Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Future of Music,
Media and Content:
Free, Shared and... Paid?
Presentation by Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com

Free book PDF www.music20thebook.com


I am standing on the shoulders of many giants...
Don Tapscott: Wikinomics
Yochai Benkler: The Wealth of Networks
Clay Shirky: Here comes Everybody
Jeff Howe: Crowdsourcing
Chris Anderson: The LongTail
Seth Godin: Meatloaf Sundae
Larry Lessig: Remix, Free Culture

P.S.: there is little
futurism in today’s
presentation ;)


Today’s key message: Less Control will bring

more Success and more Income to the Content

Creators and the Content Industries

The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’
• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly
growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)
• Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model
(Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)
• Broadband culture drives further commodization
• What used to be paid for is now often free
• Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for
the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)
• Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition
• There is more content consumption than ever before -
but where is the ‘new money’?

Global Broadband Penetration
Global Mobile Penetration
Percentage of People with Computers
Total

231%

122%
99% 99%
74% 80%
61%

30% 33%

6% 7% 12%

Today 2-3 years 5-7 years
Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required


Disruption
Reinvention

The Copyright dilemma (1)

The Copyright dilemma (2)


Right ... for the law - but
wrong for the $$ !


Rather...


• Is the quest for Control realistic?
• Will it make Money?
• Will it be fair and equitable?
• Will it create a Culture & Society in
which we will want to live in?
• Can Control work everywhere?


Stop this?


We
cannot
wall-in our
Content in this future


Compete with Free?

We don’t compete with
free copies.
We sell everything else.


How to make your customers angry:

Do we really want Criminalization?

http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/


Why has Sharing become a bad thing?

Sharing is a key driver


A world of NO permission is a world of NO $


Moving from take-down to permission


This is a very serious change - and opportunity!

Copy Economy

Access / Usage /
Sharing Economy

Average Available Time Available Choices
Average Available Attention Amount of Input
Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation Need for Community of Content
Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%
Was Is Soon The Future


So this is not about technology!

The Age of Ideas
Emerging cultural practices
New business models

Alternatives to Control

http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/


Command & Control
becomes
Coordinate & Cultivate
*Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”


If we bet on Control, we are putting
our money in the wrong place

The alternatives...


No - these
are not
California
Hippy-Geek
Dreams!


• Give Permission - and collect revenue shares
• License digital music like Radio - and collect
revenue shares everywhere
• Engage and converse with the users - and
get their data in return
• Switch to a YES approach NOW

Because

Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest,
rather than Monopoly, is the key to sustainable growth


Selling content: finding the new money
Next Generation Advertising Freemium
Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives
Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies)

20% 20%

10%
15%

35%


Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences

Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

100%
Value of Context
Value of Experience
75%

50%

Value of Meta-Content
25%
Value of ‘a Copy’

0%
Was Is Soon The Future

New Value: Meta-Content
*aka Data

• User ratings & recommendations
• User reviews
• User tagging and annotating
• User bookmarking
• User sharing / forwarding
• User editing / remixing
• User republishing

The new Content Economy: the User is a major force

The Solution

The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable

~1910

+ =

+
=
~2009?


P e r m i s s i o n .
E n g a g e m e n t .
C o n v e r s a t i o n .
T h e F u t u r e .

Next Generation Advertising


F o r g e t

A d v e r t i s i n g

a s w e k n o w i t .

R e i n v e n t .


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues
Attention Based Revenues

Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Freemium


Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized
the solution is to offer valuable intangibles:
1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery
2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ
3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance
4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing
5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however
6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging
7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)
8. Findability & Curation

Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e

Yes... we do!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/

To summarize


Thanks for your attention!

TALK BACK:
★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
★ twitter.com/gleonhard
★ facebook: gleonhard
★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com
★ Thought-Stream at www.gerdstream.com

Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08

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Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08