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Reliability Engineering
Fred Schenkelberg
fms@fmsreliability.com
MEASURING RELIABILITY TO
IMPROVE SAFETY AND
AVAILABILITY
Day 1 Session 5
Objectives
• Reliability and the bathtub curve
• Calculating PDF plot
• What to do if you don’t have data at failure
mode level
• Measuring reliability of Line Replaceable Units
• Developing the next generation reliability
growth analysis
Early Life Failures
Decreasing hazard rate
Typical failure causes
• Manufacturing defect
• Shipping damage
• Installation damage
Useful Life
Constant hazard rate
Typical failure causes
• Overstress
• Random events
Note: rarely occurs in real
life – may be useful if
change in hazard rate is
small enough
Wear out
Increasing hazard rate
Typical failure causes
• Material wear
• Rust/Oxidation
• Creep/Crack growth
• Embrittlement
Discussion & Questions
Probability Distribution Plot
• Like a histogram
• Construction notes
• Continuous distributions
• Discrete distributions
f (x)dx = Pr a £ X £ b[ ]a
b
ò
f x( )= Pr X = x[ ]
How to use PDF plot
• Probability plots
• How many will survive
• How many will fail
Discussion & Questions
Data and Level
• Failure mechanism level
• Subunit level (LRU)
• Unit Level
• System level
Plots and levels
• CDF with system and
subunit information
• Continuous Distributions
• Discrete Distributions
F x( )= f m( )dm
-¥
¥
ò
F x( )= f i( )
i=0
x
å
time
ProbabilityofFailure(logscale)
Repairable Equipment
• MCF example
• How to interpret
– Concave
– Convex
– Straight
Time
CumulativeFailures
Discussion & Questions
Reliability Growth
• CDF reflecting changes
• Look for change in slope
• Look for change in scale
time
ProbabilityofFailure(logscale)
or
Cumulative Failures over time
• During development or
improvement projects
• Plot total failures over
time (more later with
Duane and related
plots)
Discussion & Questions
Summary
• Reliability and the bathtub
curve
• Calculating PDF plot
• What to do if you don’t
have data at failure mode
level
• Measuring reliability of
Line Replaceable Units
• Developing the next
generation reliability
growth analysis
Measuring Reliability to improve
Safety and Availability

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Reliability Maintenance Engineering 1 - 5 Measuring Reliability

Editor's Notes

  1. Bathtub curve
  2. Balance between investment and value
  3. PDF Plots
  4. The formula for the probability density function of the general Weibull distribution iswhere is the shape parameter, is the location parameter and is the scale parameter. The case where = 0 and = 1 is called the standard Weibull distribution. The case where = 0 is called the 2-parameter Weibull distribution. The equation for the standard Weibull distribution reduces to
  5. Balance between investment and value
  6. Repair data analysis
  7. Cdf with some subsystems underneath
  8. Balance between investment and value
  9. Cdf with some subsystems underneath
  10. Balance between investment and value