Nuclear Free Local Authorities seminar in Cardiff council, 24 October 2012

3. a
100%
renewable
future

5. “When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line
with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius ,
which would have …
…devastating consequences for the planet.”
“We have 5 years to change the energy system…
…or have it changed”
Fatih Birol
IEA Chief Economist

6. Things are getting worse!
Global CO2 emission trends?
~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs
~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
~ 5.9% 2009-2010
~ 3.2 % 2010-2011
(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)

7. The State of Play
“To hold the increase in global temperature below
2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective
consistent with science”
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
Committee on Climate Change global budget has
56% chance of exceeding 2C
UK Government adopts a pathway with a
63% chance of exceeding 2C

8. The Challenge
UK’s target: 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050
EU 60%-80% 2050
Bali 50% 2050
 CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years
 2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous
climate change (2°C)
 It is cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon
budget)
 This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of
climate change
- from long term gradual reductions
- to urgent & radical reductions

9. The Challenge
“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than a
planned economic recession being compatible with
stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO2e.”
Anderson & Bows 2008

10. Total Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways
AR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation cumulative emission range
2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
80
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
80 80
Low DL
60 Low DH
60 60
Medium DL
Medium DH
High DL
40 High DH
40 40
20
20 20
0
0 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year Year
Year
Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366.
pp.3863-3882)

11. … and for energy emissions?
(with 2020 peak)
60 2015 peak Medium DL
2015 peak High DL
2015 peak High DH
2020 peak High DL
13 of 18 scenarios 50
Emissions of CO2 alone (GtCO2)
2020 peak High DH
‘impossible’
40
Even then total 30
decarbonisation by 10-20% annual reductions –
~2035-45 necessary 20 even for a high probability of
exceeding 2°C
Globally: no emission 10
space for coal, gas,
or shale – even with
CCS! 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year

12. a
100%
renewable
future

13. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)
(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

14. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)
(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
Peak 2025
Growth 3.5% p.a
Reduction 7% p.a.
(2x Stern!)

15. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)
(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

16. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)
(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
Peak ~2010
Reduction ∞% p.a.

17. The Problems
 All scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate
change use Bio-carbon capture and storage to give
negative emissions (geoengineering)
 Most scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous
climate change use a large expansion of nuclear power
 Assumptions about ‘big’ technology naively optimistic
 Recent historical emissions massaged
 Short-term emissions growth seriously downplayed
 Reduction rate universally dictated by economists
 Annex 1/Non-Annex 1 split neglected or hidden
 Senior Government Advisor: “We can’t tell [ministers
and politicians that 2oC is] not possible”

18. And 4oC?
 Emissions must peak no later than 2020
 A 3.5% pa reduction in energy emissions is imperative
 At least it’s achievable…

19. The Downside
 For 4°C global mean surface temperature
 5°C - 6°C global land mean
 And an increase on the hottest days of:
 6°C - 8°C in China
 8°C - 10°C in Central Europe
 10°C -12°C in New York
 And in low latitudes 4 C gives up to 40% reduction in
maize and rice as population heads towards 9 billion
by 2050

20. The Situation
There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is
incompatible with an organised global community
is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’
is devastating to the majority of eco-systems
and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C
would be an interim temperature on the way to a much
higher equilibrium level).
Consequently… 4°C should be avoided at all costs

21. Energy Emissions
 10% reduction year-on-year
Impossible?
Approximately 50% of emissions caused by 1% of global
population
Including *probably* everyone in this room
Anyone who ever sets foot on a plane
Anyone in the UK earning over ~£30k

22. And Wales?

24. Wales leading the way
“Wales is a definite leader in
promoting sustainable
development”

25. 20
Wales leading the way
?
Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar
18
(normalised to 2003)
16
14
12
England
10 Northern Ireland
8 Scotland
Wales
6
4
2
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

26. 25
Wales leading the way
?
Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar
(partly normalised to 2003)
20
South East
East Midlands
East
15
West Midlands
London
10 North West
North East
South West
5 Yorkshire and the Humber
Wales
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

27. Wales leading the way
?
Non-renewable installed capacity per capita (2005-2011)
(MW per 1000 people)

28. a
100%
renewable
future

29. dim mwy o nwy

30. Image and slide credits
Slides 3, 12 and 28 http://www.flickr.com/photos/primed_minister/2306496568/
Slides 4, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16 Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
(with permission)
Slide 24 http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/09/25/jonathon-porritt-wales-is-
a-definite-leader-in-promoting-sustainable-development-91466-31898347/
Slide 29 http://www.climate-justice-now.org/leave-it-in-the-ground-cop17-illustration/