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Beyond Rio+20: Water Security as a Catalyst for
                 Climate-Resilient Development
 A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK
 FOR CLIMATE SERVICES


     by M. Jarraud
  WMO Secretary-General


    Presented at the
Global Water Partnership's
Annual Consulting Partners
        Meeting

(Stockholm, 26 August 2012)
The climate system
            2
   (IPCC 2007)
Global, regional & local effects affect
 different societies in different ways




                                           3
                       (From WMO Pub No. 952)
El Niño forecasting:
    a successful
      example
Climate change introduces additional
                   complexity and uncertainty




 The past is no longer a trustworthy indicator of the future
 New paradigms required to support decision-making
Key anticipated
                impacts on water
 Altered precipitation regimes at different
  latitudes
 Regional variations in flooding and
  drought
 Water stored in glaciers and snow cover
  projected to decline
 Induced changes in soil moisture &
  vapotranspiration
 Mounting salinity intrusion through sea-
  level rise                                   Peru's Quelccaya ice cap
                                                (National Geographic
                                                       Society )
Billions of USD per decade                    Geological
                                                                                                                            495

                                500
                                450                                                 Hydrometeorological

                                400                                                                        345

                                350
                                300

Economic losses                 250
                                200                                                                 160


related to disasters            150
                                                                                           88
                                                                                                                   103



are increasing                  100
                                 50         4     11          14
                                                                      24
                                                                                   47




                                  0
                                          56-65               66-75               76-85           86-95           96-05
                                                                                                                             decade

                               Millions of casualties per decade                                          Geological


But we are                3
                                          2.66
                                                                                                          Hydrometeorological

saving lives             2.5


                          2                                   1.73




                         1.5
Source: EM-DAT: The
OFDA/CRED                 1                                                         0.65                         0.67
International Disaster
                                                                           0.39
Database                 0.5                                                                     0.22   0.25             0.22
                                                       0.17
                                   0.05


                          0                                                                                             7
                                  56-65                66-75               76-85                86-95            96-05
                                                                                                                            decade
WMO and UN-Water at
     Rio + 20




                      8
Climate information
            for decision-making
  Identifying the potential users
 Agriculture and food security
 Disaster risk reduction
 Energy production, transport and usage
 Finance and insurance
 Health
 Water quality and water
  resources management
 Trade and commerce
 Transport
 Tourism
 Urban development/management
 Recreation and sports
 ...and many more...                      9
10
11
4 initial GFCS priority sectors




 Water
 Food security
 Health
 Disaster risk reduction
                                                12
GFCS structure




                 13
3 key challenges:   1) Bridging global observational gaps
                      2) Incorporating non-traditional data
                      3) Data exchange issues




                                                        14
Research, Modeling and Prediction: towards a
            seamless transition
Climate Services
Information System
                     16
User Interface Platform




                          17
Examples of initial
           GFCS elements




31st Greater Horn of Africa Climate
Outlook Forum; Djibouti, May 2012


Capacity Development to
extend GFCS benefits to the           IGAD Pilot RCC: Greater Horn of
developing world                      Africa consensus-driven climate
                                                                   18
                                      outlook; July - September 2011
Other examples
Possible initial implementation
                     activities & projects
 Establish Framework leadership & management
 Define national mandates in climate services provision
 Strengthen capabilities in disaster risk reduction
 Improve communication between climate, agriculture
  and food security communities
 Enhance partnerships between climate services and
  water resources management
 Develop national working groups in climate and health
 Improve decision-making on climate-related risks
 Strengthen climate information regional infrastructure
 Advance in data recovery and digitizing
 Launch pilot projects
Summing-up
 3 closely-related issues:
     Adaptation to climate
       variability and change
     Disaster risk reduction
     Sustainable development &
       societal benefits
 Requirements:
     Reinforcing developing
       countries' adaptive
       capabilities
     Multidisciplinary partnerships
       across all sectors
     Capacity building to be seen
       as an investment, not an
       expenditure
A key opportunity:
     A Global Framework for
       Climate Services
Thank you




            22

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Beyond Rio+20: Water Security as a Catalyst for Climate-Resilient Development by M. Jarraud

  • 1. Beyond Rio+20: Water Security as a Catalyst for Climate-Resilient Development A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES by M. Jarraud WMO Secretary-General Presented at the Global Water Partnership's Annual Consulting Partners Meeting (Stockholm, 26 August 2012)
  • 2. The climate system 2 (IPCC 2007)
  • 3. Global, regional & local effects affect different societies in different ways 3 (From WMO Pub No. 952)
  • 4. El Niño forecasting: a successful example
  • 5. Climate change introduces additional complexity and uncertainty  The past is no longer a trustworthy indicator of the future  New paradigms required to support decision-making
  • 6. Key anticipated impacts on water  Altered precipitation regimes at different latitudes  Regional variations in flooding and drought  Water stored in glaciers and snow cover projected to decline  Induced changes in soil moisture & vapotranspiration  Mounting salinity intrusion through sea- level rise Peru's Quelccaya ice cap (National Geographic Society )
  • 7. Billions of USD per decade Geological 495 500 450 Hydrometeorological 400 345 350 300 Economic losses 250 200 160 related to disasters 150 88 103 are increasing 100 50 4 11 14 24 47 0 56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade Millions of casualties per decade Geological But we are 3 2.66 Hydrometeorological saving lives 2.5 2 1.73 1.5 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED 1 0.65 0.67 International Disaster 0.39 Database 0.5 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.17 0.05 0 7 56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade
  • 8. WMO and UN-Water at Rio + 20 8
  • 9. Climate information for decision-making Identifying the potential users  Agriculture and food security  Disaster risk reduction  Energy production, transport and usage  Finance and insurance  Health  Water quality and water resources management  Trade and commerce  Transport  Tourism  Urban development/management  Recreation and sports  ...and many more... 9
  • 10. 10
  • 11. 11
  • 12. 4 initial GFCS priority sectors  Water  Food security  Health  Disaster risk reduction 12
  • 14. 3 key challenges: 1) Bridging global observational gaps 2) Incorporating non-traditional data 3) Data exchange issues 14
  • 15. Research, Modeling and Prediction: towards a seamless transition
  • 18. Examples of initial GFCS elements 31st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum; Djibouti, May 2012 Capacity Development to extend GFCS benefits to the IGAD Pilot RCC: Greater Horn of developing world Africa consensus-driven climate 18 outlook; July - September 2011
  • 20. Possible initial implementation activities & projects  Establish Framework leadership & management  Define national mandates in climate services provision  Strengthen capabilities in disaster risk reduction  Improve communication between climate, agriculture and food security communities  Enhance partnerships between climate services and water resources management  Develop national working groups in climate and health  Improve decision-making on climate-related risks  Strengthen climate information regional infrastructure  Advance in data recovery and digitizing  Launch pilot projects
  • 21. Summing-up  3 closely-related issues:  Adaptation to climate variability and change  Disaster risk reduction  Sustainable development & societal benefits  Requirements:  Reinforcing developing countries' adaptive capabilities  Multidisciplinary partnerships across all sectors  Capacity building to be seen as an investment, not an expenditure A key opportunity:  A Global Framework for Climate Services
  • 22. Thank you 22