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4/25/2013
C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T S
FACEBOOK
AND
CHAT APPS
addendumThursday, May 2, 13
A SUPPLEMENTAL TO A PREVIOUS PRESENTATION:
http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile
Gene Keenan
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
“We believe that some of our users, particularly our younger
users, are aware of and actively engaging with other products
and services similar to, or as a substitute for, Facebook.
For example, we believe that some of our users have reduced
their engagement with Facebook in favor of increased
engagement with other products and services such as Instagram.
In the event that our users increasingly engage with other
products and services, we may experience a decline in user
engagement and our business could be harmed.”
From Facebook’s annual 10-K report filed with the
Securities and Exchange Commission in February
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF4
FACEBOOK THREAT DETAILED:
WHAT AND WHY
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
FACEBOOK CIRCA 2009
Facebook at the
center of the
universe
“everyone uses
facebook”
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Facebook can only stay relevant for as long
as they can connect to the next generation
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
All CPG companies know this
best but the razor blade
companies invented a great
hook that pulls in the next
generation
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
The razor blade hook:
You bought the handle
that held the razors
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Target knows this well too
which is why they figured out
how to know if a woman was
pregnant.
VALUE: Convert that user to a
lifetime customer
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF10
WHAT HOOK DOES FACEBOOK USE?
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
FACEBOOK CONNECT
FACEBOOK
CONNECT
https://developers.facebook.com/blog/post/2008/05/09/announcing-facebook-connect/
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Facebook Connect:
Your passport to quickly
connecting and logging
into any site
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF13
HOW IT WORKS IN THEORY
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
FACEBOOK CONNECT
WEB SITES
CONNECT TO
FACEBOOK
Makes it easier to
comment on
posts and stories
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
LOGIN TO SERVICE/SITE VIA FACEBOOK CONNECT
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
FACEBOOK CONNECT | CONNECT TO PASSION SITES
“PASSION”
COMMUNITIES CONNECT
TO FACEBOOK TOO
Makes it easier to join
communities that focus
on individual passions.
Easier to share those
activities
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
CHALLENGE:
OTHER SERVICES
NOW OFFER THIS
SAME “FEATURE”
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
THIS CREATES COMPETITION FOR ATTENTION:
As younger audiences that don’t adopt Facebook
the connections become even more tenuous
DECLINE ON DEPENDENCE OF FACEBOOK
Login via FB or not or use another service
Login via FB
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF19
THE HARSHER REALITY:
FACEBOOK IS NOT A GOOD PLACE
FOR PASSION SPECIFICITY
+
http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF20
DO YOU REALLY WANT YOUR ____
SEEING YOUR PASSION FOR ____?
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO SHARE YOUR PASSION FOR____ WITH EVERYONE?
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
TO PROVE THE POINT:
Bang With Friends
An extreme example
of intimate passion
networks
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
FUELED BY INDIVIDUAL
PASSIONS SHARED BY A
SELECT GROUP
“Anonymity” returns
RESULT: “ANONYMITY” RETURNS
Example: Smaller more intimate group. You can
login via FB or create a new account
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
FREE AS I WANT TO BE
NOT CONNECTED
But I could be...
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
It’s really just this all over again...
http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mbdugf2qN11rs9uv6.png
New Cliques
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Why Google created
“CIRCLES”and why
FB hired Paul Adams
away from Google.
BOTH GOOGLE AND FB KNOW THIS
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Paul Adams brings
paradigm of Google+
Circles to FB
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF27
What Are The Kids Saying (outside the US)?
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF28
'Facebook is not interesting any more'
Young people in Singapore on why they use chat apps
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21323155
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
THE COMING TIDAL WAVE
“CHAT” applications
threatening FB domain
LINE
120MM users
400k+ a day
WECHAT
300MM users
KaKaoTalk
70MM users
WhatsAPP
200MM+ users
Bigger than
Twitter
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF30
MOST OF THESE APPS HAVE ONLY
BEEN AROUND FOR 24–30 MONTHS!
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
IT’S BIG
BIGGER
THAN SMS
Chat applications
are bigger than
we think.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22334338
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF32
CHAT APPLICATIONS ARE SMS
REINVENTED FOR A NEW GENERATION
THINK ABOUT IT
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
FACEBOOK CHAT HEADS
Why Facebook
created FB “HOME”
and “Chat Heads:”
To staunch the flow
of subs to other
platforms
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Before they establish too big of a
beach head here on their home land
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF35
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
only eight of the students listed Facebook as their most-used social
network. For eleven of them, it didn’t rank in the top three (Instagram
was by far the most popular). Other, more formal surveys have found
that Tumblr might actually be the teen social network of choice now. In
fact, Facebook itself even acknowledged the challenge of keeping
teens engaged in its annual 10-K report filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission in February. In a list of the risk factors that could
affect the company’s future success, Facebook stated:
http://business.time.com/2013/03/08/is-facebook-losing-its-cool-some-teens-think-so/#ixzz2S9aPtijB
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
RECAP
Concerns over
“privacy” by
mature
Facebookers
Less than
perfect adoption
by this years
teens
37
+Chat applications
+ + Competing
services
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
LOOKING FORWARD
Facebook is smart.
They understand these threats.
Watch for future acquisitions from FB if they can’t
copy their competitors.
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF39
BUT REMEMBER...
they will still be up against the inherent limitation of their structure
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Close intimate lasting
conversations
Group experiences, exciting
but not intimate
Brand X or Artist Y might be a
passion point but when that
interaction takes place in
Facebook it becomes less
authentic because it’s not
close and intimate
THEY ARE BETTER AT FIREWORKS NOT CAMP FIRES: NOT INTIMATE OR PRIVATE
Chat apps, Path, etc. FACEBOOK
Thursday, May 2, 13
TCF
Thanks for looking
CONTACT:
Gene Keenan
gene@thecollectivefactory.com
415-218.7369
http://www.thecollectivefactory.com
For a more in-depth look:
http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile
Thursday, May 2, 13

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Facebook Chat App Threat

  • 1. 4/25/2013 C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T S FACEBOOK AND CHAT APPS addendumThursday, May 2, 13
  • 2. A SUPPLEMENTAL TO A PREVIOUS PRESENTATION: http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile Gene Keenan Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 3. TCF “We believe that some of our users, particularly our younger users, are aware of and actively engaging with other products and services similar to, or as a substitute for, Facebook. For example, we believe that some of our users have reduced their engagement with Facebook in favor of increased engagement with other products and services such as Instagram. In the event that our users increasingly engage with other products and services, we may experience a decline in user engagement and our business could be harmed.” From Facebook’s annual 10-K report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in February Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 4. TCF4 FACEBOOK THREAT DETAILED: WHAT AND WHY Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 5. TCF FACEBOOK CIRCA 2009 Facebook at the center of the universe “everyone uses facebook” Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 6. TCF Facebook can only stay relevant for as long as they can connect to the next generation Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 7. TCF All CPG companies know this best but the razor blade companies invented a great hook that pulls in the next generation Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 8. TCF The razor blade hook: You bought the handle that held the razors Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 9. TCF Target knows this well too which is why they figured out how to know if a woman was pregnant. VALUE: Convert that user to a lifetime customer http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 10. TCF10 WHAT HOOK DOES FACEBOOK USE? Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 12. TCF Facebook Connect: Your passport to quickly connecting and logging into any site Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 13. TCF13 HOW IT WORKS IN THEORY Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 14. TCF FACEBOOK CONNECT WEB SITES CONNECT TO FACEBOOK Makes it easier to comment on posts and stories Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 15. TCF LOGIN TO SERVICE/SITE VIA FACEBOOK CONNECT Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 16. TCF FACEBOOK CONNECT | CONNECT TO PASSION SITES “PASSION” COMMUNITIES CONNECT TO FACEBOOK TOO Makes it easier to join communities that focus on individual passions. Easier to share those activities Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 17. TCF CHALLENGE: OTHER SERVICES NOW OFFER THIS SAME “FEATURE” Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 18. TCF THIS CREATES COMPETITION FOR ATTENTION: As younger audiences that don’t adopt Facebook the connections become even more tenuous DECLINE ON DEPENDENCE OF FACEBOOK Login via FB or not or use another service Login via FB Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 19. TCF19 THE HARSHER REALITY: FACEBOOK IS NOT A GOOD PLACE FOR PASSION SPECIFICITY + http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 20. TCF20 DO YOU REALLY WANT YOUR ____ SEEING YOUR PASSION FOR ____? DO YOU REALLY WANT TO SHARE YOUR PASSION FOR____ WITH EVERYONE? Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 21. TCF TO PROVE THE POINT: Bang With Friends An extreme example of intimate passion networks Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 22. TCF FUELED BY INDIVIDUAL PASSIONS SHARED BY A SELECT GROUP “Anonymity” returns RESULT: “ANONYMITY” RETURNS Example: Smaller more intimate group. You can login via FB or create a new account Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 23. TCF FREE AS I WANT TO BE NOT CONNECTED But I could be... Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 24. TCF It’s really just this all over again... http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mbdugf2qN11rs9uv6.png New Cliques Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 25. TCF Why Google created “CIRCLES”and why FB hired Paul Adams away from Google. BOTH GOOGLE AND FB KNOW THIS Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 26. TCF Paul Adams brings paradigm of Google+ Circles to FB Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 27. TCF27 What Are The Kids Saying (outside the US)? Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 28. TCF28 'Facebook is not interesting any more' Young people in Singapore on why they use chat apps http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21323155 Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 29. TCF THE COMING TIDAL WAVE “CHAT” applications threatening FB domain LINE 120MM users 400k+ a day WECHAT 300MM users KaKaoTalk 70MM users WhatsAPP 200MM+ users Bigger than Twitter Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 30. TCF30 MOST OF THESE APPS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND FOR 24–30 MONTHS! Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 31. TCF IT’S BIG BIGGER THAN SMS Chat applications are bigger than we think. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22334338 Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 32. TCF32 CHAT APPLICATIONS ARE SMS REINVENTED FOR A NEW GENERATION THINK ABOUT IT Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 33. TCF FACEBOOK CHAT HEADS Why Facebook created FB “HOME” and “Chat Heads:” To staunch the flow of subs to other platforms Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 34. TCF Before they establish too big of a beach head here on their home land Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 36. TCF only eight of the students listed Facebook as their most-used social network. For eleven of them, it didn’t rank in the top three (Instagram was by far the most popular). Other, more formal surveys have found that Tumblr might actually be the teen social network of choice now. In fact, Facebook itself even acknowledged the challenge of keeping teens engaged in its annual 10-K report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in February. In a list of the risk factors that could affect the company’s future success, Facebook stated: http://business.time.com/2013/03/08/is-facebook-losing-its-cool-some-teens-think-so/#ixzz2S9aPtijB Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 37. TCF RECAP Concerns over “privacy” by mature Facebookers Less than perfect adoption by this years teens 37 +Chat applications + + Competing services Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 38. TCF LOOKING FORWARD Facebook is smart. They understand these threats. Watch for future acquisitions from FB if they can’t copy their competitors. Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 39. TCF39 BUT REMEMBER... they will still be up against the inherent limitation of their structure Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 40. TCF Close intimate lasting conversations Group experiences, exciting but not intimate Brand X or Artist Y might be a passion point but when that interaction takes place in Facebook it becomes less authentic because it’s not close and intimate THEY ARE BETTER AT FIREWORKS NOT CAMP FIRES: NOT INTIMATE OR PRIVATE Chat apps, Path, etc. FACEBOOK Thursday, May 2, 13
  • 41. TCF Thanks for looking CONTACT: Gene Keenan gene@thecollectivefactory.com 415-218.7369 http://www.thecollectivefactory.com For a more in-depth look: http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile Thursday, May 2, 13