The document summarizes a study comparing actual search volume data for 50 keywords against estimates from Google Keyword Tool, Wordtracker, and SEOBook. The study found that on average, the estimation tools were inaccurate compared to actual data, with Wordtracker being the most accurate and Google the least accurate. Excluding low search volume keywords from the analysis improved the correlation between estimated and actual data. The study concluded that keyword estimations alone are unreliable and better results require using existing real-world traffic data.

1. Stormy Weather The Accuracy of Search Volume Estimation and Forecasting Graeme Benstead-Hume @mrgraeme

6. Actual results vs. Google Keyword Tool data

8. Actual results vs. Wordtracker data

10. Actual Results vs. SEOBook data

13. Correlations between the tools Correlation between tools Google – Wordtracker 0.73 Word Tracker – SEOBook 0.97 SEOBook - Google 0.63

14. How to fiddle with the results We were hoping for more consistent results… Especially if we were going to be presenting our finding in front of 600 clever SEO types… So we got to fiddling…

16. Getting rid of the data we didn’t like Estimations for keywords below ~50 search volume a month seem least accurate I.e. Our estimation tools do not perform so well with long-tail terms

20. Thank you! @mrgraeme Presentation available at sitevisibility.co.uk/blog