2009. Gerald Kogler and Janez Uranic. Banking in CEE – a deeper insight into banking in Slovenia. CEE-Wirtschaftsforum 2009. Forum Velden.
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The document summarizes presentations given by Gerald Kogler of Ernst & Young Austria and Janez Uranic of Ernst & Young Slovenia on banking in Central and Eastern Europe. It discusses the exposure of Austrian banks in CEE countries, including investments and loan exposure. It also provides an overview of the banking sectors and impacts of the financial crisis in Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Croatia. For Slovenia specifically, it discusses the structure of the financial system, risks, and the impacts of credit risk on banks in expecting increased impairment charges.
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Similaire à 2009. Gerald Kogler and Janez Uranic. Banking in CEE – a deeper insight into banking in Slovenia. CEE-Wirtschaftsforum 2009. Forum Velden.
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2009. Gerald Kogler and Janez Uranic. Banking in CEE – a deeper insight into banking in Slovenia. CEE-Wirtschaftsforum 2009. Forum Velden.
- 8. Earnings and profitability in 2007/2008 18.09.09 Source: IMF, National Central Banks, OeNB in % SK CZ PL HU BG RO HR UA RU
- 9. Quality of credits in 2008 18.09.09 Source: IMF, National Central Banks, OeNB Non-performing loans and depreciations in % of the total loans at 2008
- 10. Development in CEE Countries Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia
- 12. GDP Growth in CEE countries 18.09.09
- 14. Inflation in CEE countries 18.09.09
- 16. Banking sector in CEE 18.09.09
- 21. Banking in Slovenia – credit risk Janez Uranič
- 27. Financial Instruments Recognition and Measurement Replacement of IAS 39
- 34. Thank you
Notes de l'éditeur
- The depreciation of local currencies is due to foreign currency debt (in the last year a significant item of the CEE region). Negative impact of the local currency – foreign currency loan represent an important risk factor – also worldwide seen. 2009 (March): consumer loans of 173 billion EUR – 85 billion EUR in foreign currency. Forecasting institutions = IMF
- The HYPO Group (GE) and Bank Austria (Italy) do not belong to the Austrian banks. 24% amounts to the balance of commission earnings (Provisionserträge) Loan receivables of Austrian banks are high in the CEE
- BA = Bosnien Herzegowina December 2008 The chart only represents Austrian subisdiaries with an aggregated total asset of 1 billion EUR. The size of the bubble depends on the total exposure of the Austrian banking system to the particular country.
- The depreciation of currencies and also the recession increased the credit risk for the banking sector The profitability (measured at RoE and RoA) in the banking sector is in most of the countries declining. The risk aversion at the international financial markets has increased facing CEE countries. Der ROE zeigt die Verzinsung des von den Aktionären im Unternehmen eingesetzten Kapitals auf. Er kann durch die Kapitalstruktur der Bank stark beeinflusst werden: Eine Bank mit einer geringeren Eigenkapitaldecke hat bei gleichem Gewinn im Vergleich zu einer Bank mit mehr Eigenkapital automatisch einen höheren ROE. RoE approximately 1% RoA - - - 7%
- In the last quarter of 2008 the total exposure of loans (local and foreign) to private households and companies came to a standstill in the most of the countries (except Bulgaria and Croatia), in einigen Ländern sank das ausstehende Kreditvolumen sogar. Die grenzüberschreitenden Unternehmenskredite gingen in allen Ländern mit Ausnahme Kroatiens zurück. Die inländischen Unternehmenskredite verringerten sich in der Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania und Russia, die Kredite an private Haushalte in Romania, Russia und Ukraine. Wo diese inländischen Kreditaggregate nicht sanken, schwächte sich ihr Wachstum deutlich ab (mit der Ausnahme Kroatiens, wo auch regulatorische Lockerungen wirkten). Generell dürften für diese Kreditentwicklung sowohl nachfrage- als auch angebotsseitige Faktoren verantwortliche sein. Ende 2008 überstieg das ausstehende Kreditvolumen jenes der Einlagen (gemessen an den gesamten Aktiva) in besonders hohem Ausmaß in Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine. Hingegen erreichten in der Slovakia and Czech Republic die Einlagen ein größeres Volumen als die Kredite. Vor allem in Romania und Ukraine in geringerem Maße auch in Hungary und Bulgaria halten die Banken weiterhin hohe Netto-Auslandsverbindlichkeiten, die primär gegenüber ausländischen Mutterbanken bestehen . Die Währungsabwertungen und vor allem die Rezession erhöhten das Kreditrisiko für die Bankensektoren. Ende 2008 war der Anteil der notleidenden Kredit in allen hier betrachteten Ländern (mit Ausnahme Polens) größer als Ende 2007, mit besonders starkem Anstieg in Rumänien.
- For 2009 the stagnation and recession is predicted by the IMF. The greatest change of the GDP growth rate is in Romania, where the deepest recession in the CEE region is to be excpected (IMF).
- Czech Republic: In 2008 real GDP growth slowed noticeably from 4.4% in the first quarter to 0.2% in the last quarter. The Czech Republic also realized a negative stock change. Slovakia is seen as one of the few CESEE countries avoiding stagnation/recession. The annual growth of domestic credit to the nongovernment nonbank sector declined to 15.4% in December 2008 (from 25.3% in April) mainly due to a drastic slowdown in corporate credit growth. Hungary: Since October 2008 Hungary has been affected severely by the global financial crisis. The government bond market became illiquid at the beginning of October 2008. Lending by domestic banks came to a standstill (adjusted for valuation effects, including exchange rate changes). Croatia: The GDP growth declined from 4.3% in the first to only 0.2% in the final quarter of 2008. This development came mainly on the back of marekd slowdown of private consumption.
- This is a predetermined divider slide and should not be modified
- Czech Republic: Since the beginning of 2008 inflation continuously declined. The inflation rate relevant for CNB monetary policy, dropped well below the inflation target of 3%. Slovakia: HICP inflation declined from 4.5% in September 2008 to 2.4% in February 2009. The introduction of the euro seems to have had little impact on general price developments so far. Hungary: As a result of the economic downturn and helped by base effects, inflation declined considerably in recent months (to 2.9% year on year in February 2009, from around 7% in mid-2008). The weak economic environment seems to have helped contain the pass-through to inflation of the sharp weakening of the forint over the past few months Croatia: Inflation accelerated to 4.2% in February 2009, mainly due to tax regulated price adjustments, but the recent depreciation of the kuna may have played some role too.
- This is a predetermined divider slide and should not be modified
- Inflation declined since the beginning of 2008 Changes to indirect taxes Lowered key interest rate in November 2008 On the revenue side, tax burden will be gradually lowered and tax system will be simplified. Reduced personal and corporate taxation along with transparent and business-friendly tax administration are the main factors supporting economic growth. In coming years, growth in tax revenues will decelerate due to a cooling of the Czech economy.
- Tweedie speech to the ECOFIN (9 June) The IASB has acted on each of the four issues raised by the European Commission, on behalf of member states and EU stakeholders, in the fourth quarter of last year. The Commission called for a standard-setting response on the following issues: (1) the need for guidance about fair value measurement in illiquid markets; (2) the desire for clarification regarding whether credit derivative obligations (CDOs) include embedded derivatives to ensure consistency between IFRSs and US GAAP; (3) the existing impairment rules related to available-for-sale instruments; and (4) the possibility of reclassification out of the fair value option into other categories. we have completed work on fair value in illiquid markets. We are working with the US standard-setter, the FASB, to ensure consistency in the accounting of embedded derivatives. This will entail a FASB clarification to be in place for 2009 financials. This leaves us with the issues of the impairment rules and reclassification out of the fair value option. These are the issues, particularly the impairment issue, where the Council recommended urgent action. Our original plan, based upon significant input from stakeholders in Europe and elsewhere, was to resolve these two issues through a comprehensive revision of IAS 39. This has always been a priority. The recent US FASB Staff Positions (FSPs) regarding fair value measurement and impairment caused the IASB to accelerate the timing of the approach announced on 1 April. We have now prioritised – in advance of other topics covered in the IAS 39 replacement – the portion of the comprehensive project concerning classification, measurement, and related impairment issues. We believe that our approach is a superior one to one that would merely adopt the US FASB Staff Position on impairment for the following reasons. First and foremost, our work on impairment directly addresses the specific nature of EU concerns. Second, our approach responds directly to the G20 call for reduced complexity. The proposal will see a much needed reduction of the number of categories of financial assets and will leave us with only one impairment method.
- The objective of classification is to ensure that FI are allocated to measurement categories in such a way that the resulting information is useful to users. That means information should assist in assessing the amounts, timing and uncertainty of future cash flows.