GMIC 2012 - Megatrends, Vision Mobile, Presentation by Mr Andreas Constantinou

how telecoms business is transforming in the software era Updated 4 May 2012
how telecoms business is transforming in the software era Updated 4 May 2012
Copyright VisionMobile 2012

VisionMobile
Distilling market noise into market sense
Research Workshops Market maps Strategy definition
competitive analysis, mobile industry dynamics Competitive landscape maps strategy design, ecosystem
commissioned research for telcos and OEMs positioning, product
definition

Developer
Economics 2011:
How developers and
brands are making
money in the mobile
app economy

Mobile Innovation Mobile Industry Atlas, 5th ed. Mobile Megatrends series
Clash of Economics 1,700+ companies, 90 market sectors Following and analysing major
ecosystems how Internet business models are trends in mobile
mobile platforms and impacting telecoms and how to
the battle for innovate in the age of software
dominance

HTML5
and its impact to the
mobile industry Top-100 analyst blog
4,000+ subscribers
The Android Game Plan 100 million club 20,000+ monthly uniques
the commercial mechanics tracking successful businesses 90% mobile industry insiders
behind Android and how in mobile
Google runs the show

3 Copyright VisionMobile 2012

Trusted by industry brands
Clients

selected
VisionMobile clients
2008-2011


Mobile Megatrends 2012

Handset DELL-ification Web as the new walled garden Cross-platform tools
and the emerging pyramid of handset OEM and why web is waiting for a new leader the next challenge to the Apple/Google
duopoly

The Kindelization of Ecosystems battle across Accessories the next frontier for
tablets how Kindle is setting the 4 screens Experience roaming drives platform differentiation
rules of the tablet market user lock-in, cross-sales and engagement

Tools for gold seekers Reinventing the telco The future of voice
The developer gold-rush has led to a gold rush for Unbundling the telco to compete in the From telephony to diversity of use cases
developer tools software era

Handset DELL-ification
and the emerging pyramid of handset OEMs


The complex picture of the mobile phone market
But mobile phone market share doesn’t tell the full story

Source: VisionMobile


Android became dominant smartphone OS
Samsung and HTC benefited the most from Android success (Q4 2011)

Smartphone market share by OEM and platform (H2 2011)


Android turned the tables on handset makers
Samsung and HTC benefited, Nokia, Motorola, Sony were challenged

Beneficiaries: Under pressure:
fast-moving challengers old guard OEMs
Efficient cost structure plus ability to differentiate Cost structure requiring high-margins
in software, hardware or both Commoditising effect of Android makes high-
margins unattainable for OEM without own
ecosystem or meaningful differentiation

low cost assemblers
Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins
Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach

No Name source: VisionMobile


Profits are monopolized by companies
with a tailored value-chain
Commodity
modular
market

Integrated
from cloud
to silicon

Integrated
across
handset
BoM

Share of profits across top-8 handset vendors. Source: Asymco, VisionMobile estimates


Tailored value chain leads to hyper growth
Healthy profits allows to invest more in innovation, product development and marketing

Estimates

2 players
dominate
smartphone
shipments

10 OEMs with
more than 2%
market share


DELL-ification and the new roles of OEMs
The pyramid structure of OEMs in 2012

Profit pyramid
Revenue pyramid

Innovators
exceptional margins unique Role model:
experiences

meaningful Fast followers
attractive margins
differentiation Role model:

low margins Assemblers
compete on price only Role model:

low margins
Feature phones
nearly 60% of sales Role model:
compete on price only


Redrawing the map of handset competition
2005 - 2012

Profit pyramid
Revenue pyramid

exceptional margins unique
experiences

attractive margins meaningful
differentiation

low margins
compete on price only

60% of sales
low margins compete on price only


HTML5: Web as the new walled garden
and why the web is waiting for a new leader


HTML5 is pitched as the future of mobile apps


…but what is HTML5, really?

A set of browser specs by 2 standard groups: W3C and WHAT
WHAT WG - Web Hypertext Application Technologies
The WHAT working group specs merge into W3C specs

Brings capabilities of web apps closer to those of native apps
UI tools, off-line storage, 2D graphics, plugin-free video/audio
geo location, speed and communication


Many benefactors, but no clear leader
all pushing and hyping HTML5 for their own unrelated reasons

Apple looking to move the web away from Flash

Google searching for more ways to commoditize complements

Facebook aiming to break-down Apple/Google silos and distance Adobe

Microsoft to onboard web developers onto Windows 8

Mobile operators hoping to regain control lost to native platforms

Qualcomm aiming to create a competitive advantage for its chips

Brands looking use web as a low-cost way to go cross-device and cross-screen

Adobe aiming to sell tools that facilitate web-to-native hybrid apps


But HTML5 is just past the peak of expectations

Fragmentation across platforms (iOS, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Phone)
Challenged to compete with native user experience
Lack of distribution channels and monetisation for web apps

HTML5 is fragmented across platforms

HTML5 Test Score
iOS 5.1 324
BlackBerry OS 7 273
Android 4.0 273
Bada 2.0 268
Android 3.2 235
Android 2.3 189
Amazon Silk 1.0 174
Windows Phone 7.5 (Mango) 138

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Source: html5test.com, April 2012.


Andrew Betts of Assanka on app.ft.com: It
took a full-time team of 3 developers at
Assanka 8 months to launch on iPad, and
that team a further 4 months to bug-fix the
iPad and ready for distribution to Android
tables.

October 2011
http://www.tomhume.org/


HTML5 is a technology lacking key ingredients
unable to compete with iOS and Android platforms

Platform ingredients

Software Developer
Monetisation Distribution Retailing
foundations ecosystem

HTML5 ✔

= ✖

✖

✖

fragmented platform
always a step behind native will depend on app store

complex tool-chain waiting for a leader
islands of developers Facebook? Google? Other ?
using common language,
but different API sets


Google & FB are building complete platforms 
adding missing ingredients on top of HTML5 enabling technology

Key Software Developer
ingredients Monetisation Distribution Retailing
foundations ecosystem

application runtime, Developers building micropayments, app distribution app discovery,
developer tool-chain, and publishing apps ad networks to end users promotion,
& platform APIs around the and settlement through SaaS or placement, search &
software foundation devices recommendations

HTML5 browsers Fragmented --- --- ---
(fragmentation)

HTML5 with web developers Google Checkout PC, Mac, Android, Chrome
Chrome API Chrome OS Web Store

HTML5 with Web and Flash FB Credits 900M Facebook FB app
Facebook APIs developers users recommendations

HTML5 may end up a yet another walled garden
despite the promise of openness

get in touch
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.

andreas@visionmobile.com
@andreascon
Andreas Constantinou | Managing Director | +44 2033 844 163

Updated: 12 November 2010


GMIC 2012 - Megatrends, Vision Mobile, Presentation by Mr Andreas Constantinou

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GMIC 2012 - Megatrends, Vision Mobile, Presentation by Mr Andreas Constantinou