VNI, Informacion America Latina, Junio 11, 2014

Cisco Visual Networking Index
and VNI Service Adoption
Lucas Olocco
June 11, 2014
Global and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico) Forecast Update
2013–2018

Cisco Confidential 2© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)
Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth
Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.
VNI VNI VNI VNI VNI
Service Adoption
Forecast
Fixed & Mobile
IP Traffic Forecast
FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS

More Video Viewing
79% of All IP Traffic
Faster Broadband Speeds
2.6-Fold Speed Increase
More Devices
21 Billion Connections
More Internet Users
4 Billion Internet Users
Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2013–2018
Growth
Catalysts

Establishing the Zettabyte Era
1.6 zettabytes is equal to:
•  13X more than all IP traffic generated
in 2008 (121 exabytes)
•  1day / 24 hours of ultra-HD video per
person of the world population
By 2018, global IP traffic will
reach an annual run rate of
1.6 zettabytes per year
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
•  One trillion gigabytes
•  Approximately 1021
(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)
What is a zettabyte?

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)
Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
Exabytes
per Month
50
39
51
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
IP Traffic in 2013 Internet Traffic in 2013
Projected in 2010
Actual

51 62
76
91
110
132
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Global IP Traffic will Increase 3X from 2013 to 2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

3.5
4.4
5.3
6.4
7.6
8.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

0.33
0.41
0.49
0.58
0.67
0.78
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Argentina IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Argentina IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.4X from 2013 to 2018
19% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

1.6
2.0
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.9
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Brazil IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Brazil IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
20% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

0.21
0.26
0.32
0.38
0.45
0.52
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chile IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Chile IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
20% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

0.6 0.8
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.8
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mexico IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Mexico IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.8X from 2013 to 2018
23% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

0.7 0.9
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Rest of LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.6X from 2013 to 2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR)
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (23% CAGR)
Middle East and Africa (MEA) (38% CAGR)
Western Europe (WE) (18% CAGR)
North America (NA) (20% CAGR)
Asia Pacific (APAC) (21% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic Growth / Regions
MEA has the Highest Growth Rate at 38% CAGR 2013–2018
APAC will Generate 35% of all IP Traffic by 2018
30.8%
35.9%
14.6%
7.8%
6.8%
4.1%
21% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of LATAM (21% CAGR)
Chile (20% CAGR)
Argentina (19% CAGR)
Mexico (23% CAGR)
Brazil (20% CAGR)
LATAM IP Traffic Growth / Countries
Mexico has the Highest Growth Rate at 23% CAGR 2013–2018
Brazil will Generate 44% of all IP Traffic by 2018
20.4%
43.7%
8.8%
21.2%
5.9%
21% CAGR
Exabytes
per Month

Global Internet Users Growth
By 2018, There Will Be Nearly 4 Billion Internet Users
North America
317 Million by 2018
CAGR 2%
Latin America
371 Million by 2018
CAGR 9.6%
Western Europe
346 Million by 2018
CAGR 1.4%
Middle East & Africa
431 Million by 2018
CAGR 15.1%
Central/Eastern Europe
339 Million by 2018
CAGR 8.6%
Asia Pacific
2.1 Billion by 2018
CAGR 11.2%

Global Device Growth
By 2018, There Will Be ~21 Billion Networked Devices/Connections
North America
3.4 Billion by 2018
CAGR 13%
Latin America
1.7 Billion by 2018
CAGR 9%
Western Europe
2.8 Billion by 2018
CAGR 11%
2 Billion by 2018
CAGR 9%
1.6 Billion by 2018
CAGR 10%
Asia Pacific
9.2 Billion by 2018
CAGR 11%

By 2018, over half of the
world’s population (52%) will
have Internet access.
By 2018, there will be 2.7
device/connections per capita.
By 2018, 50% of all device/
connections will be mobile-
connected.

By 2018, over two-third of the
population (67%) will have
Internet access.
connected.
Argentina

Internet access.
connected.
Brazil

Internet access.
By 2018, there will be 4
connected.
Chile

Internet access.
connected.
Mexico

North America
2.5-fold Growth
18–43 Mbps
Latin America
2.6-fold Growth
6–16 Mbps
Western Europe
2.5-fold Growth
19–49 Mbps
2.6-fold Growth
6–15 Mbps
2.6-fold Growth
18–45 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.7-fold Growth
18–48 Mbps
Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration
2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)

In Argentina, fixed
broadband speeds will
grow 2.6-fold reaching
11 Mbps by 2018, up
from 4.1 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018

In Brazil, fixed
17 Mbps by 2018, up
from 6.8 Mbps in 2013.

In Chile, fixed
28 Mbps by 2018, up
from 11 Mbps in 2013.

In Mexico, fixed
19 Mbps by 2018, up
from 7 Mbps in 2013.

North America
40.5 EB/Month by 2018
Video Share = 84%
Latin America
Video Share = 81%
Western Europe
Video Share = 79%
Video Share = 79%
Video Share = 70%
Asia Pacific
Video Share = 77%
Global IP Traffic - Increasing Video Viewing
By 2018, Video Represents 79% of Global IP Traffic

In Argentina, monthly IP video
traffic will grow 4-fold
reaching 595 PB by 2018, up
from 168 PB in 2013.
By 2018, IP video will be 76%
of all IP traffic in Argentina.

In Brazil, monthly IP video
reaching 3.2 EB by 2018, up
from 1.0 EB in 2013.
of all IP traffic in Brazil.

In Chile, monthly IP video
reaching 393 PB by 2018, up
of all IP traffic in Chile.

In Mexico, monthly IP video
reaching 1.6 EB by 2018, up
of all IP traffic in Mexico.

Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
30 GB per month
In 2013
15 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
73 GB per month
In 2013
Future
Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User

Average LATAM Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
25 GB per month
In 2013
Future
By 2018
72 GB per month
In 2013
Future

Average Argentina Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
27 GB per month
In 2013
Future
By 2018
72 GB per month
In 2013
Future

Average Brazil Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
30 GB per month
In 2013
Future
By 2018
78 GB per month
In 2013
Future

Average Chile Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
48 GB per month
In 2013
Future
By 2018
119 GB per month
In 2013
Future

Average Mexico Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
22 GB per month
In 2013
Future
By 2018
71 GB per month
In 2013
Future

VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018
Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1
Device Transitions Alter
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
Content Delivery Networks
(CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6
IP Video Traffic Analysis
(SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7
Residential, Business & Consumer
Mobile Service Adoption
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
IPv6 Shows Continued
Global Adoption
10
Tiered Pricing: Comparing
Mobile & Fixed Data Caps

Global Connected Devices Growth by Type
By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share
11% CAGR
Billions of
Devices
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (18.6%,35.2%)
Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%)
Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%)
TV (10.0%,12.8%)
PCs (12.2%,7.0%)
Tablets (2.3%,5.0%)
Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)

Increasing Video Definition
By 2018, More than 20% of Global Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K
1 8
28
63
119
202
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SD 2 Mbps
HD 7.2 Mbps
UHD 18 Mbps
Connected 4K
TV Sets (M)

Latin America Connected Devices Growth by Type
By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections
9% CAGR
Billions of
Devices
0
1
2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (14.7%,26.7%)
TV (4.4%,13.3%)
PCs (14.9%,9.1%)
Tablets (1.4%,4.8%)

Brazil Connected Devices Growth by Type
By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections
9% CAGR
Billions of
Devices
0.0
0.5
1.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (15.6%,29.1%)
TV (4.3%,13.1%)
PCs (15.7%,10.3%)
Tablets (1.2%,4.7%)

Average Global Traffic per Device (2013)
=Tablet
Ultra High Definition TV
Laptop/PC
Internet Set-Top or Dongle
4.0 GB
= 22.9 GB*
22.7 GB
= 8.0 GB
* Includes IP VoD Traffic
=
=Smartphone 1.0 GB
=M2M Module 78 MB

Global IP Traffic by Device Type
By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic
Exabytes
per Month
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (0.4%,2.8%)
Tablets (2.2%,14.0%)
TV (26.5%,23.6%)
PCs (67.2%,42.8%)
21% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share

Latin America IP Traffic by Device Type
By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly 40% of LATAM IP Traffic
Exabytes
per Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (0.2%,2.0%)
Tablets (1.0%,9.4%)
TV (5.3%,12.7%)
PCs (91.1%,61.4%)
21% CAGR

Brazil IP Traffic by Device Type
By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 32% of Brazil IP Traffic
Exabytes
per Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (0.2%,1.7%)
Tablets (0.6%,6.4%)
TV (4.8%,11.5%)
PCs (92.0%,67.8%)
20% CAGR

Global Internet Traffic by Device Type
By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 50% of Global Internet Traffic
Exabytes
per Month
23% CAGR
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (0.5%,3.7%)
TV (4.7%,6.2%)
Tablets (3.1%,18.0%)
PCs (86.4%,50.5%)

Latin America Internet Traffic by Device Type
By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive a Third of LATAM Internet Traffic
Exabytes
per Month
20% CAGR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (0.2%,2.2%)
TV (0.9%,3.6%)
Tablets (1.1%,10.7%)
PCs (95.1%,66.8%)

Brazil Internet Traffic by Device Type
By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 27% of Brazil Internet Traffic
Exabytes
per Month
19% CAGR
0
1
2
3
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (0.2%,1.9%)
TV (0.9%,3.7%)
Tablets (0.7%,7.2%)
PCs (95.7%,73.1%)

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth
By 2018, Nearly 1 M2M Connection per Capita
M2M
Connections
(M)
26% CAGR
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asia Pacific (26.3% CAGR)
Central & Eastern Europe (25.7% CAGR)
Latin America (23% CAGR)
Middle East & Africa (25.2% CAGR)
North America (27% CAGR)
Western Europe (24.6% CAGR)
Source: Machina Researc, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2.3 B
2.9 B
3.7 B
4.7 B
5.9 B
7.3 B

Global M2M Traffic Growth
M2M Traffic Will Grow 21-fold from 2013 to 2018
Petabytes
per
Month
84% CAGR
Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asia Pacific (77.4% CAGR)
Central & Eastern Europe (92.7% CAGR)
Latin America (87.5% CAGR)
Middle East & Africa (91.5% CAGR)
North America (91.1% CAGR)
Western Europe (85.5% CAGR)
0.2 EB
0.3 EB
0.6 EB
1.2 EB
2.1 EB
3.7 EB

Globally, M2M connections
will grow more than 3-fold
from 2013 (2.3B) to
2018 (7.3B)
Globally, M2M traffic will
account for 3% of total IP
traffic by 2018, up from
0.4% in 2013

In Brazil, M2M connections
will grow nearly 3-fold from
2013 (65M) to
2018 (187M)
In Brazil, M2M traffic will
account for 1.7% of total IP
traffic by 2018, up from
0.2% in 2013

Internet of Everything
Smart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018
Smart Cars Will Drive 41 Petabytes (PB) of Monthly Traffic by 2018
Smart Cars
Traffic (PB/
Month)
Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Smart Cars
(M)
35
57
90
136
192
256
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3
5
8
15
25
41
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

North America
2.5-fold Growth
18–43 Mbps
Latin America
2.6-fold Growth
6–16 Mbps
Western Europe
2.5-fold Growth
19–49 Mbps
2.6-fold Growth
6–15 Mbps
2.6-fold Growth
18–45 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.7-fold Growth
18–48 Mbps
Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration

Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Consumption
Video Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Fixed Broadband Speeds (Kbps)
Video Minutes
per Viewer
Linear (Video
Minutes per
Viewer)
Video
Minutes
per Viewer
Source: Cisco VNI, 2014
Indonesia
India
Argentina
Italy
Mexico
Brazil
Australia
Chile
Russia
Canada
U.K.
Sweden
Japan
Germany
China
New Zealand
France
Spain
U.S.

Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences
Online Video
(HD movie download)
22 minutes
Online Video
(HD movie download)
4 minutes
Online Video
(HD movie download)
2 minutes
55% of all broadband
connections by 2018
10 Mbps
22% of all broadband
connections by 2018
50 Mbps 100 Mbps
3% of all broadband
connections by 2018
(UHD movie download)
2 hours
23 minutes
12 minutes

North America
2-fold Growth
12–23 Mbps
Latin America
2-fold Growth
5–10 Mbps
Western Europe
2-fold Growth
11–21 Mbps
2.1-fold Growth
4–8.4 Mbps
2.4-fold Growth
9–21 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.1-fold Growth
10–22 Mbps
Global Wi-Fi Speed Acceleration

In Brazil, Wi-Fi speeds
will grow 2.0-fold
reaching 10 Mbps by
2018, up from 4.8
Mbps in 2013.

Surge of Hotspots
Globally, there will be
53 million hotspots by 2018
Plans to have 8 million US
hotspots by end of 2014
Supports approx. 7 million
hotspots in UK today
Offers more than 620K
hotspots in Asia today
Offers more than 500K
hotspots in LATAM today

Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
802.11
2 Mbps Max
Applications Enabled
Basic internet
802.11b
11 Mbps Max
Email
802.11b
11 Mbps Max
Rich Media Web
802.11ac
3.6 Gbps Max
High Resolution Video
Wired Complement
802.11n
600 Mbps Max
Medium Resolution Video
Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 13-fold from 2013 to 2018

North America
2.6-fold Growth
1.7 to 4.5 Mbps
Latin America
1.5-fold Growth
0.7 to 1 Mbps
Western Europe
1.9-fold Growth
1.6 to 3.0 Mbps
1.7-fold Growth
0.5 to 0.9 Mbps
1.7-fold Growth
1.4 to 2.3 Mbps
Asia Pacific
1.5-fold Growth
1.3 to 2.0 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Global Mobile Speed Growth
Nearly 2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (1.4 Mbps) to 2018 (2.5 Mbps)

In Brazil, mobile speeds
will grow 2.0-fold
reaching 1.2 Mbps by
2018, up from 657
kbps in 2013.

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology
Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 49% IP Traffic Share by 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (61% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
39%
36%
12%
21% CAGR 2013–2018
13%

LATAM IP Traffic by Local Access Technology
Petabytes
per Month
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
29%
49%
13%
21% CAGR 2013–2018
9%

Brazil IP Traffic by Local Access Technology
Petabytes
per Month
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
31%
50%
11%
20% CAGR 2013–2018
7%

Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology
Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 61% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
24%
44%
15%
23% CAGR 2013–2018
17%

LATAM Traffic by Local Access Technology
Petabytes
per Month
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
21%
54%
15%
20% CAGR 2013–2018
10%

Brazil Traffic by Local Access Technology
Petabytes
per Month
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
25%
55%
13%
19% CAGR 2013–2018
8%

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology, 2013 and 2018

LATAM Metro versus Long-Haul Traffic Topology

Brazil Metro versus Long-Haul Traffic Topology

Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-CDN Internet Traffic (63.8%, 44.7%)
CDN Internet Traffic (36.2%, 55.3%)
Exabytes
per Month

LATAM Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-CDN Internet Traffic (84.8%, 75.2%)
CDN Internet Traffic (15.2%, 24.8%)
Exabytes
per Month

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Global IP Video Traffic Growth
IP Video Will Account for 79% of Global IP Traffic by 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gaming (0.05%, 0.09%)
File Sharing (13%, 6%)
Web/Data (21%, 15%)
IP VOD (23%, 19%)
21% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share

Latin America IP Video Traffic Growth
Petabytes
per Month
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gaming (0.03%, 0.06%)
Web/Data (23%, 12%)
IP VOD (4%, 10%)
21% CAGR 2013–2018

Brazil IP Video Traffic Growth
Petabytes
per Month
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gaming (0.02%, 0.05%)
Web/Data (24%, 12%)
IP VOD (4%, 8%)
20% CAGR 2013–2018

Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video Growth
Ultra-HD IP Video Will Account for 11% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%,
11%)
25% CAGR 2013–2018

Higher Definition Content Impacts LATAM IP Video Growth
Ultra-HD Will Account for 2.5% of LATAM IP Video Traffic by 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2.5%)
28% CAGR 2013–2018

Higher Definition Content Impacts Brazil IP Video Growth
Ultra-HD Will Account for 2.8% of Brazil IP Video Traffic by 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2.8%)
26% CAGR 2013–2018

0

100

200

300

1
6
11
16

Long Tail Video
Top 10* Sites Account for 41% of Videos Viewed (and >39% of Video Minutes)
Video
Minutes
(B)
Top Video Sites

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1
6
11
16

Long Tail Video (Traffic)
Top 10* Sites Account for 60% of Video Traffic
Exabytes
per month
(EB)
Top Video Sites

Top Global Internet Video Sites by Traffic Volume
(PC-Based Viewing)
Site PB per Month
1 Google / YouTube 1,977
2 FC2 539
3 Youku & Tudou 524
4 Dwango 476
5 LETV.COM 398
6 IQIYI.COM 358
7 Sohu.com Inc. 288
8 NETFLIX.COM 194
9 TENCENT Inc. 162
10 Facebook 146
Site PB per Month
11 Xunlei Networking 136
12 VEVO 86
13 Vimeo 72
14 Mail.ru Group 70
15 Dailymotion 68
16 Ustream 67
17 ALLMYVIDEOS.NET 60
18 BIGCINEMA.TV 60
19 NOWVIDEO.SX 58
20 Yahoo Sites 56

Global Internet Video Consumption
Short Form Most Popular
Video
Minute (B)
55%
39%
4%
1%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Short Form
Video Site
Long Form
Video Site
Extra-Long
Form Video Site
Micro-Video
Site

Growing Length of Global Internet Video
Long Form Video Will Account for 72% of Internet Traffic by 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Long Form Video (64%, 72%)
Short Form and Micro Video (34%, 28%)
30% CAGR 2013–2018

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Global Residential Market, by 2018:
63% (2.5 billion) of Internet users will have
fixed residential internet access.
86% (1.5 billion) TV households will be digital
TV households.
There will be 8 billion fixed residential devices
and connections (up from 3.8 billion in 2013).
Average household will have 3.7 fixed devices
and connections (up from 1.9 in 2013).

Global Residential Services
By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption
Online

Music

Social

Networking

Online
Video

Online

Gaming

VoIP

Digital

TV

Video
on

Demand

Time
Delayed

TV

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

2018
%
Adop+on

Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of
global TV households will be 1.8 billion.
CAGR
2013–2018

Latin America Residential Market, by 2018:
63% (235 million) of Internet users will have
fixed residential internet access.
71% (122 million) TV households will be
digital TV households.
There will be 562 million fixed residential
devices and connections (up from 245 million
in 2013).
Average household will have 3.1 fixed devices
and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).

Latin America Residential Services
By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Social Networking Will Have Highest
Adoption
Note: By 2018, Latin America residential fixed internet population will be 235 million; the number of
Latin America TV households will be 171 million.
CAGR
2013–2018
Online

Music

Social

Networking

Online
Video

Online

Gaming

VoIP

Digital
TV

Video
on

Demand

Time
Delayed
TV

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2018 % Adoption

Residential Services
Implications / Opportunities
Residential Market Dynamics
Residential Opportunities
for Service Providers
•  More / new connections
•  Preference for mobility
•  Need to monetize increased
network demand
•  Extend content / service
reach across new devices
and connections
•  Partner and form new eco-
systems with OTTPs
•  Develop Wi-Fi / mobility
plans
•  Bolster service portfolio
with value-added IoE /
M2M applications

Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 4.8 billion consumer mobile
users (64% of population).
There will be 8.9 billion consumer mobile
devices and connections.
Average consumer mobile user will have
1.8 mobile devices and connections (up
from 1.5 in 2013).

Global Consumer Mobile Services
By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest;
Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR
2013–2018
Note: By 2018, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.8 billion.
MMS

Mobile
Social

Networking

Mobile

Email

Consumer

LBS

Mobile
Gaming

Mobile
Banking

&
Commerce

Mobile

Video

Mobile
Music

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%

2018
%
Adop+on

Latin America Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:
There will be 450 million consumer
mobile users (69% of population).
There will be 813 million consumer
mobile devices and connections.
Average consumer mobile user will have
1.8 mobile devices and connections (up
from 1.5 in 2013).

Latin America Consumer Mobile Services
By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest;
Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR
2013–2018
Note: By 2018, Latin America consumer mobile population will be 450 million.
MMS
Mobile Social
Networking
Mobile
Email
Consumer LBS
Mobile Gaming
Mobile Banking &
Commerce
Mobile
VideoMobile
Music
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
2018 % Adoption

Consumer Mobile
Consumer Mobile Market Dynamics
Consumer Mobile Opportunities
•  More / new devices and
connections
•  Demand for seamless
transition / experience
between fixed and mobile
•  Demand for Wi-Fi offload
and faster speeds
•  Need to monetize increased
network demand
•  Extend reach of traditional /
brick and mortar services
•  Shared data plans
•  Blend service offers with online
services / content
•  Developing / monetizing
Wi-Fi offers
•  Partner with device
manufacturers / content
creators (consider busy /peak
demands)

Global Business Market, by 2018:
There will be 2.1 billion business Internet users
(62% of global work force).
There will be 582 million business mobile users
There will be 3.9 billion business devices and
connections (up from 2.5 billion in 2013).
Average business internet user will have
1.8 devices and connections
There will be 1.4 billion business mobile device
and connections (up from 878 million in 2013).
Average business mobile user will have
2.4 mobile devices and connections

Global Business Services
By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest;
Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR
2013–2018
Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business
mobile users will be 582 million.
SMS
Mobile Email
Room Based Video
Conferencing
IP Telephony
Business LBS
Audio
Conferencing
Desktop Video
Conferencing
Web Conferencing
w/o Video
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%
2018 % Adoption

Latin America Business Market, by 2018:
There will be 205 million business Internet users
There will be 59 million business mobile users
There will be 296 million business devices and
connections (up from 205 million in 2013).
Average business internet user will have
1.4 devices and connections
There will be 134 million business mobile device
and connections (up from 90 million in 2013).
Average business mobile user will have
2.3 mobile devices and connections

Latin America Business Services
By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest;
Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR
2013–2018
Note: By 2018, Latin America business Internet population will be 205 million; the number of
business mobile users will be 59 million.
SMS
Mobile
EmailRoom Based
Video Conferencing
IP
Telephony
Business
LBS
Audio
Conferencing
Desktop Video
Conferencing
Web Conferencing
w/o Video
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110%
2018 % Adoption

Business Services
Business Market Dynamics
Business Segment Opportunities
•  More / new devices and
connections—growing
demand for BYOD
•  Low penetration of
mobile devices
•  Growing demand for service
transition from fixed to mobile
•  Premium security
•  Enhance productivity, customer
support
•  Cloud services and storage—
network, computing,
infrastructure
•  Offer vertical specific IoE /
M2M services
•  Blending and bundling with
other services

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic
Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour
Traffic
(Gbps)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Hour
Busy Hour
28% CAGR
23% CAGR

Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (LATAM)
Traffic
(Gbps)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Hour
Busy Hour
26% CAGR
20% CAGR

Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (Brazil)
Traffic
(Gbps)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Hour
Busy Hour
24% CAGR
19% CAGR

Busy Hour versus Average Hour
Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018
Ratio of
Busy Hour
to Average
Hour Traffic
2.7
2.5 2.5
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.6
3.3 3.2 3.2
3.5 3.4
2.9
3.2
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Global
APAC
LATAM
NA
WE
CEE
MEA

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

1.3B
4.7B
0.7B
5B
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices
IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices
Globally, By 2018, Nearly 50% (10B) of all fixed and
mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable,
up from 16% (2B) in 2013
37% CAGR
Number
of Devices
(B)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018

0.05B
0.3B
0.1B
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices
IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices
0.5B
In LATAM: By 2018, Nearly 49% (0.8B) of all fixed and
mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable,
up from 15% (0.1B) in 2013
39% CAGR
Number
of Devices
(B)

794 Million by 2018
142 Million in 2013
41% CAGR
North America
2 Billion by 2018
367 Million in 2013
40% CAGR
IPv6-Capable Fixed/Mobile Devices Forecast, 2013-2018
Western Europe
2 Billion by 2018
445 Million in 2013
31% CAGR
Asia Pacific
4 Billion by 2018
760 Million in 2013
37% CAGR
Latin America
821 Million by 2018
160 Million in 2013
39% CAGR
702 Million by 2018
151 Million in 2013
36% CAGR

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile
Globally, More Mobile than Fixed Users Are Impacted by Usage Limits
Country
% Broadband HH
> 250 GB
% Mobile Users
> 2 GB
Global 2.1% 3.8%
North America 4.7% 21.6%
Western Europe 1.6% 9.5%
Asia Pacific 1.8% 2.3%
Central and Eastern Europe 1.3% 0.9%
Latin America 2.4% 1.0%
Middle East and Africa 0.1% 1.0%

Cisco VNI Web Sites
•  Press Release
•  White Papers / FAQs
•  Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps
IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com
Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: ask-vnisa@cisco.com
IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni
Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa

World Cup Traffic Estimate: Nearly 70 TB
30,000 passengers
on daily commuter
trains for one hour
would generate over
30 terabytes of
Internet traffic.
30,000 passengers
on multiple 7-hour
flights round-trip
would generate over
12 terabytes of
Internet traffic.
60,000 spectators in
Itaquerão Stadium
for 120 hours
would generate over
25 terabytes of
Internet traffic.

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

North America
1.7-fold Growth
12%
Latin America
6.7-fold Growth
5%
Western Europe
1.7-fold Growth
7%
2.1-fold Growth
1%
2-fold Growth
40%
Asia Pacific
1.8-fold Growth
42%
Fiber to the Home (FTTH) Connection Penetration
Japan and South Korea to Have 82% and 71% FTTH/B by 2018

1
Network Demand/Use
2
M2M Growth Drives
the Reality of IoE
3
Broadband Speeds:
Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4
Wi-Fi Dominates
Access Technology
5
6
7
8
Peak versus Average
IP Traffic Growth
9
Global Adoption
10

Growing Definition of Global Internet Video
Ultra-HD Internet Video Will Account for 8% of Traffic in 2018
Petabytes
per Month
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.05%, 8%)
High Def (HD) Video (24%, 46%)
Standard Def (SD) Video (76%, 46%)
30% CAGR 2013–2018

Internet Video
Micro Video Making an Impact; Asia Leads Long Form Video Viewing
0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%
85% 83%
23% 21%
51%
75% 75%
11% 7%
77% 78%
36%
18% 22%
4% 7% 0% 1%
13% 6% 2%
0%
100%
3%
13%
6% 1% 5%
13% 9%
95%
84%
37% 40%
82%
79% 85%
2% 3%
58% 59%
12% 7% 6%
0% 1%
0% 0% 2% 1% 0%
0%
100%
Share of Video Minutes Share of Videos Viewed

Netflix — U.S. and Global
Long Form Video Subscription Site Generates 22 PB per Day
Netflix is video subscription service featuring
long-form, professionally produced content.
Netflix users view almost 13 billion minutes of
video per month on PCs alone, with additional
viewing on other platforms, resulting in over 22
petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
The bulk of Netflix viewing is TV-based.
22 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC

FC2 — Japan
Video Sharing Site Generates 18 PB per Day
FC2 is a video-sharing site in Japan. Historically
it has been known to allow “controversial”
content, including pirated videos.
FC2 users view almost 36 billion minutes of
video per month, resulting in over 18 petabytes
per day of Internet traffic.
FC2 ranks #2 globally for overall traffic. 18 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC

Youku Tudou — China
Online Video Site Generates 17 PB per Day
Youku Tudou is China’s largest online video site,
the result of a merger of Youku and Tudou in
2012. Content on Youku was initally user-
generated, but the company is now focused on
professionally produced videos, licensed from
over 1,500 content partners.
Youku Tudou users view almost 35 billion
minutes of video per month, resulting in over 17
petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Youku Tudou ranks #3 globally for overall traffic.
SERVICE
TRAFFIC

Niconico (Dwango) — Japan
Social Video Sharing Site Generates 15 PB per Day
Niconico is a video-sharing site with strong social
viewing features. Video tags are crowd-sourced
and overlaid onto the video.
Niconico has 25 million users who view almost
32 billion minutes of video per month, resulting
in over 15 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Niconico ranks #2 in Japan and #4 globally for
overall video minutes, as well as traffic.
SERVICE
TRAFFIC

QQLive (Tencent)—China
Live Social Television Application Generates 5 PB per Day
Tencent’s QQLive is a live video streaming
application. QQLive provides two modes to view,
community mode and player mode. Community
mode integrates chat room and forum.
QQLive has 200 million users who view almost
20 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in
over 5 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Tencent/QQLive ranks #5 in China and #9
globally for overall traffic.
5 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC

Ustream – U.S.
Live and Ambient Video Site Generates 2 PB per Day
Ustream is a live video-sharing site.
Contributors can use Ustream to broadcast
events, games, and other content, live.
SERVICE
Ustream has 15 million users who view 2 billion
minutes of video per month, resulting in over
2 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Ustream ranks #16 globally for overall traffic.
TRAFFIC
2 Petabytes per Day

Twitch Media—U.S.
Online Spectator Gaming Site Generates 1 PB per Day
Twitch is a live video-sharing site for gamers.
Spectators can tune in to watch contributors
playing games in real time.
Twitch has 45 million users who view almost
5 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in
over 1 petabyte per day of Internet traffic.
Twitch ranks #10 in the US, #11 in the UK for
overall video minutes, and #18 globally.
Twitch ranks #16 globally for number of
videos viewed, and #30 for total traffic generated.
1 Petabyte per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC

VNI, Informacion America Latina, Junio 11, 2014

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