Amministratore delegato del Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, think tank con sede in Danimarca e centro di ricerca internazionale tra i più autorevoli. Esperto di strategia, innovazione, marketing e consumer trends, tiene conferenze in tutto il mondo. Ha collaborato con istituzioni governative, organizzazioni internazionali, istituti finanziari e aziende private su progetti strategici di larga scala. È stato amministratore delegato e consulente in numerose start up.

1. The future of SME
and the evolution
of business
clusters
October 14th
2013

3. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures
Studies (CIFS)
CIFS is an independent, not-for-profit think
tank. Since 1970, it has been guiding key
decision makers all over the world.
We use futures studies to create immediate
changes, innovation and development in
companies, organizations and society.
We do this by offering a future-driven
business network, experienced business
development competencies and strong
knowledge sharing. Part of our revenues are
invested in R & D.
Strategy &
Innovation
Live
Inspiration
Membership
Network

4. Some of our products:
Award winning
magazine
Members’ reports
Projects for clients

5. Studying the future is human nature
It is a crucial adaptive capacity in
human social, cultural, political and
economic evolution
It is a fundamental aspect
of who we are and
how we function.

6. Predictions is rarely enough
”I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing”
President George W. Bush July 2008

7. And the costumers are still more demanding
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

8. Do they actually know what the want?
”If I asked people what they wanted, I
would have made a faster horse”
Henry Ford

9. What is a megatrend?
We are trying to lay a hierarchy over a
chaotic system
Top level
megatrend
Sub-trend
trends
Individual
obeservations

10. Assessing megatrends’ consequences
•
Megatrends are synthetic complex aggregation of trends. They are
interconnected, which means there are synergistic opportunities among
them.
•
You can’t hide from a megatrend – they affects society in general. While
megatrends are global, their impacts can vary locally.
•
They have a life time of at least 10-15 years
•
Warning: While they are ”paths” of expected development, do not expect
the development to occur linearly
•
We have a tendency to over estimate the consequences in the short-run and
under estimate them in the long run.

11. How companies use megatrends:
Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey:
-
Capture market oppotunities
Test risks
Spur innovation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
- Basis for innovation process
- Basis for scenario planning
- Basis for Early Warning Systems
- First step in quality assessment of business and strategy concepts (investment
themes)
Matthias Horx, Futurist:
- Better decision making in strategic management
- Quicker and more precise innovation generation

12. USA, Magazine from the 1950’s: ”America 2000 - this is your future!”
3D Color TV
Wall-Panel
Glass Walls
Dust-free
Floors
Slide-back Roof
Personal Helicopter &
Roof Landing Area
Menu Selector &
Microwave Stove
Giant-size
Fruit
MovingStairway
Ultrasonic
Laundry
Electrical
Heat Unit
House-control
Panel
Phono-vision
Receiver

13. An example from CIFS
”Before 2005 we must expect China and
maybe India to be future competitors
and potential markets if we are able to
adapt to their political and cultural
constraints”.
Source, IFF: Towards 2005, 1980

14. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

15. Threats and opportunities are in the cross
Original position
e.g. Clean Energy
section of trends
Sustainability
Current position
Globalization
Technology Development
Economic Growth
Pictet Asset Management
How to benefit from a megatrend
15

16. How to use megatrends
•
•
•
•
•
Social
Technology
Economic
Environmental
Political
•
•
•
Megatrends
Contextual
environment
Competitors
(new and
existing)
Suppliers and
value chain
Labor market
Transactional
environment
Companies’
innovation,
strategy and
risk
management
Opportunities
Threats

17. Different approaches to predicting
the future
Scenarios
Predictive
Forecasts
What if?
Explorative
External
Strategic
Normative
Sustaining
Transformative
Source: Börjeson, Línda, et. al. 2005. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm, KTH.

18. Forecasts
Scenarios
• Possible futures
• Based on certain
relationships
• Hidden risks
• Quantitative
• Done when we
need to decide
quickly
• Used everyday
• Strong in short-term
and in areas with low
degrees of
uncertainty
• Possible and
plausible
• Uncertainty based
• Illustrate risks
• Quantitative or
Qualitative
• Need to know what
must be decided
• Used occasionally
• Strong in the
medium to long-term
or when there are high
degrees of uncertainty
Visions
• Desired future
• Value based
• Hidden risks
• Qualitative
• Inspiring
• Used daily
• Used in everyday
decision making

19. Examples of Scenarios

21. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

22. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

23. Accelerating pace of change

24. •
Accelerating pace of change
Exponential rate of ICT development
– ”Technological progress—in
particular, improvements in
computer hardware, software, and
networks—has been so rapid and so
surprising that many present-day
organizations, institutions, policies,
and mindsets are not keeping up.”
•
•
Hyper-competition is accelerating
creative destruction
CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s
last less than 2 years and median
tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia
it is down to 3.9 years)
The rate of replacement of Fortune1000
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1973-1983
1983-1993
1993-2003
2003-2013
Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune
1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011
http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/

29. Customers, innovation, competitors –
the biggest threat to organizations
Political
Risk
Customer
Preference
Significance
Competitor
Shifts
Innovation
Business
Interruption
Technology
Shifts
Economic
Conditions
Reputation
Regulation
Terrorism
Interest
rates
Hazards
Foreign
Exchange
Credit Risk
Compliance
Likelihood
Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)

30. Industries converge
Five largest mobile handset manufacturers
worldwide based on quarterly sales figures
(total units sold)
2000
2012
1. Nokia
1. Samsung
2. Motorola
2. Nokia
3. Ericsson
3. Apple
4. Siemens
4. ZTE
5. Panasonic
5. LG Electronics
Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012

31. New society creates need for new partnerships
Energy
Infrastructure
Competition
convergence
ICT
Players
Automobile &
homeowners
assistance

32. What is the answer
•
Exponential rate of ICT development
– ”Technological progress—in
particular, improvements in
computer hardware, software, and
networks—has been so rapid and so
surprising that many present-day
organizations, institutions, policies,
and mindsets are not keeping up.”
•
•
Hyper-competition is accelerating
creative destruction
CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s
last less than 2 years and median
tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia
it is down to 3.9 years)
The rate of replacement of Fortune1000
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1973-1983
1983-1993
1993-2003
2003-2013
Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune
1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011
http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/

33. The answer is increased flexibility:
Due to the pace of change, employees are
transitioning from a fixed to variable cost
• Among OECD countries, temporary job growth has been
1.5 – 2 times faster than total employment since 1990s
• In France, the number of temporary jobs grew by 66
percent while regular job growth increased by 7 (20002010).
Source: McKinsey (2012)

34. From transaction to relation and service
Ownership
Assets
Lease
Service
Cash flow

35. Reflections
conclusions
Consequences
?
Is you technology increasing the
flexibility of your customers
Are you selling a product or a
service?

36. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

37. A new society requires new ways of working
20th century
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
21st century
“Limited” social interaction
Value in transactions
Business stability
Well-defined industries and
hierarchies
One-way markets
Limited information
Resource abundance
Institutions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Pervasive social interaction
Value in relationships
Business flux
Industry transformation
Two-way markets
Information abundance
Resource constraints
Forces
Ambient communication
Global information flows
Social computing
Market discontinuity
Communities
CONTROL
Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010

38. How does this
affects private
consumption?
MR1 2013

39. Access/service is more important than
owning

42. RobotCab – googlecar

43. Sharing economy
Source: The Economist (2013)

44. FREEDOM FROM OWNING

45. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

46. Economic Growth

47. Growth is a megatrend but WE are struggeling
GDP Growth Rate, as a % of previous Quarter
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Q4-2010
Q1-2011
Q2-2011
Q3-2011
Q4-2011
Q1-2012
Q2-2012
Q3-2012
-0,5
Germany
United States
European Union (27 countries)
OECD - Total
Brazil
China
India
Source: OECD StatExtracts, data extracted dec 3, 2012

48. Middle class now and in 2030
Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030
Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum

49. Just the beginning

50. The transatlantic economy VS the rest of the world
(% of total GDP based on purchasing-power-parity)

51. Personal consumption in developing Europe VS
China (billions of USD)

52. Output of Europe’s periphery VS China/India
(trillions of USD)
Europe’s periphery:
Developing Europe,
Middle East, North
Africa and SubSaharan Africa

53. Regional thinking
Kilde:
Tøm vækstlommerne i Europa, af Susanne Tholstrup, Børsen, 20.09.12

54. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

55. Middle class now and in 2030
Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030
Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum

56. Institutioner
Source: Fatás&Mihov HBR 2009. Based on: Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2007. Daniel Kaufmann Aart Kraay
Massimo Mastruzzi The World Bank Development Research GroupJune 2008

57. A changing environment for
offshoring
Source: McKinsey (2008)

58. Massive Impact

59. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

60. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1950
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
28,6

61. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1960
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
29,6

62. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1970
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
30,6

63. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1980
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
31,9

64. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1990
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
34,4

65. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2000
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
37,6

66. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2010
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
40,8

67. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2020
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
43,8

68. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2030
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
46,6

69. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2040
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
49,4

70. OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mænd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2050
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population (i tusental)
Population (in 1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
51,1

71. We’re not alone

72. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Senior lines
• K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow-track checkout
lane for the old and handicapped
• Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt,
small talking with the co-worker
• Lane is called: “SLOW”
• Grab a chair - sit down – and enjoy the atmosphere

73. Life Phases
Around 1950
0
Around 2020
20
40
60
80
Age
Elderly
60
Free II
Parents
40
Free 1
Independent
20
Dependent
0
80
Age

74. Omkari Panwar, 70 år

75. Better than expected
The experience of life in retirement after 60, is almost everywhere better
than expected – whether comparing missing work, financial security or
standards of living.
The survey shows that far from being a time of misery, penury and frailty, life
for most people in their 60s and 70s is characterised by good health,
independence, control and a good quality of life
Source: HSCB Insurance, 2011: The Future of retirement

76. And we are all moving to the city
Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population)
United Nations:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision

77. Genkai Shuraku- marginal village
A community that has
reached a critical limit in
the number of elderly
that ultimately hinders
their ability to function
properly. 50% of the
population above 65
(18.775 villages) will be
Genkai Shuraku in 2020.
Source: DS (2012)

78. Four major urbanization trends
Importance of
global 600
Emergence of
mega cities
600 most
important
contributors to
global GDP
Cities with over 5
million inhabitants
Mega regions
Mega corridors
Cities combining
with suburbs to
form regions
(population over
10 million)
The corridors
connecting two
major cities or
mega regions
EXAMPLE: Hong
Kong-ShenzhenGuangzhou in
China (population
120 Million+)

79. • Today: "Pentagon": London,
Hamburg, München, Milano
og Paris.
• I 2040: The Pentagon goes
east: London, Paris,
Hamburg og Warszawa.
Source: EPSON 2006, IDA, 2009, NISA 2010

80. Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority

81. She-conomy
• The average American woman is
expected to earn more than the average
American male by 2028.
• Women account for 85% of all consumer
purchases :
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
91% of New Homes
66% PCs
92% Vacations
80% Healthcare
65% New Cars
89% Bank Accounts
93% Food
93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals
Sources: She-conomy.com

82. Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority
Nordic Region Women graduates ISCED
5+6
Business, law, social sciences.
Engineering, however, no change
100000
60,00%
90000
50,00%
80000
40,00%
70000
30,00%
60000
Men
50000
Women
Lineær (Men)
40000
Lineær (Women)
30000
20,00%
10,00%
0,00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3. Social science, business and law
4. Natural science, mathematics and computing
20000
5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction
10000
Lineær (
Lineær (
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Women graduates grew 2,5 times faster than
men
3. Social science, business and law)
4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)
Lineær (
4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)

83. Design, products and services for women
Today, 1/3 of Danish women earn more
than their partner
In 2000, only 1/4 of Danish women
earned more than their partner
Growing portion are single
Towards, 2028 72% of purchasing decisions
will be made by women…if BCG is correct
Sources: DS, 2012, DDC, 2011

84. Reflections
conclusions
Consequences
Aging?
Urbanization
She-conomy

85. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

86. Please, help yourself

87. Holy Grail—a
5.6-ounce
running shoe
called the
Flyknit,
made from
synthetic
yarn
ingeniously
woven
together by a
knitting
machine.

88. Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

89. A consequence of the financial crisis
From
To

90. Critical success factor in business

91. Numerous studies show that on average, a
business located in a cluster has a
stronger growth and survival rate than
those located outside it.

92. Clusters enhance the following:
» Productivity
» Innovation
» New business formation
Source: HBR, 1998

93. Critical success factor identified
within global search
New business formation
Productivity
Innovation

94. Example of clusters in various
industries
Financial
services
• London City, New York
Film
• Hollywood, “Bollywood”
Cars
• Detroit, Toyota City, Wolfsburg,
Stuttgart
Watches
Flowers
Computer
software
Wine
Biotech, life
sciences and
medical
instruments
• Switzerland, Japan
• The Netherlands, Colombia
• Silicon Valley, Bangalore
• Barossa Valley, Rioja, Bordeaux,
Southern Chile, parts of California
• Boston’s Route 128, BioValley 21,
Medicon Valley

95. Clusters typology can be based on
organization criteria:
•
industrial clusters (rural areas, no leader firm, shift from small-scale production to
industry, informal relationships)
– e.g.: Italian industrial districts
•
technological clusters (urban area, incubator role, professional relationships)
–
•
SMEs concentration (rural areas, network activities, informal relationships)
–
•
e.g.: aircraft industry in Toulouse/France, wood industry in Banská Bystrica region/Slovakia
e.g: tourism industry
system around a leader firm (urban area, hierarchical relationships)
–
e.g.: automotive sector in Montbéliard/France, Trnava/Slovakia (PSA Peugeot)

96. -50
-100
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
UK
Latvia
Ireland
Italy
Bulgaria
Austria
Turkey
Croatia
Portugal
Norway
Belgium
Sweden
Finland
Estonia
Germany
Slovakia
Netherlands
Slovenia
Hungary
France
Romania
Luxembourg
Island
Malta
Lithuania
Switzerland
Spain
Denmark
Greece
Czech Republic
Poland
Cyprus
100
Croatia
Lithuania
Slovenia
Latvia
Poland
Cyprus
Malta
Finland
Greece
Estonia
Turkey
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Denmark
Belgium
Romania
Ireland
Germany
Sweden
Norway
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
UK
Island
France
Austria
Switzerland
Czech…
Italy
Netherlands
Hungary
Clusters in Italy
Companies active in cluster-like environment (%)
50
0
Others
Cluster like
environment
-150
Partnership Diversity Index
• Public administration
• University and other
education institutions
• Public laboratories or
research centers
• Large companies
• Small and Medium
Enterprises
• Start-ups / Newly
established companies
• Financial institutions
Source: Eurobarometer, 2006

97. Cluster: evolution of concept
Geographic concentrations of
interconnected companies,
specialized suppliers, service
providers, firms in related
industries, and associated
institutions in particular fields
that compete but also
cooperate.
Michael E. Porter (1998)
Network arrangements that,
though embedded in,
transcend geographical
location, focus on global
markets, operate as ad-hoc
and/or long term business
networks, are ICT enabled,
and are based on dynamic
aggregations of capabilities
of different SMEs.
Damaskopoulos et al (2008)
Top-down approaches have proven
ineffective to improve firms’ (esp.
SMEs) innovation capacity
Networks and open knowledge
clusters, bottom-up conceived, are
the alternative for SMEs to flourish

98. CIFS megatrends
Network society
Sustainability
Demographic
development
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Complexity and
acceleration
Commercialization
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

99. CIFS megatrends
Network society
Sustainability
Demographic
development
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Productivity
Commercialization
Complexity and
acceleration
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

100. A new society requires new ways of working
20th century
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
21st century
“Limited” social interaction
Value in transactions
Business stability
Well-defined industries and
hierarchies
One-way markets
Limited information
Resource abundance
Institutions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Pervasive social interaction
Value in relationships
Business flux
Industry transformation
Two-way markets
Information abundance
Resource constraints
Forces
Ambient communication
Global information flows
Social computing
Market discontinuity
Communities
CONTROL
Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010

101. Clusters and productivity
» Better access to employees and suppliers
» Access to specialized information
» Complementarities
» Access to institutions and public goods
» Better motivation and measurement

102. CIFS megatrends
Network society
Sustainability
Demographic
development
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Innovation
Globalization
Immaterialization
Democratization
Complexity and
acceleration
Commercialization
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

103. Hyper specialization
• As labor becomes more
knowledge based and
communication technology
advances, the division of labor
accelerates.
• It leads to improvements in:
» quality,
» speed and
» cost.
Source: HBR, 2012

104. Increasing talent mobility
250
214
Number (millian)
200
154,9
165,1
176,7
190,6
150
100
81,3
86,3
99,3
111
50
0
Year
Source: Global Talent Strategy (2012), Oxford economics (2013)

105. Managing talent, Leadership Development,
and Strategic Workforce Planning Are
Perceived as the Most Critical Topics
Source: BCG/WFPMA, 2012. Modified by CIFS

106. Open source innovation &
Crowdsourcing

107. Investment in product development
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
C
u
er
m
ct
ct
n
el
s
p.
ex
an
ch
d
o
st
n
es
al
du
du
e
oc
pr
el
od
s
m
ce
em
vi
st
er
sy
ro
ra
B
S
S
P
ro
e
or
s
ce
ro
k
or
es
.P
w
et
n
si
up
P
C
S
N
u
B
Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.

108. 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Value Creation due to product
development
C
u
er
m
ct
ct
n
el
s
p.
ex
an
ch
d
o
st
n
es
al
du
du
e
oc
pr
el
od
s
m
ce
em
vi
st
er
sy
ro
ra
B
S
S
P
ro
e
or
s
ce
ro
k
or
es
.P
w
et
n
si
up
P
C
S
N
u
B
Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.

109. Business model innovators
outperform traditional innovators

110. Innovation is higher in clusters than
elsewhere
Innovative cluster companies
78
Inovative companies
74
63
56
53
53
44
41
33
29
29
20
14
Introduce new or Introduce new or Conduct market
significantly
significantly
research for
improved
improved
introducing new
products or
production
products or
services
technology
services
12
Carry out inContract out
Register one or
house research research to other
more
firms, universities international
or research
trademarks
institutes
Apply for one or
more patents
Source: Eurobarometer, 2006

111. CIFS megatrends
Network society
Sustainability
Demographic
development
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Immaterialization
Polarization
Globalization
New business
formation
Democratization
Complexity and
acceleration
Commercialization
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth

112. FoodNetwork: Innovation at Eye Level
The aim:
Main participants:
• create growth within the food industry through
networks, projects and activities
• be the link that ensures visibility of the relevant
• partners within the food industry support and
facilitate existing and new clusters
• Companies: Q food, Nørre Kærgård Bison, Delika,
India Dan, Sans og samling Gastronomi, Lindbjerg
Økoged, Sørvad Frilandgrise & fodboldgolf,
Canstantia2, Selleberg, Gårdmosteriet Fyn,
Højvang, Claudis Have, Mylius-Erichsens Bryghus,
Jæger-Holding, Jens Møller Products, Canard,
Danika-Grønt, Kokken og Jomfruen, Christian
Vollstedt
• Knowledge Institutions: Knowledge for-Food
Development, Danish Technological Institute,
Holstebro Technical College, AgroTech
• 8 private consultants, Food Center Videbæk
Four development groups:
Novelty of the case activity:
• Meat development group (new recipes based on
bison meat)
• Logistics group (develop a model for a joint sales
and distribution)
• Business Development workshop (individual
projects development and counseling process)
• Internationalization workshop (individual
projects development and counseling process)
• New approach to interaction between individual
counseling and development in small groups
• Particular groups who have been joined across the
value chain and have worked together to develop
concrete recipes or concepts.
• ‘Innovation at eye level’ was an isolated project, but
it is a method we will continue to develop and refine
for future activities and projects.

113. Kalundborg Symbiosis

114. Clusters internationalization
Suppliers
» Networked projects
Workforce
training
Manufactur
ers
» Cross‐clusters
Cluster
» Trans‐local relations
Researchers
Distributors
Academic
institutions

115. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
www.iff.dk
Claus Kjeldsen
ck@iff.dk
+45 28 25 31 01