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Climate	
  Change	
  
Reality	
  Check	
  
©	
  Daniel	
  Beltra	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
 
	
  
	
  
How	
  bad	
  is	
  climate	
  change	
  by	
  now?	
  	
  
How	
  bad	
  can	
  it	
  get?	
  	
  
What	
  can	
  we	
  do	
  about	
  it?	
  	
  
	
  
Here’s	
  the	
  story	
  in	
  short.*	
  
	
  
	
  
*	
  =	
  The	
  findings	
  are	
  derived	
  mainly	
  from	
  the	
  FiIh	
  Assessment	
  Report	
  of	
  the	
  
	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  Intergovernmental	
  Panel	
  on	
  Climate	
  Change	
  (IPCC),	
  complemented	
  with	
  some	
  other	
  recent	
  studies.
	
  
Storm	
  near	
  Fort	
  Dodge,	
  Iowa,	
  USA.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Daniel	
  Beltrá	
  
Climate	
  change,	
  caused	
  by	
  our	
  greenhouse	
  gas	
  polluSon,	
  is	
  
already	
  widespread.	
  Impacts	
  can	
  be	
  detected	
  on	
  all	
  
conSnents	
  and	
  across	
  the	
  ocean.	
  (IPCC,	
  2013)	
  
Glacier	
  Pio	
  XI,	
  Patagonia.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Daniel	
  Beltrá	
  
“The	
  atmosphere	
  and	
  ocean	
  have	
  warmed,	
  the	
  
amounts	
  of	
  snow	
  and	
  ice	
  have	
  diminished,	
  	
  
sea	
  level	
  has	
  risen,	
  and	
  the	
  concentraSons	
  of	
  
greenhouse	
  gases	
  have	
  increased.”	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  (IPCC,	
  2013)	
  
Hurricane	
  Sandy	
  AIermath	
  in	
  New	
  Jersey.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Tim	
  Aubry	
  
Oceans	
  have	
  absorbed	
  more	
  than	
  90%	
  of	
  the	
  heat	
  
accumulaSng	
  in	
  the	
  atmosphere,	
  driving	
  species	
  towards	
  
cooler	
  waters.	
  CO2	
  is	
  now	
  causing	
  oceans	
  to	
  acidify	
  at	
  a	
  rate	
  
that	
  is	
  likely	
  the	
  fastest	
  in	
  300	
  million	
  years,	
  posing	
  a	
  serious	
  
threat	
  to	
  marine	
  life.	
  (IPCC,	
  2013;	
  WMO	
  2014)	
  
"The	
  combina-on	
  of	
  acidifica-on,	
  warming	
  and	
  deoxygena-on	
  that	
  we	
  are	
  seeing	
  -­‐	
  the	
  so-­‐called	
  'deadly	
  trio'	
  is	
  
unprecedented	
  in	
  the	
  carbon	
  record.	
  It	
  poses	
  a	
  serious	
  threat	
  not	
  just	
  to	
  the	
  ocean	
  but	
  to	
  the	
  Earth	
  system	
  services	
  it	
  
supports	
  and	
  there	
  can	
  be	
  no	
  stronger	
  impera-ve	
  for	
  ac-on	
  by	
  governments	
  and	
  others	
  to	
  reduce	
  greenhouse	
  gas	
  
emissions	
  to	
  the	
  lowest	
  possible	
  levels	
  in	
  the	
  shortest	
  amount	
  of	
  -me".	
  	
  
Alex	
  Rogers,	
  IPSO	
  ScienSfic	
  Director	
  and	
  Professor	
  of	
  ConservaSon	
  Biology,	
  University	
  of	
  Oxford	
  
Alacranes	
  Reef,	
  Mexico.	
  ©	
  Luis	
  Sandoval	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
Species	
  have	
  shiIed	
  their	
  geographic	
  ranges,	
  seasonal	
  
acSviSes,	
  migraSon	
  paeerns	
  and	
  abundances.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
(IPCC,	
  2013)	
  
	
  Golden	
  Toad	
  ©	
  U.S.	
  Fish	
  and	
  Wildlife	
  Service	
  
NegaSve	
  impacts	
  on	
  crop	
  yields	
  have	
  been	
  more	
  
common	
  than	
  posiSve	
  impacts.	
  Climate	
  extremes	
  in	
  
key	
  producing	
  regions	
  have	
  resulted	
  in	
  periods	
  of	
  
rapid	
  food	
  and	
  cereal	
  price	
  increases.	
  (IPCC,	
  2014)	
  
A	
  rice	
  field	
  destroyed	
  by	
  salt	
  water	
  from	
  huge	
  Sdal	
  surges	
  in	
  Sundarbans,	
  India.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Peter	
  Caton	
  
Since	
  the	
  1950s,	
  many	
  of	
  
the	
  observed	
  changes	
  are	
  
unprecedented	
  
over	
  decades	
  to	
  millennia.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
(IPCC,	
  2013)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
Amazon	
  Drought,	
  October	
  2005.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Daniel	
  Beltrá	
  
There	
  are	
  alarming	
  signs	
  of	
  things	
  gehng	
  rapidly	
  worse.	
  
Cyclone	
  Phailin	
  AIermath	
  in	
  India.	
  ©	
  Peter	
  Caton	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
“The	
  world	
  experienced	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
unprecedented	
  high-­‐impact	
  
climate	
  extremes	
  during	
  the	
  
2001-­‐2010	
  decade”	
  	
  
	
  
(WMO,	
  2013)	
  
Steppe	
  Fire	
  in	
  Russia.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Igor	
  Podgorny	
  
From	
  2002	
  to	
  2011,	
  the	
  Greenland	
  ice	
  
sheet	
  lost	
  ice	
  six	
  9mes	
  faster	
  
on	
  average	
  compared	
  to	
  the	
  decade	
  
that	
  went	
  before	
  it.	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  (IPCC,	
  2013)	
  
Greenland	
  melt	
  lake.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Nick	
  Cobbing	
  
Since	
  1993,	
  on	
  average,	
  sea	
  levels	
  have	
  been	
  rising	
  
nearly	
  twice	
  as	
  fast	
  as	
  during	
  the	
  past	
  century.	
  (IPCC,	
  2013)	
  	
  	
  
BeSo	
  village,	
  KiribaS.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Jeremy	
  Sueon-­‐Hibbert	
  
The	
  ArcSc	
  sea	
  ice	
  extent	
  has	
  been	
  diminishing	
  
significantly	
  faster	
  than	
  projected.	
  (IPCC,	
  2013)	
  
Ice	
  Floe	
  in	
  the	
  ArcSc.	
  ©	
  Daniel	
  Beltrá	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
In	
  May	
  2014	
  NASA-­‐UCI	
  study	
  reported:	
  glaciers	
  in	
  the	
  Amundsen	
  Sea	
  sector	
  of	
  the	
  West	
  AntarcSca	
  
have	
  passed	
  a	
  point	
  of	
  no	
  return.	
  	
  The	
  melSng	
  is	
  now	
  unstoppable	
  and	
  will	
  
eventually	
  cause	
  sea	
  levels	
  to	
  rise	
  by	
  1.2	
  meters.	
  The	
  loss	
  of	
  ice	
  could	
  also	
  trigger	
  the	
  collapse	
  of	
  the	
  
rest	
  of	
  the	
  West	
  AntarcSc	
  ice	
  sheet,	
  which	
  would	
  result	
  in	
  a	
  sea	
  level	
  rise	
  of	
  3	
  to	
  5	
  meters.	
  (NASA)	
  	
  
NOTE!	
  This	
  finding	
  is	
  too	
  fresh	
  to	
  be	
  covered	
  in	
  the	
  IPCC	
  5th	
  Assessment	
  Report.	
  	
  
For	
  more	
  informa-on,	
  see	
  NASA	
  Glaciologist	
  Eric	
  Rignot’s	
  blog	
  here:	
  hPp://goo.gl/LhS0Ql	
  
©	
  Daniel	
  Beltra	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
IT’S	
  US	
  
"It	
  is	
  extremely	
  likely	
  (95%)	
  that	
  human	
  influence	
  has	
  been	
  the	
  dominant	
  
cause	
  of	
  the	
  observed	
  warming	
  since	
  the	
  mid-­‐20th	
  century."	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  (IPCC,	
  2013)	
  
©	
  Simon	
  Lim	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
The	
  atmospheric	
  concentraSons	
  of	
  carbon	
  
dioxide,	
  methane,	
  and	
  nitrous	
  oxide	
  have	
  
increased	
  to	
  levels	
  unprecedented	
  in	
  at	
  
least	
  the	
  last	
  800,000	
  years.	
  	
  (IPCC,	
  2013)	
  
	
  AcSvists	
  protesSng	
  a	
  new	
  coal-­‐fired	
  power	
  plant	
  at	
  the	
  Maasvlakte	
  in	
  Roeerdam.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Joël	
  van	
  Houdt	
  
Most	
  emissions	
  result	
  from	
  the	
  burning	
  of	
  fossil	
  fuels.	
  
From	
  2000	
  to	
  2010	
  emissions	
  grew	
  parScularly	
  fast,	
  
largely	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  increased	
  burning	
  of	
  coal.	
  (IPCC,	
  2014)	
  
Qinhuangdao	
  Coal	
  Port	
  in	
  China.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Liu	
  Feiyue	
  
The	
  rest	
  of	
  emissions	
  are	
  largely	
  caused	
  by	
  
deforestaSon,	
  agriculture	
  and	
  other	
  land-­‐use.	
  
(IPCC,	
  2014)	
  
Farmed	
  land	
  on	
  completely	
  deforested	
  area	
  in	
  the	
  Amazon.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Daniel	
  Beltrá	
  
How	
  bad	
  can	
  it	
  get?	
  
Child	
  on	
  Flooded	
  Street	
  in	
  Porto	
  Velho,	
  Brazil.	
  ©	
  Lunae	
  Parracho	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
How	
  bad	
  it	
  gets	
  is	
  up	
  to	
  us	
  
	
  
Every	
  ton	
  of	
  oil,	
  coal	
  or	
  gas	
  we	
  burn	
  or	
  forest	
  
we	
  destroy	
  is	
  making	
  the	
  situaSon	
  worse.	
  With	
  
conSnued	
  emissions	
  we	
  could	
  witness	
  4-­‐5°C	
  
warming	
  or	
  more	
  by	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  century.	
  
That	
  is	
  mulSple	
  Smes	
  the	
  warming	
  experienced	
  
to	
  date	
  and	
  approaches	
  the	
  difference	
  between	
  
today	
  and	
  the	
  last	
  ice	
  age,	
  happening	
  during	
  
one	
  person’s	
  lifeSme	
  instead	
  of	
  millennia.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
(IPCC,	
  2014;	
  WB	
  2012)	
  
Dukhdev	
  Tikadar,	
  living	
  in	
  Ghoramara	
  island,	
  India,	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  many	
  people	
  affected	
  by	
  sea	
  level	
  rise.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Peter	
  Caton	
  
Further	
  warming	
  threatens	
  the	
  fundamentals	
  of	
  
human	
  security:	
  homes,	
  food,	
  water,	
  income,	
  
health	
  and	
  livelihoods.	
  	
  (IPCC,	
  2014)	
  
AIermath	
  of	
  Typhoon	
  Haiyan	
  in	
  the	
  Philippines.	
  ©	
  MaSmSman	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
war	
  
Indirectly,	
  climate	
  change	
  increases	
  the	
  risk	
  of	
  violent	
  conflicts	
  in	
  the	
  form	
  of	
  civil	
  
war	
  and	
  inter-­‐group	
  violence	
  by	
  amplifying	
  poverty	
  and	
  economic	
  shocks.	
  (IPCC,	
  2014)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Pierre	
  Gleizes	
  
"There	
  is	
  no	
  one	
  on	
  Earth	
  who	
  escapes	
  the	
  
effects	
  of	
  climate	
  change.”	
  (Michael	
  Oppenheimer,	
  IPCC	
  Lead	
  Author)	
  	
  
Moorland, Somerset, UK. ©	
  Adam	
  Gray/SWNS.com	
  
What	
  can	
  we	
  do	
  about	
  it?	
  
Protest	
  at	
  Ministry	
  of	
  Energy	
  in	
  Bangkok.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Vinai	
  Dithajohn	
  
 
	
  
If	
  we	
  act	
  fast	
  to	
  cut	
  emissions,	
  catastrophic	
  and	
  
irreversible	
  impacts	
  can	
  sSll	
  be	
  avoided.	
  	
  
	
  
Warming	
  can	
  sSll	
  be	
  limited	
  to	
  well	
  below	
  2°C	
  by	
  2100.	
  
	
  
SoluSons	
  are	
  more	
  available	
  than	
  ever	
  before.	
  
Rainforest	
  in	
  Tasmania.	
  ©	
  Markus	
  Mauthe	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
In	
  just	
  a	
  few	
  years,	
  renewable	
  energy	
  technologies	
  
have	
  demonstrated	
  substanSal	
  performance	
  
improvements	
  and	
  cost	
  reducSons,	
  and	
  a	
  growing	
  
number	
  of	
  technologies	
  have	
  achieved	
  a	
  level	
  of	
  
maturity	
  to	
  enable	
  deployment	
  at	
  a	
  significant	
  
scale.	
  (IPCC,	
  2014)	
  
	
  
The	
  PS20	
  solar	
  tower	
  plant	
  at	
  Sanlucar	
  la	
  Mayor	
  outside	
  Seville,	
  Spain.	
  ©	
  Markel	
  Redondo	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
“The	
  use	
  of	
  renewable	
  energy	
  is	
  oIen	
  associated	
  
with	
  co-­‐benefits,	
  including	
  the	
  reducSon	
  of	
  air	
  
polluSon,	
  local	
  	
  employment	
  opportuniSes,	
  fewer	
  
severe	
  accidents	
  compared	
  to	
  some	
  other	
  energy	
  
supply	
  technologies,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  improved	
  energy	
  
access	
  and	
  security.”	
  (IPCC,	
  2014)	
  
 
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Recipe	
  for	
  acSon	
  	
  
(IPCC	
  findings	
  made	
  easy)	
  
1.	
  Head	
  for	
  zero	
  emissions,	
  starSng	
  now	
  
•  There	
  is	
  no	
  safe	
  level	
  of	
  greenhouse	
  gas	
  
polluSon.	
  Eventually,	
  emissions	
  must	
  be	
  
brought	
  to	
  zero.	
  
•  First	
  priority	
  is	
  to	
  stop	
  emissions	
  growth	
  
within	
  a	
  few	
  years	
  and	
  get	
  them	
  to	
  a	
  rapidly	
  
declining	
  trend.	
  
•  The	
  costs	
  of	
  acSon	
  will	
  be	
  moderate,	
  while	
  
the	
  costs	
  of	
  inacSon	
  would	
  be	
  unthinkable.	
  
2.	
  Switch	
  from	
  dirty	
  to	
  clean	
  energy	
  
•  ConvenSonal	
  fossil	
  fuel	
  technologies	
  burning	
  coal,	
  oil	
  and	
  
gas,	
  must	
  be	
  phased	
  out	
  in	
  the	
  coming	
  decades	
  and	
  
replaced	
  with	
  zero	
  and	
  low-­‐carbon	
  energy	
  technologies.	
  
•  The	
  vast	
  majority	
  of	
  known	
  fossil	
  fuel	
  reserves	
  must	
  
remain	
  in	
  the	
  ground.	
  
•  Improving	
  energy	
  efficiency	
  in	
  buildings,	
  transport	
  and	
  
industry	
  has	
  big	
  potenSal	
  and	
  comes	
  with	
  many	
  benefits.	
  
•  During	
  the	
  next	
  5	
  to	
  15	
  years,	
  investment	
  trends	
  and	
  
financial	
  flows	
  must	
  be	
  shiIed	
  away	
  from	
  fossil	
  fuel	
  
extracSon	
  and	
  technologies	
  into	
  soluSons.	
  
Offshore	
  wind	
  farm	
  Tuno	
  Knob,	
  Denmark.	
  ©	
  Greenpeace	
  /	
  Kate	
  Davison	
  
“Renewable	
  energy	
  is	
  a	
  real	
  opSon.	
  Half	
  of	
  the	
  
world’s	
  new	
  electricity	
  generaSng	
  capacity	
  in	
  
2012	
  came	
  from	
  renewables.	
  We	
  also	
  have	
  
tremendous	
  opportuniSes	
  to	
  improve	
  energy	
  
efficiency.	
  And	
  we	
  can	
  further	
  reduce	
  
emissions	
  by	
  stopping	
  deforesta9on.”	
  	
  
(IPCC	
  Chairman	
  Rajendra	
  Pachauri	
  at	
  the	
  New	
  York	
  Climate	
  Summit	
  2014)	
  
Wind	
  Farms	
  in	
  Iowa.	
  ©	
  Karuna	
  Ang	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
•  ProtecSng	
  forests	
  is	
  crucial	
  both	
  for	
  reducing	
  
warming	
  and	
  for	
  adapSng	
  to	
  it.	
  	
  
•  Healthy	
  forests	
  and	
  oceans	
  are	
  beeer	
  at	
  coping	
  
with	
  the	
  stress	
  caused	
  by	
  changing	
  climate.	
  
3.	
  Protect	
  forests	
  and	
  oceans	
  to	
  protects	
  ourselves	
  
Tropical	
  Rainforest	
  in	
  Brazil	
  (Itaqui,	
  Parana).	
  ©	
  Markus	
  Mauthe	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
4.	
  Heal	
  our	
  food	
  system	
  
•  Our	
  food	
  system	
  needs	
  to	
  adapt	
  to	
  a	
  changing	
  
climate	
  and	
  limited	
  resources.	
  
•  Ecological	
  farming	
  pracSces	
  help	
  farmers	
  to	
  
increase	
  producSon	
  in	
  a	
  way	
  that	
  protects	
  and	
  
enhances	
  soil,	
  water,	
  and	
  biodiversity	
  and	
  
contributes	
  to	
  greenhouse	
  gas	
  miSgaSon.	
  
Organic	
  Farming	
  in	
  Negros.	
  ©	
  Andri	
  Tambunan	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
5.	
  Face	
  the	
  true	
  scale	
  of	
  climate	
  change	
  
•  We	
  will	
  have	
  to	
  adapt	
  to	
  the	
  changes	
  that	
  we	
  can	
  no	
  longer	
  prevent.	
  
Future	
  risks	
  must	
  be	
  assessed	
  in	
  a	
  realisSc	
  manner.	
  
•  The	
  more	
  fossil	
  fuels	
  we	
  burn	
  and	
  the	
  more	
  forests	
  we	
  destroy,	
  the	
  bigger	
  
and	
  more	
  unpredictable	
  the	
  risks,	
  and	
  the	
  harder	
  they	
  will	
  be	
  to	
  adapt	
  to.	
  
•  At	
  some	
  point,	
  the	
  impacts	
  could	
  become	
  impossible	
  to	
  adapt	
  to.	
  
Child	
  in	
  the	
  Amazon	
  near	
  Santarem.	
  ©	
  Markus	
  Mauthe	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
There’s	
  a	
  beeer,	
  cleaner	
  and	
  safer	
  future	
  that	
  is	
  already	
  
unfolding	
  around	
  the	
  world.	
  But	
  we	
  must	
  speed	
  up	
  the	
  
transiSon	
  away	
  from	
  fossil	
  fuels	
  to	
  clean,	
  renewable	
  energy.	
  
Children	
  in	
  Dharnai	
  Village	
  in	
  India.	
  ©	
  Vivek	
  M.	
  /	
  Greenpeace	
  
Photo	
  by	
  Eduardo	
  Munoz/Reuters	
  
Let’s	
  just	
  
do	
  it!	
  

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Climate change reality check

  • 1. Climate  Change   Reality  Check   ©  Daniel  Beltra  /  Greenpeace  
  • 2.       How  bad  is  climate  change  by  now?     How  bad  can  it  get?     What  can  we  do  about  it?       Here’s  the  story  in  short.*       *  =  The  findings  are  derived  mainly  from  the  FiIh  Assessment  Report  of  the                              Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change  (IPCC),  complemented  with  some  other  recent  studies.   Storm  near  Fort  Dodge,  Iowa,  USA.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Daniel  Beltrá  
  • 3. Climate  change,  caused  by  our  greenhouse  gas  polluSon,  is   already  widespread.  Impacts  can  be  detected  on  all   conSnents  and  across  the  ocean.  (IPCC,  2013)   Glacier  Pio  XI,  Patagonia.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Daniel  Beltrá  
  • 4. “The  atmosphere  and  ocean  have  warmed,  the   amounts  of  snow  and  ice  have  diminished,     sea  level  has  risen,  and  the  concentraSons  of   greenhouse  gases  have  increased.”                                                                                                                                  (IPCC,  2013)   Hurricane  Sandy  AIermath  in  New  Jersey.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Tim  Aubry  
  • 5. Oceans  have  absorbed  more  than  90%  of  the  heat   accumulaSng  in  the  atmosphere,  driving  species  towards   cooler  waters.  CO2  is  now  causing  oceans  to  acidify  at  a  rate   that  is  likely  the  fastest  in  300  million  years,  posing  a  serious   threat  to  marine  life.  (IPCC,  2013;  WMO  2014)   "The  combina-on  of  acidifica-on,  warming  and  deoxygena-on  that  we  are  seeing  -­‐  the  so-­‐called  'deadly  trio'  is   unprecedented  in  the  carbon  record.  It  poses  a  serious  threat  not  just  to  the  ocean  but  to  the  Earth  system  services  it   supports  and  there  can  be  no  stronger  impera-ve  for  ac-on  by  governments  and  others  to  reduce  greenhouse  gas   emissions  to  the  lowest  possible  levels  in  the  shortest  amount  of  -me".     Alex  Rogers,  IPSO  ScienSfic  Director  and  Professor  of  ConservaSon  Biology,  University  of  Oxford   Alacranes  Reef,  Mexico.  ©  Luis  Sandoval  /  Greenpeace  
  • 6. Species  have  shiIed  their  geographic  ranges,  seasonal   acSviSes,  migraSon  paeerns  and  abundances.           (IPCC,  2013)    Golden  Toad  ©  U.S.  Fish  and  Wildlife  Service  
  • 7. NegaSve  impacts  on  crop  yields  have  been  more   common  than  posiSve  impacts.  Climate  extremes  in   key  producing  regions  have  resulted  in  periods  of   rapid  food  and  cereal  price  increases.  (IPCC,  2014)   A  rice  field  destroyed  by  salt  water  from  huge  Sdal  surges  in  Sundarbans,  India.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Peter  Caton  
  • 8. Since  the  1950s,  many  of   the  observed  changes  are   unprecedented   over  decades  to  millennia.                                       (IPCC,  2013)                                                                     Amazon  Drought,  October  2005.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Daniel  Beltrá  
  • 9. There  are  alarming  signs  of  things  gehng  rapidly  worse.   Cyclone  Phailin  AIermath  in  India.  ©  Peter  Caton  /  Greenpeace  
  • 10. “The  world  experienced                                                     unprecedented  high-­‐impact   climate  extremes  during  the   2001-­‐2010  decade”       (WMO,  2013)   Steppe  Fire  in  Russia.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Igor  Podgorny  
  • 11. From  2002  to  2011,  the  Greenland  ice   sheet  lost  ice  six  9mes  faster   on  average  compared  to  the  decade   that  went  before  it.                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (IPCC,  2013)   Greenland  melt  lake.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Nick  Cobbing  
  • 12. Since  1993,  on  average,  sea  levels  have  been  rising   nearly  twice  as  fast  as  during  the  past  century.  (IPCC,  2013)       BeSo  village,  KiribaS.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Jeremy  Sueon-­‐Hibbert  
  • 13. The  ArcSc  sea  ice  extent  has  been  diminishing   significantly  faster  than  projected.  (IPCC,  2013)   Ice  Floe  in  the  ArcSc.  ©  Daniel  Beltrá  /  Greenpeace  
  • 14. In  May  2014  NASA-­‐UCI  study  reported:  glaciers  in  the  Amundsen  Sea  sector  of  the  West  AntarcSca   have  passed  a  point  of  no  return.    The  melSng  is  now  unstoppable  and  will   eventually  cause  sea  levels  to  rise  by  1.2  meters.  The  loss  of  ice  could  also  trigger  the  collapse  of  the   rest  of  the  West  AntarcSc  ice  sheet,  which  would  result  in  a  sea  level  rise  of  3  to  5  meters.  (NASA)     NOTE!  This  finding  is  too  fresh  to  be  covered  in  the  IPCC  5th  Assessment  Report.     For  more  informa-on,  see  NASA  Glaciologist  Eric  Rignot’s  blog  here:  hPp://goo.gl/LhS0Ql   ©  Daniel  Beltra  /  Greenpeace  
  • 16. "It  is  extremely  likely  (95%)  that  human  influence  has  been  the  dominant   cause  of  the  observed  warming  since  the  mid-­‐20th  century."          (IPCC,  2013)   ©  Simon  Lim  /  Greenpeace  
  • 17. The  atmospheric  concentraSons  of  carbon   dioxide,  methane,  and  nitrous  oxide  have   increased  to  levels  unprecedented  in  at   least  the  last  800,000  years.    (IPCC,  2013)    AcSvists  protesSng  a  new  coal-­‐fired  power  plant  at  the  Maasvlakte  in  Roeerdam.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Joël  van  Houdt  
  • 18. Most  emissions  result  from  the  burning  of  fossil  fuels.   From  2000  to  2010  emissions  grew  parScularly  fast,   largely  due  to  the  increased  burning  of  coal.  (IPCC,  2014)   Qinhuangdao  Coal  Port  in  China.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Liu  Feiyue  
  • 19. The  rest  of  emissions  are  largely  caused  by   deforestaSon,  agriculture  and  other  land-­‐use.   (IPCC,  2014)   Farmed  land  on  completely  deforested  area  in  the  Amazon.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Daniel  Beltrá  
  • 20. How  bad  can  it  get?   Child  on  Flooded  Street  in  Porto  Velho,  Brazil.  ©  Lunae  Parracho  /  Greenpeace  
  • 21. How  bad  it  gets  is  up  to  us     Every  ton  of  oil,  coal  or  gas  we  burn  or  forest   we  destroy  is  making  the  situaSon  worse.  With   conSnued  emissions  we  could  witness  4-­‐5°C   warming  or  more  by  the  end  of  the  century.   That  is  mulSple  Smes  the  warming  experienced   to  date  and  approaches  the  difference  between   today  and  the  last  ice  age,  happening  during   one  person’s  lifeSme  instead  of  millennia.                               (IPCC,  2014;  WB  2012)   Dukhdev  Tikadar,  living  in  Ghoramara  island,  India,  is  one  of  the  many  people  affected  by  sea  level  rise.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Peter  Caton  
  • 22. Further  warming  threatens  the  fundamentals  of   human  security:  homes,  food,  water,  income,   health  and  livelihoods.    (IPCC,  2014)   AIermath  of  Typhoon  Haiyan  in  the  Philippines.  ©  MaSmSman  /  Greenpeace  
  • 23. war   Indirectly,  climate  change  increases  the  risk  of  violent  conflicts  in  the  form  of  civil   war  and  inter-­‐group  violence  by  amplifying  poverty  and  economic  shocks.  (IPCC,  2014)                   ©  Greenpeace  /  Pierre  Gleizes  
  • 24. "There  is  no  one  on  Earth  who  escapes  the   effects  of  climate  change.”  (Michael  Oppenheimer,  IPCC  Lead  Author)     Moorland, Somerset, UK. ©  Adam  Gray/SWNS.com  
  • 25. What  can  we  do  about  it?   Protest  at  Ministry  of  Energy  in  Bangkok.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Vinai  Dithajohn  
  • 26.     If  we  act  fast  to  cut  emissions,  catastrophic  and   irreversible  impacts  can  sSll  be  avoided.       Warming  can  sSll  be  limited  to  well  below  2°C  by  2100.     SoluSons  are  more  available  than  ever  before.   Rainforest  in  Tasmania.  ©  Markus  Mauthe  /  Greenpeace  
  • 27. In  just  a  few  years,  renewable  energy  technologies   have  demonstrated  substanSal  performance   improvements  and  cost  reducSons,  and  a  growing   number  of  technologies  have  achieved  a  level  of   maturity  to  enable  deployment  at  a  significant   scale.  (IPCC,  2014)     The  PS20  solar  tower  plant  at  Sanlucar  la  Mayor  outside  Seville,  Spain.  ©  Markel  Redondo  /  Greenpeace  
  • 28. “The  use  of  renewable  energy  is  oIen  associated   with  co-­‐benefits,  including  the  reducSon  of  air   polluSon,  local    employment  opportuniSes,  fewer   severe  accidents  compared  to  some  other  energy   supply  technologies,  as  well  as  improved  energy   access  and  security.”  (IPCC,  2014)  
  • 29.                                                   Recipe  for  acSon     (IPCC  findings  made  easy)  
  • 30. 1.  Head  for  zero  emissions,  starSng  now   •  There  is  no  safe  level  of  greenhouse  gas   polluSon.  Eventually,  emissions  must  be   brought  to  zero.   •  First  priority  is  to  stop  emissions  growth   within  a  few  years  and  get  them  to  a  rapidly   declining  trend.   •  The  costs  of  acSon  will  be  moderate,  while   the  costs  of  inacSon  would  be  unthinkable.  
  • 31. 2.  Switch  from  dirty  to  clean  energy   •  ConvenSonal  fossil  fuel  technologies  burning  coal,  oil  and   gas,  must  be  phased  out  in  the  coming  decades  and   replaced  with  zero  and  low-­‐carbon  energy  technologies.   •  The  vast  majority  of  known  fossil  fuel  reserves  must   remain  in  the  ground.   •  Improving  energy  efficiency  in  buildings,  transport  and   industry  has  big  potenSal  and  comes  with  many  benefits.   •  During  the  next  5  to  15  years,  investment  trends  and   financial  flows  must  be  shiIed  away  from  fossil  fuel   extracSon  and  technologies  into  soluSons.   Offshore  wind  farm  Tuno  Knob,  Denmark.  ©  Greenpeace  /  Kate  Davison  
  • 32. “Renewable  energy  is  a  real  opSon.  Half  of  the   world’s  new  electricity  generaSng  capacity  in   2012  came  from  renewables.  We  also  have   tremendous  opportuniSes  to  improve  energy   efficiency.  And  we  can  further  reduce   emissions  by  stopping  deforesta9on.”     (IPCC  Chairman  Rajendra  Pachauri  at  the  New  York  Climate  Summit  2014)   Wind  Farms  in  Iowa.  ©  Karuna  Ang  /  Greenpeace  
  • 33. •  ProtecSng  forests  is  crucial  both  for  reducing   warming  and  for  adapSng  to  it.     •  Healthy  forests  and  oceans  are  beeer  at  coping   with  the  stress  caused  by  changing  climate.   3.  Protect  forests  and  oceans  to  protects  ourselves   Tropical  Rainforest  in  Brazil  (Itaqui,  Parana).  ©  Markus  Mauthe  /  Greenpeace  
  • 34. 4.  Heal  our  food  system   •  Our  food  system  needs  to  adapt  to  a  changing   climate  and  limited  resources.   •  Ecological  farming  pracSces  help  farmers  to   increase  producSon  in  a  way  that  protects  and   enhances  soil,  water,  and  biodiversity  and   contributes  to  greenhouse  gas  miSgaSon.   Organic  Farming  in  Negros.  ©  Andri  Tambunan  /  Greenpeace  
  • 35. 5.  Face  the  true  scale  of  climate  change   •  We  will  have  to  adapt  to  the  changes  that  we  can  no  longer  prevent.   Future  risks  must  be  assessed  in  a  realisSc  manner.   •  The  more  fossil  fuels  we  burn  and  the  more  forests  we  destroy,  the  bigger   and  more  unpredictable  the  risks,  and  the  harder  they  will  be  to  adapt  to.   •  At  some  point,  the  impacts  could  become  impossible  to  adapt  to.   Child  in  the  Amazon  near  Santarem.  ©  Markus  Mauthe  /  Greenpeace  
  • 36. There’s  a  beeer,  cleaner  and  safer  future  that  is  already   unfolding  around  the  world.  But  we  must  speed  up  the   transiSon  away  from  fossil  fuels  to  clean,  renewable  energy.   Children  in  Dharnai  Village  in  India.  ©  Vivek  M.  /  Greenpeace  
  • 37. Photo  by  Eduardo  Munoz/Reuters   Let’s  just   do  it!  

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Jeremy Sutton