1. Assessing Enablers and Constrainers
of Graduation: Evidence from
Ethiopian Food Security Programme
Rachel Sabates-Wheeler
Institute of Development Studies, UK
Mulugeta Tefera
Girma Bekele
Dadimos Development Consultants, Ethiopia
December 2011

2. Content of the Presentation
• Background on FAC
• Methodology and survey design
• Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Enablers and Constrainers to Graduation
• Conclusions and Implications

3. Background on FAC
• Future Agricultures Consortium is a
multidisciplinary and independent learning
alliance of academic researchers and
practitioners involved in African agriculture
• FAC aims to encourage dialogue and the sharing
of good practice by policy makers and opinion
formers in Africa on the role of agriculture in
broad based growth.
• Envisaging alternative futures for African
agriculture through evidence base research.

4. Background on FAC
• Thematic focus areas of FAC
– Policy processes
– Growth and Social Protection
– Agricultural Commercialisations
– Science, Technology and Innovation
• Agricultural Growth and Social Protection (our
theme)
– focuses on the dynamics of graduation from social
protection support to longer-term processes of
livelihood improvement and pro-poor agricultural
growth.

5. Methodology and survey design
• The current report is part of a 2½ years research
project on livelihood profile and graduation pathways
in relation PSNP
• It covers 8 communities in 4 woredas of Tigray and
Oromia
• The study collects quant and qual data
– Survey of 300 HH two times
– 4 community FGDs and woreda & Kebele KIIs
– 2 times HH case studies
• This report is prepared on the basis of first round HH
survey and qualitative data collected in July/August
2011.

6. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Understanding of graduation
– High among woreda and kebele officials by stressing on HH
food security and asset building
– Substantial improvement in the understanding of
Graduation by Hhsaken
– In Oromia woredas 3 waves graduation events taken place
but only one was successful, because of recurring shocks
– In Tigray 4 graduation events was reported and only two
were successful
– Lesson: there is a tension between graduation quota and
time line set for graduation and the inherent risk factors

7. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Knowledge and Appropriateness of Benchmarks
– In Oromia benchmark = Birr 19,200 per HH
– In Tigray benchmark = Birr 5,600 per HH
Table 2: Percentage of current beneficiary HHs
reported hearing 'Graduation from PSNP'
Region Yes No
• Tigray 95.0 5.0
• Oromia 96.2 3.8
• Total 95.6 4.4

8. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
The year and percentage of households heard about graduation
Year
Current beneficiaries Graduated HHs
Tigray Oromia Total Cumulative Tigray Oromia Total Cumulative
2005 3.8 0.0 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
2006 0.0 7.7 3.8 5.7 2.7 15.4 9.2 11.8
2007 10.3 47.4 28.8 34.5 5.4 41.0 23.7 35.5
2008 19.2 20.5 19.9 54.4 27.0 23.1 25.0 60.5
2009 38.5 21.8 30.1 84.5 43.2 15.4 28.9 89.4
2010 28.2 2.6 15.4 100.0 18.9 2.6 10.5 100.0

9. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
Sources of Information about Graduation
• In Tigray majority of HHs heard about graduation from Kebele
Admin and KFST
– 55.8% of current beneficiary and and 64.1% graduated
sample households
• In Oromia majority of HHs heard about graduation from DAs
– 65.4% of current beneficiaries and 79.5% of graduated
households
Percentage of Sample HHs reported to know
official graduation criteria of their kebele
Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total
Current beneficiary HHs 74.4 71.8 73.6 71.4 73.1
Graduated HHs 76.9 74.4 76.5 70.0 75.6

10. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
Criteria
Current Beneficiary HHs Graduated HHs
Tigray Oromia Total Tigray Oromia Total
Annual food crop production 81.4 86.7 84.0 93.5 48.5 70.3
Livestock asset owned 52.5 75.0 63.9 80.6 100.0 90.6
Annual cash crop production
(vegetables, fruits, chat, coffee) 44.1 15.0 29.4 51.6 9.1 29.7
Household labour availability 15.3 0.0 7.6 9.7 3.0 6.3
Land quality 10.2 5.0 7.6 12.9 3.0 7.8
Land size 10.2 5.0 7.6 9.7 12.1 10.9
Size of woodlot 3.4 1.7 2.5 9.6 21.2 15.7
Engagement in trading activities 1.7 1.7 1.7 12.9 3.0 7.8
Number of bee hives 3.4 0.0 1.7 6.5 0.0 3.1
Remittance and support from
relatives 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.2 3.2 3.2
House rental income 0.0 1.7 0.8
Land rental income 12.5 6.4 9.6
Graduation criteria applied by kebele, % HHs

11. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Appropriate graduation criteria
– Both KFSTF and households indicated to be list of
assets and different income sources, no difference
from the official criteria
– One KFSTF in Fedis, Oromia, indicated the
graduation criteria to be based on cash-in-hand as
assets such as livestock can be easily lost by
sudden shocks.

12. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Views of graduated HHs on graduation
– Figure 3: Percentage graduated households that they were
not ready to graduate (self-reported readiness)
– About 43.2% graduated HHs reported that they were not
ready to graduate
– Majority of FHHs (66.7% reported they were not ready to
graduate
57.5
43.2
47.1
66.7
50.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total
%ofHHs

13. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Views of graduated HHs on graduation
– Confidence level of graduated households no
longer require PSNP support
– In Oromia about 1/3 of graduated households
reported that they no longer require PSNP support
Tigray Oromia Total
Confident 26.5 26.7 26.6
Some confidence 32.4 23.3 28.1
Highly confident 14.7 16.7 15.6
Have no confidence at all 26.5 33.3 29.7

14. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
– Percentage households made appeal during graduation
– Reasons not for appealing
44.7
14.7
33.3
11.1
30.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total
%ofHHs
Tigray Oromia Male Female Total
Do not know whom to appeal to 8.3 50.0 28.0 60.0 33.3
Expecting no change 58.3 16.7 40.0 33.3
I believed my graduation 33.3 16.7 24.0 20 23.3
No reason 16.7 8.0 20.0 10.0

15. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
– Percentage of graduated households by the
entireties they appealed to
Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total
Kebele Appeal Committee 56.3 20.0 50.0 47.6
KFSTF 25.0 20.0 25.0 23.8
Kebele Administrator 12.5 10.0 9.5
WFSTF 20.0 5.0 4.8
Woreda Administrator 6.3 100.0 4.8
I don't remember 40.0 10.0 9.5

16. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
– Factors that graduate households different from current PSNP beneficiaries, %
of graduated households
– In Oromia bout ½ of graduated HHs that they are better-off current PSNP ben.
Because they were able to meet their HH food needs
– However, 21% indicated they have no significant difference from current
beneficiaries
– In the to sample woredas of Oromia there were some households returned to
PSNP after graduation (according to KFSTF)
– In both Tigray woredas there were no such returnees
Tigray Oromia Total
No significant difference 46.03 21.08 33.66
Meeting household food needs 26.03 50.49 38.00
More livestock holding 0.32 15.20 7.57
Better working labour force 8.89 3.43 6.12
Productive asset ownership 6.03 6.37 6.12
Got access to credit 3.17 3.43 3.22
Started irrigation practice 3.17 1.77
Engaged in trade activities 3.17 1.77
Use of agricultural extension services 3.17 1.77

17. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Views of Current PSNP Beneficiaries on their
Future Graduation
– Confidence level of current beneficiaries to graduate from
PSNP, % of HHs
– About 35.6% of HH in Oromia and 16.5% in Tigray are
confident
– About 46.6% of HH in Oromia and 32.9% have low
confidence
– Confidence to graduate is affected by cultural factors, expected
risk factors such as drought and individuals interest to remain on the
programme indefinitely
Tigray Oromia MHHs FHHs Total
Have no confidence at all 34.2 8.2 16.4 38.9 21.7
Highly confident 16.5 9.6 13.8 11.1 13.2
Confident 16.5 35.6 29.3 13.9 25.7
low confident 32.9 46.6 40.5 36.1 39.5

18. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
– Households estimation of graduation time, % of current
beneficiary households
– Majority of HHs (2/3 in Oromia and 1/3 in Tigray require more than
three years
Tigray Oromia Male Female Total
More than three years 36.3 60.8 54.0 29.0 48.2
One and half to two years 22.2 20.3 22.4 17.6 21.3
Within one year 6.8 6.8 7.0 6.2 6.8
Within six months or less 3.0 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.2
At the time when the government say
graduate 4.3 1.9 3.3 2.2
I do not know/not sure 27.4 10.8 13.0 40.5 19.3

19. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
– Appeal on graduation
» Percentage of HHs appealed during Graduation
» Percentage of graduated households by the entireties they
appealed to
44.7
14.7
33.3
11.1
30.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total
%ofHHs
Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total
Kebele Appeal Committee 56.3 20.0 50.0 47.6
KFSTF 25.0 20.0 25.0 23.8
Kebele Administrator 12.5 10.0 9.5
WFSTF 20.0 5.0 4.8
Woreda Administrator 6.3 100.0 4.8
I don't remember 40.0 10.0 9.5

20. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
» The reasons graduated households did not appeal during
graduation, % HHs
» In Oromia about 50% HHs reported that they do no know
whom to appeal to
» In Tigray 58% of HHs did not appeal because do expected
no change
Tigray Oromia Male Female Total
Do not know whom to appeal to 8.3 50.0 28.0 60.0 33.3
Expecting no change 58.3 16.7 40.0 33.3
I believed my graduation 33.3 16.7 24.0 20 23.3
No reason 16.7 8.0 20.0 10.0

21. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
• Summary
– The majority of both the current beneficiary and graduated
HHs are informed about graduation mainly from KFSTFs
and DAs. Moreover, about 1/4 of the respondents do know
the official graduation criteria in their kebele.
– Graduation criteria are / should be livelihood based
• In Tigray annual food crop production, livestock ownership, and
annual cash crop production are 3 most important criteria used
• In Oromia livestock ownership, annual food crop production and
woodlot size
– Feelings of graduated HHs about their graduation is mixed
• About half of the graduates indicated graduation without
readiness (interpret personal interests to remain in the
programme into account)
• About 1/3 of HHs have no confidence at all they can meet their
food need without PSNP & 2/3 have some level of confidence

22. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency
– Appeal process
• About 14.7% of HHs in Oromia appealed during
graduation and 44% in Tigray did the same
• 50% of not appealed HHs do not know whom to appeal
to

23. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate
Box 1: Constrainers (enablers) of graduation
Programme-specific constrainers (enablers)
• Inappropriate benchmarks
• Inadequate income transfers
• Absent or inappropriate complementary
programmes and activities
• Dilution of transfers
– Partial (full) family targeting
• Inflexible (index-linked) transfer rate in
context of price changes
• Scale effects
– Coverage of programme
Beneficiary-specific constrainers (enablers)
• Lack of desire to graduate (dependency)
• Dilution of the transfer
– Sharing of resources between
families
• Initial household asset base
• Business know-how
Community/location-specific constrainers
(enablers)
• Initial community infrastructure and
asset base
– Land
– Water/irrigation
• Community level investment activities
(large scale)
• Community spirit
• Decentralisation
Market-specific constrainers (enablers)
• Changes in prices
• Lack of markets (goods, labour and
credit)
• Scale effects
– Agglomeration effects (size of
graduate pool)
Environment-specific constrainers
(enablers)
• Climatic changes/ natural shocks

24. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate
– Beneficiary-specific Constrainers
• According to W/KFSTF
– unwillingness to graduate,
– hiding of assets during graduation assessment,
– low initial asset base, dependency mind set,
– misuse of transfer by some households,
– PSNP beneficiaries being the poorest of the poor.
• According to community members desire to stay in the PSNP is
related to future uncertainly rather than any kind of
‘dependency syndrome.’
– recurrent drought, low or no initial asset base of PSNP
beneficiaries, limited access to credit combined with unwilling to
graduate (HHs in proving livelihood projectile)
– having no plot of land of their own, no accumulated assets at the
household level, large family size , unable to be engaged in petty trade
in their localities and fear of taking out a loan (HH in stagnating or
declining livelihood)

25. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate
• Beneficiary-Specific Enablers
– According to W/KFSTFs
• The emergence of a positive work culture due to the PSNP
public works (this was especially the case of Tigray)
• Engaging in specialized income generating activities(cattle
fattening, irrigation, retailing)
• Dependable output markets
• Beneficiaries desire to improve own livelihoods
• Participation in different trainings and technical support
• Receiving remittance from abroad
• Engaging in trading activities
– According to community members
• desire to graduate from the PSNP through hard work,
• the acquisition of business skills and
• the setting up of business activities.

26. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate
• Location (community) -specific constrainers
– According to W/KFSTFs
• the absence of big investment projects in their areas
that can create job opportunities (except Zuway D)
• crop and animal diseases
• low soil fertility and high soil erosion
– According to community
• absence of large investments
• state of being landless and
• having small plot of land
• animal disease and pests

27. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate
• Location specific enablers
– According to W/KFSTF
• productive land for farming with good soil fertility, and;
• big and medium size investment activities
– According to the community
• intensive soil and water conservation works undertaken
• Access to irrigation infrastructure and irrigable land
• Market-specific constrainers
– fluctuating and increasing prices;
– lack of labour markets and
– Distance/ location of markets and associated transportation
problems.
• Market-specific enablers
– good access to markets,
– a good road network and market linkages.
– ‘good’ prices for PSNP beneficiaries’ products

28. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate
• Climate-specific constrainers
– Recurring drought
– Flood (Oromia)
– Pests and to a certain extent frost and hailstorms
* Respondents were unable to identify climate-
specific enablers

29. Conclusions and implications
• Most beneficiaries are informed about graduation. However about ¼ of HHs are
not well aware of graduation criteria in their kebele.
– Thus expanding the knowledge of HHs on graduation criteria is crucial through KFSTFs
and DAs
• About ½ of graduated HHs taken out of PSNP without adequate readiness
– Monitoring the livelihood of these HHs is important
– Future graduation plan thoroughly consider graduations benchmarks and HHs ability to
feed their members through out the year
• About ½ of graduated HHs in Oromia do not know whom to apply to
– HHs should be provided with clear information how appeal process works
• Majority of HHs (2/3 in Oromia and 1/3 in Tigray require more than three years)
– This indicate graduation size should be planned in incremental way over time
• Unwillingness to graduate, hiding of assets during graduation
assessment, dependency mind set and misuse of transfer by some households are
some of beneficiary specific constrainers
– These constrainers should be addressed through community education awareness
building
– Increasing access and size of loan together with skill building are some of the
interventions to build confidence of HHs on graduation
• Focusing of creating access to market through PWs have direct effect on
graduation. Again higher attention should continue to be given on building access
road to markets to create enabling enviroment.