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ABOUT COMPUSCAN
ABOUT US




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan Information Technologies


    We combine trusted advice, information, world-class analytics and innovative
            applications to help you make smart business decisions.



     •   Established in 1994
     •   We collect, validate, load, verify, house and distribute consumer credit
         information
     •   We are a recognised market leader in developing markets
     •   We partner with organisations and businesses around Africa to establish and
         strengthen customer relationships and provide businesses with a competitive
         advantage
     •   We strive for innovative and quality products
     •   200 staff members
     •   BBBEE rating of Level 4 + value add supplier




www.compuscan.co.za
Our Markets


                                                        Compuscan received a tender in 2010
                                                        to provide a consumer and business
                                                        credit information bureau in Ethiopia.




           In Botswana microlenders have to
           register with the MLA and only once
           the Compuscan installation is                 In 2006 Compuscan was selected by
           completed do they get issued with a           the Bank of Uganda to build the first-
           license of trade.                             ever Ugandan credit reference bureau
                                                         and biometric identity smart card
                                                         system.
In Namibia microlenders are mandated
by NAMFISA and the MLA to subscribe
to Compuscan.


           Compuscan South Africa
           collects, validates, loads, verifies, hous
           es and distributes consumer credit
           information.




   www.compuscan.co.za
ScoreSharp



Specialised credit risk management consultancy focused on providing scoring,
analytical and consulting solutions.

•   Established June 2007
•   Started by 4 industry professionals with combined 50+ years risk management
    experience
•   Local and international experience

Solutions include:

•   Data Analytics
•   Predictive Modelling
•   Consulting
•   Software Services




www.compuscan.co.za
OUR PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
CONSUMER EDUCATION
Compuscan IT
                                    Prospecting
                                        and
                                     Marketing




                                       Credit      Customer
                      Collections
                                    Bureau Data   Acquisition




                                     Customer
                                    Management




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan IT
Credit Bureau Data:


    •   Accounts data & repayment information from entire population
           • Full CPA file from 2007 (+/- 50 million accounts updated monthly)
           • NLR information (+/- 8 million accounts updated monthly)
           • Compuscan microloan (+/- 3 million accounts updated monthly)
    •   Adverse/Default Data
    •   Public domain information: Judgements, administration orders, sequestrations,
        liquidations, rescindments, default/adverse orders (+/- 1.5 million annually)
    •   Contact information
    •   Previous enquiries
    •   Debt restructuring information
    •   Disputes information
    •   Deeds/property information
    •   Identification/contact information
    •   Collections information
    •   Fraud/SAFPS information




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan IT
Data Statistics:

  Variable                     Amount
  Consumers on file            47 514 034 million
  Addresses                    128 454 529 million
  Telephone Numbers            96 773 698 million
  Employee Information         24 501 332 million
  SAFPS Listings               40 165
  Active CPA Accounts          46 909 042 million
  NLR Accounts                 9 993 723 million
  Enquiries per month          941 334 million

  Statistics dated: 18 October 2012




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan IT
  Prospecting & Marketing:




   Marketing Information Services: By combining propensity-to-purchase, response
   models, bureau screening and credit scoring criteria we can assist you to profile
   potential clients.

   Prolinx: Prolinx is a loan portal linking originators, credit providers and consumers.
   It offers benefits for credit providers, microlenders and originators. For more
   information, visit www.prolinx.co.za




www.compuscan.co.za
Marketing Information Services

                                   Propensity to purchase


                                    Response models


                                     Bureau screening


                                   Credit scoring criteria




                                      Prequalified leads




www.compuscan.co.za
Prolinx
 Prolinx is an online portal which broadens the market-place for microlenders and gives
 them the ability to partner with larger credit providers who have the capital necessary to
 provide long-term loans thus positioning microlenders as financial
 intermediaries, enabling them to offer larger loans to their client base.

 It offers benefits for:

            •   Credit Providers
                Credit providers disburse their loan products to as many customers as
                possible.
            •   Microlenders
                Microlenders can earn commission by offering loans risk free on behalf of
                multiple finance houses.
            •   Originators
                Originators have contact with the end consumer and mediate between
                consumer and credit provider.




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan IT
Customer Acquisition:

Credit Check: Credit Check provides direct online and offline access
to Compuscan’s comprehensive credit bureau database.

Xcelerator: With Xcelerator you can automate the entire credit
application cycle by employing workflow techniques which control and monitor each
stage of the application process.

CompuScore A: (Application) CompuScore A was created for risk assessment
at the customer acquisition stage.

Codix: Codix is a decision making tool which takes your specific business rules for
each loan product into account and provides you with recommended actions for
each of your loan products.

Codix Lite: Codix Lite is an effective decision making solution for smaller unsecured
loan providers.




www.compuscan.co.za
Credit Check



    •   Provides direct online and offline access to a comprehensive credit
        bureau database of consumers (50 + million ID’s , 18.5 million credit
        active consumers, over 60 million accounts).
    •   Submit and receive credit information through a method of choice,
               - Web front-end
               - Integration into various packages through DLL’s or web services
               - CPU – CPU
    •   Can link to CompuWatch to monitor your borrower’s movements in real-
        time.
                - Get alerts everytime your borrowers enquire at other institutions
                  or have changes made to their credit portfolio.




www.compuscan.co.za
Xcelerator

  The Process:




               Xcelerator
                                External Credit   Links to Codix to     Prints pre-
               checks for                                                             Prints final
                                   Check is           calculate         agreement
              existing client                                                         agreement
                                  conducted       creditworthiness    documentation
                   data




www.compuscan.co.za
CompuScore A
(Application Bureau Score )

                              •   Bureau loan application scorecard

                              •   3 digit score used as a credit risk
                                  assessment tool to predict the
                                  probability of payment default at
                                  acquisition stage

                              •   Takes all aspects of CPA, NLR, CS
                                  loans, credit history and both
                                  positive and negative information
                                  into consideration

                              •   Predicts probability of a default
                                  occurring in 12 months of an
                                  account opening

                              •   Predicts acceptance rate at a
                                  particular score cut off




www.compuscan.co.za
Codix




                      •   Takes your business rules into account
                          for each loan product
                      •   Is calibrated to your data
                      •   Automatically filters through credit
                          bureau information
                      •   Displays a concise summary with
                          recommended actions




www.compuscan.co.za
Codix – Example Rules




www.compuscan.co.za
Codix Lite in a Nutshell




                           •   Codix Lite is a scoring solution for smaller
                               or emerging unsecured loan providers.
                           •   Codix is calibrated to your data, but with
                               Codix Lite the calibration process is
                               performed on a random industry sample
                               (of NLR accounts with terms between 1-6
                               months) and not on your own loan book.




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan IT



 Customer Management:

 Proloan: Proloan provides you with a complete loan servicing, management, tracking
 and collection software platform to manage the entire loan cycle.

 Compuloan: Compuloan is an enhanced loan management system offering a
 centralised database linking all your business branches which allows for a range of
 reporting options.

 Both Proloan and Compuloan are NCR compliant, integrated into various payment
 gateways, submits data to NLR/CPA , statistical compliance reporting etc.

 Credit Life Insurance: Compuscan, in collaboration with various credit life
 providers, offers you Credit Life Insurance which takes care of any outstanding debt the
 borrower/policy holder may leave behind.




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan IT




 Customer Management:

 Biometrix: We offer integrated solutions for customer and employee identification and
 verification in the form of biometric applications which provides your business with the
 highest security and best possible solution to keep track of your borrowers.

 CompuWatch: CompuWatch gives you the power to monitor your debtors’ movements
 throughout the credit industry and be alerted to changes to their credit profile in
 real-time.

 CompuScore B: CompuScore B is a Behavioral score used in the ongoing management
 of customers throughout their credit life-cycle.




www.compuscan.co.za
Proloan
  Proloan manages the entire loan cycle and ranges from capturing new business to
  performing collections on outstanding loans.

 Functionalities include:

 •   Utilises biometrics to identify applicants
 •   Capturing of new business
 •   Integration with Compuscan Credit Check
 •   Generates all documentation
 •   Communicates with clients regarding payment
 •   Performs collections on outstanding loans
 •   Generates management reports
 •   Integrates with Credit Life Insurance
 •   Modularised
 •   SMS and bad debt module
 •   Payroll collections exporter
 •   Integrated into:
       • ALLPS- Fully integrated
       • Inso123 – Fully integrated on Individual Payment Instructions
       • Realpay – Fully integrated
       • NuPay - Loan Creations, Nupay Batch Receipt Processing

www.compuscan.co.za
CompuLoan
  CompuLoan, Compuscan’s advanced loan management system provides a centralised
  database, linking all your branches which allows for a range of reporting options.

 Functionalities include:

 •   Centralised database
 •   Origination module
 •   Advanced reporting
 •   Ensures NCR compliance
 •   Enhanced security features
 •   Provides detailed loan history
 •   Flexible loan product management
 •   Bad debt management functionality
 •   Numerous integrations including bureau, biometrix and ALLPS
 •   Automated cost and interest rate calculator
 •   Supports single cash box and multiple pay points
 •   Audited accounting system
 •   Supports multiple loan products
 •   Schedule batch receipts
 •   User friendly interface



www.compuscan.co.za
Credit Life Insurance




  Protect the credit you extend.

  •   Protect borrowers from unforeseen events
  •   Earn commission
  •   Increased profitability
  •   Amount of the policy matches the loan
      balance – ensuring the loan will be repaid
      in full
  •   Offered by Compuscan in collaboration
      with Real People




www.compuscan.co.za
Biometrix



 Identity theft costs the South African economy around
 R1 billion each year. By making use of
 our integrated solutions for customer and employee
 verification you can be confident in the knowledge that
 your business will not be identity theft’s next victim.

 Benefits include:

 •   Know Your Clients
 •   Enhance Your Security Levels
 •   Combat Fraud
 •   Improve Efficiency
 •   Easily Integrated
 •   Cost-Effective




www.compuscan.co.za
CompuWatch




  Monitor your debtors’ movements
  in the credit industry.

  1. Submit debtor file to Compuscan
     run against defined HIT rules
  2. Matches returned in pre-arranged
     format.
  3. Non-HITs loaded on Trace
     database for real-time monitoring
     through CompuWatch: Alert &
     Triggers
  4. Hits returned & removed from
     Trace. Additional debtor files
     added




www.compuscan.co.za
CompuScore B




 •   A behavioural score for use in
     the ongoing management of
     customers throughout credit
     life cycle.
 •   Developed to predict ongoing
     default risk in a 12 month
     outcome period.
 •   Development sample was
     created using customers
     having open CPA and NLR
     accounts at specific
     observation points.




www.compuscan.co.za
Compuscan IT



                      Collections:

                      Trace Services: With Compuscan’s up-to-date
                      consumer data and powerful trace and alert tools you
                      can take early action by tracing, monitoring and
                      locating debtors.

                      CompuScore C: CompuScore C was developed to
                      predict the probability of receiving payment on overdue
                      accounts based on key performance indicators on the
                      Compuscan credit bureau.




www.compuscan.co.za
Trace Services




 Locate consumers quickly and easily with Compuscan’s Trace Services which
 provides updated consumer identity and contact information. This information
 can be received via batch or through Compuscan’s advanced online Trace
 application.

 Consumers not found on the system can be loaded onto a real-time Watchlist
 service that will immediately notify credit providers when any new contact or
 public domain information is received, allowing them to take immediate action.




www.compuscan.co.za
CompuScore C



•   Indicates the probability of
    receiving payment on accounts
    overdue based on bureau
    performance variables.
•   Built for collection books across
    industry types.
•   Overlays collection probably with
    balance due to set collection
    priority.
•   Automated process to receive
    file, add score & deliver output.




www.compuscan.co.za
Skills Training:

Compuscan Academy (CSA), established in 2004, is the sister company of Compuscan, a
South African based credit bureau.

We specialise in the following three training areas:

•   Credit & Microfinance Skills Training
•   Business & Personal Development Training
•   Personal Computer Skills Training

Our services include the following:

•   Design & Development of Training Programs: CSA has an in-house research and
    development department responsible for design and development of all our skills training
    programmes. We strive to offer a customised solution and believe it is often the most
    effective.

•   Skills Development Consulting Services: We assist companies to identify existing skills
    in their organisations and any skills needs. We then put in place training interventions to
    address identified skills gaps.




www.compuscan.co.za
Accreditations

Accredited with BANKSETA
    • Registered Qualification: National Certificate in Micro Finance (Level 3)
    • Registering Qualification: National Certificate in Micro Finance (Level 4)
    • Registered various skills programmes & short courses in credit / micro-finance and
       business skills

Accreditation with Institute of Credit Management (ICM)
    • Delivering National & Advanced Certificates in Credit Management

National Credit Regulator (NCR)
     • Delivering Debt Counselling Training




www.compuscan.co.za
Thank you for your time.

                          Any questions?




www.compuscan.co.za
www.linkedin.com/groups/Compuscan-3700019?gid=3700019




                      www.facebook.com/compuscan




                      www.twitter.com/compuscan




                       www.compuscan.wordpress.com




www.compuscan.co.za

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Compuscan

  • 3. Compuscan Information Technologies We combine trusted advice, information, world-class analytics and innovative applications to help you make smart business decisions. • Established in 1994 • We collect, validate, load, verify, house and distribute consumer credit information • We are a recognised market leader in developing markets • We partner with organisations and businesses around Africa to establish and strengthen customer relationships and provide businesses with a competitive advantage • We strive for innovative and quality products • 200 staff members • BBBEE rating of Level 4 + value add supplier www.compuscan.co.za
  • 4. Our Markets Compuscan received a tender in 2010 to provide a consumer and business credit information bureau in Ethiopia. In Botswana microlenders have to register with the MLA and only once the Compuscan installation is In 2006 Compuscan was selected by completed do they get issued with a the Bank of Uganda to build the first- license of trade. ever Ugandan credit reference bureau and biometric identity smart card system. In Namibia microlenders are mandated by NAMFISA and the MLA to subscribe to Compuscan. Compuscan South Africa collects, validates, loads, verifies, hous es and distributes consumer credit information. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 5. ScoreSharp Specialised credit risk management consultancy focused on providing scoring, analytical and consulting solutions. • Established June 2007 • Started by 4 industry professionals with combined 50+ years risk management experience • Local and international experience Solutions include: • Data Analytics • Predictive Modelling • Consulting • Software Services www.compuscan.co.za
  • 6. OUR PRODUCTS AND SERVICES CONSUMER EDUCATION
  • 7. Compuscan IT Prospecting and Marketing Credit Customer Collections Bureau Data Acquisition Customer Management www.compuscan.co.za
  • 8. Compuscan IT Credit Bureau Data: • Accounts data & repayment information from entire population • Full CPA file from 2007 (+/- 50 million accounts updated monthly) • NLR information (+/- 8 million accounts updated monthly) • Compuscan microloan (+/- 3 million accounts updated monthly) • Adverse/Default Data • Public domain information: Judgements, administration orders, sequestrations, liquidations, rescindments, default/adverse orders (+/- 1.5 million annually) • Contact information • Previous enquiries • Debt restructuring information • Disputes information • Deeds/property information • Identification/contact information • Collections information • Fraud/SAFPS information www.compuscan.co.za
  • 9. Compuscan IT Data Statistics: Variable Amount Consumers on file 47 514 034 million Addresses 128 454 529 million Telephone Numbers 96 773 698 million Employee Information 24 501 332 million SAFPS Listings 40 165 Active CPA Accounts 46 909 042 million NLR Accounts 9 993 723 million Enquiries per month 941 334 million Statistics dated: 18 October 2012 www.compuscan.co.za
  • 10. Compuscan IT Prospecting & Marketing: Marketing Information Services: By combining propensity-to-purchase, response models, bureau screening and credit scoring criteria we can assist you to profile potential clients. Prolinx: Prolinx is a loan portal linking originators, credit providers and consumers. It offers benefits for credit providers, microlenders and originators. For more information, visit www.prolinx.co.za www.compuscan.co.za
  • 11. Marketing Information Services Propensity to purchase Response models Bureau screening Credit scoring criteria Prequalified leads www.compuscan.co.za
  • 12. Prolinx Prolinx is an online portal which broadens the market-place for microlenders and gives them the ability to partner with larger credit providers who have the capital necessary to provide long-term loans thus positioning microlenders as financial intermediaries, enabling them to offer larger loans to their client base. It offers benefits for: • Credit Providers Credit providers disburse their loan products to as many customers as possible. • Microlenders Microlenders can earn commission by offering loans risk free on behalf of multiple finance houses. • Originators Originators have contact with the end consumer and mediate between consumer and credit provider. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 13. Compuscan IT Customer Acquisition: Credit Check: Credit Check provides direct online and offline access to Compuscan’s comprehensive credit bureau database. Xcelerator: With Xcelerator you can automate the entire credit application cycle by employing workflow techniques which control and monitor each stage of the application process. CompuScore A: (Application) CompuScore A was created for risk assessment at the customer acquisition stage. Codix: Codix is a decision making tool which takes your specific business rules for each loan product into account and provides you with recommended actions for each of your loan products. Codix Lite: Codix Lite is an effective decision making solution for smaller unsecured loan providers. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 14. Credit Check • Provides direct online and offline access to a comprehensive credit bureau database of consumers (50 + million ID’s , 18.5 million credit active consumers, over 60 million accounts). • Submit and receive credit information through a method of choice, - Web front-end - Integration into various packages through DLL’s or web services - CPU – CPU • Can link to CompuWatch to monitor your borrower’s movements in real- time. - Get alerts everytime your borrowers enquire at other institutions or have changes made to their credit portfolio. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 15. Xcelerator The Process: Xcelerator External Credit Links to Codix to Prints pre- checks for Prints final Check is calculate agreement existing client agreement conducted creditworthiness documentation data www.compuscan.co.za
  • 16. CompuScore A (Application Bureau Score ) • Bureau loan application scorecard • 3 digit score used as a credit risk assessment tool to predict the probability of payment default at acquisition stage • Takes all aspects of CPA, NLR, CS loans, credit history and both positive and negative information into consideration • Predicts probability of a default occurring in 12 months of an account opening • Predicts acceptance rate at a particular score cut off www.compuscan.co.za
  • 17. Codix • Takes your business rules into account for each loan product • Is calibrated to your data • Automatically filters through credit bureau information • Displays a concise summary with recommended actions www.compuscan.co.za
  • 18. Codix – Example Rules www.compuscan.co.za
  • 19. Codix Lite in a Nutshell • Codix Lite is a scoring solution for smaller or emerging unsecured loan providers. • Codix is calibrated to your data, but with Codix Lite the calibration process is performed on a random industry sample (of NLR accounts with terms between 1-6 months) and not on your own loan book. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 20. Compuscan IT Customer Management: Proloan: Proloan provides you with a complete loan servicing, management, tracking and collection software platform to manage the entire loan cycle. Compuloan: Compuloan is an enhanced loan management system offering a centralised database linking all your business branches which allows for a range of reporting options. Both Proloan and Compuloan are NCR compliant, integrated into various payment gateways, submits data to NLR/CPA , statistical compliance reporting etc. Credit Life Insurance: Compuscan, in collaboration with various credit life providers, offers you Credit Life Insurance which takes care of any outstanding debt the borrower/policy holder may leave behind. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 21. Compuscan IT Customer Management: Biometrix: We offer integrated solutions for customer and employee identification and verification in the form of biometric applications which provides your business with the highest security and best possible solution to keep track of your borrowers. CompuWatch: CompuWatch gives you the power to monitor your debtors’ movements throughout the credit industry and be alerted to changes to their credit profile in real-time. CompuScore B: CompuScore B is a Behavioral score used in the ongoing management of customers throughout their credit life-cycle. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 22. Proloan Proloan manages the entire loan cycle and ranges from capturing new business to performing collections on outstanding loans. Functionalities include: • Utilises biometrics to identify applicants • Capturing of new business • Integration with Compuscan Credit Check • Generates all documentation • Communicates with clients regarding payment • Performs collections on outstanding loans • Generates management reports • Integrates with Credit Life Insurance • Modularised • SMS and bad debt module • Payroll collections exporter • Integrated into: • ALLPS- Fully integrated • Inso123 – Fully integrated on Individual Payment Instructions • Realpay – Fully integrated • NuPay - Loan Creations, Nupay Batch Receipt Processing www.compuscan.co.za
  • 23. CompuLoan CompuLoan, Compuscan’s advanced loan management system provides a centralised database, linking all your branches which allows for a range of reporting options. Functionalities include: • Centralised database • Origination module • Advanced reporting • Ensures NCR compliance • Enhanced security features • Provides detailed loan history • Flexible loan product management • Bad debt management functionality • Numerous integrations including bureau, biometrix and ALLPS • Automated cost and interest rate calculator • Supports single cash box and multiple pay points • Audited accounting system • Supports multiple loan products • Schedule batch receipts • User friendly interface www.compuscan.co.za
  • 24. Credit Life Insurance Protect the credit you extend. • Protect borrowers from unforeseen events • Earn commission • Increased profitability • Amount of the policy matches the loan balance – ensuring the loan will be repaid in full • Offered by Compuscan in collaboration with Real People www.compuscan.co.za
  • 25. Biometrix Identity theft costs the South African economy around R1 billion each year. By making use of our integrated solutions for customer and employee verification you can be confident in the knowledge that your business will not be identity theft’s next victim. Benefits include: • Know Your Clients • Enhance Your Security Levels • Combat Fraud • Improve Efficiency • Easily Integrated • Cost-Effective www.compuscan.co.za
  • 26. CompuWatch Monitor your debtors’ movements in the credit industry. 1. Submit debtor file to Compuscan run against defined HIT rules 2. Matches returned in pre-arranged format. 3. Non-HITs loaded on Trace database for real-time monitoring through CompuWatch: Alert & Triggers 4. Hits returned & removed from Trace. Additional debtor files added www.compuscan.co.za
  • 27. CompuScore B • A behavioural score for use in the ongoing management of customers throughout credit life cycle. • Developed to predict ongoing default risk in a 12 month outcome period. • Development sample was created using customers having open CPA and NLR accounts at specific observation points. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 28. Compuscan IT Collections: Trace Services: With Compuscan’s up-to-date consumer data and powerful trace and alert tools you can take early action by tracing, monitoring and locating debtors. CompuScore C: CompuScore C was developed to predict the probability of receiving payment on overdue accounts based on key performance indicators on the Compuscan credit bureau. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 29. Trace Services Locate consumers quickly and easily with Compuscan’s Trace Services which provides updated consumer identity and contact information. This information can be received via batch or through Compuscan’s advanced online Trace application. Consumers not found on the system can be loaded onto a real-time Watchlist service that will immediately notify credit providers when any new contact or public domain information is received, allowing them to take immediate action. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 30. CompuScore C • Indicates the probability of receiving payment on accounts overdue based on bureau performance variables. • Built for collection books across industry types. • Overlays collection probably with balance due to set collection priority. • Automated process to receive file, add score & deliver output. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 31. Skills Training: Compuscan Academy (CSA), established in 2004, is the sister company of Compuscan, a South African based credit bureau. We specialise in the following three training areas: • Credit & Microfinance Skills Training • Business & Personal Development Training • Personal Computer Skills Training Our services include the following: • Design & Development of Training Programs: CSA has an in-house research and development department responsible for design and development of all our skills training programmes. We strive to offer a customised solution and believe it is often the most effective. • Skills Development Consulting Services: We assist companies to identify existing skills in their organisations and any skills needs. We then put in place training interventions to address identified skills gaps. www.compuscan.co.za
  • 32. Accreditations Accredited with BANKSETA • Registered Qualification: National Certificate in Micro Finance (Level 3) • Registering Qualification: National Certificate in Micro Finance (Level 4) • Registered various skills programmes & short courses in credit / micro-finance and business skills Accreditation with Institute of Credit Management (ICM) • Delivering National & Advanced Certificates in Credit Management National Credit Regulator (NCR) • Delivering Debt Counselling Training www.compuscan.co.za
  • 33. Thank you for your time. Any questions? www.compuscan.co.za
  • 34. www.linkedin.com/groups/Compuscan-3700019?gid=3700019 www.facebook.com/compuscan www.twitter.com/compuscan www.compuscan.wordpress.com www.compuscan.co.za

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Compuscore Bcan be used for the on-going management of customers throughout their credit life-cycle. Ultimately it was developed to predict the on-going default risk in a 12 month outcome period which allows credit providers to constantly monitor the risk of debtors and take appropriate action.