This document discusses the risks of continuing economic growth within planetary boundaries and finite resources. It argues that the current economic system is unsustainable and a new paradigm is needed that incorporates environmental and social costs. Specific problems highlighted include climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and resource constraints like peak oil. The document calls for reforms in many areas including economic indicators, business models, finance, policy frameworks and education to enable a transition to a sustainable society within planetary boundaries.

1. Bankrupting Nature
Global risks and pathways to
global sustainability
Anders Wijkman and Johan Rockström
Gothenburg 20th February 2013 1

2. Motivet för ”Den stora förnekelsen”
och ”Bankrupting Nature”
• Växande gap mellan den traditionella
ekonomin och Naturen
• Växande gap mellan Finansmarknaden och
den reella ekonomin
• Dagens system – med konventionell tillväxt
och konsumtion som ökar - är inte hållbart
• Men det finns andra – och mer hållbara - sätt
att organisera ekonomin

3. Vi lånar av framtiden
• Skulderna i relation till BNP inom OECD gått från 160 %
1980 till över 320 % idag. Som ett KORTHUS – inte hållbart
• Nya finansbubblor att vänta – och samhället får ta stöten
• Vi lånar av naturen. Miljö- och resursutrymmet krymper:
- Klimatförändringen
- 2/3 av viktigaste ekosystemen överutnyttjas
- Planetens Gränsvillkor
- ”Peak oil”, ”Peak fosfor”, ”Peak rare earths”
• Därtill kommer den sociala utmaningen: inkomstskillnader
+ arbetslöshet
• Digitaliseringen av samhället påverkar alla sektorer – och
många jobb försvinner medan färre nyskapas
• Kan dagens kapitalism klara övergången till en hållbar
ekonomi? En alternativ modell behövs – men hur ser den ut?

5. 3-6-9
5 Photos: Mattias Klum

6. Humanity has reached a planetary
saturation point
The Human ability to do has vastly
outstripped our ability to
understand
A resilient biosphere the basis for
humen development
Fierce urgency of now
A great transformation to global
sustainability necessary, possible,
and desirable
Johan Rockström and Carl
2013-02-22 Folke, Stockholm Resilience
Centre

8. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters

9. Atmospheric CO2 concentration
Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

10. Northern hemisphere average surface
temperature
Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

11. Atmospheric N2O concentration
Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

12. Atmospheric CH4 concentration
Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

13. Ozone depletion
JD Shanklin British Antarctic Survey
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

14. Natural climactic disasters
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

15. Ocean ecosystems
FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical database
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

16. Coastal zone nitrogen flux
Mackenzie et al 2002.
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

17. Tropical rainforest and
woodland loss
Richards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

18. Domesticated land
Klein Goldewijk and Batties
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

19. Species extinctions
Wilson, the Diversity of Life.
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

22. Photo Mattias Klum

23. Photo Mattias Klum
2 Photo: Mattias Klum
3

24. Multiple Interacting driving forces pushing
systems towards tipping points
Natural Fire regimes
Biomass burning
Palm-oil expansion
El Nino
El Nino goes from regenerative to
destructive force
Breaking millennia long Fire-El
Nino relationship for Dipterocarp
trees

25. +

26. The Resilience of the Earth System

27. Humanity’s 10,000 years of grace

28. Ozone
depletion
Climate Atmospheric
change aerosol loading
Biogeochemical
loading: Ocean
Global N & P cycles acidification
Planetary
Rate of Boundaries Global
biodiversity loss freshwater
use
Land system Chemical
change pollution

29. Transgressing safe
boundaries
Global fresh-
water use
…
Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475

30. Climate
Global Warming did not stop in 1998
- as many deniers claim
Source: Skeptical Science, Church et al 2011

32. Photo: CC Jason Auch / Azote

33. Photo: S Zeff / Azote

34. Klimatförändringens risker
Uncertain uncertainty
3 ºC 6 ºC
34

35. Global emission pathways in
compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail
(WBGU 2009)

36. Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)
Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions
T%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%)TTTTT
The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the 1990-2011
cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%)
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

37. Interactions among Planetary Boundaries
10
9 Resilience of
8 the Earth
Gt Carbon/yr
7 ocean
system
6
5 land
4
3
2
1 atmosphere
0
Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007

38. Merchants of Doubt
• Tobacco, Acid rain, CFC and now Climate
change – the same tactics
• Financed by oil and coal lobby, but – as well
– by right-wing think tanks, who view every
attempt of gvt regulation of the economy as a
threat to Freedom
• Ideology blocks new
knowledge – ex Kahan´s
study

39. Climate negotiations are not likely to deliver – at
least not in time
Almost 20 years of negotiations and still no
agreement
Negotiations must continue, but a Plan B must
be developed
We have to look for Ad hoc-solutions

40. Inte bara klimat – även ekosystem
som urholkas och resursknapphet
• Vi har dålig förståelse av vad exponentiell tillväxt
innebär - Ett land som Kina – med 7-10 % tillväxt
per år – innebär en fördubbling av ekonomin på
mindre än tio år
• Konsekvensen av den snabba tillväxten, inte bara
i Kina, är att energi, mark och vatten kommer att
vara knappa resurser i framtiden
• Klimatförändringen förstärker problemen – inte
minst försörjningen med mat
• Men ekonomin och politiken hanterar inte detta

41. ”Peak oil” major threat to prosperity
• Cheap oil is the main reason behind rapid increase in standard-
of-living
• Projected increase in demand will require a new Saudi every
third year, posing risk of gap between demand and supply
• Serious consequences for world economy – Energy transition
takes time
• Hype around shale oil and shale gas – great uncertainties
re possible reserves to extract and environment and
climate risks; leakage from shale gas appear large
• Military and security think tanks have issued repeated
warnings about peak oil and its consequences

42. EROI will become increasingly
important:
• EROI for crude oil until 1970 – 50:1 to 100:1
• Today < 20:1
• EROI for tar sand in Canada – c:a 5:1
• EROI for wind – > 10:1
• EROI for ”ethanol from corn” – 1:1
• EROI for nuclear – ?
• EROI for solar energy – > 15:1
Critical issue: energy cost relative to GDP

43. Peak oil and rising energy prices will
have serious consequences
• Cheap oil main reason for prosperity
• Growing gap between demand and supply
• Higher prices will affect growth
• Certain sectors will be severely hit, like
transport and agriculture
• Tensions – and potential conflicts – around
energy access are likely
• The world would need an Oil Protocol

44. Investments in Renewables and
Efficiency on the rise – but too slow
• Many barriers to investments:
- information lacking
- split incentives
- finance; less support for renewables in 2012 than 2011
- time to commerzialise new technology and scale up.
- hype around shale oil and shale gas
- intermittency
- land and water requirements
- EROI

45. Real commodity prices, 1980-2011*
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Energy Metals & Minerals Agriculture
Note: 2011 is Jan-Feb average

46. In a resource-constrained world
• Competition for water, land, energy and
materials will be fierce
• Investments in resource-efficient infrastructure
and renewables must have top priority
• Recycling and reuse will be KEY
• R&D must be aiming at sustainable innovation

47. The Growth Dilemma
• Continued economic growth, as presently
structured, will not be possible from the point of
climate, ecosystems, resource constraints and
planetary boundaries
• De-growth is not possible from the point of view
of the economy, the financial system and social
stability
• Few politicians want to discuss this dilemma
• The challenge can only be addressed through a
thorough discussion in society and a transition to
a more sustainable model

48. Major shortcomings in conventional
economic policy framework
• Natural capital is not accounted for
• GDP growth confused with increase in welfare
• Resources are treated as if easy to substitute
• Non-linear systems don´t fit in linear economic models
• Positive discounting downplays costs in the future
• Externalities not accounted for + Perverse Subsidies
• Financial system by and large ignores of climate risks
• Income gaps widen dramatically
• Unemployment not proactively addressed

49. • The Financial system increasingly
resembles a gigantic Ponzi
Scheme; many people getting rich
by depleting natural stocks and
destabilizing climate or by
creating bubbles – and selling out
before the bubbles burst

50. The financial sector expansion
• In 1980 global financial assets represented 109 %
of world GDP
• In 2006 the ratio was 346 %
• “Bubbles” should surprise no-one
• House market in the US is still almost 40 %
below 2007 level
• In 1980 salary for CEO in finance was equal with
industry average; today > 4 times higher
• In 2007 finance sector made up 40 % of US
private sector profits! In 1970´s around 6%
• Too high debt ratios in too many countries

51. Financial sector and sustainability
• Short term dominates; Quarterly reporting,
compensation systems extremely short term
• Rapid credit expansion – controlled by the
financial sector, not gvts, means future is
mortgaged
• Unsustainable investments proliferate and the
consequences are negative as regards climate
change, ecosystem overuse and resource depletion
• Money pouring into tar sands in Canada and shale
oil in the US; whereas money for renewables is
tough to obtain
• What about our Pension Funds?

52. Financial sector ignoring the risks
• The valuation of fossil companies is related to the reserves reported
• The largest companies report much larger fossil reserves than can be used
to stay within 2° degrees - 745 billion tons CO2 vs 565 billion tons
• These companies < ¼ of estimated fossil reserves, most of which are
owned by state-owned companies
• The valuation shows a huge discrepancy between science and the way
markets work
• Markets appear to believe that a)climate change is a hoax, b) there will be
no international climate agreement or c) CCS will solve the problem
• If CCS is the solution, WHY are investments at a record low?
• True, there is no global price on Carbon. But the risks are there. Besides:
Ethics?

53. Lovande tecken
• Världen kan klara sig på sol, vatten och vind
• Kostnaderna för solenergi faller drastiskt
• Investeringarna i förnybar el > fossilbaserad el
• Utvecklingen av passivhus; Bygga i trä
• Utvecklingen av superlätta o energisnåla fordon
• Nya material ersätter bomull
• Digitaliseringen
• Factor 5
• Biomimicry – lär av naturen
• From cradle to cradle
• Men det går för långsamt och systemet i stort ger inte
rätt incitament

54. How to move forward?
• We need a vision for a sustainable society
• How much is lagom?
• Analyze carefully the necessary transition
• Apply a system´s approach
• Merge the agendas of finance, economy,
employment, climate change, pollution
and resource depletion and constraints
• The financial crisis is not about money
alone – it is as much about natural
resources

55. A old/new economic paradigm

56. Strategy for Sustainability
• Stop having Economic Growth as main target ! Focus on
specific welfare goals instead.
• Priority to transdisciplinary science and education
• Education of economists a major challenge
• Strengthen Global Governance – start w EU+Asia?
• Merge poverty reduction w climate and ecosystem
protection
• Reform economic and finance policy frameworks
• Public Procurement proactive role in transformation
• Land use critical – both forests and agriculture
• Stabilise population
• Bring in behavioral sciences; facts alone will not help

57. Strategy for Sustainability II
• Rethink Economics:
- Take Nature into Account
- New indicators for welfare and well-being
- Promote Circular Economy
- Binding targets for energy and resource efficiency
- Raising taxes on use of virgin materials/ reducing
taxes on labor
- New Business models for performance
- Finance sector reform; start by taking climate and
environment risks seriously
-

58. Strategy for Sustainability III
• The world needs a binding climate agreement – to
evolve into agreement for Sustainability
• In the absence we need a Plan B – that gives
priority as well to energy security
- Multiply support for Energy R&D
- Multiply investments in renewables
- Binding goal for energy efficiency
- Global Feed-in Tariff for Renewables
- Remove perverse subsidies

59. Strategy for Sustainability IV
• Crash Programme for Sustainable Innovation:
- From Cradle to Cradle – closed material
loops; ”Nature does not have a design
problem – Humans do”
- Biomimicry
- Use ICT for transformative change
- Functional services / Extend wealth
- Multiply financial support for Energy R&D

60. ”De-coupling” – a challenge
• Ever since Bruntland Report ”de-coupling” has
been seen as THE SOLUTION to address
environment and resource constraints
• Relative de-coupling is happening – but absolute
de-coupling is far away
• Efficiency gains normally eaten up by continued
economic growth and the rebound effect
• Efficiency is crucial but must be achieved within
a differently organized economy, i e by doing the
right things

61. Move towards a circular/cyclic
economy
• Products are designed to last longer
• Reuse, recycling and reconditioning of materilas main objective
• Will require local service economy for maintenance and repair =
more jobs
• Will require new business models focusing on HQ service and
performance
• Can be promoted by tax reform; raising taxes on use of virgin
materials while lowering taxes on labour
• A circular economy will mean less pressure on resources – both
finite and renewables
• In addition it will lead to significantly lower GHG emissions (
Research by SEI, York and others)
• The EU Commission Roadmap for a Resource-Efficient Europe!

62. Functional sales do happen in B2B
• Rolls Royce leases jet engines
• Interface leases carpets
• Michelin leases tyres for trucks
• Xerox offers copying services
Resource and energy use + CO2 emissions have decreased
significantly. The companies have benefitted financially.
Now is time to move into the area of B2C – cars, appliances,
electronic equipment, kitchens, furniture, textiles etc

68. Labour productivity has increased twentyfold
since 1850. It is not utopian to think of
resource productivity increasing tenfold in 100
years and fivefold in 50 years!
For that to happen, policy frameworks must
change and Business Models undergo
significant change, giving real priority to
alternative energy as well as energy and
resource efficicency

69. Ytterst en existentiell fråga
• Vår mission är att sprida kunskap om riskerna med hopp om
att förändra
• Prevention is better than Cure
• Klarar vi som kollektiv att ta ansvar på lång sikt – utan än
tydligare kriser?
• De rika ländernas ansvar är fundamentalt, men det talar vi tyst
om
• När insikterna ökar borde intresset öka för att tänka om: Men
långt mer än fakta behövs
• Djupliggande kulturella, psykologiska och sociologiska
spärrar
• Medias förändrade roll en utmaning – ”infotainment”
• Både politiken och ekonomin kortsiktiga
• Politikens renässans?
• Det tog lång tid att utveckla demokratin eller avskaffa
slaveriet…..