Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London

Welcome and introduction to the
ESRC’s Future of the UK and Scotland
programme of activities
• PHIL SOOBEN
• Director of Policy, Resources and
Communications
• Economic and Social Research Council

The current state of the debate
CURRENT POLITICAL STRATEGIES
• PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY
• Future of the UK and Scotland Research
Co-ordinator
• University of Edinburgh

Scotland’s
Referendum: Political
Strategies
Charlie Jeffery
University of Edinburgh

Political Strategies
• How the two sides are approaching the
referendum
– The ‘big picture’
– The economic implications

The big picture strategy
Should Scotland be an
independent country? Yes/No
A binary choice superimposed
on a three-way split in opinion

What should the Scottish Parliament do?
2013 data, Scottish Social Attitudes
Make all decisions for Scotland
(= independence)
31%
UK Government decides on defence and
foreign affairs, the Scottish Parliament
everything else
32%
UK Govt decides on defence, foreign
affairs, taxes and benefits, the Scottish
Parliament everything else (= now)
25%
UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 8%

The Median Voter
(= independence)
31%
everything else
32%
25%
UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 8%

Yes: What kind of independence?
• Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence
with partnership’
– Doing some things markedly differently from RUK
– Doing the same things as RUK but better
– Doing the same things in much the same way as now in
partnership with RUK
• Keeping five of the six current unions: EU, NATO, currency,
monarchy, social union

with partnership’
– This the key terrain in the debate

with partnership’
• A principled vision of independence? Yes

with partnership’
• A principled vision of independence? Yes
• Referendum tactic? That too

The Median Voter
(= independence)
31%
everything else
32%
25%
UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland
2013 data
8%

The UK Govt No:
the Scotland Analysis Series
• Feb 2013 to May 2014
• 14 papers, ~ 1,500 pages
– Several on economy, plus defence, security,
EU/international, borders/migration, research
– Core message: status quo better than
independence
– Written in measured, scholarly manner, not
dismissing ‘independence with partnership’, but
‘no guaranteed access’ …

Until
• Currency Union debate February 2014
• Formal sterling currency union ruled out
– By Scotland Analysis paper
– By publication of civil service advice
– By Conservative, Labour, LibDem figures in one voice
“it is not going to happen”
Refusal to engage on the terrain
of ‘independence with partnership’

Why?
• A set of beliefs at the UK level about what
‘independence’ means (see EU debate)
• A pre-negotiating stance? [The Scottish Govt
view]
• Tactics: (one part of an) electoral pincer
movement

The Other Part: When No Means More …
• Proposals for further-reaching devolution if
Scotland votes No from pro-union parties,
think tanks
– Tax devolution, welfare devolution
– The Conservatives yesterday completed the set
• Completing the pincer movement on the
median voter

The Economy
• Voters’ views of the economic consequences
of independence are the best predictors of Yes
or No voting

The Economy (aka the £500 question)
“Say it was clear that if Scotland became an
independent country (separate from the rest of the
UK) the standard of living would be higher/lower
and people would on average be £500 a year
better/worse off.
In these circumstances would you be in favour or
against Scotland becoming an independent
country?”
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey

£500
2013 £500 Better
off
No change £500 Worse
off
% % %
In favour of
independence 52 34 15
Neither 12 9 16
Against
independence
30 40 72

Last Week …
• UK Govt paper: Scots £1,400 better off in
union
• Scottish Govt paper: Scots £1,000 better off
with independence
• Different assumptions, each challenged
– See www.futureukandscotland/blog/financial-
reflections-blog-round
• A turbo-charged version of the £500 question

THE DEBATE AROUND DEFENCE
• DR COLIN FLEMING
• ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change
•

Dr Colin Fleming
Scottish Centre on Constitutional
Change

The Defence Debate
• Small States vs Large States
• What Scotland Wants?
• NATO and Trident?
• Defence Relationship with the UK

THE EU MEMBERSHIP DEBATE
• PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING
• Director, Scottish Centre on Constitutional
Change

• PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY
• DR COLIN FLEMING
• PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING

What business thinks
UNCERTAINTIES FOR BUSINESS LEADERS
• PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY
• ESRC Senior Scottish Fellow in the Scotland
Analysis
• University of Edinburgh Business School

THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DEBATE:
EVIDENCE FROM BUSINESS
Future of the UK and Scotland
12.30pm – 3.30pm, Wednesday 4 June 2014
Hoare Memorial Hall, Church House Conference Centre
Dean's Yard, London SW1P 3NZ
Professor Brad MacKay, University of Edinburgh Business School

What risks and opportunities does the independence
referendum pose for businesses in Scotland? Are
businesses planning for the referendum, and if they are,
how? Is the constitutional debate impacting on business
decisions? What decisions might be taken in different
constitutional scenarios?
The Scottish independence debate and referendum
raises questions about how conditions of constitutional
uncertainty are influencing business decision-making
across diverse industry sectors in Scotland.
Uncertainties around issues such as fiscal and monetary
policies, currency, industry regulation, international
agreements, or future participation in the EU have
implications for businesses operating in Scotland, and
influence decisions on whether to invest, re-invest,
expand, withdraw, locate or relocate business activity.
THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DEBATE:
EVIDENCE FROM BUSINESS

THE SAMPLE
By Sector No. %
Financial Services (life insurance, retail, wealth
management) 20 33
Energy (incl. Hydro and Oil and Gas companies) 12 20
Electronics/Technology 9 15
Life Science 7 12
Engineering/Industrial Manufacturing 12 20
Total 60 100
Other (Food and Drink) 4

COMPANY PROFILE
36
By Size No. %
Large 32 53
Medium (2XS/M) 28 47
Total 60 100
Primary
Trade/Customers
No. %
Scotland 6 10
rUK 16 27
Global 38 63
Total 60 100
Ownership
Structure
No. %
PLC 28 47
Private 18 30
Partnership 8 13
Trade Body 6 10
Total 60 100
Ownership No. %
Scotland 33 55
rUK 12 20
Abroad 15 25
Total 60 100

THE SCOTTISH ECONOMY
Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government,
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate

RISKS
Industry
Financial
Services
Life
Sciences
Electronics/
Technology
Engineering/
Ind. Manuf.
Energy (incl.
oil and gas)
Key Risks
Change in Currency 14 2 5 5 5
Regulatory Changes 15 3 1 1 5
Personal Taxes 10 1 2 2 4
Corporate Tax 8 -- 2 4 5
EU 8 -- 3 4 5
Recruitment/Retention 7 1 2 1 3
Compet./Client. Reloc. 5 -- -- 5 --
Reputation 5 1 3 3 --
Investment/financing -- 4 3 4 2
Pension Costs 3 -- -- 2 --
No vote. In-out ref. etc. 1 -- 1 2 1
Cross-border Collabor. -- 2 -- -- --
Licencing/Labour Laws -- -- 1 4 2
IP -- 1 1 -- 2

RISKS
“It’s perceived risk around stability.
And I guess there’s a number of
subsets of that, so one of them is
fiscal…issues around currency…
concerns around who the
regulators will be, where they’ll be
based, what the influence of
Europe may or may not be on
that… EU safety regulation…
there’s questions about Scotland’s
EU membership, our infrastructure
will cross boundaries … So there’s
a whole host of issues but they all
really come down to this question
of stability or uncertainty around
what these things might look like.”
L, PLC, rUK, Global
40
“I think the simple answer to that
is no. Because sometimes I think
the people who are raising the
uncertainty issues, I’m not sure
they get out enough, you
know…we’re all in the EU
transacting cross-border… we’re
dealing with a multitude of
currencies, different nationalities.
So for the life of me, if Scotland
chooses independence, I don’t
see necessarily why that is going
to overcomplicate things. I just
can’t see it.”
(ET, M, Priv., Global)
Indicative View Minority View

Industry
Financial
Services
Life
Sciences
Electronics/
Technology
Engineering/
Ind. Manuf.
Energy (incl.
oil and gas)
Key Opportunities
Products/Services 4 2 -- 1 1
Income tax decreases 6 -- -- 2 --
Corp tax decreases 2 -- -- 2 2
Access to government -- 1 1 1 1
Liberal Immigration 2 2 1 2 1
R&D Rebates -- -- 1 -- --
Redesign Regulations -- 1 1 -- 3
Scottish Brand/Pride 1 -- 1 1 --
Made in Scotland prov. -- -- -- 1 2
Gov. funding/subsidy -- 4 -- 2 2
Connections -- 2 1 1 --
Skills training -- -- -- 1 1
Influence EU Directly -- -- -- 1 1
Change model of
independence 2 -- -- -- 1
OPPORTUNITIES

OPPORTUNITIES
“[Reducing] Import/export
legislation. Taxation associated
with cross border trade.
Regulation of the business in
Scotland… Change. And risk, and
fear, and all these other things,
plus opportunity, catalyse action in
a way that doesn’t happen if it’s
just the status quo... I think there
would be a sense of immediacy in
terms of what one could do that
would really affect prosperity, in a
way that’s maybe different in a
larger country.” (EM, M. Priv., SB,
FO, Global)
“I think if Scotland went
Independent, it would make the
most of it, and it would rise to the
challenge, and everybody would
do the best they could… But I
think certainly initially in the short
term, it would be a net loss and
wouldn’t bring any benefits in the
short term at all, other than to
perhaps generate a bit more
national pride and the will to
overcome the difficulties. But it’s
not just about Scotland; it’s
about Scotland’s place in the
larger world...” (EM, M. Priv., SB)
Indicative view … Minority view…

Industry
Financial
Services
Life
Sciences
Electronics/
Technology
Engineering/
Ind. Manuf.
Energy (incl.
oil and gas)
Contingency Planning
Discussions 16 1 2 2 5
Monitoring risks 4 1 2 1 1
Analysis/tactical plans 12 -- -- 4 4
Investing in/existing
option to restructure 3 -- 3 1 2
Rely on business
continuity plans 3 1 2 -- --
Deferring investment -- 1 -- 1 --
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
* These numbers are fluid and, data suggests, largely reflect the time interviews were
conducted and previous stability in the polls. A narrowing of the polls is likely to result in more
wide-spread contingency planning, as has the publication of annual reports in recent weeks.

CONTINGENCY PLANNING
“None at all, as I say, I can only
see positives if Scotland were to
gain its independence. And I think
a lot of the debate up here around
issues going across the border are
just overheated nonsense frankly.”
(ET, Priv., M, Global)
“[Contingency planning] is bluster.
If there’s a yes vote you don’t
know what the environment will
be.”
(EM, L., Priv., Global).
“None whatsoever.”
(ET, M., Priv., Global)
On the other hand …On the one hand …
“Very informal. There has been no
contingency plan, though I’m being
asked more and more, what would
you do if Scotland were to go
independent… we could be based
anywhere.” (FS, M. Priv., EU).
“You know, I can’t afford to move the
business, nor would I want to … but
if there are problems by way of
labour migration or customers not
wanting to necessarily trade as
easily, or suddenly I’m a Scottish
supplier and not a UK supplier, then
I’m building a supply chain, a near-
shore supply chain as a
contingency.” (EM, L., PLC, rUK).

WHAT CONCLUSIONS CAN
WE DRAW FROM THE
SAMPLE?

DRAWING CONCLUSIONS
FROM THE SAMPLE …
Uncertainty poses a challenge for business leaders;
The risks expressed by business leaders are highly
specific and directly concern business activity;
The opportunities are less specific and tend to relate
to the politics of the debate;
Business leaders of medium-sized, private
companies exporting globally are the most likely to
emphasise the opportunities presented by the
possibility of Scottish independence;
 PLC companies headquartered in Scotland appear
most affected;

DRAWING CONCLUSIONS
FROM THE SAMPLE…
Companies whose trade is mainly in the rUK
(typically 90%, with 10% in Scotland) appear far more
affected than companies whose trade is mainly in
Scotland or is global;
Medium sized, privately owned companies appear
more willing to absorb downside risk than PLCs;
Medium sized, foreign-owned companies trading
predominantly in a global market indicate they are less
affected by the constitutional debate than PLCs
trading primarily in the rUK;
 About 10% of companies indicate they have
contingency plans to restructure their businesses to
migrate economic activity out of Scotland.

“But this isn’t a complex or complicated debate for us. It’s really very
straightforward. We have 3 categories of stakeholder whose interest
we need to bear in mind: our customers, our shareholders, and our
employees. And we’re a PLC … so our shareholders’ interests are
obviously of paramount importance. So it’s, does the economic
environment in which we operate, does it support the continued
sustainability of the business and the future prosperity of those three
groups. And if it doesn’t, what do we do about it. It’s not a political
debate for us. It isn’t complicated. But it’s trying to take the politics out
of it that’s the difficult thing. If you take any of those three stakeholder
groups, employees for example, it’s very difficult to, in their minds, to
differentiate between the political statement and the statement
protecting stakeholders’ interests. So it’s quite difficult….But in terms
of understanding what the right thing to do is, that’s not difficult at all.
That’s not difficult. We’ve got to protect the interests of those three
groups.” (PLC., L., rUK)

FIRM BEHAVIOUR?
Business behaviour will be driven by protecting:
 Customers
 Ability to sell products/services (location of customer base,
regulations, reputation);
 Ability to access markets (ie. MOD, EU, rUK, trade agreements).
 Employees
 Ability to attract high value, skilled labour (ie. quality of life);
 Ability to maintain high value, skilled labour (ie. personal taxes).
 Shareholders
 Ability to create value (ie. perception, profitability);
 Value destruction (ie. through increasing costs/complexity).
 Environment/Government Support
 Trading environment competitiveness/Government support

THE SCENARIO MATRIX
INDEPENDENCE
HEAVY
(HIGH TRANSITION
COSTS)
DEVO MINOR
INDEPENDENCE
LITE
(MODEST TRANSITION
COSTS)
DEVO PLUS
Behaviours
Conflict Partnership
Referendum
Vote
Yes
No

THE SCOTTISH PRIVATE
SECTOR IN THE TRANSITION?
Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government,
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate

@UKScotland
#indyrefbusiness
futureukandscotland.ac.uk

SURVEY EVIDENCE ON BUSINESS AND
INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES TO CONSTITUTIONAL
CHANGE
• PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
• ESRC Senior Scottish Fellow and part of the ESRC
Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change
• University of Stirling
•

The Independence Debate: Views from Business
PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
DIVISION OF ECONOMICS
STIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING

Business Attitudes to the Independence Debate
• Economy is vital to the referendum outcome
• University of Stirling has carried out two surveys of business opinion
• Key issues for businesses
– Taxation
– Currency
– Regulation
– Relationship with EU

How important is the following factor in deciding how you
are going to vote …
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Percent
How the Scottish economy will fare
YouGov Poll for University of Stirling taken Dec 2013 n = 2037

Exploring business attitudes: surveys of Scottish Chambers
of Commerce members in June 2013 and Feb 2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 1-9 10-49 50-250 250+
NumberofCompaniesinSample
Number of Employees
Jun 2013
Feb 2014
broadly the same size distribution ….

Where does your company mainly trade?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mainly
Scotland
Mainly rUK Mainly
Europe
Mainly RoW
NumberofCompanies
Jun 2013
Feb 2014
Most focussed on Scottish market …

Share of firms viewing each issue as ‘important’ or ‘very
important’ in relation to independence
Growing concerns in the business community …

Main concerns for firms by main trading area ….
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Income Tax
Rates
Corporation
tax
Business
Regulation
Currency Migration
Percentoffirmsviewingissueas
'important'or'extremelyimportant'
Mainly Scotland
Mainly rUK
Mainly Europe
Mainly RoW

Opportunities with independence …
shareoffirms
Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014
Scottish Government

Risks with independence …
shareoffirms
More firms take the view that there are
‘No opportunities’ rather than ‘No risks’

Risks with independence by main trading area …
38%
27%
8% 8% 9% 10%
39%
15%
7%
4%
23%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Uncertainty/
time it takes to
transfer to
independence
Less access /
business links
with the rUK
Less
identification
with the
'UK/British
brand'
Contraction of
the firm
No risks Other risk
Percentoffirms
Mainly rUK
Other

Opportunities – business views
– ‘More Scottish appropriate policies which will lead to a closer
identification with a Scottish brand which I think will have greater traction
with a global market.‘
– ‘Lower taxation & economic incentives. International inward investment.’
– ‘Although we might be hammered by differential exchange rates on our
importation of ingredients and raw materials - mostly sourced outside
Scotland, we might also benefit if a new Scottish currency is created and
the value sinks against our major trading currency partners. This could
improve competiveness?’

Risks – business views
– ‘Higher taxation, greater investment risk.’
– ‘Antagonisms currently being generated that seems to be sending the
wrong messages to the other UK members.’
– ‘The obvious risk is that the Scotland will be unable to meet its debts
when they fall due as the proposals from Salmond are lacking in any
business credibility’
– ‘If there is a yes vote overseas students will be uncertain where and how
they can apply for a Scottish Visa so they will study in another country’

Evidence of negative effects on trade – “the border effect”
• Border effect - trade is much higher within countries than across national
boundaries. Current evidence suggests high levels of trade “friction”
between Scotland and Rest of World (excluding Rest of UK) but very low
level of friction between Scotland and ruK
• Estimated effect of borders ~ 5 per cent of GDP
Source: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/41434

Final thoughts …
• Large scale surveys suggest that businesses believe that risks associated
with independence outweigh opportunities
• Businesses strongly support the retention of a monetary union with rUK. In
their view, other currency options will have a negative or very negative
impact on their businesses.
• Independence is not the only risk/opportunity faced by Scottish businesses.
Leaving the EU, whether as part of the UK, or as an independent country is
viewed negatively by the majority of Scottish businesses.
• [Source: Bell, D. and McGoldrick, M. (2014) ‘Business attitudes to Constitutional Change’
Accessed at: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/papers/business-attitudes-constitutional-
change ]

• PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY
• PROFESSOR DAVID BELL

Scottish independence: what the
public thinks
PUBLIC ATTITUDES AND SCOTLAND'S
INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM
• PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE
• ESRC Senior Scotland Fellow
• NatCen/ScotCen Social Research
• Strathclyde University

Public Attitudes and the
Referendum
John Curtice
whatscotlandthinks.org
@whatscotsthink

Two Questions
• Who is ahead?
• What matters most to voters?

The Referendum Race
38 39 39 41 43 43
62 61 61 59 57 57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-May 13 July-Sept.
13
Oct-Dec. 13 Jan-mid
Feb. 14
Mid Feb-
Mar 14
Apr - May
14
Yes
No
Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May 13; 11 July-Oct 13; 8 Oct-Dec. 1;, 7 Jan-mid Feb 14; 12 mid-Feb-Mar 14; 11 Apr-May 14.
Don’t Knows excluded

House Differences
45 45 44
41 40
38
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Panelbase ICM Survation TNS BMRB YouGov (Ipsos MORI)
%Yes
Based on all polls since Jan. Don’t Knows excluded

Partly A Question of Identity
67
46
16
9 7
18
39
71
81
87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sc not Br More Sc than
Br
Equal More Br than
Sc
Br not Sc
Yes
No
Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator

But Identity Largely Unchanging (and
Dual)
24 23 24 23 22 24
30 27 28 26 25 24
33
33 33 34 33 34
4
5 5 7
6 6
7 9 8 8
9 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Feb May Sept Dec Feb May
Sc not Br More Sc than Br Equal More Br than Sc Br not Sc
Source: Ipsos MORI

Economy Matters More
87
2
62
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Better Worse
% Yes
Economy
Equality
Source: ICM Research May 2014. Don’t Knows included in denominator

And Tracks Ref VI Better
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sept Jan Feb Mar Apr May
No Lead Net Economy Net Equality
Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows included in denominators

Summary
• The No lead narrowed in the winter – but has
remained stable (at the lower level) in the
spring. Still differences between polls.
• People’s sense of national identity provides a
starting point, but is far from being a sole
determinant
• Thus the importance of the debate about the
economy (but less so equality). Yes progress in
this debate helps explain the smaller No lead

Scottish independence: what the
public thinks
THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION IN PUBLIC
OPINION
• PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY
• ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change
• Stirling University

Citizen Preferences for Constitutional
Change in Scotland
David Bell, Liam Delaney and
Michael McGoldrick
Stirling Management School
University of Stirling

Overview
• Scottish Independence Referendum
• Behavioural Economics
• Processing of Risk particularly Economic Risk
• Risk Perceptions
• Risk Aversion
• Future Work

• Designed by Research Team
• Administered by Yougov in December 2013
• 2037 Respondents
• Follow-up from Scottish Election Survey
• Wide range of demographic and other questions
• Simple measure of risk aversion validated in recent papers
• Validated Measures of future orientation
Survey

Likelihood of Voting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Percentageofeachsetofvoters
Certainty of voting 0 - lowest 10- highest
Certainty of voting
Yes to independence No to independence

Constitutional Options
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Scotland in the UK
with no increase in
powers
Scotland in the UK
with increased tax
powers
Scotland
independent,
pound
Scotland
independent, own
currency
Scotland
independent, euro
None of the above Don't know
Yes to independence No to independence Do not Know

Attitudes and Voting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Scottish, not British More Scottish than British Equally Scottish and More British than Scottish British, not Scottish
Yes to independence No to independence Don't know

Temporal Attitudes
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Are you generally an impatient person, or someone who always
shows patience?
Yes
No

Risk Attitudes and Voting
3% 2%
4%
5%
7%
17% 16%
20%
16%
3%
8%
6%
4%
5%
8% 8%
21%
18% 17%
9%
1%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Willingness to take a risk
Yes No

Factors in Voting Intention
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Importance of Scotland's National debt

Factors in Voting Intention
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Importance of pension entitlements to voters

Economic Voting
70%
4%
5%
3% 3% 3% 4%
8%
63%
1%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
8%
27%
3%
5%
7%
10%
7%
4%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
No amount would
make
Less than 500
per year
500 to 1,000 1,001 to 2,000 2,001 to 5,000 5,000 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Don't know

Economic Voting
17%
24%
13% 14% 14%
18%
3%
7%
12%
20%
26%
32%
7%
15%
20%
28%
20%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Less than 500 per
year
500 to 1,000 1,001 to 2,000 2,001 to 5,000 5,000 to 10,000 More than 10,000
Amount of income to sway the changeable minds
Yes to independence No to independence D0 not know

• Higher risk willingness substantially increases support for
Independence
• Females less supportive of Independence
• Those born in Scotland more supportive
• Older and higher income less supportive
• Some of gender effect explained by risk willingness
Statistical Modelling

• Salience
• Priming of risk
• Framing of risk
• Risk and Ambiguity
• Risk and Benefit “Overload”
• Endowment Effects
Further Questions

Scottish independence: what the public thinks
• PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE
• PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY

Scotland and the Rest of the UK
BRITISH ELECTION STUDY: FIRST FINDINGS ON
CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES IN SCOTLAND, WALES,
ENGLAND
• PROFESSOR JANE GREEN
• Institute for Social Change
• Manchester University

Constitutional issues in Scotland, Wales and England
Professor Jane Green, University of Manchester

BES2015 data collection - wave 1
• 20,881 person online sample fielded by YouGov
• 4,139 respondents in Scotland
• 2,256 respondents in Wales
• Fieldwork: 20 February – 9 March 2014
• Same respondents surveyed again end May, after
September 2014, and then 2015 onwards
• 5 minute module to Scottish respondents
• Large number of items on Scottish independence

Scottish constitutional preference Qs
• If Scotland votes to remain part of the United
Kingdom, *should* the Scottish Parliament have
more powers than it does at present, fewer powers,
or should the Parliament's powers stay about the
same as they are now.
• And if Scotland votes to remain part of the United
Kingdom, do you think that the powers devolved to
the Scottish parliament *will* change?

Think
devolution
will
happen
anyway
Want more devolution
NO YES
Vote no
11%
Vote yes
26%
Vote no
9%
Vote yes?
41%YES
NO

Think
devolution
will
happen
anyway
NO YES
Vote no
11%
Vote yes
26%
Vote no
9%
Vote yes?
41%YES
NO
Distribution of four groups within the Scottish sample

Think
devolution
will
happen
anyway
NO YES
Vote no
7%
Vote yes
71%
Vote no
3%
Vote yes?
35%YES
NO
Intention to vote ‘yes’ in referendum by group in sample

Welsh and English preferences for Scotland
remaining in the Union
68
16 16
68
16 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Remain UK Independent Don't know
English
Welsh

Welsh constitutional preference Qs
• Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
There should be no devolved government in Wales
The National Assembly for Wales should have fewer powers
We should leave things as they are now
The National Assembly for Wales should have more powers
Wales should become independent, separate from the UK
• How do you think that the powers devolved to the
National Assembly for Wales will change over the next
few years?

Welsh constitutional preferences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more powers
Should
Will

English constitutional preference Qs
• Some UK laws only affect England because some policies are
decided in Scotland and Wales. How do you think laws that
only affect England should be made?
• By UK Parliament, with all MPs having a vote 18%
• By UK Parliament, only English MPs having a vote 47%
• By a new, separate parliament for England, but with
England remaining part of the UK 13%
• By a new, separate parliament for England, England
becoming independent from the rest of the UK 4%
• Don't know 18%

BES data playground from summer 2014
www.britishelectionstudy.com
ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland
4 June 2014

0-100 expectations that Scotland will
choose independence
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Scotland will definitely choose
independence
Scotland will definitely choose to stay
in UK
%

If expect Scotland to become independent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more powers
Scotland in the Union Independent Scotland

The BES instruments
2015 General Election
Pre
N = 20,000
Post-election face-to-face
probability sample
+ mailback inc. CSES module
N = 3,000
Post
N = 20,000
Scottish and
local elections
N = 20,000
Local elections
N = 15,000
Twitter data harvest
January 2014 May 2014 September 2014
May 2017 May 2016
Voter registration data matching
2010
election
sample
2005
election
sample
Base sample
N = 20,000
European and
local elections
N = 20,000
Independence
referendum
N = 20,000
Daily rolling thunder
N = 650 per day

WHAT KIND OF RELATIONSHIP COULD A POST-
YES SCOTLAND HAVE WITH THE REST OF THE
UK?
• DR NICOLA MCEWEN
• Associate Director, ESRC Scottish Centre on
Constitutional Change

What kind of relationship could a
post-yes Scotland have with the
rest of the UK?
Dr Nicola McEwen
University of Edinburgh
Associate Director
ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change

Yes to what…?
What would ‘an independent
country’ look like?
Scottish Government’s
independence vision embedded
within British Isles and EU
Independence as end of only the
parliamentary union –
monarchical, currency, defence,
European, and social unions
would remain intact
Institutional and governmental
co-operation & ‘strategic
partnerships’ with rUK
“with independence… Scotland
and the rest of the UK would both
stand on our own two feet – taking
our own decisions, and working
together on issues of common
interest. Our relationship would be
what it should always have been – a
partnership of equals.”
Nicola Sturgeon MSP,
Deputy First Minister
June 2013

White Paper on Scotland’s Future:
a vision of cooperative governance
Shared monarchy
Sterling currency union
Common Travel Area/labour
market
Cross-border agreements in
specialist health care
services/transplant
Common research area in
higher education
Strategic energy partnership,
GB market, Green Investment
Bank
BBC/SBC Joint venture
UK-wide National Lottery/Big
Lottery Fund
Cross-border co-operation to
combat serious & organised
crime
Functional cross-border bodies,
e.g. Office of Rail Regulation,
Civil Aviation Authority
Informal partnership - as
‘equals’ and ‘allies’ - within
NATO/the European Union

No pre-negotiation
Benefits of union as ‘best of
both worlds’ +
Hard view of independence as
separation:
 no currency union;
 EU/NATO membership in doubt
 Likely necessity of border posts
 No energy partnership/integrated
common market
 Defence co-operation unlikely
Hard pre-referendum
stance
“…the value of the pound lies in the
entire monetary system underpinning
it... supported by political union,
banking union and automatic
transfers of public spending across
the United Kingdom. A vote to leave
the UK is also a vote to leave these
unions and those transfers and those
monetary arrangements…
If Scotland walks away from the
UK, it walks away from the UK
pound. ”
George Osborne
Chancellor of the Exchequer

Post-Yes
pragmatism?
Edinburgh agreement >
loser’s consent/goodwill
Desire to maintain stability
Easier to maintain co-
operation than to
completely dismantle union
EU as a driver promoting
cross-border co-operation
and integration
“we will continue to work
together constructively in the
light of the outcome,
whatever it is, in the best
interests of the people of
Scotland and of the rest of
the United Kingdom”
Edinburgh
Agreement, 2012

Competing interests – business, regional, political, international
– shape and constrain choices
UK Gen Election > political costs of (in)action
Principled & practical objection to pooling sovereignty/ceding
control
Resistance to imposed change on centre
Concessions, where they come, will imply constraints
Limits to cooperative governance

Inadequacies of existing machinery of IGR - Joint Ministerial
Committee/British-Irish Council
Annual summits/joint working groups on the UK-Irish model?
Standing institutions - e.g. North South Ministerial Council,
Nordic Council of Ministers - can help to:
 foster mutual trust
 nurture common purpose/identity
 raise awareness
 get issues on national agendas
Informal bilateral networks crucial
Governing Interdependence after
independence

“Our citizens, uniquely linked by
geography and history, are connected today as never before... Our two
economies benefit from a flow of people, goods, investment, capital and
ideas on a scale that is rare even in this era of global economic
integration…
“We intend that this Joint Statement will be the starting point for
realising the potential over the next decade of even stronger relations for
current and future generations living on these islands.”
David Cameron and Enda Kenny, March 2012
Why would it be different for
Scotland?

Dr Nicola McEwen, University of Edinburgh
Email: N.McEwen@ed.ac.uk
@mcewen_nicola
ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland Programme website:
http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk
@UKScotland
Further info

• PROFESSOR JANE GREEN
• DR NICOLA MCEWEN

Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London

Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London

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Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London