State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland

The State of
Mobile Technology
by Jason Grigsby

Flickr: Uploaded February 11, 2007 by hawridger

Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userﬁrstweb.com • http://mobileportland.com
Twitter: @grigs • jason@cloudfour.com

3.3
Billion
Mobile phone for
half the planet.

Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

3.3 Billion in Perspective

Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion

Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion

•Box Ofﬁce
•DVD Sales & Rentals
Combined •Music Industry
•Video Games

200 billion for data services in 2008
(SMS accounts for 130B)

•Box Ofﬁce
•DVD Sales & Rentals
Combined •Music Industry
•Video Games

Mobile Phone Adoption Still Growing

• China Mobile has 317 million subscribers—more than U.S. population.

• China total market is half a billion users. They are adding 6 million
subscribers per month.

• 28% of mobile phone owners have two or more subscriptions.

• Average for industrialized countries is over 100% subscriber rate, led
by 140% subscriber rate for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy and Israel.
(U.S. is at a paltry 80%)

• Percentage of younger phone users increasing. Normal for children
under 10 years old to have a phone in Europe and Asia.

• Population grows by 3 people a second. 38 mobile devices a second.

The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html

Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/

“I’m not sure we can
call it a wave.
Tsunami?”

— Eric Peterson, Leading Web
Analytics Author & Consultant

Flickr photo by look4u: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/look4u/279668622/

It's the recreation of the

Internet, it's the recreation of

the PC story and it is before us

— and it is very likely it will

happen in the next year.

Eric Schmidt, Google CEO speaking at Davos, January 2008

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.

Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.
(for 15 years)

Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

“The Mother of
all Markets.”

Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk
CEO, 2008

John Sculley, Apple
CEO, 1992

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260

Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone

Flickr photo by: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/

U.S. Mobile Browser Share

Source: NetApplications, August 2008
Graphic courtesy Raven Zachary, http://raven.me

“It’s about usage. Not units”

• Number of queries on Google search from iPhones surpassed those
from Symbian-based phones in the days after Christmas. Nokia’s
Symbian-based phones are 40% of the market worldwide.

• German iPhone users consume 30 times more data.

• 95% of iPhone customers regularly surf the Internet. Data services
revenue increased from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $6.9 billion in 2007.

• Google sees 50 times the number of searches using the iPhone than
any other mobile device. They were so surprised, they asked their
engineers to check the logs to make sure it was correct.

• This is why major companies, Google, Quicken, etc. are all launching
iPhone-optimized services despite the iPhone’s 1% market share.

Adoption of Internet

• In 1994, best estimates were 20 to 30 million people on the Internet.
That is less that 1% of the world’s population at the time.

• In 2007, 12% of carrier revenue is data services and only 16% of
users access the web on those devices once a month.

• 1994, 5% of people surveyed said that they were willing to pay fees
for web access. 97% of people were using Mosiac and a text browser,
Lynx was #2

• Late 1994, 18% using Netscape and 71% said they might pay
depending on cost and quality.

The Hope for Mobile

What is the
likelihood of
exponential
growth for the
Internet on Mobile
Devices?

Mobile Web Doubled in 2008
Jan 08 Jan 09

10821
Daily
22369

10312
Weekly
19283

36870
Ever in Month
63182

0 17500 35000 52500 70000

Unique Users (000s)
http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2752

Mobile Internet to Grow Despite Recession

Average intended usage increase over the next 24 months

U.S. Europe

Current Users 58% 55%

Non-Users 27% 28%

http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/53.cfm

Top Five Services Non-users Intend
to Start Using in the Next 24 Months

U.S. Europe

Mobile Internet 49% 34%

MMS 38% 39%

Uploading Photos 34% 27%

Software/app download 30% 30%

Email 28% 32%

Surprise Story of 2008

Flickr photo by Drift Words: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/

Flickr photo by Civisi: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/

Web 2.0 iPhone App Store
Web-based Apps Native Apps
Services & Mashups Few APIs between apps
Software as Service No Recurring Revenue
Cloud Computing Local Storage

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/top_10_web_platforms_of_2008.php

What makes the App Store successful?
Carriers App Store

Open to anyone
Openness Closed, Seek permission
who signs agreement

Entry Cost Thousands of dollars $99

Revenue Split 60/40 to 50/50 70/30

Restrictions Many Few

Releases Difﬁcult, Timely 1 to 2 weeks

Micropayments Inconsistent iTunes for every phone

30 million
devices
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123

25,000
apps
http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266

800 million
downloads
http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm

Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores

Ringtone Apps

(FYI: Justin’s app is out soon. GymRat. $4.99)

http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170
http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/
http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/

Ringtone Apps

15000

11250

7500

3750

0
0 1.99 3.99 5.99 7.99 9.99 11.99 13.99 15.99+

http://148apps.com/10000

Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales:
$32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue
Dapple

http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/

Throwaway Apps

http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Pinch Media’s Conclusions

•Users stop using the average applications
quickly.

•Long-term audiences are generally 1% of
total downloads

•Paid apps retain users longer, but still
steep drop o.

http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

25,000 Apps

Findability?

http://148apps.com/10000

iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market
Symbian RIM Windows Mobile iPhone Linux
Palm OS Other
20000

17949

15000

10000

7443

5000
4714
4079
3195
0
327 437
Q4 2008 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Units
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112

Symbian Windows Mobile

Objective C WebOS
C

Dalvik
Java ME
Palm
Visual Basic
C++

.NET Compact
BREW
Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622size=o

Google Mobile — App Challenges
• Pressure from CEO for rapid releases

• 10+ platforms to support

• Over 100 dierent builds

http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/

Mobile = Rapid Convergence

• PDAs — In 2000, there were 10 million PDAs sold. Today, PDAs sell
less than 10 million per year while smartphones sell more than 120
million annually.

• Digital Cameras — In 2006, there were 450 million cameraphones sold
compared to almost 90 million standalone cameras.

• MP3 Players — “At the end of 2004, Apple’s iPod had held an 80%
market share of the global MP3 player market.” In 2005, handset
manufacturers got serious about adding music to their phones. By
2006, musicphone sales of 309 million dwarfed iPod sales of 46
million units.

BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue

Flickr photo by MarkKelley: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/markkelley/1022720488/

Thank You for Your Time!

Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userﬁrstweb.com • Twitter: @grigs
Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (18)

Similaire à State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland

Similaire à State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland (20)

Plus de Jason Grigsby

Plus de Jason Grigsby (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland