Jacques Baud, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division, NATO
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"Dimensions of armed violence and insecurity in Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia" Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development Geneva, Switzerland | 8-9 July 2014
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Jacques Baud, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division, NATO
- 1. 1351J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 ARMED VIOLENCE IN EUROPE, THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA SMALL ARMS & LIGHT WEAPONS TRAFFICKING July 8, 2014 Jacques F. Baud
- 2. 1352J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 110’000 170’000 SMALL ARMS SMALL ARMS DISTRIBUTED AND LOST IN IRAQ (2004) 185’000 80’000
- 3. 1353J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 ARMS TRANSFER • Inconsistent approach from Western countries – Support despite poor understanding of ground realities; – Clandestine/parallel support may convey the wrong signal. • Increased granularity of transfers – Opportunistic cooperation – Shifting “centres of gravity”
- 4. 1354J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 FLUID INTERACTION BETWEEN ARMED GROUPS TOW 2 ANTITANK MISSILE – HARAKAT HAZM (SYRIA) WORKS WITH… SHARE WEAPONS WITH…
- 5. 1355J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 EMERGING NEW INDUSTRY WEAPONS MANUFACTURED BY SUNNI REBEL GROUPS
- 6. 1356J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 TERRITORIAL MILITIAS ESTIMATED 15’000 Local territorial militias established by Ukraine prior to the events. ARMED VOLUNTEERS ESTIMATED 4’000 Russian-speaking hunting societies and other associations that joined the insurrection RUSSIAN MILITARY UP TO 25’000 Troopers deployed as per agreement with Ukraine up to 2017 (extended to 2042 in 2010). Allowed to be deployed for security purposes. UKRAINIAN DEFECTORS ESTIMATED 9’000 Russian-speaking soldiers and military units that defected to Russia early 2014. ‘L"TTLE GREEN MEN’ (CRIMEA) Where do the weapons come from ?
- 7. 1357J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 BUILDING SECURITY IN THE AFGHAN REGION POST-2014 / JOINT NATO-SIPRI INITIATIVE • Leveraging human security to promote regional dialogue – Generate regional cooperation on day-to-day solutions • Regional ownership – Related to the Istanbul Process – State and Non-State Actors – NATO as a catalyst only
- 8. 1358J. Baud 8-9 July 2014 SUMMARY • Importance of Lessons Learned • Importance of partnerships – Mediterranean Dialogue – Istanbul Cooperation Initiative • Development of International cooperation with multilateral organisations – Addressing issues holistically within the framework of NATO’s expertise – Exploiting synergies with other actors
Notes de l'éditeur
- Focus on so diverse regions tends to distract from other phenomenon. The recent publication of a map of the Caliphate by the Islamic State in Iraq and Levant showing the indicates that beyond the legitimacy and the feasibility, some have a vision
- Yellow figure represents the weapons lost without trace between June and December 2014. considering that the estimated number of combatants in Iraq and Syria today is about 100’000,
- Western approach to SALW marked by conflicting interests. Partly because parties of the conflict are not thoroughly assessed.
- Weapons are not only provided to so-called “moderate” armed groups known to cooperate with more radical groups, but these weapons because of their range can be used from within the border of neighboring countries, thus threatening to widen the conflict. Further, we can notice a radicalization of moderate groups.
- Local development and production of weapons may look anecdotal, but may have strategic implications, as we have seen in august 2013 with chemical weapons.
- We tend to oversimplify conflict parameters, leading to excessive wording, and to closing the door to dialogue and solution finding