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Environmental Evaluation in the Age  of an Uncertain Climate Prepared for:  Environmental Evaluators’ Networking Forum Prepared by: Diana Lane and Chuck Herrick Stratus Consulting Boulder, CO and Washington, DC June 13, 2008
Why do evaluators need to think about climate change? (Isn’t that someone else’s job?) Source: IPCC, 2007, as presented by NASA Earth Observatory.
Ability to project regional impacts has increased greatly in the last 10 years ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What climate change impacts should you worry about? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What climate change impacts should you worry about (cont.)? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example: Trends in Midpoint of Yearly Streamflow, 1948 - 2002 (Center of Mass) Source: Stewart et al., 2005, Figure 2b.
Example of insect outbreaks in just 10 years in Colorado ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
 
 
Where do you find reliable information about regional climate impacts? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Questions evaluators should address when thinking about climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example – Conceptual model for construction of fish passage structure Fish are near thermal tolerance; habitat not suitable without increased shading Goal of 50% increase not realistic because  of increased stress
Example: Water-banking in  the Southwest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example: Water-banking in the Southwest (cont.) ,[object Object]
Example: Water-banking in the Southwest (cont.) ,[object Object]
Example: Coastal marsh protection along the mid-Atlantic coast ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example: Coastal marsh protection along the mid-Atlantic coast ,[object Object],Projected habitat in 2195 – 1.4 m total sea-level rise and coastal protection
Example: Coastal marsh protection along the mid-Atlantic coast ,[object Object],Projected habitat in 2195 – 1.4 m total sea-level rise; no coastal protection
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Lane Herrick Friday

  • 1. Environmental Evaluation in the Age of an Uncertain Climate Prepared for: Environmental Evaluators’ Networking Forum Prepared by: Diana Lane and Chuck Herrick Stratus Consulting Boulder, CO and Washington, DC June 13, 2008
  • 2. Why do evaluators need to think about climate change? (Isn’t that someone else’s job?) Source: IPCC, 2007, as presented by NASA Earth Observatory.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Example: Trends in Midpoint of Yearly Streamflow, 1948 - 2002 (Center of Mass) Source: Stewart et al., 2005, Figure 2b.
  • 7.
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.  
  • 11.  
  • 12.  
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Example – Conceptual model for construction of fish passage structure Fish are near thermal tolerance; habitat not suitable without increased shading Goal of 50% increase not realistic because of increased stress
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.