mattel Hasbro Martha Stewart NFL NBA MLB NASCAR Warner Brothers (Characters & Movie Releases) Pixar (Characters & Movie Releases) Celebrities Events (Festivals, Major Sports Events, Concerts, etc.) ….and Much More Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009 PAGE 22 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009 22
34. Retail Photo Output Projections Update PAGE 23 Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009 Frank Baillargeon Thank You 23