Eden Shopping Centre in High Wycombe was used as a case study location to demonstrate FSP's retail consultancy techniques. The document provides an analysis of Eden including its catchment area demographics, competitors, trading potential, and recommendations. It finds that High Wycombe struggles to attract affluent residents as shoppers and loses some to nearby towns. The trading gap presents an opportunity of £73 million which could be addressed by improving the retail mix to attract more affluent shoppers, developing underperforming areas of Eden, and strengthening the fashion and food/beverage offerings.
1. August 6, 2013
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
High Wycombe
Demonstration Report
2. Introduction
The purpose of this report is to provide a representative example of FSP consultancy techniques.
The following sections in this sample report are standard FSP outputs. In practice, research is
tailored to satisfy clients’ specific needs, which may require differing/additional research options
and outputs that are readily available. Similarly, a client may require only some sections of the
report – these considerations define the scope of the work undertaken by FSP.
This demonstration report uses Eden Shopping Centre located in High Wycombe as the analysed
centre. A ‘field audit’ of all operators in High Wycombe Town Centre was conducted, recording the
type of trader, approximate trading floor space, estimated retail sales along with additional
observations.
FSP has selected Eden in High Wycombe to develop a sample report purely on the basis that it’s
head office is located in the town. Data, such as rental information for Eden, is fictitious for the
purpose of this report so should not be read as a definitive view of the Centre’s sustainability.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS2
3. Brief
Eden Shopping Centre in High Wycombe is located approximately 30 miles North West of
London, surrounded by pockets of considerable affluence. Market intelligence is required to
optimise the Centre’s performance by fully understanding the catchment in order to inform future
strategy.
To help achieve this aim, FSP has conducted research and provide a report to:
Ascertain catchment boundaries together with demographics, spending and lifestyles
Define the profile of shoppers
Identify the main competing shopping locations
Identify comparable towns to aid leasing approach
Carry out a SWOT analysis of Eden
Identify the scale of Trading Gap
Evaluate Sustainable Rent and Retailer Risk of existing tenants
Assess the retail mix of Eden and future potential including target retailers
This report sets out FSP’s findings, conclusions and recommendations.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS3
4. Executive Summary
High Wycombe is a large market town, located in the Chiltern Hills, approximately 30 miles to
the North West of London. The town has a diverse manufacturing, distribution, administrative
and commuter-based economy and attracts a Shopper Population of 142k, (nationally ranking
114th) which is drawn from a Resident Population of 307k
The catchment population is very affluent. The average household income is 25% above the
national average, and 48% of residents are classified within the most affluent ACORN
Category, Wealthy Achievers
This said, High Wycombe currently struggles to successfully convert affluent residents into
shoppers, with the shopper population dominated by Comfortably Off ACORN Category
High Wycombe loses shoppers to a range of competing shopping destinations, but the three
largest, Aylesbury, Watford and Uxbridge, together take only 22% of the shopper leakage from
the High Wycombe catchment
In addition, small towns within High Wycombe’s catchment, such as Marlow, Beaconsfield and
Amersham provide a different type of retail offer to High Wycombe – often aspirational,
independent retailer based and ‘niche’, appealing to more affluent residents
Shoppers in High Wycombe, in number and profile, are similar to those using Solihull,
Tunbridge Wells, and Leamington Spa. The existing scale and nature of the town’s retail offer
trails these centres suggesting a significant opportunity to improve the quality of retail provision
in High Wycombe
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS4
5. Executive Summary
Current retail sales in High Wycombe are estimated at £211m
FSP calculates that there is a Trading Gap (sales growth opportunity) of £73m.
This is made up of;
Market Share Gap of £45m – an opportunity to improve existing visitor spending conversion
with a more appropriate retail offer
Shopper Gap of £20m – better conversion of residents to shoppers (generating greater
footfall) by targeting currently under-performing postcode sectors
Catchment Gap of £8m – increasing overall penetration of the catchment
The C&F offer in High Wycombe is dominated by retailers targeting the Family sector, creating
an under-provision in the Assured market which accounts for the majority of shopper spend.
Eden is reasonably positioned for its shoppers, so should continue to capitalise on its mid-
market attraction of Young/ Family, but also exploit, where possible, the significant catchment
opportunity to develop the Assured offer
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS5
6. Executive Summary
FSP recommends that Eden establishes a slightly more upmarket appeal in order to target a
greater proportion of affluent residents and thereby strengthen the Assured offer. Assured
absent retailers that could realistically fit into Eden’s trading profile include Fat Face, Aldo and
Dune, whereas more upmarket retailers, such as Jigsaw, are less likely to view the Centre as a
realistic location at present
Whilst strengthening the Assured offer to a modest degree, the Centre should continue to
capitalise on its current Young/Family appeal in conjunction with F&B and Leisure provision to
improve Eden as a destination. A selection of retailers for consideration are located at page 54
Eden is hampered by the current provision of retail accommodation in the older, original part of
the Centre which is unattractive and unlikely to appeal to new retailers so should consider the
cost/benefit of developing the old part of the Centre up to the standard of the new
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS6
9. Catchment and Demographics
The map overleaf shows High Wycombe’s Principal Non-Food catchment area, derived from the
National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (NSLSP) 2011. The Primary segment represents the
home location of 50% of High Wycombe shoppers. The Secondary segment represents where the
next 25% of High Wycombe shoppers live and the Tertiary segment a further 15%. For a full list of
postal sectors by Catchment segment please see Appendix 1.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS9
The Primary segment has a Resident Population of 113k
The Secondary segment has a Resident Population of 73k
The Tertiary segment has a Resident Population of 121k. Competition from Aylesbury in the
North prevents the catchment extending further
The total resident population for the Principal catchment area is 307k. The Resident Population is
expected to increase at a slower rate than UK average, up by 5% to 2020 (UK+7%).
11. Resident and Shopping Population
The Shopping Population represents the proportion of the Resident Population that uses High
Wycombe as their main Non-Food shopping destination. The total Shopper Population also
includes a 10% ‘pull in’ figure that relates to those who shop in High Wycombe town centre, but
live outside the Principal Catchment area. The Shopping Populations are:
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS11
Primary segment 73k – 65% penetration
Secondary segment 35k – 48% penetration
Tertiary segment 20k – 17% penetration
The Principal catchment produces 128k (142k
incl. ‘pull-in’). Penetration is 42%, while typical
penetration for similar sized ‘Major District’
towns as High Wycombe is classified is 22%,
suggesting High Wycombe acts more similar
to a ‘Major Sub Regional’ centre.
High Wycombe ranks 114th nationally by
Shopper Population. The shopper opportunity
at High Wycombe is greater than Bury St
Edmunds, Salisbury and Harrogate.
Source: FSP/CES
12. Population Density and Shopper Penetration
The maps show population density and shopper penetration within High Wycombe's catchment.
Population density is lowest in the West of the catchment and greatest in the South East
Shopper penetration is, logically, highest close to High Wycombe, with the lowest penetration in
the far East and West of the catchment
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS12
Source: FSP/NSLSP
Shopper PenetrationPopulation Density
13. The graph shows the demographic
characteristics of the Principal catchment
compared to UK averages represented by
Index 100.
Proportions of Pre-Family households are
23% below UK average, but are in line
with it in the Primary segment
Family households make up 33% of the
catchment – 7% above UK average, 11%
above in the Primary
Empty Nesters overall are 11% above UK
average, but just 2% above in the Primary
Retired Seniors are 7% below UK
average, 21% below in the Primary
The Primary segment (with the majority of
shoppers) is skewed towards younger
households
Catchment Demographics – Resident Lifestage
13
Catchment households have been classified into four Lifestage Groups: Pre-Family: Main wage
earner, under 45, no children; Family: Any age, dependent children living at home; Empty-Nesters:
45-69, no dependent children at home; Retired Seniors: 70+, no dependent children at home.
Source: FSP/CES
Pre-Family Family Empty Nesters
Retired
Seniors
Primary 100 111 102 79
Secondary 63 104 117 101
Tertiary 66 106 115 99
Total 77 107 111 93
High Wycombe % 14 33 35 17
UK % 18 31 32 19
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Above
UK Average
Neutral
Below
UK Average
Index = UK
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
14. Household Income and Expenditure
The graph highlights the relationship
between average resident household
income and retail expenditure on
Food and Non-Grocery. While
income provides a good indication of
catchment affluence, it tells only a
partial story about the propensity for
retail spending.
Household income is 25% above
UK average
Non-Grocery and Food spend are
above UK average, by 14% and
11% respectively
Both household income and
spend are highest in the Tertiary
segment and lowest in the
Secondary segment
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS14
Household Income Non-Grocery Spend Food Spend
Primary 123 113 111
Seconday 119 104 104
Tertiary 131 121 115
Total 125 114 111
High Wycombe £43,780 £10,410 £5,497
UK £35,004 £9,137 £4,988
80
90
100
110
120
130
Total
Above UK
Average
Neutral
Below UK
Average
Source: FSP/CES
15. Expected Shoppers – ACORN profile
The adjacent graph shows the
ACORN profile of High Wycombe’s
expected shoppers compared to
catchment residents.
High Wycombe fails to attract
the expected proportions of
Wealthy Executives, with less
than 50% of these residents
using the town as their main
Non-Food shopping destination
Accounting for the majority of
shoppers (26%), Secure
Families are over-represented
in the shopper population
This suggests High Wycombe
has work to do to successfully
attract more affluent shoppers.
Its offer remains appealing to
the middle markets
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS15
Source: FSP/CACI
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Wealthy Executives
Affluent Greys
Flourishing Families
Prosperous Professionals
Educated Urbanites
Aspiring Singles
Starting Out
Secure Families
Settled Suburbia
Prudent Pensioners
Asian Communities
Post-Industrial Families
Blue-Collar Roots
Struggling Families
Burdened Singles
High-Rise Hardship
Inner City Adversity
Wealthy
Achievers
Urban
ProsperityComfortablyOff
Moderate
MeansHard-Pressed
Expected Shoppers Catchment Residents
Full ACORN definitions can be found in Appendix 3.
16. Shopper Spend
Non-Grocery shopper spending amounts to £579m (including 10% pull-in)
Household Goods and C&F are the largest markets, annually worth £150m and £139m
(including 10% pull-in)
F&B is also a large market, with an annual spend of £106m (including 10% pull-in)
Spend levels are highest in the Primary segment at £293m, accounting for 56% of the Principal
catchment spend
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS16
Source: FSP/NSLSP
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
F&B
Shopper Spend (£m)
Primary Spend Secondary Spend Tertiary Spend
Primary
Spend,
£293m
Secondary
Spend,
£137m
Tertiary
Spend,
£91m
18. SWOT Analysis
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS18
Strengths
Eden – a modern, covered centre in the town
centre
Strong anchors – M&S, Tesco and House of
Fraser
Decent Leisure offer, with AMF bowling and a 12
screen Cineworld Cinema
Good versions of popular national retailers,
including Superdry, Monsoon, L’Occitane, H&M,
Zara, River Island, Topshop and New Look
Toys R Us have chosen Eden to trial a new town
centre format store
Good F&B offer, including Wagamama, Zizzi,
Nando’s, Frankie and Benny’s and YO! Sushi
Eden offers good parking and well-maintained
toilet facilities
Large student population
Weaknesses
Vacancies plague the town centre and Eden
John Lewis is located out-of-town, just off the
M40 and has received planning permission to
expand into the clothing market
Eden lacks integration between the new
development (Newland Street/Meadow) and
the older part (Union Parade and Eden Walk)
Existing town centre offer fails to attract more
affluent shoppers from surrounding towns
Tesco, situated in the middle of Eden, has
previously been resistant to re-location to
improve Centre layout and circulation
F&B offer not fully integrated – main
restaurants remote from shopping
19. Opportunities
Cinema and bowling act as a strong attraction
to F&B operators. Vacant La Tasca unit should
be opportunity to extend F&B
Fully cover Eden/ reduce ‘wind tunnel’ effect.
Although the Centre is largely covered,
improvement is required to provide a more
pleasant shopping environment
Improve attractiveness/environment of the
older half of Eden (Union Parade and Eden
Walk).
Combine smaller units to create larger units to
attract tenants
Increase sales through attracting affluent
shoppers within the catchment
Work with House of Fraser to increase
awareness of the store within under-performing
zones
SWOT Analysis
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS19
Threats
Out-of-town John Lewis will add fashion,
childrenswear and toys as part of a £16m
extension and refurbishment to be completed
by October 2013. This is a major threat
providing further encouragement for more
affluent shoppers to avoid HW town centre
Newly vacant Jessops unit and poor quality
independents along Union Parade weaken
appearance of Eden in this area
HMV falling into administration – although this
offers the opportunity to fill the unit with a
strong national C&F retailer to complement
Newland Street’s already strong offer
21. Competing Centres – Leakage
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS21
High Wycombe’s catchment penetration
is 42%. Leakage is made up of the
remaining 58% of catchment residents
who do not use High Wycombe as their
main Non-Food shopping destination.
Aylesbury and Watford are High
Wycombe’s biggest competitors.
Both falling outside the Principal
catchment area, they each account
for 8% of leakage
Uxbridge makes up 6% of leakage
Hemel Hempstead, Reading and
Maidenhead each account for 5% of
leakage
Slough accounts for a further 4% of
leakage
Locations that individually account for
less than 4% of the leakage, are
included in ‘Other’, in total taking a
market share of 58%.
Source: FSP/CES
Aylesbury
8%
Watford
8%
Uxbridge
6%
Hemel
Hempstead
5%
Reading
5%
Maidenhead
5%
Slough
4%
Other
58%
22. Competing Centres
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS22
The graph below uses NSLSP data to compare High Wycombe with its competing centres in
terms of the ACORN profile of and number of shoppers.
High Wycombe’s shopper population (left-hand scale) is most similar to Slough in terms of size
and Watford in terms of ACORN profile (right-hand scale)
Reading and Watford attract a significantly larger shopper population than High Wycombe,
whilst Maidenhead, Hemel Hempstead and Aylesbury attract fewer
Source: FSP/CACI/NSLSP
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Hemel
Hempstead
Maidenhead Reading Aylesbury Uxbridge Slough Watford High Wycombe
CorrelationCoefficient
NSLSPPrincipalShopperPopulation(k)
Shopping Population Correlation
23. Competing Centres – Merchandise Mix
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS23
The proportion of retailers by merchandise category in High Wycombe has been compared to its
competing centres.
C&F accounts for 25% of High Wycombe retailers – only Maidenhead and Slough have a lower
proportion, whilst Reading has the greatest focus on C&F retailers
F&B accounts for 15% of retailers in High Wycombe – higher than four of the centres
16% 18% 18% 14% 17% 15%
23% 23%
15% 13% 13%
15% 12% 17%
19%
14%
4% 4% 4%
4% 6%
4%
7%
6%
17% 16% 15% 17% 17% 12%
20%
18%
12% 10% 11% 11% 12%
9%
10%
9%
12%
11% 9% 10% 9%
10%
8%
11%
25% 27% 29% 28% 27%
33%
13%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%MultipleRetailerOutlets
Clothing & Footwear Household Goods Leisure Goods Personal Goods Grocery F&B Service / Other
Source: FSP/LDC
24. Competing Centres – C&F FISH Segmentation
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS24
The proportion of C&F retailers by FISH segmentation in High Wycombe has been compared to
the competing centres.
Like most of the centres, High Wycombe’s C&F offer has a strong Family focus. The lack of
differentiation establishes an opportunity for High Wycombe to develop a more unique offer to
become more competitive
Reading is weighted towards Assured, typical of Regional centres and providing a strong draw
for affluent, mobile shoppers
7%
19%
11%
3% 5%
15%
0%
5%
49%
48%
38% 55% 52% 31% 62% 55%
21%
21%
28%
22%
18% 36%
12%
9%
23%
12%
23% 20%
25%
18%
27%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%MultipleRetailerOutlets
Young Assured Family Classic
Source: FSP/LDC
25. Competing Centres – Minor Centres
Competition from Minor Centres within the High Wycombe catchment include Marlow,
Beaconsfield and Amersham. Each account for less than 3% of leakage, however, they act as
significant competitors providing a differentiated retail offer to High Wycombe – often considered
by shoppers to be quaint and upmarket and thus appealing to more affluent residents.
Marlow Located 5 miles South of High Wycombe, Marlow is a Georgian town situated on the
River Thames. The High Street offers a range of independent and upmarket national retailers
such as The White Company, Jack Wills, Space NK, and Waitrose. The F&B offer ranges from
Subway, Starbucks and Pizza Express to independent cafés and restaurants including the
Michelin two starred pub, The Hands & Flowers.
Beaconsfield Located 5 miles South East of High Wycombe, Beaconsfield is formed of the
historic Old Town and New Town. A number of national retailers include, Fat Face, Crew Clothing
and M&S Simply Food in addition to a wide selection of small, specialist shops. A monthly
farmer’s market is an addition to the retail offer, plus Beaconsfield is home to Bekonscot, the
oldest model village in the world.
Amersham Amersham is located 8 miles North East of High Wycombe. Split into two areas, Old
Amersham offers upmarket independent boutiques, whilst Amersham-on-the-Hill offers high street
retailers such as Holland & Barrett, Clarks and Waterstone’s. The F&B offer includes Costa and
Pizza Express in Amersham-on-the-Hill and independent restaurants and pubs in Old Amersham.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS25
27. NSLSP Similar Towns by ACORN Classification
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS27
The graph below uses NSLSP data to assess similarities between different towns, in terms of the
ACORN profile of and number of shoppers. The chart uses a correlation coefficient to indicate the
degree of similarity. Generally speaking, ACORN correlations need to be in excess of 0.7 to
indicate significant similarities between centres. Shopper population, shown by the bars, relates
to the left-hand scale.
Source: FSP/CACI
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
Tunbridge Wells Basingstoke Woking Leamington Spa Banbury Solihull High Wycombe
CorrelationCoefficient
NSLSPPrincipalShopperPopulation(k)
Shopping Population Correlation
28. Similar Towns by ACORN Classification
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS28
In terms of shopper ACORN profile, High Wycombe is most similar to Solihull. Both towns are
dominated by Comfortably Off shoppers whilst also have a high proportion of affluent, Wealthy
Executives shoppers. Unlike High Wycombe, the retail offer in Solihull caters well for its
affluent catchment
Banbury, Woking and Basingstoke offer a similar retail offer to High Wycombe and are not
aspirational as shopping destinations
Tunbridge Wells and Leamington Spa are comparable in terms of shopper number and profile,
however, the retail offer is superior to High Wycombe, suggesting an opportunity to improve the
quality of retail provision in High Wycombe
Zone A rent in High Wycombe in 2012 was £90/ft2 (Colliers). This is 54% cheaper than Solihull
(£195/ft2), 33% cheaper than Basingstoke (£135/ft2) and 25% cheaper than both Tunbridge
Wells and Leamington Spa (£120/ft2)
Zone A rent is the same as in both Banbury and Woking (£90/ft2)
Source: FSP/Colliers
29. Similar Towns – Merchandise Mix
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS29
The proportion of retailers by merchandise category in High Wycombe has been compared
to the similar towns.
Accounting for 25%, the proportion of C&F retailers in High Wycombe is higher than only
Woking – indicating an opportunity to increase the C&F offer in High Wycombe
F&B representation in High Wycombe is good compared to the similar towns, only less
than Woking
Source: FSP/LDC
16% 19% 19% 19% 17%
23%
14%
15% 13% 12%
17%
12%
13%
11%
4% 5% 5%
7%
5%
6%
5%
17% 11% 15%
14%
14%
14%
14%
12%
12% 11%
11%
10%
10%
8%
12%
14% 11%
9%
11%
10%
11%
25% 26% 27%
21%
30%
25%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%MultipleRetailerOutlets
Clothing & Footwear Household Goods Leisure Goods Personal Goods Grocery F&B Service / Other
30. Similar Towns – C&F FISH Segmentation
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS30
The proportion of C&F retailers by FISH segmentation in High Wycombe has been
compared to the similar towns.
High Wycombe’s C&F offer has a strong Family focus, as do the majority of similar towns
Weighted towards Assured retailers, Tunbridge Wells and Solihull are able to draw
affluent shoppers who typically seek Assured fashion
Source: FSP/LDC
7%
19%
13%
7%
18%
9%
22%
49%
29% 45%
51%
37% 57% 29%
21% 36% 19% 20% 29%
20%
34%
23%
15%
23% 22%
16% 14% 15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%MultipleRetailerOutlets
Young Assured Family Classic
31. Eden Store Selling Area vs. Benchmark
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS31
The chart shows average store selling area in
Eden, split by the older and newer part,
compared against two benchmarks (excludes
department, grocery, services and vacant
stores). The ‘Regular’ benchmark is made up of
centres offering a typical high street tenant mix,
with a Family dominated offer. The ‘Premium’
benchmark combines centres with a more
aspirational offer, attracting retailers such as
Hollister, Reiss and Phase Eight.
As a whole, Eden’s average store selling
area is on par with the ‘Regular’ benchmark,
whilst smaller than the ‘Premium’
The older part of Eden has a noticeably small
average store selling area – inadequate for
many multiple retailers
The newer part of Eden has a larger average
store selling area, similar to the ‘Premium’
benchmark
Source: FSP
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
AverageStoreSellingArea(ft2)
32. Vacancy Rates
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS32
In the current economic climate, high vacancy
rates are inevitable. 19 units within Eden are
vacant.
14 vacant units are situated in the old part
of the Centre, whilst only 5 in the new part
The average vacant store selling area
(70% conversion) within the old part of
Eden is 1,100 ft2 – substantially lower than
2,400 ft2 in the new part
The small units in the old part of the
Centre are of an inadequate size to attract
strong multiple retailers. In addition the
older part lacks an attractive environment
Current occupiers achieve 15% greater
average estimated sales density in the
newer part compared to the older part of
Eden
Source: FSP
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
5
10
15
Older Eden Newer Eden
AverageEstimatedStoreSellingArea(ft2)
CountofVacantUnits
Vacant Count Average Store Selling Area
34. Retail Supply and Demand
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS34
Comparing retail sales estimates with catchment spending highlights market shares and gaps.
FSP has analysed a range of data in order to derive a realistic estimate of the potential level of
turnover that High Wycombe can achieve – the Trading Gap.
Non-Grocery sales in High Wycombe town centre as a whole amount to an estimated £212m –
37% market share
66% of High Wycombe’s total Non-Grocery sales take place at the Eden Centre
The Trading Gap is £73m – details are described overleaf
Source: FSP
0 40 80 120 160
F&B
Leisure Goods
Household Goods
Personal Goods
Clothing & Footwear
£m
Town Retail Sales Eden Centre Retail Sales Trading Gap
Town Retail
Sales
£72m
Eden Centre
Retail Sales
£139m
Trading Gap
£73m
35. Market Share Gap – the level of additional turnover
that could be achieved by increasing the proportion of
spend of current shoppers to match that of shoppers in
similar centres – would provide additional turnover of
£45m
Shopper Gap – the value created by increasing
shopper numbers from specific underperforming areas
within the High Wycombe catchment. It is worth £20m
Catchment Gap – the value created if current shopper
penetration across the catchment can be increased
overall. High Wycombe’s current penetration is 42%,
whilst FSP’s Market Share Model predicts a
penetration of 48%, based on the scale of offer
compared to competing centres. By increasing
penetration to that predicted by the model would
provide additional turnover of £8m (see Appendix 4 for
graph)
Trading Gap
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS35
Whilst attracting all resident catchment spend to High Wycombe is not achievable, the Trading
Gap provides a realistic level of additional turnover that High Wycombe can attain. The Trading
Gap consists of three elements: the Market Share Gap, the Shopper Gap and the Catchment Gap.
FSP estimates the Trading Gap in High Wycombe to be worth an additional £73m.
Source: FSP
£45m
£20m
£8m
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Trading Gap
TurnoverUplift(£m)
Market Share Gap Shopper Gap Catchment Gap
36. C&F provides the largest opportunity to
increase turnover in High Wycombe,
with a Trading Gap of £39m. The
majority at £26m, exists within the
Market Share Gap (which can be
realised through convincing existing
High Wycombe shoppers to spend more
– typically by providing a retail/F&B offer
more closely meeting their needs and
aspirations)
Personal and Leisure Goods have a gap
of £9m and £10m, mainly available
through attracting new shoppers
Household Goods has a potential
turnover uplift of £7m, the majority
realised through existing shoppers
F&B has a potential turnover uplift of
£8m – the majority available from
existing shoppers
Trading Gap By Merchandise Category
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS36
The chart below shows the Trading Gap across the main merchandise categories, identifying
opportunities for turnover growth.
Source: FSP
26
5
1
7 6
9
3
4
2
2
3
1
2
1
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Clothing and
Footwear
Personal
Goods
Household
Goods
Leisure
Goods
F&B
TurnoverUplift(£m)
Market Share Gap Shopper Gap Catchment Gap
37. Zone 1 – 11k additional shoppers
are obtainable and potential
increase in Non-Grocery turnover
of £16m
Zone 2 – 1k additional shoppers
are obtainable and potential
increase in Non-Grocery turnover
of £2m
Zone 3 – 1k additional shoppers
are obtainable and potential
increase in Non-Grocery turnover
of £2m
Shopper Gap – Under-performing Zones
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS37
FSP has identified postal sectors within High Wycombe’s Principal catchment where the actual
shopper penetration is significantly less than the expected penetration. The map below shows the
underperforming postal sectors grouped into a zone deemed to be most achievable target for high
Wycombe.
Source: FSP/CES
38. Shopper Gap – By ACORN
Zone 1, situated in the centre
of High Wycombe, is the least
affluent, but most valuable
zone
Zone 2 is the most similar to
the High Wycombe catchment
Zone 3 is the most affluent
The affluent profiles of Zones
2 and 3 reinforce the
suggestion that High
Wycombe fails to successfully
attract the most affluent
shoppers
Effective targeting of these
zones would require a
significant change in retail
offer. The challenge will be
increased when the Out of
Town John Lewis store adds
fashion later this year
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS38
Source: FSP/CES
48%
27%
51%
70%
8%
14%
9%
8%
27%
35%
27%
12%
7%
16%
3%
10% 8% 10% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High Wycombe
Catchment
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
%ofResidents
Wealthy Achievers Urban Prosperity Comfortably Off Moderate Means Hard-Pressed
40. Passing Rent – Sustainability
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS40
In standard FSP reports, rent sustainability is assessed on two dimensions: Corporate Risk and
Unit Risk.
Corporate Risk
Refers to the level of risk associated with the business overall. For example, HMV may have
been performing well in High Wycombe, but financial vulnerability across the Company has put
the individual store in jeopardy. Corporate Risk is assessed using information from Company
Accounts that is in the public domain and is shown in this example report. Corporate risk can be
assessed only for retailers that file annual accounts at Companies House.
Unit Risk
This refers to the health of a particular retail unit. For example, Next is financially healthy as an
overall business. However, for various reasons, Next might not trade well in every location.
Assessing unit risk requires the use of sensitive, and usually confidential, information (e.g. annual
rent per unit). In this Demonstration report, the unit risk section is fictitious; it is not indicative of
trading in High Wycombe town centre, and is provided only as a visual aid. It will be made clear
which charts are examples, and which are based on actual data in the following pages.
This section is for example purposes only and does not reflect the true sustainability of
Eden’s retailers.
41. Passing Rent – Sustainability
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS41
The Demonstration chart shows the
proportion of rent in Eden deemed
Thriving, Viable and Vulnerable
As a whole, Eden is Viable, with
Sustainable Rent 8% below Passing Rent
39% of rent is Thriving, largely driven by
Marks and Spencer
42% of rent is deemed as Viable
19% of rent is deemed Vulnerable,
predominantly driven by Gap and Lush
Source: FSP
For an explanation of how FSP calculates Sustainable Rents, please refer to Appendix 5.
Vulnerable
19%
Viable
42%
Thriving
39%
42. Retailer Sustainability
The majority of merchandise categories are deemed Viable. C&F is particularly strong with
Sustainable Rent 15% above Passing
Leisure Goods and F&B categories are both Vulnerable
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS42
Source: FSP
Total Gross
Lettable
Selling
Space
Space
Conversion
Est Sales
Density
Est Gross
Turnover
Passing
Rent
Sustainable
Rent
Merchandise Category ft
2
ft
2 % £/ft
2
£k £k £k £k %
Clothing and footwear 311,155 191,178 63 397 76 752 862 110 15
Personal 57,433 42,336 36 593 25 830 686 - 144 - 17
Household 59,711 42,602 40 469 20 140 138 - 2 - 2
Leisure 31,558 20,266 56 518 11 489 340 - 150 - 31
F&B 42,359 25,250 68 313 7,906 256 183 - 73 - 29
Total Unit Shops 502,216 321,632 64 25 8,038 2,467 2,208 - 259 - 10
Grocery 4,446 3,432 77 510 1,749 262 292 30 12
Total Non-Grocery/Grocery 506,662 325,064 64 30 9,787 2,729 2,500 - 229 - 8
Example Summary Schedule
Sustainable over Passing
43. Financial Risk Matrix
The Financial Risk Matrix (overleaf) classifies retailers according to the Department for Business,
Innovation and Skills (BIS) Wealth Creation Index (see Appendix 6 for definitions) – Very Worrying,
Head Above Water or Healthy. FSP compares this to individual unit risk – Vulnerable, Viable or
Thriving within Eden. By definition, the analysis deals with historical accounts data and in a period
of high retail instability, like the present time, retailers’ viability can change substantially from one
accounting period to the next.
It should be stressed that FSP’s Sustainability model assumes retailers will be seeking to achieve
at least their average portfolio Return on Trading Assets (ROTA). Thus, retailers showing as
Vulnerable are not necessarily losing money, but may be achieving a below average return.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS43
44. Financial Risk – Passing Rent Matrix Example
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS44
Source: FSP
The chart below is an example, showing what a standard FSP Risk Matrix would look like if the
relevant rental information were provided. Note – the Unit Risk shown below is also example only.
Vulnerable Viable Thriving
CorporateRisk
Unit Risk
Very
Worrying
Head Above
Water
Healthy
M&S
21%
15%
3%
19%
17%
6%
8%
6%
5%
Starbucks
PandoraGames Workshop
Monsoon
Office
Boots
Clarks
Ernest Jones
River IslandWaterstones
New Look
Holland & Barrett
Herbert Brown
Nando's
Subway
Cineworld
Apricot
Superdry
Charles Fish
H. Samuel
Ann Summers
Cargo
The Fragrance Shop Zara
Claire's
House of Fraser
F.Hinds
Jones Bootmaker
Blue Inc.
Linens Direct Clintons Beaverbrooks
H&M L'Occitane
YO! Sushi Thorntons
Mothercare
Gap
Lush
Bhs
HMV
Muse
Build A Bear Workshop
Two Seasons
Bijou Brigitte
Next
Zizzi
45. Corporate Risk Commentary
BIS Very Worrying – 5% of Passing Rent subject to analysis by BIS methodology.
Lush – Medium Risk – £12.6m is owed to group undertakings
Gap – Medium Risk – there has been substantial re-organisation of the European operations
and there has been an undertaking by Gap Inc. to support the Company for at least another 12
months. £20.1m is owed to subsidiary undertakings
Muse – Medium Risk – £1.8bn is owed to group undertakings under long term creditors
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS45
46. Unit Risk Commentary
A further 14% from rent is from retailers deemed as Vulnerable by unit risk, but Head Above Water
or Healthy by Corporate risk – indicating Vulnerability is specific to Eden.
An example of these retailers include:
Cargo – significantly undersized unit compared to the retailer’s FSP audited average, plus a
high rent per ft². A larger unit with lower rent per ft² could be more suitable for Cargo
Waterstone’s – poor sales, which is an on-going company wide problem, and above average
rent per ft² for this retailer
Games Workshop – low estimated sales density for the retailer. With an above average store
size for Games Workshop, a smaller unit could provide better sales densities
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS46
47. Sustainable Rents Centre Plan
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS47
Source: FSP/GOAD
An example of a Sustainable Rent plan of Eden is shown, classified by unit risk – Vulnerable,
Viable or Thriving.
49. Eden Sales & Selling Area by Category
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS49
The proportion of selling area and
sales by merchandise category in
Eden have been compared to a
benchmark proportions of centres of a
similar size.
Eden is dominated by C&F in terms
of sales and selling area
There is a greater focus on
Personal Goods in Eden compared
to benchmark centres, driven by
the good provision of Jewellers and
Toiletries retailers
Leisure and Household Goods
have less significance in Eden
compared to benchmark in terms of
sales and selling area
F&B is marginally below
benchmark in terms of sales and
selling area and developing the
F&B offer would provide positives
for the Centre
Source: FSP
54
46
59
51
18
14
13
10
14
19
13
18
8
14
6
12
6 7 8 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Eden Sales Benchmark Sales Eden Selling Area Benchmark Selling
Area
%
F&B Leisure Household Personal Clothing and footwear
50. Clothing & Footwear Supply and Demand by FISH
The pie charts below show the distribution of C&F turnover based on the FISH segmentation of
retailers (see Appendix 7 for full FISH definitions). FISH segments shoppers by their attitude
towards themselves, their self-image, and by their attitude towards their purchase, what they hope
it will say about them.
The largest market is the Assured segment, accounting for 36% of High Wycombe’s shopper
spend. This is followed by the Young, then Family segments
The Family segment accounts for 46% of High Wycombe sales – an over-provision, creating a
significant relative under-provision in the Assured segment
Eden sales are better proportioned with shopper spend, indicating a more appropriate offer in
the Centre for its catchment, whilst having a slight under-provision in Assured
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS50
Source: FSP/CES
23%
36%
22%
15%
4%
Catchment Shopper Spend
Young Assured Family Classic Old
20%
22%
46%
11%
1%
High Wycombe Sales
Young Assured Family Classic Old
26%
30%
28%
15%
1%
Eden Sales
Young Assured Family Classic Old
51. Clothing & Footwear Market Segmentation
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS51
Source: FSP
Fashionable Individual Safe
Assured
Classic
Family
Young
House of Fraser
M&S Bhs
Ann
Summers
Next
Topshop/ Topman
H&MRiver Island
Zara
Primark
Burton
WallisMonsoon
Gap
Clarks Mothercare
Office
Sports Direct
JD Sports
Millets
Dorothy Perkins/ Burton
ShoeZone
New Look
Evans
Eden Centre shops
Town Centre shops
Sports Crest
Jones Bootmaker
Glance
Bango MangoApricot
Sainsbury's
Superdry
Tesco
Chevi
Roman
Two Seasons
Blue Inc.
Stride In
PMG Schoolwear
Stunning Brides
Top Class Fashions
Trinity
Blacks
52. Clothing & Footwear Market Segmentation
Whilst providing retailers across the range of FISH categories, a clear focus on Family
retailers in High Wycombe is apparent
Eden, in particular, covers a good variety of retailers, reasonably positioned for its shoppers
A decent selection of Young retailers are provided within the Centre, particularly falling into
Young Fashionable
Eden also provides a reasonable Assured offer, with strong nationals such as Next, Monsoon,
Zara and Office
Classic retailing in High Wycombe is limited. However, Bhs, House of Fraser and Marks &
Spencer do cater for this market
A high proportion of Safe retailers, defined as ‘value for money’, suggests a different type of
shopper is using High Wycombe compared to the wealthy ACORN profile of the catchment.
Greater focus on Classic Individual and Assured retailers would appeal to the more affluent
residents
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS52
53. Absent Retailers by FISH
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS53
The C&F Trading Gap amounts
to £39m. The breakdown is
shown on the following grid
using indicative retailers.
At £15m, the Assured
segment provides the
greatest opportunity to
increase C&F turnover
The Young segment also
provides a significant
opportunity at £14m
Source: FSP/CES
Fashionable Individual Safe Homely
Old
Family
Classic
Young
Assured
Edinburgh
WoollenMill
Damart
£14m
£15m
£1m
£9m
£1m
54. Absent Retailer – Similar Towns
The list below includes a range of retailers which do not currently trade in High Wycombe. Those
with an asterisk are located in the similar towns identified earlier in the report. A convincing case
could be put to these retailers to locate in High Wycombe.
54
Source: FSP
Clothing and Footwear Personal Household Leisure Catering
Animal* Schuh* Crabtree & Evelyn* Bang & Olufsen The Disney Store Cafe Rouge*
Bank* Select* David Clulow* Cath Kidston* Cotswold Outdoor* Coal Grill & Bar
Bravissimo* Suit Direct Fossil UK Lakeland* Modelzone* Cornish Pasty Co, The
Cotton Traders Timberland Links of London Laura Ashley* Mountain Warehouse* Giraffe
Fat Face* White Stuff* Molton Brown* Maplin* Snappy Snaps* Gourmet Burger Kitchen
Foot Asylum* EAST* Neal's Yard Remedies MenKind Sweatshop Handmade Burger Co.
Foot Locker JoJo Maman Bebe Ollie & Nic Muji Trespass* Jamie's Italian
Hotter* Pull and Bear Space NK* Steamer Trading Las Iguanas
Internacionale* Sunglass Hut* The White Company Lavazza Espression
Joules* Millies Cookies
Mango Grocery Patisserie Valerie
Phase Eight* Hotel Chocolat* Strada*
Quiz*
56. Recommendations & Conclusion
High Wycombe represents a category of shopping centre that, lying outside the Top 100, requires
energetic, active asset management to fully optimise potential. To have national representation,
retailers do not “need” to trade from High Wycombe.
However, with an affluent catchment and strong shopper penetration, High Wycombe has the
potential to be a flourishing retail destination. At present, High Wycombe ineffectively exploits the
affluent residents within its catchment.
FSP recommends that Eden establishes a slightly more upmarket appeal in order to target a
greater proportion of affluent residents by strengthening the Assured offer through targeting
retailers that could realistically fit its trading profile. Whilst strengthening the Assured offer to a
modest degree, the Centre should continue to capitalise on the current Young/ Family appeal in
conjunction with F&B and leisure provision to improve Eden as a destination.
Eden is hampered by the current provision of retail accommodation in the older, original part of the
Centre which is unattractive and unlikely to appeal to new retailers so should consider the
cost/benefit of developing the old part of the Centre up to the standard of the new.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS56
57. Recommendations & Conclusion
The attraction of the town overall needs to improve for High Wycombe to fully optimise its
potential. There is ample reason to believe that High Wycombe can be a thriving centre of
retailing in the foreseeable future if town stakeholders develop a clear vision and pursue it
forcefully.
FSP
June 2013
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS57
58. FSP RETAIL BUSINESS
CONSULTANTS
19 Manor Courtyard
Hughenden Avenue
High Wycombe
UK, HP13 5RE
T +44(0)1494 474740
F +44(0)1494 474262
fspretail@fspretail.com
www.fspretail.com
www.snap-shop.co.uk
Jo Hewson
Managing Director
T+44(0)1494 474740
M+44(0)7771528792
F+44(0)1494 474262
Jo@fspretail.com
John Fell
Director
T+44(0)1494 474740
M+44(0)7970 880375
F+44(0)1494 474262
John@fspretail.com
Ken Gunn
Director
T+44(0)1494 474740
M+44(0)7773 779919
F+44(0)1494 474262
Ken@fspretail.com
64. Catchment Demographics – Socio-Economic Grade
The SEG profiles show the socio-
economic grade of High Wycombe
residents.
65% of High Wycombe’s
catchment residents fall into the
wealthiest SEG profiles, AB and
C1, respectively 52% and 8%
above UK average
Although less affluent than the
Secondary and Tertiary segments,
the Primary segment contains
much higher proportions of ABC1’s
than the UK average
This is driven by affluent
neighbourhoods such as Daws Hill,
Hazlemere and Hughenden Valley
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS64
AB C1 C2 DE
Primary 125 104 96 83
Secondary 167 112 67 61
Tertiary 169 111 67 61
Total 152 108 78 69
High Wycombe % 33 32 12 23
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160Above
UK
Average
Neutral
Below
UK
Average
Index = UK
Source: FSP/CES
65. Catchment Demographics – ACORN profile
Catchment residents have been
classified by ACORN (A
Classification Of Residential
Neighbourhoods).
High Wycombe’s catchment is
dominated by Wealthy Achievers
– 90% above UK average, with
proportions greatest in the
Secondary segment
Within the Wealthy Achievers
Category, 32% fall into the very
high spending Wealthy Executives
Group
Extremely high proportions of
Wealthy Achievers result in below
UK average representation of less
affluent Categories
Comfortably Off are 24% above
UK average in the Primary
segment
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS65
Source: FSP/CACI
Wealthy
Achievers
Urban
Prosperity
Comfortably
Off
Moderate
Means
Hard-
Pressed
Primary 125 98 124 80 53
Secondary 241 37 76 47 33
Tertiary 220 52 90 24 47
Total 190 65 99 50 46
UK % 25 12 27 14 21
High Wycombe % 48 8 27 7 10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
%
Total
High Wycombe %
Neutral
Below UK
Average
Above UK
Average
Full ACORN definitions can be found in Appendix 2.
66. Resident Spend
Household Goods and Clothing & Footwear (C&F) are the largest markets, annually worth
£368m and £342m (including 10% pull-in)
Food & Beverage (F&B) is also a large market, annual worth £260m (including 10% pull-in)
Spend levels are highest in the Tertiary segment at £539m, accounting for 42% of the Principal
catchment spend
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS66
Source: FSP/NSLSP
0 50 100 150
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
F&B
Resident Spend (£m)
Primary Spend Secondary Spend Tertiary Spend
Primary
Spend,
£452m
Secondary
Spend,
£286m
Tertiary
Spend,
£539m
67. FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Appendix 3: ACORN Category
and Group Definitions
68. What is ACORN?
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
What is ACORN:
ACORN is a geodemographic segmentation of the UK’s
population which segments small neighbourhoods, postcodes, or
consumer households into 5 categories, 17 groups and 56 types.
ACORN provides understanding of the people who interact with
your organisation. It helps you learn the who, what, where, when,
how, and why of their relationship with you.
This can help you to target, acquire, manage and develop
profitable relationships and improve business results. The
classification also gives a better understanding of places and the
people who use them.
Who uses ACORN?
Retailers, financial organisations, and over 200 public sector
organisations use CACI data to provide an accurate picture of the
needs of their customers and local communities.
ACORN is used to understand customers’ lifestyle, behaviour and
attitudes, or the needs of neighbourhoods and people’s public
service needs. It is used to analyse customers, identify profitable
prospects, evaluate local markets and focus on the specific needs
of each local community.
You can learn more about your customers’ behaviour and identify
prospects who most resemble your best customers by adding
ACORN codes to a customer database.
Such an understanding of the ACORN characteristics of a market
can also be used to drive effective customer communication
strategies
ACORN - Categories and Groups
Category Group
Wealthy Achievers
1
A Wealthy Executives
B Affluent Greys
C Flourishing Families
Urban Prosperity
2
D Prosperous Professionals
E Educated Urbanites
F Aspiring Singles
Comfortably Off
3
G Starting Out
H Secure Families
I Settled Suburbia
J Prudent Pensioners
Moderate Means
4
K Asian Communities
L Post-Industrial Families
M Blue-Collar Roots
Hard-Pressed
5
N Struggling Families
O Burdened Singles
P High-Rise Hardship
Q Inner City Adversity
68
69. What is ACORN
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
What do the ACORN Categories mean?
Category 1: Wealthy Achievers
Some of the most successful and affluent people in the UK. Living in wealthy, high status rural, semi-rural and suburban areas. Middle aged or older people
predominate, with many empty nesters and wealthy retired. Living in large houses, which are usually detached with four or more bedrooms. Almost 90% are owner
occupiers, with half owning their home outright. Very well educated and most are employed in managerial and professional occupations, or business owners.
Incomes are high, as are levels of savings and investments. Well established at the top of the social ladder. They enjoy all the advantages of being healthy, wealthy
and confident consumers and place emphasis on quality products, classic design and excellent service.
Category 2: Urban Prosperity
These are well educated and mostly prosperous people living in our major towns and cities. They include both older wealthy people living in the most exclusive
urban areas, and highly educated younger professionals moving up the corporate ladder. This category also includes some well educated, but less affluent
individuals, such as students and graduates in their first jobs. The wealthier people tend to be in senior managerial or professional careers, and often live in large
terraced or detached houses with four or more bedrooms. Some of the younger professionals may be buying or renting flats. These like to eat out in restaurants, go
to the theatre and cinema and make the most of the culture and nightlife of the big city.
Category 3: Comfortably Off
This category contains much of ‘middle-of-the-road’ Britain. Most people are comfortably off. They may not be wealthy, but they have few major financial worries. All
lifestages are represented in this category. Most people own their own home, with owner occupation exceeding 80%. Most houses are semi-detached or detached.
Employment is in a mix of professional and managerial, clerical and skilled occupations. Educational qualifications tend to be in line with the national average. This
category incorporates the home-owning, stable and fairly comfortable backbone of modern Britain.
Category 4: Moderate Means
Many people are employed in traditional, blue collar occupations. Others have become employed in service and retail jobs as the employment landscape has
changed. In the better off areas, incomes are in line with the national average and people have reasonable standards of living. However, in other areas, incomes
can fall below the national average. There are also some isolated pockets of unemployment and long term illness. This category also includes some
neighbourhoods with very high concentrations of Asian families on low incomes. Most housing is terraced, with two or three bedrooms, and largely owner occupied.
It includes many former council houses, bought by their tenants in the1980s.
Category 5: Hard-Pressed
This category contains the poorest areas of the UK. Unemployment is well above the national average. Those in work are likely to be employed in unskilled
occupations. Household incomes are low and there are high levels of long term illness in some areas. Housing is a mix of low rise estates, terraced or semi-
detached houses, and purpose built flats. Over 50% of the housing is rented from the local council or a housing association. There are a large number of single
adult households, including many single pensioners and lone parents. In some neighbourhoods, there are high numbers of black and Asian residents.
69
70. Category 1: Wealthy Achievers
Group A: Wealthy Executives
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Wealthy Executives are some of the most affluent people in the UK
Living in wealthy, rural and semi-rural areas of the country e.g. Guildford & Beaconsfield
Households are a mix of middle-aged families, empty nesters and wealthy retired
Well-educated individuals with high levels of academic qualifications
Most employed in senior managerial and professional occupations or are running their own businesses
High incomes and high disposable incomes
Discerning individuals - demand high levels of service and willing to travel to purchase the products
they desire
John Lewis is their first preference for clothing, furniture and electrical appliances
Wealthy
Executives,
8%
% UK
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
70
71. Category 1: Wealthy Achievers
Group B: Affluent Greys
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
The Affluent Greys tend to be older empty nesters and retired couples, they are prosperous, live in
detached homes and many have more than one car
Many live in rural towns and villages, often in areas where tourism is important
Employment is typically in managerial and professional roles. Given the rural locations, farming is also
a common occupation
These are high income households and even those that have retired have good incomes
The majority own their homes outright, and with no mortgage to pay are able to invest their money in a
wide range of financial products
These older, affluent people have the money and the time to enjoy life
Affluent
Greys,
8%
% UK
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Young Assured Family Classic Old
71
72. Category 1: Wealthy Achievers
Group C: Flourishing Families
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Flourishing Families
Features
These are wealthy families with mortgages. They live in established suburbs, new housing
developments around commuter towns, villages and rural areas
Younger than other affluent groups, most households are still paying mortgages
Incomes are good since many have managerial and professional occupations
Car ownership is high and many of these families will have two or more cars
These families are usually financially secure with a variety of savings and investments
They take regular holidays, including long haul, skiing and summer sun
PC ownership is common and they are comfortable with new technology
% UK Flourishing
Families, 8%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
72
73. Category 2: Urban Prosperity
Group D: Prosperous Professionals
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
These are the most prosperous people living in our main cities
Households are a mix of families, couples, singles and some retired
Property is a mix of terraced and detached houses, and converted and purpose built flats in affluent
neighbourhoods
Very well educated and employed in senior managerial and professional occupations
High incomes and high levels of savings and investments
Car ownership is high, although travel to work is often by public transport
Technologically sophisticated, they regularly use the Internet for financial services, and buying products
and services
Interests include theatre, the arts, classical music and F&B in good restaurants
% UK Prosperous
Professionals,
2%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
73
74. Category 2: Urban Prosperity
Group E: Educated Urbanites
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
These young people are highly qualified. The majority live in flats in our major cities
Most are in professional and managerial roles and many are working hard to further their careers
They have high incomes, and those who have been working for some time will be buying their flats
and making other financial investments. Others are renting and have high disposable incomes
The one significant purchase they may make is an expensive car. However, many prefer to use
public transport, particularly for travelling to work
This Group will spend significant amounts on travel and take frequent holidays. They are very likely to
go on long haul trips and will either ski or seek the sun in the winter
% UK Educated
Urbanites, 7%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
74
75. Category 2: Urban Prosperity
Group F: Aspiring Singles
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Aspiring Singles are young and live in urban or suburban locations, frequently around London
Large numbers are students and well qualified young people who have recently finished their studies
and started working
Many live in rented flats. The flats tend to be small, typically one or two bedrooms, and located in
basements or above shops
These are quite mobile populations with a high turnover of residents
People lead urban lifestyles. They enjoy going out with friends to pubs, clubs and coffee shops
Cars are relatively rare so transport is by bus, train, tube, or walking
Many of these active young people are likely to develop well-paid careers in the future
% UK Aspiring Singles,
4%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
75
76. Category 3: Comfortably Off
Group G: Starting Out
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
These are young adults, in their twenties and early thirties, many just starting out in their careers
Large numbers of students and young singles in their first jobs, as well as young couples and some
young families with children under five
Housing is a mix of two or three bedroom terraced houses, and converted and purpose built flats
Houses are bought on a first mortgage or rented from private landlords. Many of the students and
young single professionals in this group will be house or flat sharers
Most individuals are well educated to A-level and degree standard
Incomes tend to be good and levels of savings and investments above the national average
% UK Starting Out,
4%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
76
77. Category 3: Comfortably Off
Group H: Secure Families
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
A mix of home-owning families and empty nesters living comfortably in stable suburban and semi-
rural locations
Housing is mainly three bedroom, semi-detached homes
Families might include young children, teenagers or even young adults still living at home
Employment covers a range of occupations including middle management, clerical roles, shop work
and skilled manual work
Incomes are at least average. Most have some savings and consider themselves financially prudent
The more affluent have good company cars and savings and investments
These are the stable suburban families that make up much of middle Britain
% UK
Secure Families,
14%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
77
78. Category 3: Comfortably Off
Group I: Settled Suburbia
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Empty nesters and retired older couples dominate
Homes are two and three bedroom semi-detached houses and bungalows. Many owned outright
Workers are in a mix of lower management, supervisory, manufacturing and retail jobs
Salaries are modest and many women work part-time to boost the overall household income
Many have a reasonable disposable income, and some investments for security after retirement
They enjoy holidays in the UK and Europe, in both winter and summer
Gardening is a popular activity
While most people get their news from TV, the Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper
% UK
Settled
Suburbia, 6%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
78
79. Category 3: Comfortably Off
Group J: Prudent Pensioners
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Comfortably retired and found in many seaside towns and elsewhere around the country
Many over 75s as well as younger retired. Households are a mix of pensioner couples and singles.
Retirement homes are also common
Housing tends to be flats, either converted or low rise purpose built. Many are owner occupied and
often of high value; others are privately rented. Holiday homes are also common
Well educated, and those who are not retired are employed in managerial and professional
occupations
Most have a comfortable standard of living having provided for their old age with above average
levels of savings and investments
These sophisticated senior citizens are both financially smart and socially active
% UK
Prudent
Pensioners,
4%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
79
80. Category 4: Moderate Means
Group K: Asian Communities
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
These young families live in the terraced streets of many major cities, including Birmingham, Bradford
and London
These families feature the highest levels of children under the age of five.
Qualification levels tend to be low and unemployment levels are high. People typically work in routine
manual roles or in the retail sector
With low incomes and large families to support there is little discretionary spend. They rarely go on
holiday and rely on home-based entertainment
For many, religion is very important and plays a major role in their social and family lives
Like all young families, they are striving to create a bright future for their children.
% UK
Asian Communities,
1%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
80
81. Category 4: Moderate Means
Group L: Post-Industrial Families
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Living in three bedroom terraced houses, which tend to be at the cheaper end of the housing market
Most families are owner occupiers, but a number rent their houses from the local council
Most households are traditional families with school age children.
Employment tends to be office or clerical jobs and in shops
Incomes are most likely to be around the national average. Spending on credit cards is low and they
are careful with their money
Most families can afford to run a car and to take a holiday every year, often a package holiday to the
Mediterranean
% UK
Post-Industrial
Families, 4%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
81
82. Category 4: Moderate Means
Group M: Blue-Collar Roots
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Most employment is in traditional blue collar occupations
Families and retired people predominate with some young singles and single parents
Many own 2-3 bedroom terraced houses, with a mortgage. Others rent privately or from local
authorities and housing associations
Levels of educational qualifications tend to be low. Most employment is in factory and other manual
occupations. There are many shop workers as well
Incomes range from moderate to low and unemployment is higher than the national average, as is
long term illness. There are pockets of deprivation in this group
There are some households with high levels of debt
These people have a modest lifestyle, but most are able to get by
% UK
Blue-Collar
Roots, 8%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
82
83. Category 5: Hard-Pressed
Group N: Struggling Families
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Low income families living on traditional low-rise estates. Some have bought their council houses, but
most continue to rent
Homes are typically terraced or semi-detached two bedroom properties. Larger families may be
housed in three bedroom properties
Incomes are low and unemployment relatively high
Jobs reflect the general lack of educational qualifications and are in factories, shops and other
manual occupations
Money is tight and shopping tends to focus on cheaper stores and catalogues
Educational under-achievement results in lack of opportunity and they struggle to get by in an
otherwise affluent Britain
% UK
Struggling
Families,
12%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
83
84. Category 5: Hard-Pressed
Group O: Burdened Singles
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
This urban group is characterised by high numbers of single adults. These include single pensioners,
young singles and lone parents
Homes are purpose built flats or small terraced houses, the majority of which are rented from the
council or a housing association
The working population is employed in routine, manual and retail occupations
The overall level of household incomes is very low. Unemployment levels are above average and
long term illness levels are high
With such low incomes, these households have little, if any, discretionary spend
Life for this group is undoubtedly difficult, with restricted finances and employment opportunities. For
most, there is little realistic chance of immediate improvement.
% UK
Burdened
Singles, 5%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
84
85. Category 5: Hard-Pressed
Group P: High-Rise Hardship
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
Many older residents, especially over 65s. There are few traditional families and middle aged people
Not many households have children, although some areas contain high numbers of single parents
with children under 5.
The majority live in purpose built flats, mostly rented from the local authority or housing associations
Flats are small, usually one or two bedrooms, and often in high rise blocks. Levels of owner
occupation are very low
Neighbourhoods are relatively deprived and contain some of the UK’s highest levels of
unemployment and long term illness
Those in work are likely to be employed in manual and factory jobs or work in shops
% UK High-Rise
Hardship, 2%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
85
86. Category 5: Hard-Pressed
Group Q: Inner City Adversity
What is ACORN? FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Features
This group is young and multi-ethnic, primarily living in densely populated urban areas in and around
London. 25% of the population is black and 14% is Asian
Households are typically young singles, young families, and single parents
Homes are small flats in purpose built blocks, normally rented from the council or housing association
Unemployment levels are almost double the national average
Household incomes are very low with many earning less than £10,000 per annum
There is little money left for discretionary spending, particularly for those with young families
Car ownership is very low and everyone is dependent on public transport.
% UK Inner City
Adversity, 2%
60 80 100 120 140
Clothing & Footwear
Personal Goods
Household Goods
Leisure Goods
Food & Beverage
Index GB = 100
Distribution MapKey Retailers Spending Behaviour Clothing & Footwear
FISH Expenditure
Young Assured Family Classic Old
86
88. Market Share Model
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS88
Source: FSP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
PredictedMarketShare
Actual Market Share
High Wycombe
89. Trading Gap By ACORN Group – Market Share Gap
The Market Share Gap can be realised by encouraging existing shoppers to spend more. FSP has
divided the Market Share Gap by ACORN Group to determine shoppers with the greatest potential.
Worth £12m, Wealthy Executives offer the most value in terms of Market Share Gap, accounting
for 29% of the potential turnover, but are likely to be the most difficult to attract
Secure Families are also worth a considerable amount – £7m or 18% of the Market Share Gap
The majority of potential turnover uplift is available from within the Primary segment (56%)
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS89
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
MarketShareGap(£m)
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Source: FSP
90. Trading Gap By ACORN Group – Shopper and
Catchment
The Shopper Gap can be addressed by attracting new shoppers from underperforming areas.
FSP has divided the Shopper Gap by ACORN Group to determine shoppers with the greatest
potential.
Worth £16m, Wealthy Achievers offer the most value in terms of Shopper and Catchment Gap,
accounting for 26% of the potential turnover
Secure Families are also worth a considerable amount at £12m – 19% of the Shopper and
Catchment Gap
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS90
Source: FSP
0
2
4
6
8
10
ShopperGap(£m)
Primary Secondary Tertiary
92. Methodology
FSP routinely analyses the audited accounts of major retailers trading in the UK.
From this analysis FSP produces an model account for each retailer which includes:
Gross margin – a key factor in the retailer business model
Employment costs
Shopfitting costs and depreciation
Stockturn
Occupancy costs
Promotion and Admin costs
From this analysis, it is possible to identify a model ‘Sustainable’ Rent – the proportion of
turnover each retailer is able to afford as rent and still deliver their required Return on Trading
Assets (ROTA)
Actual sales data is combined with information from the audit. Where sales data is not
available the auditor will produce an estimate
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS92
93. Methodology
VAT is removed from the sales estimate (taking into account the likely proportion of VAT-free
goods sold), and the model ‘affordable’ rent proportion is applied to generate a ‘Sustainable’
Rent for each unit
Actual sales density is also compared with model density and appropriate factoring applied if
actual density exceeds model – this allows over-performing retailers to be fully recognised and
Sustainable Rent adjusted accordingly
This is then compared to Passing Rent/ERV to indicate unit viability in each year. Units are
classified as:
Thriving (Sustainable Rent is more than 25% higher than Passing Rent/ERV)
Viable (Sustainable Rent is broadly in line with Passing Rent/ERV)
Vulnerable (Sustainable Rent is more than 25% lower than Passing Rent/ERV)
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS93
95. BIS Wealth Creation Index Definitions
The Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS), a successor to the Department of Trade and
Industry (DTI), inherited responsibility for promoting the use of the Wealth Creation Efficiency Index as a
measure of financial health that is applicable across all types of industry.
The Wealth Creation Efficiency Index (also known as P2) is calculated from company accounts by
expressing Value Added (sales less cost of bought-in goods and services) as a percentage of employment
and depreciation costs. Value Added is also equivalent to EBITDA plus employment costs.
P2 (Wealth Creation Efficiency Index) of less than 100 indicates that, in the year in question, the company
failed to generate sufficient added value to cover its costs of creating that profit. Such a performance is
unsustainable without continuing investment, either from retained profits or further investment by the
shareholders. Companies during their start-up phase or companies that are expanding very rapidly may
fall into this category.
For ease of presentation, the P2 scores have been divided into categories of:
Very Worrying – indices below 100
Head above Water – indices from 100 to 124
Healthy – indices 125 and above
With the average P2 of the top 800 UK companies being around 160, in some analyses this category can
be further sub-divided, but in this case is not relevant.
While the P2 category for a single year is useful, it is only a snapshot. Analysis of the P2 for a longer
period may indicate a direction of travel and be more informative.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS95
97. Introduction
Shopping Centres, Outlet Centres and increasingly Retail Parks rely upon an appropriate mix of
fashion retailers to attract, engage and delight shoppers.
Age and Image self perceptions underpin fashion purchasing decisions and Fashion retailers tend
to be positioned to serve specific market niches.
Age perception – expressed as the consumer’s own ‘thinking age’: i.e. how young or old do I
feel?
Image perception – what image does the consumer wish to convey about themselves through
the merchandise and the brand label: i.e. stylish or safe and sensible?
Consumer segmentations tend to standardise these ‘attitudes’
FISH is FSP’s bespoke method of defining customer segmentation.
Over a decade FSP has devised and refined FISH to uniquely classify occupiers as well as
consumers.
FISH based retail mix strategies:
Focus upon shopper needs not benchmarks
Take account of local capacity, market share gaps and occupier performance
Allow for consumers’ flexible purchasing activity e.g. Assured at work, Fashionable at play
Give precise recommendations of target retailers
Describe the opportunity in the same way occupiers see their market
Directly match demand to occupiers
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS97
98. Age Perception
Fashion purchasing behaviour is largely determined by consumers’ self perception of their own
‘thinking age’ e.g. “How young or old do I feel?”, and “ What age-related values do I seek to
project?”
Young – Peer pressure to conform is strong and fashion is a powerful identifying statement.
Assured – Young, but no longer immature, or led by peer group pressure. They are able to
make up their own minds, are sophisticated in their choices, but do not adopt the attitudes,
lifestyles or values typical of older self-perception groups
Family – Dominated by the financial considerations of running the home and caring for the
family, therefore precedence comes before self-indulgence. Members can, and often do,
‘migrate’ temporarily to the Assured or Classic segments when spending on discretionary or
‘special occasion’ purchases however, this depends on how much is available after essential
family spending
Classic – Typically, though not universally, Post-Family and includes ‘empty-nesters’. In self-
perception terms members have many similarities with Assured, differing only in possessing less
self-confidence about the ‘rightness’ of purchase decisions, often expressed in terms such as ‘it’s
a bit young for me’
Old – No longer want to make any positive statements about themselves through their
purchases. Can typically be summarised as, ‘given up’
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS98
99. Image Perception
There are four key image perceptions consumers hold about merchandise:
Fashionable – Attitudes are concerned with purchases which demonstrate the individual's
fashionability – being 'up to the minute'. Adherence to peer group dress codes and other tokens
of group identity are of overriding importance
Individual – Purchased which demonstrate enough 'savoir faire' to distinguish between
transitory fashion and taste. The consumer knows what suits his/her lifestyle and is able to make
up his/her own mind
It is important that the purchase should not be recognisable as being from a particular shop while
branded goods must fulfil a clearly defined need. Style, individuality and exclusivity are
important.
Safe – ‘Value for money' for merchandise with “good enough” performance. These include many
mass-market branded products, which do not make distinctive claims for performance, and
goods recommended in “Which?” magazine
This is a particularly important area for those whose self perception is Assured, Family or Classic
and who see themselves as having less discretionary spending and who play safe in their
purchase decisions.
Homely – These are purchases where the requirement is for no projection of particular values at
all and items are bought purely for replacement. Price is important for goods whose main
attribute is ‘utility’
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS99
100. Example Retailers
Fashionable –
Demonstrates
fashionability
Individual –
demonstrates
taste beyond
transitory fashion
Safe – ‘value for
money’ merchandise
with good enough
performance
Homely – Items are bought
purely for replacement.
Price is important for
goods whose main
attribute is utility
Young – peer pressure to conform
is strong and fashion is a powerful
identifying statement
Assured– able to make up own
mind and sophisticated in choice
Family – dominated by the
financial considerations of running
the home and caring for the family
Classic – typically Post-Family.
Many similarities with Assured,
but less self confidence about the
‘rightness’ of purchase decisions
Old – ‘given up’. Not seeking to
make a statement about
themselves through their
purchases
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS100
101. FSP RETAIL BUSINESS
CONSULTANTS
19 Manor Courtyard
Hughenden Avenue
High Wycombe
UK, HP13 5RE
T +44(0)1494 474740
F +44(0)1494 474262
admin@fspretail.com
www.fspretail.com
www.snap-shop.co.uk