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Evaluating Your Idea
   you do vet them don’t you??
Demand         First Experience


Construction                         Value Capture


         Distribution       Positioning
Demand         First Experience


Construction    Risks                Value Capture


         Distribution       Positioning
Common Mistakes
I’ve made all of these once, twice, three, four times...
Mistake #1

People want it
Mistake #2

Lots of people want it
Mistake #3

It’s easy to explain
Mistake #4

I built it, they will come
Mistake #5

It’s obvious how to use it
Mistake #6


They’ll remember to use it
Oh god, I’m doomed.
      well, not quite..
As with most things,
start w/ a framework!
  Just so happens I’ve got a few for you!
#1 Business Hypothesis
       Specify your dream
Day     Month   Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      No.




Who are our Key Partners?                                           What Key Activities do our Value Propositions require?   What value do we deliver to the customer?                                             What type of relationship does each of our Customer                                                        For whom are we creating value?
Who are our key suppliers?                                          Our Distribution Channels?                               Which one of our customer’s problems are we helping to solve?                         Segments expect us to establish and maintain with them?                                                    Who are our most important customers?
Which Key Resources are we acquiring from partners?                 Customer Relationships?                                  What bundles of products and services are we offering to each Customer Segment?       Which ones have we established?
Which Key Activities do partners perform?                           Revenue streams?                                         Which customer needs are we satisfying?                                               How are they integrated with the rest of our business model?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   How costly are they?




                                                                    What Key Resources do our Value Propositions require?                                                                                          Through which Channels do our Customer Segments
                                                                    Our Distribution Channels? Customer Relationships?                                                                                             want to be reached?
                                                                    Revenue Streams?                                                                                                                               How are we reaching them now?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   How are our Channels integrated?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Which ones work best?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Which ones are most cost-efficient?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   How are we integrating them with customer routines?




What are the most important costs inherent in our business model?                                                                                                       For what value are our customers really willing to pay?
Which Key Resources are most expensive?                                                                                                                                 For what do they currently pay?
Which Key Activities are most expensive?                                                                                                                                How are they currently paying?
                                                                                                                                                                        How would they prefer to pay?
                                                                                                                                                                        How much does each Revenue Stream contribute to overall revenues?




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.
#2 Enumerate Risks
What should you be worried about... in order!
Validation Board
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Project Name:                                                Team Leader Name:
   Solas Bar
   232 E. 9th Street




 Track Pivots                         Start                                             1st Pivot                                               2nd Pivot                                                       3rd Pivot                                                        4th Pivot

                                  Tip: For two-sided markets,
  Customer                        always validate the riskier side first

  Hypothesis


                                                                                        Remember:
  Problem                                                                               Limit one sticky-note per box
                                                                                        Write in ALL CAPS
  Hypothesis                                                                            Do not write more than 5 words on any sticky-note




  Solution                       Tip: Do NOT define a solution
                                 until you’ve validated the problem
  Hypothesis



 Design Experiment
 Track Pivots                                                                                             Riskiest                                Results                            Invalidated                          If Invalidated, pivot at least
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          one Core Hypothesis                       Validated                           If Validated, brainstorm and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        test the next Riskiet Assumption
 Tip: Clear all post-its from this area after each experiment is completed                                Assumption
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1                                     2                                       1                                     2

                                                                                                                                                                                     Only put the Riskiest
                                                                                                                                                                                     Assumption from an


                                                                                                                                                    GET
                                                                                                                                                                                     experiment in these boxes

                                                                                                         Which Core Assumption has the                                               Record data &



                                                                                                                                                    OUT
                                                                                                         highest level of uncertainty?                                               learnings separately


                                                                                                          Method                                                                                                     3                                     4                                       3                                     4
                        Core Assumptions
                         Any assumption that, if invalidated, will break the business                                                            OF THE
                                                                                                         What is the lowest cost way to
                                                                                                         test the Riskiest Assumption?

                                                                                                         Choose: Exploration,
                                                                                                                                                BLDG
                                                                                                         Pitch, or Concierge


                                                                                                          Minimum                                                                                                    5                                     6                                       5                                     6
                                                                                                          Success
                                                                                                          Criterion

                                                                                                         What is the weakest outcome
                                                                                                         we will accept as validation?


www.ValidationBoard.com                                                                                                             © 2012 Lean Startup Machine. You are free to use it and earn money with it as an entrepreneur, consultant, or executive, as long as you are not a software company (the latter need to license it from us).




                                                                                                                                                                        This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
Typically, worry and
               build outside-in
Where will   What ad will    What value
people find   pique their    do I need to
   me?        interest?     sell them on?




                              Can they get     Do I maintain
                                                               Have I earned
                             that value fast      a good
                                                                their dollar?
                              as possible?     relationship?
Resources
Business Canvas Plan: www.businessmodelgeneration.com
    Lean Validation Board: www.validationboard.com

                    Reading List
              Lean Startups by Eric Ries
        4 Steps to the Epiphany by Steve Blank

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How to Evaluate Your Startup Idea

  • 1. Evaluating Your Idea you do vet them don’t you??
  • 2. Demand First Experience Construction Value Capture Distribution Positioning
  • 3. Demand First Experience Construction Risks Value Capture Distribution Positioning
  • 4. Common Mistakes I’ve made all of these once, twice, three, four times...
  • 6. Mistake #2 Lots of people want it
  • 8. Mistake #4 I built it, they will come
  • 11. Oh god, I’m doomed. well, not quite..
  • 12. As with most things, start w/ a framework! Just so happens I’ve got a few for you!
  • 13. #1 Business Hypothesis Specify your dream
  • 14. Day Month Year No. Who are our Key Partners? What Key Activities do our Value Propositions require? What value do we deliver to the customer? What type of relationship does each of our Customer For whom are we creating value? Who are our key suppliers? Our Distribution Channels? Which one of our customer’s problems are we helping to solve? Segments expect us to establish and maintain with them? Who are our most important customers? Which Key Resources are we acquiring from partners? Customer Relationships? What bundles of products and services are we offering to each Customer Segment? Which ones have we established? Which Key Activities do partners perform? Revenue streams? Which customer needs are we satisfying? How are they integrated with the rest of our business model? How costly are they? What Key Resources do our Value Propositions require? Through which Channels do our Customer Segments Our Distribution Channels? Customer Relationships? want to be reached? Revenue Streams? How are we reaching them now? How are our Channels integrated? Which ones work best? Which ones are most cost-efficient? How are we integrating them with customer routines? What are the most important costs inherent in our business model? For what value are our customers really willing to pay? Which Key Resources are most expensive? For what do they currently pay? Which Key Activities are most expensive? How are they currently paying? How would they prefer to pay? How much does each Revenue Stream contribute to overall revenues? This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.
  • 15. #2 Enumerate Risks What should you be worried about... in order!
  • 16. Validation Board Project Name: Team Leader Name: Solas Bar 232 E. 9th Street Track Pivots Start 1st Pivot 2nd Pivot 3rd Pivot 4th Pivot Tip: For two-sided markets, Customer always validate the riskier side first Hypothesis Remember: Problem Limit one sticky-note per box Write in ALL CAPS Hypothesis Do not write more than 5 words on any sticky-note Solution Tip: Do NOT define a solution until you’ve validated the problem Hypothesis Design Experiment Track Pivots Riskiest Results Invalidated If Invalidated, pivot at least one Core Hypothesis Validated If Validated, brainstorm and test the next Riskiet Assumption Tip: Clear all post-its from this area after each experiment is completed Assumption 1 2 1 2 Only put the Riskiest Assumption from an GET experiment in these boxes Which Core Assumption has the Record data & OUT highest level of uncertainty? learnings separately Method 3 4 3 4 Core Assumptions Any assumption that, if invalidated, will break the business OF THE What is the lowest cost way to test the Riskiest Assumption? Choose: Exploration, BLDG Pitch, or Concierge Minimum 5 6 5 6 Success Criterion What is the weakest outcome we will accept as validation? www.ValidationBoard.com © 2012 Lean Startup Machine. You are free to use it and earn money with it as an entrepreneur, consultant, or executive, as long as you are not a software company (the latter need to license it from us). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
  • 17. Typically, worry and build outside-in Where will What ad will What value people find pique their do I need to me? interest? sell them on? Can they get Do I maintain Have I earned that value fast a good their dollar? as possible? relationship?
  • 18. Resources Business Canvas Plan: www.businessmodelgeneration.com Lean Validation Board: www.validationboard.com Reading List Lean Startups by Eric Ries 4 Steps to the Epiphany by Steve Blank