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In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenia n Dram Overvalued?
- 1. In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenian Dram Overvalued? Nienke Oomes IMF Resident Representative in Armenia www.imf.org/yerevan with Gohar Minasyan & Ara Stepanyan
- 6. Real and nominal exchange rate
- 10. Armenian prices are about 2/3 of U.S. prices
- 11. As productivity grows, actual XRs approach PPP XRs (real appreciation)
- 12. PPP approach: actual exchange rate appreciated faster than equilibrium exchange rate
- 13. PPP approach: 30% overvaluation in 2008
- 18. BEER results: Equilibrium REER depreciated in 2008Q4, while actual REER appreciated…
- 19. ...implying about 20 percent overvaluation at the end of 2008
- 21. Nevertheless, the CBA’s BEER approach yields similar results
- 26. ES Approach: estimated overvaluation