Energy 101

Energy 101
Energy Technology and Policy
Dr. Michael E. Webber
The University of Texas at Austin
Module 2: Energy Transitions Over Time
1
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group

For the Last Decade, Headlines Have
Declared the End of Oil
June 2004October 2003 August 2005
2

Today’s Headlines are Very Different
May 2013March 2013
3

Energy situations
can change quickly.
4

Energy transitions
have happened before.
5

Energy Transitions Have a Few Features
•They are more typical than we might expect
•They take a long time
•They tend to follow a path towards higher-performing fuels
•They solve one problem while introducing another
•They tend to follow a path towards decarbonization
6

The U.S. Fuel Mix Has Changed With Time
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
© Michael E. Webber
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads]
Year
Wood Dominant Coal Dominant Oil Dominant
1800–2011 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
7

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2011
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FractionofEnergyMix
Year
The Fuel Mix Has Diversiﬁed Over Time
Petroleum
Nuclear
Renewables
Natural Gas
Coal
1800–2011 U.S. Energy Consumption Share by Source
8

Renewable Energy Consumption Has Grown
Signiﬁcantly in the Last Decade
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
0
1
2
3
4
Year
Hydroelectric
Wood
Biofuels
Wind
Other
1951–2011 U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption by Source
9

The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused
Widespread Deforestation Between 1620–1920
Source: The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, William B. Greeley, 1925 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
1620
10

The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused
Widespread Deforestation Between 1620–1920
Source: The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, William B. Greeley, 1925 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
Each dot represents
25,000 acres.
1620 1920
MillionAcresofVirginForest
Year
820
138
1920
10

Whale Oil Supplies Peaked in the Mid-1800s
1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876
0
4
8
12
AnnualWhaleOilImports[MillionGallons]
Year
“Peak Whale:” 1845
10-year average
1804–1876 U.S. Whale Oil Imports from Whaling Ships
Source: Alexander Starbuck, History of the American Whale Fishery, 1878, pp. 660–661 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
11

Energy Transitions Show a Trend
Toward Decarbonization
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
CarbonIntensityofEnergyConsumption[gC/BTU]
Year
0.021 Petroleum
0.016 Natural Gas
0.027 Coal
0.032 Wood
All Sources
1850–2000 U.S. Carbon Intensity of Energy
Source: A. Grübler and N. Nakicenovic, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 1996, 53, 97–110 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
12

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Have
Recently Decreased
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
0
2
4
6
8
Year
Recession
Fuel Switching
and Efficiency
1951–2011 U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption
AnnualEmissionsofCO2
[BillionMetricTons]
13

The U.S. Energy Situation is Improving
•After 40 years of declining production and increasing
imports, things are turning around
‣Domestic energy production is up: oil, gas, wind, solar, geothermal, bio
‣Energy consumption and imports are down
•The fuel mix is diversifying
•Vehicles and other end-use technologies are improving
performance and efficiency
14

How we use energy has
changed from antiquity to the
Industrial Revolution.
15

There Were Several Forms and Applications
of Kinetic Energy in Antiquity
Wiki Commons
•Medieval forms of kinetic energy
‣Dutch and Flemish windmills
‣Medieval water wheels
‣Sails
‣Muscle power
•Medieval uses of kinetic energy
‣Sawing wood
‣Grinding grain
‣Polishing glass
‣Transportation
16

There Were Several Forms and Applications
of Thermal Energy in Antiquity
•Medieval uses of
thermal energy
‣Cooking
‣Making glass
‣Boiling soap
‣Making lime
•Medieval forms of
thermal energy
‣Wood
‣Charcoal
‣Peat
‣Dung
‣Straw
Frau beim Brotbacken, 1854
17

The Industrial Revolution’s Main Enabler was
a Breakthrough in Energy Conversion
•Invention of steam
engine in 1700s enables
conversion of thermal
energy to kinetic energy
•Electricity in 1800s
allows thermal to
electrical to kinetic
energy
18

The oil crises of the 1970s only
temporarily changed behavior
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
Year
U.S. Energy Consumption has Mostly Been a
Story of Growth During the 20th Century
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
19

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year
Fossil Fuels are the Dominant Primary
Energy Source in Modern History
Fossil Fuels
Nuclear
Renewables
20

The USA and World Use Similar Fuel Mixes
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Energy Hydroelectricity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011EnergyConsumption
U.S. [98 quads]
World [531 quads]
2011 USA and World Total Energy Consumption by Fuel
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
Non-Hydro
Renewables
21

The USA and World Both
Rely Heavily on Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels Other Sources
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
13.6%
86.4%
12.9%
87.1%
2011EnergyConsumption
U.S. [98 quads]
World [531 quads]
2011 USA and World Total Energy Consumption by Fuel
22

Dependence on Fossil Fuels Is Diverging
for the USA and World
2008 2009 2010 2011
86%
87%
88%
87.9%
87.3%
87.2%
86.4%
87.2%
87.1%
86.9%
87.1%
FossilFuelConsumption
Year
Worldwide
United States
2008–2011 U.S. and World Fossil Fuel Consumption as Fraction of Overall Fuel Mix
23

“It’s tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
—Yogi Berra
24

1980–2035 U.S. Annual Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 / Annual Energy Outlook 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
Sources of U.S. Energy Supply are Expected
to Change Very Little in the Coming 20 Years
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0
10
20
30
40
50
Year
Historical Projected
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
25

Projections are Often Wrong
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
35
70
105
140
Year
Historical
2012
2011
2007
2008
2006
2006 2012
Year
133.9
104.3
2006–2012 U.S. Annual Energy Consumption Projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 and Annual Energy Outlook 2006–2012
Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
Projected 2030 Annual Energy
Consumption [Quads]
26

Projections for U.S. Natural Gas Imports
Dropped Signiﬁcantly Between 2006 and 2012
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
-2
0
2
4
6
AnnualNetNaturalGasImports[TrillionCubicFeet]
Year
2006 Outlook
2012 Outlook
2003–2035 U.S. Natural Gas Forecast Net Imports
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006, 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin
27

Energy is going through a
transition globally.
28

Several Global Trends are
Driving the Energy System
•Population growth
•Economic growth
•Urbanization
•Industrialization
•Electriﬁcation
•Motorization
29

The Energy Transition will be
Comprised of Three Shifts
•A change in total
demand for energy
‣Population growth pushes
total demand up
‣Economic growth pushes
per capita demand up
•A change in our
end uses of energy
‣All societies electrify over
time
‣All societies motorize
over time
•A change in our
sources of energy
‣Domestic sources
‣Low-carbon sources
‣Sustainable sources
30

Prediction 1: Energy will get
cleaner, smaller, and smarter.
31

Prediction 2: Natural gas will
overtake petroleum as the
dominant fuel source in the
USA within 10 to 20 years.
32

0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034
U.S.Oil&GasConsumption[Quads]
Year
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Slow Transition
Natural Gas Might Overtake Petroleum in the USA
2005–2034 U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption
Historical Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Projections: Michael E. Webber (2013)
34

0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034
Year
Fast Transition
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Slow Transition
34

0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034
Year
Petroleum
Natural Gas
No Transition in EIA Projection
35

Dr. Michael E. Webber
36

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