Polling results for 11 swing ridings leading up to the 2015 federal election.

1. FEDERAL ELECTION 2015

2. Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Courtenay-Alberni
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Mill Woods
Flamborough-Glanbrook
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
London West
Oakville
Saint John-Rothesay
Vancouver-Granville
+/- 3.82*
+/- 3.72
+/- 3.76
+/- 3.69
+/- 3.73
+/- 3.80
+/- 3.76
+/- 3.75
+/- 3.82
+/- 4.33
+/- 3.78
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
October 8
Riding Date Margin of ErrorSample
653
689
672
701
684
659
672
678
653
510**
665
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*19 times out of 20
***Caution: Low Sample

3. Bal Gosal (CPC)
Rosemary Keenan (NDP)
Ramesh Sangha (LPC)
Saul Bottcher (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
38%
12%
37%
3%
11%
Likely
27%
33%
10%
3%
26%
Unlikely
7%
12%
11%
53%
16%
Might
8%
0%
70%
0%
22%
Bal Gosal (CPC)
Rosemary Keenan (NDP)
Ramesh Sangha (LPC)
Saul Bottcher (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
35-49
30%
17%
33%
7%
14%
125
50-64
42%
9%
35%
2%
13%
211
65+
37%
13%
33%
4%
13%
234
Female
32%
12%
36%
4%
16%
361
Male
40%
13%
35%
5%
7%
292
Gosal Keenan Sangha Bottcher Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
36%
12%
36%
5%
12%
40%
14%
41%
5%
18-34
37%
10%
41%
5%
7%
83
BRAMPTON CENTRE

4. BRAMPTON CENTRE
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
87%
12%
1%
NDP
48%
50%
2%
GPC
69%
29%
1%
LPC
84%
9%
7%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
38% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
12% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
50% Unsure
40% Strongly agree
19% Somewhat agree
32% Neither agree nor disagree
4% Somewhat disagree
6% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
38%
12%
50%
29% Have
54% Have not
17% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
29%
54%
17%
59%
10%
32%
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure

5. BRAMPTON NORTH
Parm Gill (CPC)
Martin Singh (NDP)
Ruby Sahota (LPC)
Pauline Thornham (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
31%
14%
45%
1%
9%
Likely
28%
20%
13%
0%
39%
Unlikely
76%
7%
0%
0%
17%
Might
10%
9%
67%
0%
14%
Parm Gill (CPC)
Martin Singh (NDP)
Ruby Sahota (LPC)
Pauline Thornham (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
18-34
35%
16%
36%
0%
13%
98
35-49
29%
13%
49%
0%
9%
136
50-64
32%
16%
41%
0%
11%
199
65+
36%
8%
44%
1%
11%
256
Female
25%
12%
50%
0%
12%
392
Male
40%
16%
35%
0%
9%
297
Gill Singh Sahota Thornham Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
32%
14%
43%
1%
11%
37%
16%
46%
1%

6. BRAMPTON NORTH
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
79%
17%
4%
NDP
64%
33%
4%
GPC
100%
0%
0%
LPC
73%
23%
3%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
36% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
11% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
53% Unsure
35% Strongly agree
13% Somewhat agree
42% Neither agree nor disagree
5% Somewhat disagree
4% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
32% Have
54% Have not
14% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
36%
11%
53%
48%
9%
42%
32%
54%
14%

7. COURTENAY-ALBERNI
John Duncan (CPC)
Gord Johns (NDP)
Carrie Powell-Davidson (LPC)
Glenn Sollitt (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
29%
32%
19%
11%
9%
Likely
37%
10%
32%
1%
20%
Unlikely
12%
3%
0%
86%
0%
Might
9%
7%
7%
67%
9%
John Duncan (CPC)
Gord Johns (NDP)
Carrie Powell-Davidson (LPC)
Glenn Sollitt (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
18-34
35%
19%
23%
18%
6%
75
35-49
24%
29%
17%
17%
13%
105
50-64
21%
37%
19%
12%
11%
238
65+
35%
34%
14%
8%
10%
254
Female
26%
36%
15%
17%
6%
356
Male
30%
23%
22%
11%
13%
316
Duncan Johns Powell-Davdson Sollitt Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
28%
29%
19%
14%
10%
30%
33%
20%
16%

8. COURTENAY-ALBERNI
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
95%
4%
1%
NDP
80%
17%
2%
GPC
47%
48%
6%
LPC
69%
31%
0%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
47% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
15% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
38% Unsure
45% Strongly agree
23% Somewhat agree
25% Neither agree nor disagree
3% Somewhat disagree
6% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
74% Have
23% Have not
4% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
47%
15%
38%
65%
9%
25%
74%
23%
4%

9. EDMONTON CENTRE
James Cumming (CPC)
Gil McGowan (NDP)
Randy Boissonnault (LPC)
David Parker (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
31%
33%
26%
2%
9%
Likely
17%
55%
9%
3%
16%
Unlikely
3%
71%
1%
0%
25%
Might
45%
0%
39%
4%
12%
James Cumming (CPC)
Gil McGowan (NDP)
Randy Boissonnault (LPC)
David Parker (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
18-34
24%
51%
17%
0%
7%
104
35-49
27%
29%
29%
4%
11%
158
50-64
33%
25%
26%
4%
12%
204
65+
38%
19%
30%
1%
11%
235
Female
20%
43%
26%
2%
9%
354
Male
39%
26%
22%
3%
11%
347
Cumming McGowan Boissonnault Parker Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
29%
35%
24%
2%
10%
31%
38%
27%
3%

10. EDMONTON CENTRE
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
91%
8%
1%
NDP
77%
20%
3%
GPC
42%
52%
6%
LPC
52%
37%
11%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
43% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
17% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
39% Unsure
47% Strongly agree
12% Somewhat agree
25% Neither agree nor disagree
6% Somewhat disagree
11% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
58% Have
35% Have not
7% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
43%
17%
39%
59%25%
17%
58%
35%
7%

11. EDMONTON MILL WOODS
Tim Uppal (CPC)
Jasvir Deol (NDP)
Amarjeet Sohi (LPC)
Ralph Mclean (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
37%
12%
36%
6%
9%
Likely
32%
22%
30%
2%
13%
Unlikely
28%
5%
39%
4%
23%
Might
17%
5%
21%
0%
57%
Tim Uppal (CPC)
Jasvir Deol (NDP)
Amarjeet Sohi (LPC)
Ralph Mclean (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
18-34
25%
13%
47%
7%
7%
103
35-49
36%
13%
31%
5%
15%
157
50-64
45%
14%
27%
2%
12%
211
65+
50%
7%
28%
6%
9%
213
Female
31%
12%
38%
6%
13%
349
Male
41%
13%
33%
5%
8%
335
Uppal Deol Sohi Mclean Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
36%
12%
35%
5%
11%
39%
15%
39%
7%

12. EDMONTON MILL WOODS
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
80%
11%
9%
NDP
78%
20%
2%
GPC
48%
48%
4%
LPC
70%
26%
5%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
40% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
14% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
46% Unsure
41% Strongly agree
17% Somewhat agree
29% Neither agree nor disagree
3% Somewhat disagree
9% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
44% Have
47% Have not
9% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
40%
14%
46%
58%
29%
12%
44%
47%
9%

13. FLAMBOROUGH-GLANBROOK
David Sweet (CPC)
Mike Dilivio (NDP)
Jennifer Stebbing (LPC)
David Urqhart (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
45%
11%
23%
7%
14%
Likely
22%
5%
0%
34%
40%
Unlikely
9%
73%
0%
0%
18%
Might
3%
0%
17%
71%
9%
David Sweet (CPC)
Mike Dilivio (NDP)
Jennifer Stebbing (LPC)
David Urqhart (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
35-49
45%
9%
19%
5%
22%
134
65+
37%
10%
31%
5%
17%
208
Female
9%
16%
23%
9%
13%
355
Male
43%
8%
23%
7%
19%
304
Sweet Dilivio Stebbing Urqhart Undecided
18-34
39%
18%
16%
17%
11%
126
50-64
43%
10%
30%
2%
15%
191
All Voters Decided & Leaning
41%
12%
23%
8%
16%
48%
14%
28%
9%

14. FLAMBOROUGH-GLANBROOK
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
80%
15%
5%
NDP
79%
16%
5%
GPC
34%
64%
2%
LPC
79%
16%
5%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
37% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
16% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
4% Unsure
34% Strongly agree
17% Somewhat agree
33% Neither agree nor disagree
5% Somewhat disagree
11% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
42% Have
48% Have not
10% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
37%
16%
46%
51%
33%
16%
42%
48%
10%

15. HAMILTON WEST-ANCASTER-DUNDAS
Vincent Samuel (CPC)
Alex Johnstone (NDP)
Filomena Tassi (LPC)
Peter Ormond (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
26%
16%
43%
6%
9%
Likely
6%
5%
36%
1%
52%
Unlikely
9%
7%
68%
0%
15%
Might
12%
2%
15%
26%
46%
Vincent Samuel (CPC)
Alex Johnstone (NDP)
Filomena Tassi (LPC)
Peter Ormond (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
35-49
25%
16%
39%
7%
13%
136
65+
29%
13%
43%
3%
11%
250
Female
22%
17%
43%
7%
12%
352
Male
26%
11%
43%
6%
15%
320
Samuel Johnstone Tassi Ormond Undecided
18-34
24%
14%
39%
7%
16%
97
50-64
25%
16%
39%
7%
13%
189
All Voters Decided & Leaning
24%
14%
43%
6%
13%
27%
16%
50%
7%

16. HAMILTON WEST-ANCASTER-DUNDAS
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
91%
8%
1%
NDP
64%
33%
3%
GPC
52%
22%
26%
LPC
67%
29%
4%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
48% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
14% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
38% Unsure
44% Strongly agree
19% Somewhat agree
28% Neither agree nor disagree
2% Somewhat disagree
7% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
72% Have
24% Have not
5% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
48%
14%
38%
63%7%
28%
72%
24%
5%

17. LONDON WEST
Vincent Samuel (CPC)
Alex Johnstone (NDP)
Filomena Tassi (LPC)
Peter Ormond (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
31%
18%
38%
4%
9%
Likely
6%
12%
15%
33%
34%
Unlikely
0%
5%
16%
0%
79%
Might
25%
5%
10%
5%
56%
Ed Holder (CPC)
Matthew Rowlinson (NDP)
Kate Young (LPC)
Dimitri Lascaris (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
35-49
26%
15%
40%
1%
18%
134
65+
6%
10%
30%
2%
11%
230
Female
24%
19%
38%
5%
15%
356
Male
36%
15%
36%
5%
8%
322
Holder Rowlinson Young Lascaris Undecided
18-34
22%
24%
35%
12%
7%
87
50-64
30%
16%
41%
3%
10%
227
All Voters Decided & Leaning
30%
17%
37%
5%
12%
33%
19%
42%
6%

18. LONDON WEST
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
89%
9%
2%
NDP
74%
25%
1%
GPC
31%
65%
4%
LPC
68%
27%
5%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
43% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
16% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
40% Unsure
45% Strongly agree
17% Somewhat agree
25% Neither agree nor disagree
4% Somewhat disagree
9% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
74% Have
21% Have not
5% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
43%
16%
40%
63%
25%
12%
74%
21%
5%

19. OAKVILLE
Terence Young (CPC)
Che Marville (NDP)
John Oliver (LPC)
David Doel (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
36%
3%
50%
5%
6%
Likely
40%
12%
12%
25%
11%
Unlikely
9%
0%
0%
57%
34%
Might
35%
0%
19%
10%
36%
Terence Young (CPC)
Che Marville (NDP)
John Oliver (LPC)
David Doel (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
35-49
36%
4%
45%
7%
9%
133
65+
40%
6%
46%
3%
5%
238
Female
32%
3%
50%
8%
7%
353
Male
40%
4%
43%
6%
7%
300
Young Marville Oliver Doel Undecided
18-34
31%
4%
51%
13%
6%
85
50-64
39%
5%
45%
4%
7%
197
All Voters Decided & Leaning
36%
4%
47%
7%
7%
38%
5%
50%
7%

20. OAKVILLE
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
79%
20%
1%
NDP
52%
47%
2%
GPC
21%
71%
9%
LPC
73%
24%
3%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
45% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
20% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
35% Unsure
42% Strongly agree
16% Somewhat agree
27% Neither agree nor disagree
3% Somewhat disagree
13% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
72% Have
25% Have not
4% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
45%
20%
35%
58%27%
16%
72%
25%
4%

21. SAINT JOHN-ROTHESAY
Rodney Weston (CPC)
AJ Griffin (NDP)
Wayne Long (LPC)
Sharon Murphy (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
32%
20%
34%
2%
12%
Likely
44%
33%
14%
0%
9%
Unlikely
17%
11%
45%
0%
26%
Might
13%
50%
8%
7%
21%
Rodney Weston (CPC)
AJ Griffin (NDP)
Wayne Long (LPC)
Sharon Murphy (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
35-49
28%
21%
38%
7%
7%
99
65+
42%
11%
34%
2%
11%
201
Female
31%
17%
35%
3%
15%
274
Male
33%
26%
30%
2%
9%
236
Weston AJ Griffin Long Murphy Undecided
18-34
30%
37%
16%
0%
17%
75
50-64
29%
18%
39%
1%
13%
135
All Voters Decided & Leaning
32%
21%
32%
3%
12%
36%
26%
34%
4%

22. Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
45% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
9% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
45% Unsure
Increase Privatize Unsure
SAINT JOHN-ROTHESAY
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
47% Strongly agree
14% Somewhat agree
29% Neither agree nor disagree
3% Somewhat disagree
7% Strongly disagree
67% Have
26% Have not
7% Unsure
NDP
67%
30%
3%
GPC
57%
31%
11%
LPC
70%
24%
6%
CPC
77%
17%
6%
45%
9%
45%
61%
10%
29%
67%
26%
7%

23. VANCOUVER-GRANVILLE
Erinn Broshko (CPC)
Mira Oreck (NDP)
Jody Wilson-Raybould (LPC)
Michael Barkusky (GPC)
Undecided
Certain
17%
26%
41%
8%
9%
Likely
18%
46%
18%
0%
18%
Unlikely
18%
26%
18%
0%
38%
Might
8%
0%
11%
16%
65%
Erinn Broshko (CPC)
Mira Oreck (NDP)
Jody Wilson-Raybould (LPC)
Michael Barkusky (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
35-49
14%
33%
41%
2%
10%
102
65+
33%
8%
36%
7%
17%
232
Female
17%
26%
41%
5%
11%
364
Male
17%
24%
37%
11%
11%
301
Broshko Oreck Wilson-Raybould Barkusky Undecided
18-34
8%
25%
44%
14%
9%
95
50-64
20%
27%
33%
8%
12%
236
All Voters Decided & Leaning
17%
25%
39%
8%
11%
20%
28%
44%
9%

24. VANCOUVER-GRANVILLE
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure
CPC
89%
11%
0%
NDP
58%
40%
2%
GPC
84%
16%
0%
LPC
75%
19%
6%
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?
65% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
9% More likely to vote for a candidate
who favours privatizing the CBC
26% Unsure
63% Strongly agree
16% Somewhat agree
15% Neither agree nor disagree
3% Somewhat disagree
4% Strongly disagree
Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,
do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
25% Have
65% Have not
11% Unsure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Increase Privatize Unsure
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
Have Have not Unsure
79%
15%
7%
65%
9%
26%
24%
65%
11%

25. Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience
at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected
commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in
Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of last October’s Toronto mayoral election.

26. Polls were conducted in Brampton Centre, Brampton North,
Courtenay-Alberni, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods,
Flamborough-Glanbrook, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, London
West, Oakville, Saint John-Rothesay and Vancouver Granville using
Smart IVR™. See next page for dial dates, samples and margins of error.
Polls were commissioned and paid for by the Friends of Canadian
Broadasting.
For More Information:
Mainstreet Research:
David Valentin, david@mainstreetresearch.ca