This is a version of the slides I presented at a talk I at the SKAP / DFAM event in Stockholm, Nov 28, 2013 see http://www.futuristgerd.com/2013/11/28/my-presentation-at-dafm-skap-event-in-stockholm-today-pdf-a-futuristic-outlook-on-the-creator-consumer-the-business-in-between/

1. FuturistGerd.com
@gleonhard
A futuristic outlook on the creator,
consumer & the business in between

2. Most of what I am about to share
with you is actually good news…
Photo by Dr Case - http://flic.kr/p/5fiGgf
Photo by Michael Cordedda - http://flic.kr/p/9cDmTe

3. Music: is Sweden (and Scandinavia) showing us the future?

4. E-M-P-O-W-E-R-M-E-N-T

5. Digitization
☯
Music Creators

6. @gleonhard
Global Transformation driven by Digitization:
When Products become Services and Experiences, the creator becomes even more crucial
Product
Service
Experience

7. All media is shifting from protection to engagement
Photo by WallStreet Journal.com

8. Maybe this is a
good time to…
rights licensing
across Europe?
@gleonhard

9. Disembodiment
of Media
@gleonhard

10. The rapid disembodiment of music will force
us to create a collective, EU-wide solution

11. Copying ☯
Listening
@gleonhard

12. … the incarnation of this trend: mobile!

13. Value Axis
The inevitable result of digitization: lower per-unit revenues
- Offensive Innovation is crucial Potential ‘Digital Audience’
Revenue per 'Unit'
100
75
50
CD &
Vinyl
iTunes
25
Spotify
0
Pandora
Youtube*
@gleonhard

14. Music is not unique in this: massive consumer
empowerment’s inevitable consequence is price reduction
@gleonhard

15. As distribution becomes abundant, new things become scarce
Abundance of
ways to ‘get music’
New
Scarcities:
Attention
Brand
Relevance
Context
Timeliness
Embodiment…

16. The Music Industry Curse: Ego
Photo by Homies In Heaven - http://flic.kr/p/d6Ff2C

18. Industrial & Mechanical ☯ Digital & Exponential
Controlling Distribution ☯ Monetizing Attention
Largely monopolistic EGOsystems ☯ Collective ECOsystems

19. “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the
turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker
http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2012/08/27/pirating-music-kill-a-horse-instead-7-crimes-not-as-bad-as-illegally-downloading-music/

20. Many new value generatives i.e. a ‘Royal Family’
http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/APDwKZ3i-RJ/Nobel+Prize+Award+Ceremony+2008/8XVWQBpueY7/King+Carl+Gustaf+XVI

21. Digital Money is a certain future: not if butabout where…WHO
No longer about distribution but when, attention

22. In large, hardwaredominated markets
(US, UK, Germany
etc), ‘fake
ownership’ of
music used to
work - but fast
decline is certain!

23. There is no long-term mass market for digital single downloads but mobile music and download-HD-to-keep as a premium product has great potential !

24. Fake Scarcity is misleading both the artists and the consumers

25. Managed dissatisfaction is not a sustainable business model
*Reed Hastings, Netflix
http://evolver.fm/2013/07/23/paid-music-downloads-are-declining-but-why/
$
$
“Managed
Dissatisfaction ”
Image via Popsci.com

26. 43 Million subscribers in 23 countries: be irresistible!

27. Distribution as a key revenue driver or as
competitive advantage is a ‘burning platform’
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

28. Distribution as a key revenue driver or as
Brand & Audience is a ‘burning platform’
competitive advantage
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

29. I am happy to pay cash (or data i.e. attention) for highly personalized,
timely, social, meaningful, relevant, high-resolution content but it must be on 100% irresistible terms: simple, easy, fair

30. The message is clear: consumers want cheap, bundled or ‘feels
like free’ access first, and will only then consider going further
2010
http://musicbusinessresearch.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/is-streaming-the-next-big-thing-what-consumers-want/

31. RYTHING
ATS EVE
EE BE
FR
UTION IS
DISTRIB
OLLING
CONTR
SENTIAL
ES
EVANCE
ST-REL
LUE-TRU
VA
ERVICE
TEXT-S
CON
EPING
AND KE
RNING
EA
ENTIAL
IS ESS
NTION
ATTE

32. The ‘forced evolution’ of music
Sell
copies
Sell
Premiums
License
Access

33. Yes, we already have a model for this
but the legal structure of music commerce must be transformed urgently

34. A €10 Billion recorded music market in Europe?
1€ per Internet user in Europe / month for basic streaming & offline service
Approx. 600 Million Internet users in Europe x 12 = 7.2 Billion per year
This would be 40% of current global recorded music earnings in 2012
The 1 € could easily be paid for by telcos / ISPs / portals (advertising)
Up-selling to 10+ premiums could yield another 30-50% revenues
Add another 400 Million mobile phone users…

35. Music is indispensable to the next generation media powerhouses
…and these
guys already
see music as
disembodied,
mobile, cloudbased ‘added
value’ …+++

36. Can Europe create
a new digital
music Ecosystem?

37. Music industry reset: think ‘Biosphere’ not ‘Myosphere’

38. COLLABORATE
- NOW OR GET
SQUASHED BY
FAST INNOVATORS

39. We are
at a
pivotal
point

40. The CD (physical media) is quickly disappearing in the rearview mirror: (em)brace
‘Managed dissatisfaction’ (such as iTunes) won’t make the pie bigger
Beyond a doubt, streaming and ‘access’ is the new ownership: new laws needed!
‘Access’ may result in a 90% reduced ‘unit price’ but has x1000 audience
We need digital music licenses that enable Billions of users to contribute $€£
Many new premiums can be offered on-top of ‘feels-like-free access’
The new (old:) ‘embodiment’ of music is the artist and the brand, themselves
Social media, video, mobile (SoViMo) are huge opportunities: get engaged!
In the EU, we need offensive innovation, real leadership and hyper-collaboration

41. Thanks for your time and attention...
Now, let’s talk!