The Global Business Travel Association ("GBTA"), has released its latest GBTA BTI™ Outlook report on Western Europe as part of its semi-annual series. The full report is available for purchase for non-members and at no cost for GBTA members. To learn more about the Global Business Travel Association please visit www.gbta.org.

1. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe
Prospects for Domestic & International Outbound Business Travel 2013-2014
2013H1
Europe continues to struggle under the weight of outsized
sovereign debt burdens and the austerity programs prescribed
as remedy. Unfortunately, 2013 looks to be another year of
weakness, particularly in the periphery, before 2014 brings
modest growth. Combined, the five largest business travel
markets will see spending expand by only 0.4% and 3.7% for
2013 and 2014, respectively.

2. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe 2013H1
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internal company use.
the end of 2012, profits were still declining, albeit at slower rates. The outlook for 2013 is for operating surpluses to
stabilize and slowly begin to grow as top-line revenue starts a slow ascent and earlier cost-cutting efforts begin to pay
off.
Oil prices began to stabilize in late 2011 and
have been largely moving sideways since
that time. While still consistently above the
$100/bbl level (Brent Crude), oil has traded in
an increasingly narrow range into early 2013.
This has brought welcome relief to a struggling
European economy. Jet fuel also steadied
over that same period. Currently $3.09 per
gallon (Jan. 2013), adequate supply and tepid
demand growth suggest a slight drift upward
in 2013, with a more rapid expansion the
following year. Most analysts are expecting
oil prices to rise slowly in 2013, averaging
about $113-$114/bbl. With global economic
growth stronger in 2014, prices will reach the
$120/bbl level. Of course, the risk of a
Middle East supply interruption is ever-present.
2013-2014 Economic Outlook
Growth prospects for the five key European business travel markets, and for the Euro Area as a whole, remain weak.
Germany (0.9%) and France (0.2%) were just barely able to muster positive GDP growth in 2012, while other key
economies, including the U.K. had clearly backslid into recession. Performance in 2013 will also be mixed. The Eurozone is
expected to remain in recession during the first quarter of 2013, with conditions in many of the periphery countries still
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
USD$ per Gallon
$USD per Barrel
Jet Fuel & Crude Oil in Lockstep
Crude Oil (Brent ‐left scale) Jet Fuel (right scale)
2012 Averages:
Crude Oil = $112/bbl
Jet Fuel = $3.06/gal
Sideways during 2011‐12. Likely to drift upward in
2013 as global economy strengthens
Source: Energy Information Administration

3. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe 2013H1
Page 22© April 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety for
internal company use.
Spain
Spanish business travel spending totaled
$4.29 billion USD in 2012 Q4, on a
seasonally adjusted basis. This represents
a -9.8% annual decline in spend, slightly
worse than the $4.32 billion we projected
for Q4 in our GBTA BTI™ Outlook
2012H2. Spending on business travel in
Spain totaled $17.9 billion USD in 2012
(€13.9 billion), down 7.9% from $19.4
billion USD in 2011.
Recovery in Spain continues to be elusive,
which is reflected in our downgraded
forecast for business travel over 2013.
Why? (1) Unemployment remains a stubbornly high at 26% with no signs of falling; (2) although the yields have fallen
slightly on Spanish bonds, borrowing costs are still relatively high; (3) an aging population and the troubled Spanish
pension system will need to be addressed; (4) and prices continue to fall in Spain’s real estate market. In fact, Spain’s
housing bubble has cost properties approximately 40% of their value since 2007.
We expect spending on Spanish business travel will continue to decrease, quarter-over-quarter, through the third quarter
of 2013. In aggregate, Spanish business travel spending is expected to fall another -6.2% in 2013 (to $16.8 billion USD).
In 2014, we expect modest growth, however, with total spending up by 1.8% to $17.1 billion USD -the first increase since
2010.
Both domestic and international outbound business travel will take a hit in 2013, falling -5.4% and -9.4%, respectively.
The growth in 2014 will mostly be driven by domestic business travel, which is projected to grow slightly (2.2%). IOB is
likely to remain relatively flat, expanding 0.1%, over the same period.