1. Ukraine Crisis: European Energy Wake Up Call?
Dr Cyril Widdershoven
BD Manager MENA Oil & Gas
TNO Energy
Cyril.widdershoven@tno.nl
0031-6-53819265

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OPINIONS ARE NOT
BASED ON TNO RESEARCH
BUT SOLELY FROM AUTHOR!
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6. Why do we bother about Ukraine?
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8. Russian Gas Pipelines Europe
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9. Russian Non-Ukraine Strategy to Europe
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10. Ukraine Totally Depend on Russian Gas Supply
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11. European Gas Imports Picture
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12. EU Russian Gas Consumption and Dependency
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13. Analysts: Options/Costs Russian-EU Gas Crisis
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14. Realism to Prevail: Direct Substitution NO OPTION!
EU-28 gas boycot Russian imports unfeasible
Costs are too high, even that Russia will be hit harder!
Replacement not available on short term
Infrastructure not available for EU-28
Gas storage options only feasible NW-Europe/Spain
Eastern EU member countries still to be hit extremely
North Africa-Caspian options available but not on short term
West Africa-East Africa in future?
IRAN TO BE NEXT MAIN SUBSTITUTE? TO BE CONSIDERED!
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15. Available Options/Reserves/Production
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16. EU Energy Strategy to be Changed!
EU Energy Strategy non-functional at present
Nationalism prevails above European liberalisation and energy
strategy
German Energie Wende shows trend towards destabilisation EU
energy markets
EU needs One Foreign Energy Strategy for all
- strategy needed to attract as one economic block new partners for
diversification supplies
- strategy needed to support import increase and domestic supply (shale
gas?)
Realism should be there to understand that Energy = International Politics
= Security
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17. Geopolitics at Present to Rule!
EU-Russia (Gazprom) conflict brooming due to geopolitical issues
Russian geopol based on old Russian dream of ‘Grand Empire’
Gazprom (and all others) pawn in Putin’s energy politics
In contrast to EU-US politicians (Schroder-Blair-Bush) views on Putin,
latter is no democratic liberal, but old-fashioned ex-KGB politician
Krim issue only first step in Russian Chess Game
Follows NATO-US unability to support Georgia before
Potential new targets EU member-countries and NATO members
Estland-Letland-Lithuania.
Possibility of Article 5 issue
Current crisis Eastern Ukraine needs to be solved. If not, ….!
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18. Outcome Negative for Western Geopolitical
Influence
If NATO-EU is not effective in containing Russian expansion more is
to follow
Washington’s inability to step into Middle East Arab Spring Arena
already has eroded Western influence Arab countries
Pax Americana could be substituted by Pax Russia
Arab countries (including North Africa) are not positive about
Western support anymore
Currently international arena tends to ‘Follow the Leader” principle
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19. Great Game All Over Again? History Repeats Itself!
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20. For questions, please contact:
BD Manager MENA Oil & Gas
Dr Cyril Widdershoven
Cyril.widdershoven@tno.nl
+31 6 53819265
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